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《联合全面行动计划》(JCPOA)
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欧洲三国能否在中东危机中扮演调解者?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-21 16:06
Group 1 - The meeting between E3 (Germany, France, and the UK) and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Geneva aims to prevent a full-scale war in the Middle East and is the first direct dialogue with Iran since Israel's airstrikes [2] - E3 seeks to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) by requiring Iran to accept International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) oversight of its nuclear program and reduce its ballistic missile stockpile [2] - Iran insists that it will only engage in diplomatic solutions if Israel halts its military strikes against Iran [2] Group 2 - US President Trump dismisses European diplomatic efforts, stating that Iran "does not want to talk to Europe" and emphasizes that the US is the only nation capable of changing the course of the war [2] - Despite the military and economic capabilities of the E3, their influence is significantly less than that of the US, leading to a marginalization of Europe's "goodwill mediation" role [2] - There are internal divisions among the E3 regarding their stance on Israel, with Germany being the most supportive, while the UK and France have taken more critical positions [2] Group 3 - The future of the Iran nuclear deal is bleak, as Iran has gradually resumed nuclear activities since the US unilaterally withdrew from the agreement in 2018 [3] - Experts believe that without US intervention, the likelihood of Europe reviving the agreement is very low, and the positions of China and Russia also affect international consensus on the issue [3] - The UN Security Council struggles to promote a ceasefire due to divisions among the US, Russia, and China, with experts suggesting that only military defeat or significant external intervention can lead to peace in the Middle East [3]