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《非洲增长和机会法案》(AGOA)
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专访标银投资咨询首席经济学家倪杰瑞:特朗普关税颠覆美非贸易安排,非洲或寻求扩大中欧贸易
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. tariffs imposed under Trump's "America First" policy significantly impact African economies, particularly those heavily reliant on exports to the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Tariff Impact on African Economies - African countries face high tariffs, with Lesotho at 50%, Madagascar at 47%, Mauritius at 40%, and South Africa at 30%, among others [1] - The tariffs threaten the export competitiveness of African economies, especially Namibia, Mozambique, and Eswatini, which are highly export-dependent [2][4] - The tariffs undermine the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which previously allowed certain African countries to export approximately 1,800 products to the U.S. duty-free [2][5] Group 2: Economic Adjustments and Responses - African nations may respond to the tariffs with a mix of retaliation and compromise, given the power asymmetry in U.S.-Africa relations [2][7] - Long-term strategies may include strengthening regional trade agreements like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and diversifying export markets towards China and the EU [2][3][7] - The World Bank predicts that AfCFTA could help lift 30 million Africans out of extreme poverty and increase African income by $450 billion by 2035 [2] Group 3: Sector-Specific Impacts - South Africa's automotive and agricultural sectors face a 30% tariff, prompting potential strategies to deepen ties with other regions, particularly the EU and China [6] - Countries like Lesotho and Kenya, which heavily depend on AGOA, may experience significant job losses and declines in export revenues due to the loss of duty-free access [5][6] Group 4: Broader Economic Implications - The uneven tariff impacts may exacerbate economic disparities across Africa, with regions more exposed to U.S. markets likely to struggle more than others [6] - Financial markets may react negatively, increasing borrowing costs for governments with substantial external debt, further straining fiscal stability [4][6]