Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China has experienced a significant downturn since its peak in 2021, with official statistics indicating a decline of approximately 15%, while some commercial estimates suggest a drop of 25-30% [1][22][23]. This decline not only represents a loss of wealth but also a decrease in liquidity. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The adjustment in the real estate sector is influenced by various factors, including the geopolitical context of the US-China rivalry, which has led to a shift in resource allocation from real estate to high-tech industries [3][6][7]. - The introduction of the "three red lines" and "two red lines" policies aimed to regulate real estate financing, contributing to the industry's downturn [5][6]. - The pre-sale system in China has created a unique market dynamic where a significant portion of financing comes from homebuyers, leading to a complex debt structure for developers [18][19][20]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The real estate sector's decline has resulted in a substantial reduction in household wealth, with real estate accounting for 50-60% of family assets, and an estimated wealth of 300 trillion yuan at the peak in 2021 [22][23]. - The downturn has severely impacted upstream and downstream industries, particularly construction and related services, leading to significant job losses [25][26][27]. - Local government finances have also been adversely affected, with land sale revenues dropping by approximately 80% in some areas, significantly impacting overall fiscal health [28][30][31]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - There is a growing consensus on the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, with a focus on ensuring housing delivery and removing unnecessary restrictions [34][35][36]. - Restoring consumer confidence is critical, as many buyers are hesitant to purchase homes due to concerns about timely delivery and quality [37][39][40]. - The concept of "保交房" (ensuring housing delivery) is seen as essential for market clearing, as it addresses the underlying debt issues faced by developers [41][45][57]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The recovery of the real estate market by 2025 hinges on effective policy measures and restoring confidence among consumers and developers [33][38][40]. - The current market situation is characterized by a mismatch between supply and demand, with many homes sold but not yet completed, complicating the recovery process [48][49]. - A strategic approach to managing distressed developers, including potential government intervention, is necessary to stabilize the market and restore trust [64][71][72].