Yeah, I think uh volatility needs to be seen um in the long run, not as risk uh es especially when you have a 16-year data set for something like this and you can you can you can see the volatility overlaid with the overall trend like this is a unique perspective. Um and so uh you can h you actually have these opportunities, right, to take massive advantage of of uh temporary explosive exponential growth rates. But what I also try to hammer home is this this idea of hodling, right.So so Bitcoin spend it tur ...

Market Trends - HSBC strategists suggest that relentless dollar-selling is resembling a bubble [1] - The dollar-selling bubble is expected to eventually pop [1]

Bitcoin Price Prediction - To reach $1 million, Bitcoin needs to double its price a little over three times [1][2] - The current doubling time for Bitcoin is approximately two years, but it is gradually increasing [1] - Based on the parallel core trend, Bitcoin could reach $1 million around 2033, potentially sooner with market bubbles [2] Volatility Analysis - The standard deviation of the core Bitcoin price trend is about 20% [3] - The standard deviation of Bitcoin bubbles has significantly decreased from over 100% to approximately 37% [3] - The volatility of Bitcoin bubbles is decreasing roughly as a reciprocal relationship to Bitcoin's age [4] Forecast Methodology - The forecast method considers both the parallel core mean and the bubble mean, along with the standard deviation size for the bubble [5] - The right tail of the bubble, specifically one and two standard deviations above the mean, indicates potential extreme prices [5][6] - There's an estimated 8% chance of Bitcoin price being one standard deviation above the bubble mean and only about a 1% chance of being two standard deviations above [6] Power Law Model - The ratio of price increase for the power core can be calculated by taking the inverse of Bitcoin's age, adding one, and raising that to the power law index of 58% [8] - At Bitcoin age 245 years, the parallel core median line is projected to be around $1 million [9][10]

Market Overview - The report title suggests the presence of a significant "bubble," implying potential market instability or overvaluation [1] Potential Risks - The term "big beautiful bubble" indicates a possible impending market correction or crash [1]

Market Sentiment & Retail Investor Activity - Emerging signs of market froth are observed, including the comeback of SPACs and a strong return of retail investors [2] - Post "Liberation Day", retail investors bought approximately $34 billion into US equities [2] - Retail investor presence in the option markets has returned strongly [2] - Barclays' euphoria indicator, tracking over a thousand stocks and their option markets, is at levels comparable to the meme stock frenzy and the dot-com era, signaling retail investors chasing upside [3][4] Market Focus & Potential Risks - The current euphoric sentiment is more limited to specific market segments like crypto and some AI growth stories [6] - Single stock names like Nvidia, Tesla, and MicroStrategy have gained significant popularity, especially among retail investors, offering leverage [6][7] - These leveraged products can lead to convex moves on the downside if conditions worsen [8] Trading Strategies & Risk Management - Trading bubbles is difficult to time and can be risky [8] - Utilizing options can help navigate markets in the current environment [9] - Options can be used to ride the wave while limiting downside risk, or to bet against "hot" stocks identified by the euphoria indicator [9]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market has experienced volatility with a bearish trend, particularly affecting the Magnificent 7 technology companies, including Nvidia, which has seen significant stock price drops recently [1][3]. Group 1: Nvidia's Stock Performance - Nvidia shares have become a major concern, experiencing a significant drop of 5.58% on March 26, trading at $113.96 [2][3]. - There are fears that Nvidia's stock may fall below $100, which would mark a significant decline from its historical performance [5]. - The company's market capitalization has reached trillions, indicating its influence on other major stocks [2]. Group 2: External Pressures and Market Conditions - The technology sector is facing challenges due to the ongoing trade war initiated by President Donald Trump, which has heightened recessionary fears [7]. - Concerns about a potential bubble in global data center infrastructure, a key revenue source for Nvidia, have been raised by industry leaders [8]. - New environmental regulations in China may restrict Nvidia's ability to sell some of its most profitable chips, further impacting its market position [9].