Today’s high interest rates won’t last forever. Discover how to maximize what you earn on your savings before a coming Fed cut pushes rates down. https://t.co/WXs3MTKeP4 ...

Should your clients be buying the dip in tech after the sell off we saw yesterday and the ongoing dip we're seeing in European defence names. Yeah. So we leaned still in on the bullish side when it comes to I am not going to lie on on that growth is long duration assets they tend to like fed cutting interest rates.We think they're going to do the same this time around. When we look at technology is still the sector that we expect to see very close to a 20% earnings growth from this year, outpacing by five. ...

New Zealand’s central bank cut interest rates to a three-year low and signaled further easing, saying the economy has stalled https://t.co/ke0WMx1Ogt ...

Market Trends & Expectations - Traders are betting on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by more than 0.25% next month [1]

Core Viewpoint - The second-quarter earnings season is concluding, with over 90% of S&P 500 companies reporting results, and the retail sector is prominently featured this week [1] Company Performance: Home Depot - Home Depot reported its second consecutive earnings miss, with adjusted EPS of $4.68 compared to expectations of $4.71, reflecting a 0.64% miss, and total revenues of $45.28 billion versus $45.51 billion, a 0.5% miss [6] - The company experienced a 0.86% increase in net income year-over-year and a 4.9% increase in revenues compared to the second quarter of 2024 [6] - Comparable sales increased by 1.0%, with U.S. comparable sales rising by 1.4%, although foreign exchange rates negatively impacted total comparable sales by approximately 40 basis points [7] - Home Depot reaffirmed its guidance for total sales growth of approximately 2.8% for the fiscal year, with comparable sales growth of 1.0% and an expected adjusted EPS decline of 2% to $15.24 [9] - The company is facing challenges from elevated interest rates and a slowdown in the home improvement sector, which has seen reduced demand due to high mortgage rates and rising home prices [4][10] Industry Context: Home Improvement Sector - The home improvement sector is currently ranked in the bottom 16% of approximately 250 Zacks Ranked Industries, with most stocks considered overvalued and expected to experience below-average earnings growth [3] - The sector has been adversely affected by a broader operating environment characterized by high interest rates and weak discretionary spending, leading to a slowdown in large-scale home remodeling projects [4] - Despite the challenges, the aging housing stock and rising home equity levels are expected to support long-term demand in the home improvement market [18] Upcoming Performance: Lowe's - Lowe's is expected to report second-quarter earnings of $4.24 per share, a 3.41% improvement year-over-year, with revenues anticipated to climb 1.47% to $23.93 billion [12][15] - The company has not missed earnings estimates since 2019 and has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 3.22% [13] - Lowe's has expanded its reach to larger professional customers through the acquisition of Artisan Design Group, which is expected to enhance its capabilities in new home construction and large-scale renovation projects [16]

My next guest argues, however, that there is a strong case to skip cutting rates next month. For more, let's bring in Michael Darta, chief economist, macro strategist at Roth Capital Partners. Uh, Michael, why are you wary perhaps or don't think that it is the appropriate time to cut in September.>> Thanks for having me on, David. Look, I think they're going to cut 25 basis points in September. It's pretty much fully priced at this juncture.Uh but there was a much stronger case a year ago in my opinion beca ...

You always should give everybody a Ford, everybody the presumption of good faith in the same way that whenever somebody is in trial, in trial, they're innocent until proven guilty. So I can't read Scott Besson's minds. I don't know whether he is consciously spouting nonsense, consciously piling on to the Fed, Federal Reserve presidents and saying stuff that he knows isn't true.But what he's doing, ultimately, this is just not okay. There is a I dislike the word gaslighting, but the comment he made to our ow ...

Economic Outlook - The analysis considers scenarios reminiscent of the 1990s with low inflationary growth or President Trump's first term [1] - Higher interest rates are creating distributional issues, especially in housing and for lower-income households with high credit card debt [1] - A significant capex boom is underway, driven by AI and tax policies [1] Housing Market - Home building is currently struggling [2] - Constraining home building could lead to inflation in the future [2] - A rate cut could stimulate a boom or pickup in home building, potentially lowering prices in the future [3]

Consumer & Market Trends - Home Depot's primary consumers are homeowners, typically dual-income households with higher earnings, experiencing strong employment and wage growth [1] - Consumers are still spending, but a shift is observed towards smaller ticket categories, while larger ticket discretionary categories are experiencing weakness [2] - High interest rates are causing consumers to delay larger, finance-dependent projects like kitchen and bath renovations [3] Impact of Interest Rates - The industry is trying to determine if project activity is delayed or permanently derailed due to high rates [4] - Anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts is expected to unlock pent-up demand for larger projects [5] - Lower rates and increased housing market activity are projected to boost demand for big-ticket projects [6] Home Depot's Strategy - Home Depot is positioning itself to capitalize on the re-emergence of demand for large projects, particularly through professional contractors [6]

Market Overview & Trends - Home Depot's sales momentum is lacking due to less accommodative interest rates, impacting the home improvement channel [2][3] - Summer-like weather helped Home Depot's sales growth slightly during the fiscal quarter [4] - Delays in large renovations are observed, with expectations of lower rates as a trigger for project commencement [9] - A 5% handle on the 30-year fixed mortgage rate could unlock significant remodeling demand [11] Company Performance & Strategy - Home Depot is managing wealth and is a well-run company in a solid sector, but lacks sales momentum [2] - Home Depot benefits from pent-up demand in the US housing market, which is expected to resurge as rates move lower [7] - Home Depot is making better and bigger moves in the complex pro business [15] Investment Recommendation & Valuation - Oppenheimer views Lowe's as a better investment play due to more operational slack and a wider valuation gap compared to Home Depot [13][15] - Lowe's operations are now very close to Home Depot's, but there's still a little more slack there [14] - Despite improvements at Lowe's, the valuation gap between Lowe's and Home Depot has remained very wide, making Lowe's cheap [15] Interest Rate Impact - Lower mortgage rates are expected to re-accelerate sales at Home Depot [7] - A move towards a 5% handle on the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is anticipated to unlock remodeling demand [11] - Lower HELOC (Home Equity Line of Credit) rates, influenced by Fed moves, could fuel remodeling demand by allowing homeowners to tap into historic equity [12]