Monetary Policy - 美联储理事 Michelle Bowman 警告称，如果劳动力市场疲软，决策者可能会落后，必须降息 [1]

And joining us right now to talk about the Fed's recent quarter rate point rate cut, the central bank's future rate path and much more. We want to bring in Jim Bullard. He is the former St.Louis Fed president who's now dean of the business school at Purdue University. He's also in the running as the next Fed chair and as we heard from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant last week. They had a very good and productive meeting recently.Jim, thanks for being here this morning. Um, good to see you. What did you thi ...

A few things are happening here. So since September of last year, one year later, the Fed has now reduced rates by 125 basis points. Yep.And that brings us to 4 and a quarter 4 to 4 and a quarter. The Fed no doubt will go to a neutral rate, which is 3%. So they have 125 basis points to go.So only at the halfway mark. So that's the first thing. It's only eased one time this year.But they have a lot more to go because jobs are slowing. And more importantly, the neutral rate is much lower than the rate we have ...

[Music] Welcome to Market Overtime. I'm Nicole Pedalites. The Federal Reserve has delivered its first rate cut of the year, a widely expected 25 basis points cut that had broad support.On this episode, we'll examine the FOMC announcement, Jerome Powell's commentary, and what this all means for your portfolio, as well as investigate AI. Of course, we've had so much momentum with AI, but when does it fizzle out. When do some of the details within AI and fundamentals really matter.And we bring in an expert for ...

🇺🇸 JUST IN: Markets price a 78.6% chance the Fed cuts rates to 3.50%–3.75% by the Dec. 10 meeting. https://t.co/sgU5yU5zXE ...

Market Trends & Consumer Behavior - The share of new cars costing more than $50,000 has almost doubled compared to six years ago, indicating a shift towards higher-priced vehicles [1] - The share of buyers with incomes over $150,000 made up 12% of all car purchases in 2025, significantly larger than other income groups [8] - There are more vehicles for sale above $100,000 than below $30,000 in the US market [9] - Consumer sentiment among high-income adults has shown recent decreases, potentially signaling a shift in the high-end market [27] Financial & Economic Factors - Dealer profits increased by 20% in Q2 2025, but economists are concerned about the reliance on a smaller share of consumers [2] - The average monthly loan payment was $749 in Q2 2025, almost $200 more than in 2019 [4] - Approximately 15% of monthly car payments, including leases and loans, exceed $1,000 [5] - Tariffs are adding up to $5,700 to the price of each imported vehicle, disproportionately impacting lower entry-level models [11] - Auto loan delinquencies have increased year over year since 2021 [23] Industry Dynamics & Challenges - Automakers prioritized higher-priced vehicles during the chip crisis to maximize profits [10] - Rising interest rates and a credit crunch are pricing many people out of the new vehicle market [17][18] - The regulatory environment and homologation requirements contribute to the high cost of vehicles [6] - Chinese manufacturers may offer a source for less expensive vehicles, despite US tariffs [30][31]

Joining us now for a look at the US economy and the Fed, Larry Lindseay, president, CEO of the Lindsey Group, former National Economic Council director. He's been mentioned as a possible uh Fed chair nominee. Uh it's been a while. Uh Larry, it's good to see you. >> Good to be here.>> You worry, and we'll just talk near-term about uh about the Fed. You worry that perhaps like uh 2024 that if you cut on the short end that might not be translated into lower rates on the long end might actually be uh actually c ...

Market Overview - Futures are slightly lower at the start of the trading day, but there are lingering bullish tones in the market [1][5] - The market has experienced a significant run recently, indicating potential fatigue in pre-market futures [5] Earnings and Economic Data - Key earnings reports are expected this week, including Micron after the bell tomorrow and Costco on Thursday [2] - Important economic data will be released, including PMIs, durable goods, GDP revisions, jobless claims, and personal income and outlays [3][4] Federal Reserve Insights - A steady flow of Federal Reserve speakers is anticipated this week, discussing recent interest rate decisions and economic outlooks [4][10] - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in October is currently around 91.9%, with market expectations heavily influenced by upcoming economic data [12][14] Inflation and Labor Market - The consensus for the year-over-year PCE inflation rate is expected to tick up slightly to between 2.6% and 2.7%, while the core PCE is projected to remain flat at around 2.9% [13] - Ongoing labor market data will be crucial for future discussions on interest rates, with more job-related data expected in early October [14] Gold and Risk Sentiment - Gold prices are rising, attributed to a risk-off sentiment in the market and a weaker dollar [6][7] - The VIX is higher, indicating increased market volatility, while yields on 10-year notes have drifted lower [8][9]

Bostic spoke about the outlook for the labor market, inflation and interest rates during an interview with Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos. ...

Investment Philosophy - Investing in exceptional businesses capable of consistently growing profits is key, regardless of interest rate fluctuations [1] Long-Term Perspective - The long-term success of investments hinges on owning businesses that can compound profits across various economic conditions [1]