Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the macroverse. Today we're going to talk about the recent labor market reports this week and how it is affecting markets. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. If you're curious about this stuff uh more timely, we do have the ITC macro Twitter account that you can follow along with. I'll also tweet stuff out from m ...

#数据 美国7月白人失业率从3.6% 上升至3.7%非裔失业率从6.8%升至7.2%，为2021年10月以来的最高水平亚裔失业率从3.5%升至3.9%。西班牙裔失业率从4.8%上升至5.0%。 https://t.co/S4t0CtsfwE ...

Labor Market & Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve (Fed) closely monitors the unemployment rate as a key statistic influencing monetary policy [1] - An unexpected rise in the unemployment rate, potentially to 4-6% or 4-7%, could prompt the Fed to consider a rate cut due to its dual mandate [1] - Unlike other central banks, the Fed's dual mandate makes it particularly sensitive to changes in the unemployment rate [1] Economic Impact of Tariffs & AI - The full impact of tariffs is yet to be realized, with final outlines of deals and sectoral tariffs still unfolding [2] - Companies are increasingly deploying AI, leading to CEOs reporting the ability to limit or reduce hiring [2]

We got a very disappointing number here that this is going to get Wall Street's attention. 73,000 jobs created during the month of July. The forecast, as you said, was for 104, and we came down from 147 last month.Looking to see what the revisions are right now. The three month revisions add to payrolls by 35,000. So that has to be factored in.Private payrolls, 83,000. They were 74,000 last month. So it looks like government has subtracted from the overall level of jobs and that would be a rebound or a goin ...

Employment Trends - U.S nonfarm payrolls increased by 73,000 in July [1] - Private sector added 83,000 jobs [1] - Unemployment rate rose to 4.2% [1] Data Revisions - May job gains were revised down to 19,000 [1] - June job gains were revised down to 14,000 [1] - Total of 258,000 jobs were cut from prior estimates due to revisions [1]

💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.2%EXPECTATIONS: 4.2% ...

BREAKING:🇺🇸 US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE CAME IN AT 4.2%EXPECTATIONS: 4.2% ...

Monetary Policy Stance - The Federal Reserve decided to hold interest rates steady for the fifth consecutive meeting, indicating a pause in rate adjustments [1] - Two Fed governors dissented, favoring interest rate cuts, marking the first time in over 30 years that two governors have dissented at a meeting [1] - The debate centers on whether tariff-related inflation should be treated as a one-off event or a persistent pressure [1] - The Fed is closely monitoring incoming data, including inflation numbers and jobs reports, to make future decisions regarding interest rates [5][6] - The Fed aims to manage inflation efficiently without causing unnecessary damage to the labor market [4] Economic Assessment - The US economy is considered to be in a solid position, with a low unemployment rate and a labor market at or near maximum employment [1] - Elevated uncertainty persists despite the economy's solid position [1] Future Outlook - The Fed has not made any decisions about potential interest rate cuts in September and will evaluate data to determine if the federal funds rate is appropriate [5] - The Fed acknowledges the risk of moving too soon (potentially not fixing inflation) or too late (potentially damaging the labor market) [4]

Economic Outlook - The economy is in a solid position with a low unemployment rate and a labor market at or near maximum employment [1] - Inflation has been running somewhat above the 2% longer-run objective [1][3] - There's also downside risk to the labor market [5] Monetary Policy - The Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave the policy interest rate unchanged [2] - The current stance of monetary policy is believed to be well-positioned to respond to potential economic developments [2] - The policy rate is characterized as modestly restrictive [3] - Financial conditions are accommodative [4] - The economy is not performing as though restrictive policy were holding it back inappropriately [4] Future Considerations - In coming months, a good amount of data will help inform the assessment of the balance of risks and the appropriate setting of the federal funds rate [5]

Federal Reserve Policy & Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is in no rush to adjust interest rates due to uncertainty about the economy, inflation, and the labor market [3] - The unemployment rate remains stable, similar to the previous summer [1][2][5] - The Fed aims to prevent any rise in inflation from becoming persistent, emphasizing the importance of keeping inflation expectations in check through patience [3] - The market anticipates rate cuts in the coming year, regardless of economic data, potentially influenced by a new Fed chair [13] - All Federal Open Market Committee members expect interest rates to be lower by the end of next year [17] Labor Market Dynamics - Labor demand growth is slowing, but the labor market hasn't loosened because the unemployment rate is unchanged [5] - Both labor supply and labor demand have slowed, with immigration policy being a contributing factor to the slowdown in labor supply [2][5] - Payroll employment growth has decelerated, which could become problematic if the trend continues [4] Tariff Impact & Trade Policy - The impact of tariffs on the economy is uncertain, particularly regarding inflation and business fixed investment [3][10] - A hypothetical 18%-20% tariff rate is compared to the economic tensions of the 1930s [6] - The current tariff shock may be more significant than in the 1930s due to a higher share of imports in GDP [8] - Most economists believe that tariffs will eventually be passed through to consumers, with every 1% increase in tariffs as a percent of imports adding about 01% to the price level [11][12] - An increase from 25% to 17%-18% in tariffs on imports could raise the level of prices by about 05% [12]