Economic Outlook & Growth Drivers - The economy faces hurdles including government shutdowns affecting growth and delaying data collection [2] - "Prosec" (production for security) is a key positive thesis, focusing on domestic production in areas of national security interest like chips, data centers, AI, electricity, and rare earth minerals [3][4][5] - Tariffs are starting to impact earnings potential and may spread to consumers [6][7] - Tax cuts, tilted towards upper-end households, and deregulation are expected to inject cash into the economy in the first half of 2026 [9][10][11] - The dynamic properties inside the tax bill should facilitate 23% to 25% growth next year [14] Market & Investment Strategies - Companies are questioning spending on AI, which could drag on the economy if it slows [6][15] - The market and economy have diverged, with a "little i-shaped economy" where a small segment is doing well while the rest is just okay [16][17] - Fund manager surveys show bullish sentiment, but there's a disconnect with the real economy [19] - Tech companies may become more careful with spending plans [21] AI & Technology - Focus should shift from those working on AI to those working with AI, emphasizing adoption policies to drive productivity growth [24][25] - Data centers are driving significant debt issuance, estimated at $150 billion to $175 billion per year [30] - Governments are accelerating the development of AI value chains for economic and national security [52] - Sovereign AI is a key theme, with governments focusing on algorithms, critical minerals for semiconductors, and data [52][53] Crypto & Regulation - The Senate is considering the Clarity Act to provide a market structure for crypto in the US [33] - Banks are exploring stablecoins, which could lead to greater adoption and efficiency in the financial system [35][36] - Bitcoin is heavily influenced by leverage players, requiring new standards and safeguards [37][38][39] Trade & Geopolitics - Uncertainty around tariff policies is expected to continue, along with export controls and trade restrictions [42][43] - Companies are using scenario planning to manage geopolitical risks [46] - Geopolitical competition for resources like critical minerals and fresh water is a key story for 2026 [47][48] - Geopolitical competition around access to capital and the growing politization of capital allocation are reshaping the global financial system [50]

🚨 UPDATE: $BTC has become less volatile than Nvidia stock in 2025, with Bitwise citing BTC’s market maturation, rising institutional ownership, and ETF inflows as key drivers. https://t.co/ydoyfTcbDE ...

Uh, joining us now is Chris Murphy, Susuana's co-head of derivative strategy. I love illquid markets, Chris, because bigger price moves, more to talk about. >> You're right. You're right.I mean, it could be more exciting at the end of the year. We hope it is. I mean, I'm stuck here most of the days until the end of the year, so I wouldn't mind some some excitement, but yeah, probably the highest volume day of the year uh till the end of the year.And then with those um expiration notional stats, uh sure it i ...

🚨 ALERT: $60M liquidated in last one hour as volatility spikes again. https://t.co/Mjtq4vjaR3 ...

🎯 Key Takeaways:🔹 Set clear stop losses to protect capital while volatility resets.🔹 Track upcoming macro events for potential catalysts, Trump claims new Fed Chair will slash rates.🔹 Touch grass, review performance, recalibrate strategy for the next rotation.📊 Stay disciplined, stay informed!https://t.co/sazVmSR6hE6/6 ...

Most people are taught to avoid volatility. They hide from it. They want something that's safe and stable.That's not how you drive returns. In order to capture returns, you need asymmetry. If you need asymmetry, you need volatility.So, I recently saw CZ, the founder of Binance. He had a great tweet where he said, "If you were ever jealous of people buying crypto on the cheap and being able to hold them through the cycles, think about what they did in moments like this." Obviously, cryptocurrencies have fall ...

Market Trends & Investment Opportunities - The discussion revolves around the attractiveness of Japanese bond yields for investors, particularly in comparison to US Treasury yields [1][2] - The benchmark rate for Japan is at 75 basis points (0.75%), compared to the US rate of 350 to 375 basis points (3.50% to 3.75%), and the Japanese 10-year bond yield is around 2% versus the US 10-year bond yield over 4% [2] - A weaker dollar is considered beneficial for US companies, especially exporters of services, enhancing their competitiveness [4] - Central banks globally are competing against the dollar, partly driven by gold purchases [6] - US advantages include innovation, accountability, transparency, and governance, attracting private investors and corporations to US assets [6] - Global diversification of portfolios is returning, after a period of concentration in US assets [6] Potential Risks & Volatility - Concerns exist about potential rate cuts in the US leading to a weaker dollar, which could deter foreign investment and hedging activities [5] - Quadruple witching day, with $7 trillion in notional option exposure expiring, including $5 trillion tied to the S&P, raises concerns about market volatility [7] - Despite potential trepidation, the US market has demonstrated a remarkable ability to digest witching Fridays due to its liquidity and opportunities [8]

volatility is a gift to the faithful ...

🚨 UPDATE: Roughly $23 billion in $BTC options expire next Friday, driving volatility higher as implied volatility nears 45 percent and pricing continues to lean toward downside risk. https://t.co/3pDEi0Al1A ...

😨 Commentary is mainly showing fear after Bitcoin bounced to $90.2K yesterday, and then quickly retraced to $84.8K. Bearish commentary like #selling, #sold, #bearish, or #lower are notably higher across X, Reddit, & Telegram.📊 Historically, it's a strong sign when retail is pushing the bearish narrative harder than the bullish. Prices move opposite to the crowd's expectations, so this volatility being marked by fear is a good signal for those who are patient enough to ride this out.🔖 Track & compare the soc ...