Market Outlook - 314 Research maintains its S&P 500 target of 6,800 for 2025, approximately 2% from current levels [1] - The equity market experienced two positive developments from the Fed this week, supporting a continued long position in the bull market [2] - A potential growth scare, with an estimated one-third chance of occurring in the coming months, could lead to a 7-8% pullback in the equity market [9] - In a growth scare scenario, the 10-year Treasury yield could potentially drop below 350 basis points (35%), although this is not the base case [11] Fed Policy & Economic Indicators - The market had priced in more rate cuts than the Fed signaled in June, setting a high bar for the Fed to clear [3] - Instances where the Fed moves slightly towards market expectations after high expectations have historically been positive for equities in the following quarter [4] - The Fed is effectively lowering the real Fed funds rate (nominal Fed funds rate minus inflation projections) across 2025-2027 [6] - The Fed may be more concerned about the labor market than they are letting on, potentially anticipating a larger left tail risk [16][17] Portfolio Strategy - 314 Research is pressing longs into year-end, paired with an overweight bond position [10] - Investors should prepare their portfolios for potential risks, particularly related to growth concerns [17] - During a growth scare, equities tend to experience increased volatility, with potential drawdowns, while bonds rally [9][16]

Market Trends - Small-cap stocks have joined the US equities rally after a period of underperformance that began during the pandemic [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite disappointing job reports and ongoing inflation, equity markets continue to perform well, indicating resilience in the face of economic challenges [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent job reports have been described as uninspiring, suggesting a slowdown in employment growth [1] - Inflation remains persistent, contributing to economic uncertainty [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Equities have shown strong performance, defying expectations set by the lackluster job reports [1] - The first trading day following the August jobs report was characterized by continued equity gains, highlighting market confidence [1]

This Week’s Macro Watch (UTC) 📊Stay sharp, as they might swing both equities & tokenized stocks:🔹 Sep 16, 12:30 — US Retail Sales (Aug) +0.6% m/m🔹 Sep 16, 13:15 — US Industrial Production (Aug)🔹 Sep 17, 18:00 — FOMC Rate Decision🔹 Sep 17, 18:30 — Powell Presser🔹 Sep 18, 12:30 — Jobless Claims & Philly Fed (Sep)Markets are lining up for moves, how are you positioning your trades on #Bitget?👉 https://t.co/jlywC2WqwA ...

Joining us now, Ali Debage, uh Janice Henderson, uh investors chief investment officer and just beautiful orange stuff everywhere. Nothing to do with Bitcoin. Uh but the the little and is Janice Henderson aligned with its clients.It is indeed. Yeah. Okay.Yeah. We pride ourselves with working with our clients and delivering for their their missions. And I'm excited to talk to you about something we don't always talk about and that is uh fixed income. you want to talk about fixed income or or you absolutely d ...

Core Insights - Alternative investments are gaining renewed interest from advisors and investors seeking options beyond equities and fixed income [1] Group 1 - The resurgence of alternative investments indicates a shift in investor preferences towards diversification [1] - Historical forms of alternative investments are being re-evaluated for their potential benefits in current market conditions [1]

Market Trends & Dynamics - US equities are rallying, with some reaching all-time highs, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and softer inflation data [1] - The US Treasury yield curve is undergoing a twist steepening, with short-term yields falling and long-term yields remaining stable or edging higher [1] - The US dollar is weakening amid the yield curve dynamics [2] Investment Opportunities & Potential Risks - Bond and currency markets appear to be signaling a more cautious or mixed outlook compared to equities, highlighting potential cracks that equities seem to be overlooking [1][2] - Concerns over inflation, fiscal deficits, and rising Treasury supply contribute to the stability or increase in long-term yields [1] Financial Performance & Indicators - The spread between the 2-year and 30-year Treasury yields has widened by approximately 44 basis points since the start of 2025, reaching post-2022 highs [2]

Blockchain Adoption by Ford - Ford believes blockchains need to sustain global capital markets demand over the next 5 years [1] - Ford is evaluating whether blockchains can handle the total daily transaction volume of global capital markets [1] Global Capital Market Transaction Volume - Total daily transaction volume in global capital markets ranges from approximately 400 million to 700 million, with peaks near 1 billion [1] - Equities account for 120 million to 150 million trades per day [3] - Bonds account for 8 million to 10 million trades per day [3] - Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) account for over 1 million trades per day [3] - Derivatives account for 60 million to 100 million contracts per day [3] - Foreign exchange (FX) accounts for 250 million to 500 million transactions per day [3] Solana's Capacity - Solana currently handles 65,000 transactions per second (TPS) with sub-second finality [2] - Solana has a capacity of over 56 billion transactions per day [2] - Solana's capacity is sufficient to settle all global capital market flows currently [2]

ETF Flows & Market Trends - Year-to-date ETF flows exceed $820 billion [1] - SPY saw a double-digit spike after Oracle earnings, while QQQ did not experience the same due to Oracle's absence in the index [1] - ARK Innovation Fund experienced the top inflows this week [1] - GLDM (Spider Gold Mini Shares) is seeing the second most inflows of all ETFs in September [3] - PPLT (Aberdeen Physical Platinum ETF) is seeing strong inflows in recent weeks [3] Investment Strategies & Recommendations - Investors should diversify away from equities by playing the gold rally [2] - LDM (gold exposure) offers diversification outside of equities and fixed income at 10 basis points [2] - Investors are embracing gold due to global uncertainty and potential shifts in Federal Reserve monetary policy in 2026 [3] - VTI (Vanguard Total Market ETF) and BND (Vanguard Total Bond ETF) followed ARK in terms of inflows this week [2]

We're celebrating 30 years of Squawkbox this week. Uh this morning we're also reflecting on September 11th. Our next guest was in lower Manhattan on that fateful morning.Joining us right now is former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfine. Uh this is quite a morning because there's a lot of things that we were talking about Charlie Kirk 911. No, it's kind of it's, you know, I don't want the whole conversation to be so sober, but it's a sober moment to reflect on.And of course I was uh downtown downtown all day, ...