FICC日报 | 2025-08-22 美欧8月制造业PMI双超预期，关注杰克逊霍尔会议 市场分析 7月基本面仍有韧性。全球7月的经济数据仍有韧性：中国7月官方制造业PMI回落至49.3，非制造业保持扩张；中 国7月按美元计出口同比增长7.2%，高于预期，主要受去年低基数和"抢出口"效应支撑；金融数据中，货币供给超 预期，但融资和贷款数据仍弱；经济数据中，投资数据仍有明显压力，国内月频经济数据仍有压力。国务院第九 次全体会议强调，采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势，培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投资。国家能 源局对外发布了7月全社会用电量，达1.02万亿千瓦时，同比增长8.6%。中国30年期国债收益率升至去年12月来新 高。美国方面，7月非农数据不及预期，但7月服务业PMI明显改善，"大漂亮"法案或支撑后续消费。展望后续，对 等关税2.0生效，需要关注后续需求情况。近期市场情绪和基本面仍存在分歧，警惕商品对应的波动风险。 FICC日报 | 2025-08-22 关注"对等关税"的影响。7月31日，白宫发布行政令，对部分国家重新设定"对等关税"税率标准：行政令附件1中列 明国家将适用个别税率，未列明国家则统 ...

关注美欧8月制造业PMI初值和杰克逊霍尔会议 市场分析 7月基本面仍有韧性。全球7月的经济数据仍有韧性：中国7月官方制造业PMI回落至49.3，非制造业保持扩张；中 国7月按美元计出口同比增长7.2%，高于预期，主要受去年低基数和"抢出口"效应支撑；金融数据中，货币供给超 预期，但融资和贷款数据仍弱；经济数据中，投资数据仍有明显压力，国内月频经济数据仍有压力。中国央行将 一年期和五年期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）分别维持在3%和3.5%不变。国务院第九次全体会议强调，采取有力措 施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势，培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投资。美国方面，7月非农数据不及预期，但 7月服务业PMI明显改善，"大漂亮"法案或支撑后续消费。展望后续，对等关税2.0生效，需要关注后续需求情况。 8月20日，A股全天震荡走高，尤其是午后三大股指强势拉升，芯片半导体大爆发，汽车整车上涨，白酒板块走强， 医药股迎来调整。国内商品期货品种大面积下跌，截至收盘，碳酸锂主力合约跌停，跌幅8%，纯碱跌5%，玻璃跌 超4%。近期市场情绪和基本面仍存在分歧，警惕商品对应的波动风险。 关注"对等关税"的影响。7月31日，白宫发布行政令，对 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-08-20 关注中国8月LPR报价和欧元区7月调和CPI终值 市场分析 7月基本面仍有韧性。全球7月的经济数据仍有韧性：中国7月官方制造业PMI回落至49.3，非制造业保持扩张；中 国7月按美元计出口同比增长7.2%，高于预期，主要受去年低基数和"抢出口"效应支撑；金融数据中，货币供给超 预期，但融资和贷款数据仍弱；经济数据中，投资数据仍有明显压力，国内月频经济数据仍有压力。美国方面，7 月非农数据不及预期，但7月服务业PMI明显改善，"大漂亮"法案或支撑后续消费。国务院第九次全体会议强调， 采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势，培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投资。展望后续，对等关税2.0生 效，需要关注后续需求情况。8月19日，A股三大股指震荡盘整，沪深两市成交额连续5日超2万亿，AI硬件股延续 强势，工业涨停续创历史新高，白酒等消费股反弹。国债反弹，商品下跌。近期市场情绪和基本面仍存在分歧， 警惕商品对应的波动风险。 关注"对等关税"的影响。7月31日，白宫发布行政令，对部分国家重新设定"对等关税"税率标准：行政令附件1中列 明国家将适用个别税率，未列明国家则统一适用10%的 ...

美国贸易政策的核心变数仍然是特朗普本人，在未来两三年的任期里，这种高度争议 性的关税策略料将屡见不鲜， 任何国家若想掌握未来的话语权，就必须成为连接不同 贸易圈的"最大公约数"。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人厉梦颖 在特朗普的经济政策工具箱中，关税无疑是他最为钟爱且频繁使用的工具。从第一任期内的"小试牛 刀"，到第二任期中表现出的"游刃有余"，特朗普关税已成为其标志性政治遗产的一部分。 一、 特朗普2.0关税体系 在第一个任期内，特朗普就以"美国优先"为核心，掀起了一场以关税为主要武器的贸易革命，主要表 现为针对特定问题的"外科手术式"打击：依据《1962年贸易扩展法》第232条款，以维护国家安全为 名对全球钢铝产品加征关税；并援引《1974年贸易法》第301条款，对数千亿美元的中国商品加征关 税。这些行动点燃了全球范围的贸易争端，改变了国际贸易的既有格局。 地缘战略伙伴，则因其独特的战略价值，亦被准予进入这一梯队。再向外延伸，越南、马来西亚等东盟 国家面临着19%至20%的中等税率壁垒。而所有其他未被归类的国家位于最外缘，需面对25%以上的 高税率。 根据特朗普7月30日签署的一项行政令，美国将从8月29日起 ...

Group 1: Tariff Strategy - Tariffs are a key tool in Trump's economic policy, evolving from targeted strikes to a comprehensive strategy in his second term[2] - The tariff strategy consists of four main components: reciprocal tariffs, punitive tariffs, transshipment tariffs, and industry protection barriers[6] - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. has increased by 16.2 percentage points, reaching 18.6%, the highest level since the Great Depression[29] Group 2: Trade Relations and Impact - The U.S. is transitioning to a more decentralized trade structure, moving away from reliance on the U.S.-China economic relationship[3] - The imposition of tariffs has led to a significant increase in import costs, with specific tariffs reaching as high as 50% on steel and aluminum products[21] - The U.S. government is using tariffs as a diplomatic tool, with punitive tariffs being applied to countries like Canada and Mexico, and targeting third-party nations involved in trade with adversaries[11] Group 3: Economic Consequences - Pre-tariff import surges led to a 4.67% month-on-month increase in imports in March, followed by a 1.39% year-on-year decline in June, indicating a demand pullback[29] - U.S. businesses are entering a de-inventory phase, with durable goods inventory growth slowing from 1.52% in March to 0.17% in June[29] - The uncertainty surrounding new tariff tools and potential trade negotiations post-midterm elections poses risks to global supply chains and capital markets[4]

Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The Trump administration's tariff policy includes three types of tariffs: national tariffs, industry-specific tariffs, and tariffs to close loopholes in transshipment [5][7] - Four categories of countries are identified based on their trade relations with the US, with tariffs ranging from 10% to over 30% [7][8] - The new tariff system emphasizes additional conditions, such as commitments to invest in the US and open markets [8][9] Group 2: Impact on China and Industries - The implementation of reciprocal tariffs will lead to a decrease in US imports, which may cause a decline in China's export levels in the second half of the year [3][11] - If China manages to limit the cumulative tariff to 10%, its actual import share may rebound, while transshipment tariffs will lead to increased production capacity overseas [3][11] - Industries such as home appliances, light manufacturing, and power equipment are expected to benefit from the tariff changes [3][19] Group 3: Tariff Cost Burden - The effective import tariff rate in the US has reached its highest level since 1934, but the import price index has not shown a significant decline [32][35] - Exporters currently bear about 13% of the tariff costs, with US importers and consumers absorbing the majority [35][41] - The burden on consumers is expected to rise, with projections indicating that up to two-thirds of the tariff costs may eventually be passed on to them [51][53] Group 4: Federal Reserve and Inflation - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is expected to be limited, with an estimated increase in inflation of only 0.4-0.8 percentage points by the end of the year [62][64] - The focus should shift from inflation concerns to potential job market deterioration, which may lead to unexpected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [64]

从贝森特的这番言论不难看出，美国那些政客并不是不知道，特朗普对全球加征关税所带来的长期负面影响。 美国财长的上述言论，从更深层次也可以理解为，美国并不是真的想要跟世界脱节，搞闭关锁国的那一套，特朗普只想在短期内向世界各国敲诈点利益，多 捞些"快钱"。 贝森特暗示关税会像"融化的冰块"一样被撤销，但前提是制造业回流美国，那么特朗普能实现这一点吗？ 近日，美国财长贝森特在接受日本媒体采访时表示：美国对其他国家进口商品征收的"对等关税"就像"融化的冰块"，可能会消失，但前提是所谓的贸易失 衡，得先按美国的标准"纠正"过来，制造业先回流美国。 这样做，一方面是自己任期内有钱花；另一方面，搞出一些能够超越前任总统并且标新立异的成就，为美国优先张目，为自己以及共和党脸上贴金。 但长期来看，美国仍然会继续融入全球化。 理由很简单，美元霸权离不开全球化。 但问题是，所谓的贸易失衡能够按照美国的标准"纠正"过来吗？制造业能回流美国吗？ 客观来讲，特朗普要想实现这两点，基本不太可能。 除非美国自己彻底放弃美元霸权。 因为在美国政府只要开动印钞机，就能从全球随便购买商品的背景下，他们的制造业怎么可能重振呢？ 既然能靠印钱就能过上轻 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In July, the global economic data still showed resilience, but there were still pressures in domestic monthly economic data. The A-share market was strong on August 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a near 10-year high, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index breaking through last year's highs. The bond market tumbled, and commodities were divided. Attention should be paid to the impact of "reciprocal tariffs" and the progress of "anti-involution" [1]. - The current tariffs are still in a "stagnant" stage, which will bring certain drag to commodities greatly affected by external demand. After the July interest rate meeting, Powell did not give guidance on a September rate cut, emphasizing the uncertainty of tariffs and inflation [2]. - For commodities, the black and new energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the domestic supply side, the energy and non-ferrous sectors benefit significantly from overseas inflation expectations, and the "anti-involution" space of some chemical products is also worthy of attention. The short - term fluctuation space of agricultural products is relatively limited [3]. - For strategies, it is recommended to allocate more industrial products on dips in commodities and stock index futures [4]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - In July, China's official manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3, non - manufacturing remained in expansion, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year in US dollars, monetary supply exceeded expectations, but financing and loan data were still weak, and investment data had obvious pressure. In the US, the July non - farm payrolls data was below expectations, but the service PMI improved significantly, and the "Great Beauty" bill might support subsequent consumption. On August 18, the A - share market was strong, with the total market turnover exceeding 2.8 trillion yuan, the third - highest in history. Market hotspots focused on AI hardware stocks, brokers, and fintech, while the bond market tumbled and commodities were divided [1]. Tariff Impact - On July 31, the White House re - set "reciprocal tariff" rates. From August 12, 2025, the implementation of a 24% tariff was suspended for 90 days until November 10. On August 15, the Trump administration expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports and might announce a semiconductor tariff of up to 300% within two weeks. Current tariffs are in a "stagnant" stage, dragging down some commodities [2]. Commodity Analysis - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the non - ferrous sector's supply constraints have not been alleviated. The medium - term supply of the energy sector is considered to be relatively loose, with OPEC+ accelerating production and increasing production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. The "anti - involution" space of some chemical products is worthy of attention, and the short - term fluctuation of agricultural products is relatively limited. Since the "anti - involution" market started in July, major varieties have retreated to varying degrees [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate more industrial products on dips [4]. To - do News - On August 18, the market was strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a near 10 - year high, over 4000 stocks rising, and the trading volume reaching 2.81 trillion yuan. Trump will meet with Zelensky and European leaders on the 18th. The European Council President emphasized the importance of trans - Atlantic unity, and the EU will introduce the 19th round of sanctions against Russia in early September [5].

作为出口依赖型经济体，澳大利亚长期依靠全球自由贸易维持增长。特朗普政府基于"对等关税"逻辑的政策使澳方陷入被动。澳大利亚广播公司 此前曾报道，尽管澳大利亚目前尚能维持10%的"最低税率"，但特朗普近期暗示可能将"基准关税"提高至15%-20%。若此政策落地，将直接削弱 澳产品在美竞争力，并可能使澳大利亚相较已与美谈妥15%关税上限的英国、日本和欧盟等伙伴处于更不利地位。 值得注意的是，澳大利亚药品定价和补贴制度也成为美方指责的焦点。美国制药业游说机构批评澳药品福利计划"低估美国创新价值"，压低药品 价格。但澳政府明确表示，不会为避免关税而牺牲国家公共医疗制度。 报道称，民调结果存在明显的党派差异。在执政党工党支持者中，55%的人认为美国加征关税是澳大利亚面临的主要威胁；在绿党支持者中这一 比例更高，达60%。相比之下，联盟党支持者中有一半担忧"中国威胁"。教育程度差异也呈现类似趋势：受过大学教育者更担心美国关税；大学 以下学历群体在两者间的担忧则更为均衡。 民调还显示工党的支持率有所提升。在澳总理阿尔巴尼斯7月访华后，工党支持率以56%领先于右翼联盟党的44%。此外，自2023年9月以来，首 次出现满意阿尔巴 ...

"随着美国关税政策逐步落地，我国钢材出口可能下降，利空钢坯和板材相关产品。"刘慧峰说。 当地时间8月15日，美国特朗普政府宣布扩大对钢铁和铝进口征收50%关税的范围，将数百种衍生产品 纳入加征关税清单。 美国商务部在当天晚间发布的《联邦公报》公告中表示，工业与安全局已将407个产品编码加入《美国 协调关税表》，这些产品将因所含钢铁和铝成分而被加征额外关税。 公告称，这些产品中非钢铁和铝的部分，将适用特朗普总统对特定国家商品所征收的关税税率。扩大的 关税清单将于8月18日正式生效。 "上述关税政策针对全球的钢铁和铝产品，扩大的征税范围主要包括以下两类产品：一是含有钢铁和铝 的中间产品和半成品，如钢坯、板坯等。二是由钢铁和铝制成的金属结构件、容器、紧固件等。值得注 意的是，上述关税政策与'对等关税'不叠加，之前中美贸易谈判达成的协议也不适用于钢铁和铝产 品。"东海期货黑色金属首席研究员刘慧峰说。 华闻期货首席黑色分析师胡万斌告诉期货日报记者，上述关税政策对我国钢材直接出口的影响较为有 限，对间接出口影响相对较大。不过，如果考虑到当前美国钢材价格远高于国际市场价格，上述关税政 策对美国钢材及相关衍生品进口量的实际影 ...