Report Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [7] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [7] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [7] Core Views - The weakening US dollar index has led to a strong rise in Shanghai aluminum prices, but downstream acceptance in the spot market is poor, and spot premiums have further declined. The expected increase in the Fed's interest rate cuts has slightly weakened the spot price of alumina, and smelting profits have expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton during the off - season. Consumption is showing marginal weakness, and inventory is expected to accumulate slightly in July [3]. - For alumina, the cost is stable, but producers are pessimistic about future prices, resulting in low procurement enthusiasm for bauxite. Despite smelting profits, weekly production and inventory are rising, and long - term supply pressure remains [4][5]. - Aluminum alloy is in the off - season. The price follows the aluminum price, and the tight supply of scrap and raw aluminum supports the price. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [6]. Summary by Category Aluminum Price and Inventory - On July 1, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,780 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,635 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton or 0.41% from the previous trading day. As of June 30, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 468,000 tons. As of July 1, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 34,500 tons, an increase of 550 tons from the previous day [1]. Market Analysis - The weakening US dollar index has pushed up Shanghai aluminum prices, but downstream acceptance is poor, and spot premiums have declined. The expected Fed rate cuts have slightly weakened alumina prices, expanding smelting profits. Supply is stable, and there is no significant impact from the Middle - East crisis on Iranian electrolytic aluminum. Consumption is weakening marginally, and inventory is expected to accumulate slightly in July, but the inventory level is still low historically [3]. Alumina Price and Inventory - On July 1, 2025, the SMM alumina prices in Shanxi, Shandong, and Guangxi were 3,075 yuan/ton, 3,080 yuan/ton, and 3,180 yuan/ton respectively, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton. The alumina main contract closed at 2,945 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton or 1.41% from the previous trading day. The alumina social inventory is rising, and the current alumina warehouse receipt is 21,000 tons, with the 07 - contract position at 51,000 tons [2][5]. Market Analysis - The cost of bauxite is stable, with the 3rd - quarter long - term contract price of Guinea's mainstream bauxite miners at 74 - 75 US dollars/ton, similar to the 2nd quarter. Alumina producers are pessimistic about future prices, resulting in low procurement enthusiasm for bauxite. Despite smelting profits, production and inventory are rising, and long - term supply pressure remains [4][5]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Inventory - On July 1, 2025, the purchase prices of Baotai's civil and mechanical raw aluminum were 15,300 yuan/ton and 15,400 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai ADC12 price was 19,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The total aluminum alloy inventory was 108,800 tons, a weekly increase of 21,000 tons [2]. Market Analysis - Aluminum alloy is in the off - season, and the price follows the aluminum price. The tight supply of scrap and raw aluminum supports the price. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [5] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [5] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The increase in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has led to a drop in the US dollar index and a rise in Shanghai aluminum prices. The alumina spot price has slightly weakened, and the smelting profit has expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton during the consumption off - season. Although the overall consumption shows a marginal weakening trend, the inventory increase is limited, and the absolute inventory value remains at a historically low level, with long - term attention to delivery risks [3]. - For alumina, the cost is stable, but the alumina plants are relatively pessimistic about the future price, resulting in low enthusiasm for bauxite procurement. The weekly production and inventory are both rising significantly, and the supply pressure at home and abroad remains unchanged in the long term. Currently, the delivery risk has been alleviated [4]. - The aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season, with limited price increase space in the spot market. The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the cost supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Price and Market Data - On June 30, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,780 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Zhongyuan A00 aluminum price was 20,580 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,690 yuan/ton [1]. - The opening price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract on June 30, 2025, was 20,575 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 20,580 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 167,837 lots and a position of 272,406 lots [1]. - As of June 30, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 468,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 345,750 tons, an increase of 550 tons from the previous day [1]. Market Analysis - The supply is stable in China, and the Middle East crisis has not affected Iranian electrolytic aluminum. The European natural gas inventory is in good condition. The overall consumption shows a marginal weakening trend, and inventory accumulation is expected in July, but the accumulation range is limited [3]. Strategy - For single - side trading, it is recommended to take a neutral stance. For arbitrage, a long - position in the positive spread of Shanghai aluminum is recommended [5]. Alumina Price and Market Data - On June 30, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,075 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,080 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,180 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton [2]. - The opening price of the alumina main contract on June 30, 2025, was 2,980 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2,985 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 253,492 lots and a position of 288,909 lots [2]. Market Analysis - A certain electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered 10,000 tons of alumina spot, and the winning bid price was between 3,370 - 3,410 yuan/ton, slightly higher than the previous transaction. The cost is stable, but alumina plants are pessimistic about the future price, resulting in low procurement enthusiasm for bauxite. The production and inventory are rising [4]. Strategy - For single - side trading, a cautiously bearish stance is recommended [5]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Market Data - On June 30, 2025, the Baotai civil aluminum scrap purchase price was 15,300 yuan/ton, and the mechanical aluminum scrap purchase price was 15,400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai ADC12 quotation was 19,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The aluminum alloy social inventory was 26,000 tons, a weekly increase of 2,200 tons; the in - plant inventory was 82,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 100 tons; the total inventory was 108,800 tons, a weekly increase of 2,100 tons [2]. Market Analysis - The aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season, with limited price increase space in the spot market. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost supports the price [4]. Strategy - For single - side trading, a neutral stance is recommended. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on AD11 and short on AL11 [5].

Group 1: Market Overview - The market has seen adjustments in hot sectors, with cyclical commodities like coking coal, aluminum, and Brent crude oil performing well due to the Middle East crisis affecting global commodity supply [2] - The North China 50 index has adjusted, influenced by discussions around micro-cap stock trading congestion, with cautious investors taking action [2] - A weekly review of A-shares shows bank stocks leading in gains, while sectors like beauty care, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and social services have seen declines [2] Group 2: Middle East Risk - The Middle East crisis is currently limited to Iran, but concerns are growing about the potential for escalation following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities [3] - Predictions suggest that if Iran expands its attacks and blocks the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could surge to $120-130 per barrel, leading to high global inflation and reduced manufacturing profits [3] - Analysis indicates that U.S. actions may be politically motivated to alleviate internal pressures, with a focus on avoiding ground troop deployment [3] Group 3: China Asset Revaluation - The recent Lujiazui Forum indicated a policy tone favoring openness, which could release policy dividends for the revaluation of Chinese assets [5] - Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in China has shown a decline, with actual foreign investment amounting to 358.19 billion yuan in the first five months of 2025, down 13.2% year-on-year [5][6] - The structure of FDI shows positive trends in high-tech industries, with significant growth in sectors like e-commerce services and aerospace manufacturing [6] Group 4: Tax Revenue Insights - National public budget revenue for January to May 2025 was 96,623 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, with land use rights revenue down 11.9% [7] - The probability of a real estate market resurgence is low, as indicated by declining property-related tax revenues [7] - Securities transaction stamp duty increased by 52.4% year-on-year, reflecting heightened market activity and the importance of the stock market in asset revaluation [8] Group 5: Non-Tax Revenue and Market Dynamics - Non-tax revenue grew by 6.2% year-on-year, indicating a shift in focus from external factors to internal reforms and adjustments in interests [9] - The government is increasingly normalizing its behavior in revenue collection, which is crucial for market vitality and asset revaluation [9] Group 6: Long-Term Asset Revaluation - While external risk premiums suggest a foundation for asset revaluation in China, internal conditions still require improvement for a complete revaluation [10] - The restructuring of international order and adjustments in China's leading industries present ongoing investment opportunities [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in U.S. military strategy under President Trump regarding Iran, highlighting the potential for escalating conflict and the implications for U.S. foreign policy and economic stability [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Military Strategy and Iran - President Trump initially aimed to avoid "endless wars" but has been drawn into conflict with Iran, influenced by Israeli interests [1]. - The U.S. has gained air superiority over Iran and is considering further military actions, which could lead to a more severe situation for Iran [1]. - The article suggests that Israel has strategically weakened Iran through proxy attacks, ultimately leading to U.S. involvement [1]. Group 2: Risks of Prolonged Conflict - A prolonged conflict could expand the Middle Eastern front, posing significant risks [2]. - There is a concern that the U.S. may not fully dismantle Iran's nuclear capabilities, as Iran reportedly possesses 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, enough for nine nuclear weapons [2]. - Economic risks are highlighted, with oil prices already rising by 10% due to Iranian attacks, potentially exceeding $100 per barrel if conflict continues [2]. - The U.S. faces risks related to long-term interest rates and potential inflation, which could harm the economies of heavily indebted nations [2]. - The article notes that rising oil prices could benefit Russia and impact peace efforts in Ukraine, undermining U.S. hegemony [2]. Group 3: U.S. Objectives - Preventing Iran's nuclear development is a key objective for the U.S., and the success or failure of this effort will significantly affect evaluations of Trump's presidency [3].

Group 1 - The meeting between E3 (Germany, France, and the UK) and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Geneva aims to prevent a full-scale war in the Middle East and is the first direct dialogue with Iran since Israel's airstrikes [2] - E3 seeks to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) by requiring Iran to accept International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) oversight of its nuclear program and reduce its ballistic missile stockpile [2] - Iran insists that it will only engage in diplomatic solutions if Israel halts its military strikes against Iran [2] Group 2 - US President Trump dismisses European diplomatic efforts, stating that Iran "does not want to talk to Europe" and emphasizes that the US is the only nation capable of changing the course of the war [2] - Despite the military and economic capabilities of the E3, their influence is significantly less than that of the US, leading to a marginalization of Europe's "goodwill mediation" role [2] - There are internal divisions among the E3 regarding their stance on Israel, with Germany being the most supportive, while the UK and France have taken more critical positions [2] Group 3 - The future of the Iran nuclear deal is bleak, as Iran has gradually resumed nuclear activities since the US unilaterally withdrew from the agreement in 2018 [3] - Experts believe that without US intervention, the likelihood of Europe reviving the agreement is very low, and the positions of China and Russia also affect international consensus on the issue [3] - The UN Security Council struggles to promote a ceasefire due to divisions among the US, Russia, and China, with experts suggesting that only military defeat or significant external intervention can lead to peace in the Middle East [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2) Core View of the Report - The spot market remains weak, with downstream buyers still reluctant to buy at high prices and the spot premium showing a downward trend. The cost of domestic zinc ore is stable, and the import window for zinc ore is closed. The supply side has stable smelting profits and a long - term high - growth supply expectation. Consumption is unexpectedly strong, with an increase in the zinc alloy operating rate and only a slight increase in social zinc ingot inventory, possibly due to the "zinc alloy reservoir" effect. Short - term energy disturbances caused by the Middle East crisis should be watched out for [1][3] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market and Futures Market - **Spot Market**: LME zinc spot premium is -$30.04/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 210 yuan/ton to 21,990 yuan/ton, and its premium dropped by 15 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 220 yuan/ton to 21,970 yuan/ton, and its premium dropped by 25 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 210 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton, and its premium dropped by 15 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Market**: On June 19, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 21,945 yuan/ton, closed at 21,865 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 114,481 lots, a decrease of 9,214 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 87,639 lots, a decrease of 9,589 lots from the previous day. The intraday price fluctuated between 21,800 - 22,020 yuan/ton [1] Inventory - As of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven major regions was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons from the same period last week. The LME zinc inventory was 127,475 tons, a decrease of 775 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - **Cost**: The TC of domestic zinc ore is stable, the import window for zinc ore is closed, domestic ore has an advantage over imported ore, and the TC of imported ore in the third quarter overseas is still rising [3] - **Supply**: Smelting profits remain stable, and the long - term high - growth supply expectation remains unchanged [3] - **Consumption**: Consumption is unexpectedly strong, the zinc alloy operating rate is increasing, and the slight increase in social zinc ingot inventory may be due to the "zinc alloy reservoir" effect. Short - term energy disturbances caused by the Middle East crisis should be watched out for [3] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish [4] - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Downstream buyers are reluctant to buy at high prices, mainly consuming inventory, leading to poor spot market transactions and a further decline in spot premiums [3] - The TC of domestic zinc ore remains stable, the import window for zinc ore is closed, domestic ore has an advantage over imported ore, and the TC of imported ore in the third - quarter overseas continues to rise [3] - Smelters' raw material inventory is still sufficient, and the upward trend of the ore end remains unchanged [3] - Smelting profits remain stable, and the long - term high - growth supply expectation remains unchanged [3] - Consumption performance is unexpectedly strong, the zinc alloy operating rate is still increasing, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has not shown a trend of accumulation, possibly due to the zinc alloy reservoir effect [3] - In the short term, be vigilant about energy disturbances caused by the Middle East crisis [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$30.04/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 190 yuan/ton to 22,200 yuan/ton, and the spot premium fell by 25 yuan/ton to 155 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 170 yuan/ton to 22,190 yuan/ton, and the spot premium fell by 45 yuan/ton to 145 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 180 yuan/ton to 22,210 yuan/ton, and the spot premium fell by 35 yuan/ton to 165 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On June 18, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 21,885 yuan/ton and closed at 22,060 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 123,695 lots, a decrease of 694 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 97,228 lots, a decrease of 8,440 lots from the previous trading day. The highest price was 22,130 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,825 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 16, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 78,100 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons compared with the same period last week. As of June 18, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 128,250 tons, a decrease of 625 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Downstream buyers are reluctant to buy at high prices, mainly consuming inventory, resulting in poor spot market transactions and a further decline in spot premiums [3] - **Cost**: The TC of domestic zinc ore remains stable, the import window for zinc ore is closed, domestic ore has an advantage over imported ore, and the TC of imported ore in the third - quarter overseas continues to rise [3] - **Supply**: Smelting profits remain stable, and the long - term high - growth supply expectation remains unchanged [3] - **Consumption**: Consumption performance is unexpectedly strong, the zinc alloy operating rate is still increasing, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has not shown a trend of accumulation, possibly due to the zinc alloy reservoir effect [3] - **Risk**: In the short term, be vigilant about energy disturbances caused by the Middle East crisis [3]