Core Viewpoint - The influx of southbound capital into the Hong Kong stock market represents not only a significant capital flow but also an opportunity for redefining industrial value, particularly highlighted by the record net buying of HKD 747.017 billion in the past year, a 158% year-on-year increase [1][4]. Group 1: Southbound Capital Trends - Southbound capital has shown unprecedented enthusiasm for the Hong Kong stock market, with net buying expected to reach HKD 807.9 billion in 2024, a 136% year-on-year increase, setting a new record since the launch of the mutual market access [4]. - The capital market has referred to this trend as a large-scale "north water south transfer" [5]. - In 2024, southbound capital primarily favored high-yield and dividend stocks, with the top 10 net buying stocks being dominated by these categories [6]. Group 2: Impact on Real Estate Sector - In the ongoing adjustment period of the real estate industry, Beike has emerged as a representative of technology-driven new residential services, benefiting from the support of southbound capital [2]. - Beike's inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect is expected to attract significant active and passive capital allocation, potentially increasing liquidity and trading activity [7]. - The stock price of Beike has risen from around HKD 45 to approximately HKD 65 since February, influenced by an upgrade in its ESG rating and expectations of its inclusion in the Stock Connect [8]. Group 3: Beike's Financial Performance - Beike reported a transaction volume of RMB 736.8 billion in Q3 2024, a 12.5% year-on-year increase, with net income rising by 26.8% to RMB 22.6 billion [15]. - As of Q3 2024, Beike's cash and cash equivalents totaled RMB 59.5 billion, with short-term borrowings only at RMB 3.07 billion, indicating a strong financial position compared to traditional real estate companies [16]. - Beike's business model, which focuses on technology-driven residential services, has allowed it to maintain resilience amid industry challenges [9][15]. Group 4: Strategic Positioning and Future Outlook - Beike's positioning as a "technology-driven one-stop new residential service platform" is reshaping capital perceptions of real estate-related stocks, similar to how major tech companies have transformed their respective industries [24]. - The company is actively pursuing a new growth model in the real estate sector, focusing on data-driven residential development services and enhancing user participation in the construction of quality housing [18]. - Beike's strategic initiatives, including the launch of its "Beihome" project, have shown promising results, with significant sales achieved shortly after launch [21]. Group 5: Long-term Growth Potential - The influx of capital from the Stock Connect is expected to support Beike's stock price in the short term, but the company's long-term growth potential will be tested by its ability to retain this capital [28]. - Beike's "one body, three wings" strategy, which includes a focus on existing housing, home decoration, and rental services, is crucial for navigating market cycles [30]. - The company has committed to returning value to shareholders through stock buybacks and dividends, reinforcing its long-term growth strategy [31].