股指、黄金周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251121 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内外宏观经济数据 今年1-10月房地产投资同比下降14.7%，降幅连续8个月扩大；基础设施投资同比下降 0.1%，为2020年9月以来首次转负；制造业投资同比增长2.7%，增速较上月放缓1.3个 百分点，创2021年2月以来新低。 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 惠农保价稳产 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 IF 惠农保价稳产 IC 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 IH AU 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 股指、黄金现货价格走势 股指基本面数据 企业盈利 资金面 今年10月新增贷款和社融规模大幅回落，广义货币供应量M2同比增长8.2%，M1同比增 长6.2%，分别较上月回落0.2和1个百分点，二者之间的剪刀差再次走阔。 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 惠农保价稳产 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 沪深两市融资余额小幅回落至24724..55亿元，央行本周共开展16760亿7天期逆回购 操作，实现净投放5540亿元。 利率 流动性 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 黄金基本面数据 惠农保价 ...

男装已经够不好卖了，雅戈尔（600177）还被地产业务所拖累。 在近期的三季度业绩投资者交流会上，投资者就地产业务对业绩造成的拖累，对公司管理层连续提出质 疑。 季报显示，今年前三季度的地产业务表现中，雅戈尔靠尾盘销售预售7.5亿元，同比下滑70.58%；结转 营收17.32亿元，同比下滑54.41%；归属上市公司股东净利润1.17亿元，同比下滑39.99%。 不论从三季度报还是中报都可以看出，地产板块是雅戈尔各板块业务中，下滑最为迅猛的部分。但即便 如此，这家以男装品牌而在全国知名的企业，今年前9个月的收入中，地产业务对营收的贡献率仍达到 25.56%，撑起了公司四分之一的营收规模。 实际上，早在1992年就涉足房地产行业的雅戈尔，在地产界并非"玩票"，而是服装行业的"隐形地主"。 雅戈尔不但曾经在宁波、苏州、上海、杭州等地拿下"地王"地块，2010年其地产业务更是首次超过主业 服装业务，成为第一大营收来源。 尤其是2010年雅戈尔在杭州申花拿下的"地王"地块迟迟没有开发，并在3年后选择退地并直接导致4.8亿 元定金损失的事件，不但在地产行业引发轩然大波，还直接导致当年公司的利润损失。 和地产行业其他企业的 ...

Core Insights - South Korea is experiencing a "dual super cycle" driven by the AI chip boom and a structural shortage in real estate, leading to significant economic implications [1][2][5] Semiconductor Super Cycle - The global semiconductor industry is entering a structural upturn driven by AI computing and cloud infrastructure, with HBM and high-end DRAM supply constraints supporting prices and extending the cycle [4][10] - The semiconductor export surge is expected to result in a current account surplus of $164 billion by 2026, accounting for 7.6% of GDP, which is a historical high [18][23] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market in Seoul is entering a new super cycle, with apartment prices rising 7.2% year-to-date, significantly outpacing the national average of 0.5% [11][14] - A drastic decline of nearly 40% in new housing starts since 2022 has created a supply cliff, contributing to panic buying in the real estate market [12][13] Economic Growth Projections - Nomura has raised its GDP growth forecast for South Korea from 1.9% to 2.3% for 2026, driven by the wealth effect from rising asset prices [6][23] - The liquidity influx from semiconductor exports is translating into asset price inflation across various categories [6][18] Investment Strategies - The Bank of Korea (BOK) is expected to maintain the policy rate at 2.50%, limiting further rate cuts despite strong economic growth and rising asset prices [3][23] - Investment strategies include focusing on capital-intensive tech stocks, particularly in the semiconductor sector, and benefiting from the consumer recovery in the automotive sector due to recent tariff agreements [20][22]

本周的汇市中，日元成为了表现最差的主要货币，日元兑美元在周三一夜贬值1%，跌至1月以来的最低水平，日本股市在本周后半段反弹的势头也将面临考 验。 对日本央行加息前景构成挑战 日本央行是全球最后一个放弃负利率和收益率曲线控制的主要央行，其货币政策正常化的道路本就充满不确定性，这份刺激计划让这条路更加崎岖。刺激计 划会推高国内需求，可能带来更持久、由内需驱动的通胀，这将支持日本央行收紧货币政策。 但另一方面， 刺激计划导致的日元疲软会大幅推高进口成本，这是输入性通胀，会挤压家庭和企业利润，如果市场对财政失去信心导致国债收益率失控， 日本央行将被迫干预债市。所以，日本央行需要在 "对抗通胀"、"支持经济增长" 和 "维持金融市场稳定" 这三个目标之间做出艰难取舍。当前日央行的加息 计划一拖再拖，仍面临挑战。 外界预计日本政府将于周五公布期待已久的经济刺激方案，日本首相高市早苗正面临上任以来的首次重大市场考验，人们对政府即将推出的刺激计划的担忧 可能会破坏她当选后点燃的股市上涨行情。市场担忧支出计划会加剧日本的财政困境，导致政府债券价格暴跌，日元疲软的局面也进一步加剧。 彭博社指出："抛售日本"的交易可能才刚刚开始。 ...

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced significant volatility, leading to a decline in the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index both dropping over 2% [1] - The Hang Seng Index closed down 2.38% at 25,220.02 points, with a total trading volume of HKD 285.7 billion, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 2.45% [1] - For the week, the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index both saw a cumulative decline of 5.09%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index dropped 7.18% [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Xiaomi Group (01810) rose 1.01% to HKD 38.08, contributing 10.85 points to the Hang Seng Index, following a record buyback of 13.5 million shares at an average price of HKD 37.61 [2] - Among blue-chip stocks, only four saw gains, with Longfor Group (00960) up 1.43% and China Telecom (00728) up 0.69%, while Xinyi Solar (00968) and Link REIT (00823) faced significant declines [2] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks generally declined, with Alibaba down 4.65% and Tencent down 1.77%, while AI-related stocks also fell sharply [3] - Semiconductor stocks like SMIC and Hua Hong both dropped over 6%, and lithium stocks faced heavy losses due to regulatory changes affecting lithium futures [3][4] - The cryptocurrency market continued to experience a sell-off, with related stocks declining significantly [3] Lithium Stocks - Lithium stocks suffered major losses, with Ganfeng Lithium (01772) down 12.47% and Tianqi Lithium (09696) down 11.93% [4] - The futures market for lithium carbonate saw a limit down, with a 9% drop in the main contract [4] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw Bitcoin drop over 8% to USD 84,384, with Ethereum down over 9% [5] - Analysts suggest that the market is entering a "winter" phase, advising investors to take profits [5] Gaming Sector - Gaming stocks collectively declined, with Sands China (01928) down 5.97% and MGM China (02282) down 5.73% [6] - The Macau government projects a total gaming revenue of MOP 236 billion for the upcoming year, reflecting cautious optimism amid external uncertainties [6] Notable Stock Movements - Shide Global (00487) experienced a dramatic drop of 48.25% due to the termination of a service agreement affecting its operations [7] - Link REIT (00823) continued to face pressure, with a 7.47% decline following a downgrade in earnings forecasts [8]

大盘这些天"跌跌不休"，很多人心里打鼓，甚至想割肉离场。但在牛散和游资眼里，这分明是市场开着 卡车来"倒车接人"了！现在不仅不该怕，反而应该兴奋，该拿着钱袋子里外找了！还记得巴菲特说的那 句名言吗？——价格是你付出的，价值是你得到的。现在市场恐慌抛售的，很多正是那些因为短期利 空、情绪宣泄而被错杀的"烟屁股"——它们的内在价值，远高于当前的市场价格。1.市场情绪冰点，正 是烟蒂密集出现的黄金时刻当市场恐慌性抛售时，很多质地优良的公司也会被泥沙俱下地错杀。这些公 司的核心资产（品牌、技术、渠道、现金流）并未受损，但股价却跌到了极具安全边际的区间。这就像 在地上捡到了一个还能抽一口的雪茄烟蒂，虽然不长，但免费且有滋有味。格雷厄姆强调的"安全边 际"，在当下尤为重要。我们寻找那些：——市净率（PB）远低于历史均值的公司，尤其是破净 （PB<1）的优质龙头。这意味着你用低于公司净资产的价格在买入。——股息率极具吸引力的公司。 在市场动荡时，高股息不仅提供现金流回报，更是公司财务健康的"压舱石"。当股息率超过6%甚至更 高时，其防御性和吸引力不言而喻。——现金流充沛、负债率低的公司。这类公司在经济下行期更具韧 性，抗风 ...

Core Insights - South Korea is experiencing a macroeconomic feast driven by AI, which generates dollars through exports, converting them into domestic liquidity that is ultimately absorbed by the real estate and stock markets [1] Semiconductor Supercycle - The global semiconductor industry is entering a structural uptrend driven by AI computing and cloud infrastructure, marking a significant departure from the cyclical rebounds seen in previous years [1][3] - Nomura forecasts that chip export growth will surge from approximately 25% in 2025 to 50-60% in 2026, indicating a robust demand environment [1][4] Economic Predictions - Nomura maintains a non-consensus view that the Bank of Korea will keep the terminal interest rate at 2.50% for an extended period, dismissing further rate cuts [3][21] - The GDP growth forecast for South Korea has been raised from 1.9% to 2.3% for 2026, surpassing market consensus due to the wealth effect from rising asset prices [3][13] - A significant trade surplus from chip exports is expected to lead to a surge in M1 money supply, resulting in price increases across various asset classes [3][15] Real Estate Supercycle - The real estate market in South Korea is entering a new supercycle, with the Seoul apartment price index surpassing previous highs, driven by low borrowing costs and accumulated savings [7][10] - Despite high nominal prices, the low actual borrowing costs are sustaining the market, as buyers are entering the market due to fear of missing out (FOMO) [10][11] Liquidity and Wealth Effects - The report highlights a self-reinforcing macroeconomic cycle where the global AI narrative translates into domestic asset stories, contributing to the upward pressure on asset prices [11][19] - The expected current account surplus from semiconductor trade could exceed $120 billion in 2026, significantly impacting domestic liquidity [4][15] Investment Strategies - Nomura suggests a bullish stance on capital-intensive tech stocks, particularly in the semiconductor sector and the AI value chain, while recommending a bearish outlook on interest rate cut expectations [14][21] - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from consumer recovery and recent tariff agreements between the U.S. and South Korea [21]

证券研究报告 麦高证券 2025 年 11 月 21 日 (2025-11-20) 数据说明： 1、本表针对ETF各类日频数据进行每日跟踪，不构成投资建议。 9、空值代表刚刚上市基金行情数据不满足计算指标或还未进行年报半年报披露，部分QDII的净值披露较晚，对于未披露的数据处理为空值。 | 跟踪指数 | ETF基金名称 | 证券代码 | 流通市值 | 涨跌幅（%） | RSI相对强 | 净申购 | 成交额 | 日内行情趋势 管理费率 | 机构持仓占 | T+0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | （亿元） | | | | | 弱指标 | （亿元） | （亿元） | （%） | 比（%） | | | 宽基ETF | | | | | | | | | | | | 华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF | | 510300.SH | 4,179.55 | -0.45 | 42.37 | -6.00 | 26.45 | 0.15 | 87.11 | 否 | | 易方达沪深300ETF | | 510310.SH | 2,98 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - Despite Nvidia's strong performance, major US stock indices experienced declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.84%, S&P 500 down 1.56%, and Nasdaq down 2.15%. AI-related tech stocks, including AMD and Oracle, saw significant drops, indicating a potential correction in the market [2] - The demand for AI computing power in the US is expected to face limitations due to electricity constraints and inherent flaws in LLM models, suggesting that the current high valuations of related stocks may not be sustainable [2] - The smartphone market in China showed signs of recovery, with a total shipment of 27.93 million units in September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. 5G smartphones accounted for 24.11 million units, reflecting an 8.0% growth [3] - The Chinese government is considering new supportive policies for the real estate sector, including interest subsidies for new personal housing loans and increased tax deductions for homebuyers, which could alleviate financial pressure on consumers and stimulate economic growth [4] Group 2: Advanced Manufacturing - The lithium battery industry in China shows a high market concentration, with CR6 and CR10 indicating stable competition among leading firms. The positive scale effects of top companies are evident [7] - The cathode materials sector remains fragmented due to diverse technology routes and application scenarios, while the separator materials sector has the highest concentration with a CR10 of 94% [7] - The development of sodium batteries is gaining momentum, with predictions that by 2035, the ratio of lithium iron phosphate batteries to sodium batteries will be 4:6. The company plans to establish a production capacity of 300,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate by next year [8] Group 3: Consumer Sector - LVMH reported significant recovery in Q3 2025, particularly in the Chinese market, where local consumption shifted from negative to mid-single-digit growth. The trend of consumption returning to Hong Kong and mainland China is becoming established [10] - The innovative retail strategies employed by brands like LV have led to impressive terminal performance, with flagship stores in Shanghai achieving high foot traffic and sales [10] - The luxury goods sector is showing signs of warming, indicating a potential rebound in consumer spending [10]

受美联储降息前景的疑虑，加之比特币大跌影响风险市场情绪，导致亚太股市集体下挫。港股同样大幅 走低，恒生科技指数跌幅最大，午间收跌3.11%，恒生指数跌2.07%下挫超500点报25300点，国企指数 跌2.14%，三者均创阶段新低；大型科技股、 大金融股( 银行、 保险、券商)、中字头等权重集体低迷大 市承压十分明显， 半导体芯片股、 生物医药股、 锂电池股、 黄金股等纷纷下跌。另外，惟 军工股、 内房股部分逆势上涨，龙湖集团、 中船防务涨超3%。(格隆汇) ...