新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-02 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20780元/吨，较上一交易日持平，长江A00铝现货升贴水较上一 交易日下跌30元/吨至20元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20560元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下跌50元/ 吨至-180元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20690元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下跌25元/吨至-45元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-07-01日沪铝主力合约开于20555元/吨，收于20635元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨85元/ 吨，涨幅0.41%，最高价达20640元/吨，最低价达到20505元/吨。全天交易日成交134634手，较上一交易日减 少33203手，全天交易日持仓283099手，较上一交易日增加10693手。 库存方面，截止2025-06-30，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存46.8万吨。截止2025-07-01，LME铝库存34.5 吨，较前一交易日增加550吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-07-01 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3075元/吨，山东价格录得3080元/吨，广西价格录得 3180元/吨， ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-01 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20780元/吨，较上一交易日下跌110元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日下跌30元/吨至50元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20580元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下 跌50元/吨至-130元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20690元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下跌15元/吨至-20元 /吨。 氧化铝现货市场表现坚挺 铝期货方面：2025-06-30日沪铝主力合约开于20575元/吨，收于20580元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨5元/吨， 涨幅0.02%，最高价达20620元/吨，最低价达到20450元/吨。全天交易日成交167837手，较上一交易日减少36447 手，全天交易日持仓272406手，较上一交易日增加1837手。 库存方面，截止2025-06-30，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存46.8万吨。截止2025-06-30，LME铝库存345750 吨，较前一交易日增加550吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-06-30 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3075元/吨，山东价格录得3080 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The market has seen adjustments in hot sectors, with cyclical commodities like coking coal, aluminum, and Brent crude oil performing well due to the Middle East crisis affecting global commodity supply [2] - The North China 50 index has adjusted, influenced by discussions around micro-cap stock trading congestion, with cautious investors taking action [2] - A weekly review of A-shares shows bank stocks leading in gains, while sectors like beauty care, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and social services have seen declines [2] Group 2: Middle East Risk - The Middle East crisis is currently limited to Iran, but concerns are growing about the potential for escalation following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities [3] - Predictions suggest that if Iran expands its attacks and blocks the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could surge to $120-130 per barrel, leading to high global inflation and reduced manufacturing profits [3] - Analysis indicates that U.S. actions may be politically motivated to alleviate internal pressures, with a focus on avoiding ground troop deployment [3] Group 3: China Asset Revaluation - The recent Lujiazui Forum indicated a policy tone favoring openness, which could release policy dividends for the revaluation of Chinese assets [5] - Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in China has shown a decline, with actual foreign investment amounting to 358.19 billion yuan in the first five months of 2025, down 13.2% year-on-year [5][6] - The structure of FDI shows positive trends in high-tech industries, with significant growth in sectors like e-commerce services and aerospace manufacturing [6] Group 4: Tax Revenue Insights - National public budget revenue for January to May 2025 was 96,623 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, with land use rights revenue down 11.9% [7] - The probability of a real estate market resurgence is low, as indicated by declining property-related tax revenues [7] - Securities transaction stamp duty increased by 52.4% year-on-year, reflecting heightened market activity and the importance of the stock market in asset revaluation [8] Group 5: Non-Tax Revenue and Market Dynamics - Non-tax revenue grew by 6.2% year-on-year, indicating a shift in focus from external factors to internal reforms and adjustments in interests [9] - The government is increasingly normalizing its behavior in revenue collection, which is crucial for market vitality and asset revaluation [9] Group 6: Long-Term Asset Revaluation - While external risk premiums suggest a foundation for asset revaluation in China, internal conditions still require improvement for a complete revaluation [10] - The restructuring of international order and adjustments in China's leading industries present ongoing investment opportunities [11]

美国总统特朗普在1月的就职演讲中表示"美军的成功不在于参战"，并将乌克兰及加沙地区的 和平斡旋作为外交的重点。他在第一次任期内，还减少了驻伊拉克和阿富汗的美军人数。拒 绝"无休止战争"也是特朗普的一个卖点。 河浪武史："我们可以在几分钟内摧毁其他目标。伊朗将面临比过去八天更悲惨的局面"，特 朗普在1月的就职演讲中表示"美军的成功不在于参战"，但却在短短八天内发生了转变…… 河浪武史： 美国总统特朗普自己踏入了他自己极为厌恶的"无休止战争"。掌握了伊朗的制空 权，决定攻击核设施，但实际上是被希望将美国卷入中东事务的以色列巧妙地拖入了战争 中。 "我们可以在几分钟内摧毁其他目标。伊朗将面临比过去八天更悲惨的局面"，特朗普在6月21 日的演讲中提到了追加攻击的可能性。站在他身后的国务卿鲁比奥刚刚发表声明称"美国并未 参与对伊朗的攻击"。特朗普政府一直与中东冲突保持距离，却在短短八天内发生了转变。 以色列通过攻击各地代理势力等手段精心削弱了伊朗。通过将摧毁地下核设施这一最大功绩 赠予特朗普，最终将美国拖入。 若战争变成长期战争，存在四个风险。首先当然是中东战线的扩大。 另一个重大风险应该是没能彻底摧毁伊朗的核开发能力 ...

Group 1 - The meeting between E3 (Germany, France, and the UK) and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Geneva aims to prevent a full-scale war in the Middle East and is the first direct dialogue with Iran since Israel's airstrikes [2] - E3 seeks to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) by requiring Iran to accept International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) oversight of its nuclear program and reduce its ballistic missile stockpile [2] - Iran insists that it will only engage in diplomatic solutions if Israel halts its military strikes against Iran [2] Group 2 - US President Trump dismisses European diplomatic efforts, stating that Iran "does not want to talk to Europe" and emphasizes that the US is the only nation capable of changing the course of the war [2] - Despite the military and economic capabilities of the E3, their influence is significantly less than that of the US, leading to a marginalization of Europe's "goodwill mediation" role [2] - There are internal divisions among the E3 regarding their stance on Israel, with Germany being the most supportive, while the UK and France have taken more critical positions [2] Group 3 - The future of the Iran nuclear deal is bleak, as Iran has gradually resumed nuclear activities since the US unilaterally withdrew from the agreement in 2018 [3] - Experts believe that without US intervention, the likelihood of Europe reviving the agreement is very low, and the positions of China and Russia also affect international consensus on the issue [3] - The UN Security Council struggles to promote a ceasefire due to divisions among the US, Russia, and China, with experts suggesting that only military defeat or significant external intervention can lead to peace in the Middle East [3]

市场分析 现货市场方面，下游畏高情绪依旧，现货升水趋势性下滑。成本端，国产矿TC暂且平稳，当前锌矿进口窗口关闭， 国产矿相较进口矿更具优势，海外3季度进口矿TC仍在继续攀升。冶炼厂原料库存依旧充足，矿端不改上涨大趋势。 供应方面，冶炼利润保持稳定，长期供给高增速预期不改。消费表现超预期强势，锌合金开工率仍在增加，锌锭 社会库存仅小幅增加，或存在锌合金蓄水池现象导致。短期需警惕中东危机引发的能源扰动。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-20 现货市场颓势不改 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-30.04 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日下跌210元/吨至21990元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌15元/吨至140元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌220元/吨至21970 元/吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌25元/吨至120元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌210元 /吨至22000元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌15元/吨至150元/吨。 期货方面：2025-06-19沪锌主力合约开于21945元/吨，收于21865元/吨，较前一交 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-19 期货方面：2025-06-18沪锌主力合约开于21885元/吨，收于22060元/吨，较前一交易日上涨185元/吨，全天交易日 成交123695手，较前一交易日减少694手，全天交易日持仓97228手，较前一交易日减少8440手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22130元/吨，最低点达到21825元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-06-16，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为7.81万吨，较上周同期减少-0.36万吨。截止2025-06-18，LME 锌库存为128250吨，较上一交易日减少625吨。 市场分析 现货市场方面，下游畏高情绪较重，以消耗库存为主，现货市场成交较差，现货升水进一步下滑。成本端，国产 矿TC暂且平稳，当前锌矿进口窗口关闭，国产矿相较进口矿更具优势，海外3季度进口矿TC仍在继续攀升。冶炼 厂原料库存依旧充足，矿端不改上涨大趋势。供应方面，冶炼利润保持稳定，长期供给高增速预期不改。消费表 现超预期强势，锌合金开工率仍在增加，锌锭社会库存仍未形成趋势性累库，或存在锌合金蓄水池现象导致。短 期需警惕中东危机引发的能源扰动。 策略 单边：谨慎偏空。 套利：中性 ...