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年中论道:钢市“下半场”棋局何解
Zhong Guo Chan Ye Jing Ji Xin Xi Wang· 2025-07-21 00:52
Core Viewpoint - China's economy is showing resilience amid a complex global environment, but faces challenges in economic recovery, particularly in the steel market due to supply-demand imbalances and external pressures [1] Group 1: Economic Environment - China's macroeconomic policies have been effectively stimulating market activity through targeted fiscal and monetary measures [2] - The steel industry has maintained stable operations despite a challenging domestic and international macro environment [2] - The U.S. tariff disputes pose potential threats to China's steel exports, particularly through indirect impacts on production and consumption [2] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The steel industry is facing three main challenges: shrinking traditional demand alongside growing high-end steel demand, the impact of international trade conflicts, and the diminishing returns of ultra-low emission transformations [3] - There is skepticism regarding the improvement of structural contradictions within the steel industry, emphasizing the need for innovation and collaboration across the supply chain [3] Group 3: Demand Outlook - Short-term demand is expected to decline, particularly in the construction sector, while manufacturing remains a key growth area for steel consumption [5] - Long-term projections indicate that China's crude steel production will stabilize between 800 million to 900 million tons by 2035, maintaining its position as the largest steel market [5] Group 4: Industry Strategy - The steel industry is urged to adopt a self-disciplined approach to production, focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements [6] - There is a call for steel companies to embrace digitalization and innovation to enhance competitiveness and adapt to market changes [6] - Policies aimed at stabilizing housing prices and supporting the market are expected to provide some relief to the steel sector [6]