Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is expected to see a significant decline in delivery volumes after 2024, marking the end of a peak delivery period driven by the "guarantee delivery" policy [1][2] Group 1: Industry Overview - The national housing completion area from 2021 to 2024 was reported as 101,412 million square meters, 86,222 million square meters, 99,831 million square meters, and 73,743 million square meters respectively, indicating a rebound in 2023 after a decline in 2022 [1] - The delivery volume for real estate companies in the first half of 2025 is expected to drop significantly, with a general decline of over 50% in the number of units delivered [1] - The top 10 real estate companies accounted for 38.08 million units delivered, representing 56.46% of the total deliveries from 50 companies [1] Group 2: Company Focus - Sunac - Sunac delivered 186,000 units in 2022, 312,000 units in 2023, and 170,000 units in 2024, totaling over 668,000 units delivered [2] - In the first half of this year, Sunac delivered 15,000 units, including notable projects such as Xi'an Sunac Lan Yue Fu and Chongqing Chang Le Ya Song [2] - For 2025, Sunac aims to deliver over 50,000 units, with expectations to complete all guarantee delivery tasks by the end of the year [2] - The company is transitioning into a new development phase characterized by debt restructuring, stabilized sales, and the completion of guarantee delivery tasks [2]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development held a meeting to promote policies supporting the development of the private economy, emphasizing the need to eliminate market access barriers and optimize the policy environment for private enterprises in housing and urban construction [1] - The meeting aims to create a better policy and legal environment for private enterprises, which aligns with recent measures introduced by various regions to assist enterprises [1] Group 2 - Kinsford Holdings and its wholly-owned subsidiary received court approval for their restructuring plans, marking a significant step in optimizing their asset-liability structure and enhancing operational and profitability capabilities [2] - As the first nationwide real estate company in A-shares to complete judicial restructuring, Kinsford's approach provides a model for addressing industry risks through asset isolation, debt restructuring, and strategic transformation [2] Group 3 - Ocean Group announced the resumption of trading for seven company bonds, which may provide liquidity for debt restructuring, although the transfer is limited to professional institutional investors [3] - This event reflects the complexity of credit recovery in the real estate industry, with companies seeking to alleviate pressure through asset disposal and negotiation [3] Group 4 - Country Garden emphasized its commitment to ensuring property delivery and restoring normal operations, with significant investments directed towards this goal [4] - The case highlights the survival logic of real estate companies prioritizing delivery and debt alleviation amid liquidity crises, with the efficiency of debt restructuring and sales recovery being critical for returning to normal operations [4] Group 5 - Six residential projects were launched in Shanghai, totaling approximately 85,500 square meters and 734 units, indicating a rapid market supply increase [5] - Real estate companies with differentiated product capabilities and effective land cost management are expected to benefit from this accelerated market clearing [5][6]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development held a meeting to support the development of the private economy, emphasizing the need to implement policies that promote private enterprises' participation in housing and urban construction reforms [1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of breaking down market access barriers and optimizing the policy environment, which aligns with recent measures introduced in various regions to assist enterprises [1] - The execution efficiency and market adaptability to new tracks such as green and digital transformation remain areas for observation [1] Group 2 - Kinsford Holdings and its wholly-owned subsidiary received court approval for their restructuring plans, marking a significant step in optimizing their asset-liability structure and enhancing operational sustainability [2] - As the first national real estate company in A-shares to complete judicial restructuring, Kinsford's approach provides a model for addressing industry risks through asset isolation, debt restructuring, and strategic transformation [2] - Challenges remain in the execution of the restructuring plan, particularly concerning coordination difficulties and the efficiency of resource introduction [2] Group 3 - Ocean Group announced the resumption of trading for several company bonds, which may provide liquidity for debt restructuring efforts [3] - The resumption is limited to professional institutional investors and full-price settlement, potentially affecting market pricing efficiency [3] - The event reflects the complexity of credit recovery in the real estate sector, with companies exploring various channels to alleviate financial pressure [3] Group 4 - Country Garden is focused on ensuring housing delivery and restoring normal operations, with significant investments directed towards these goals [4] - The company's strategy emphasizes prioritizing delivery and debt relief amid liquidity crises, particularly for non-state-owned leading real estate firms [4] - The efficiency of debt restructuring and the pace of sales recovery will be critical for the company's return to normal operations [4] Group 5 - Six residential projects were launched in Shanghai, totaling approximately 85,500 square meters and 734 units, covering multiple districts [5] - The acceleration of diverse product supply is expected to facilitate market clearing, benefiting firms with differentiated product capabilities and effective land cost management [5] - Leading companies are adopting joint development strategies to mitigate risks, while investors should monitor project absorption rates and the impact of sales restrictions on cash flow [5]

Core Viewpoint - Country Garden's latest annual report indicates a narrowing of net losses by 82.5% compared to 2023, suggesting signs of bottoming out in profit data, despite ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [2][4][9]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Country Garden's total revenue is approximately 25.28 billion yuan, with equity contract sales amounting to about 47.2 billion yuan and sales area around 492 million square meters [2]. - The company has achieved a cumulative delivery of approximately 1.7 million units over the past three years, maintaining a leading position in the industry [2][7]. Debt Restructuring - The company is actively communicating with stakeholders regarding the restructuring of its overseas debt, aiming for a reasonable extension of debt terms and a reduction in financing costs [5]. - Completion of the overseas debt restructuring is expected to yield significant restructuring gains, potentially improving the asset-debt situation substantially [5]. Operational Strategies - Country Garden has implemented measures to ensure housing delivery, including promoting sales and asset revitalization, which has led to over 60 billion yuan in cash recovery since 2022 [7]. - The company has reduced non-core operational expenditures by 40.2% in 2024, optimizing its organizational structure to enhance resource efficiency [7]. Market Outlook - Recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market have fostered a more optimistic outlook for the industry, with signs of recovery in housing demand and sales [10]. - The company expresses confidence in returning to normal operations, supported by a strong asset base, an excellent team, and ongoing family backing [10].

来源｜证券时报 十四届全国人大三次会议9日下午举行记者会，民政部、人力资源和社会保障部、住房和城乡建设部、国家卫健委四位负责人就相关问题回答中外记者提 问。 住房和城乡建设部部长倪虹表示，将实施一批惠民生、促发展、防风险的更新项目，其中在民生项目，将着力抓三件事： 一是把2000年以前建成的城市老旧小区都要纳入城市更新的改造范围，因地制宜实施改造，也鼓励地方探索居民自主更新改造老旧住宅。 二是城中村改造，现在范围已经扩大到全国地级及以上城市，要在去年新增100万套基础上，再继续扩大改造规模。 * 本文不代表凤凰网财经观点，转载已获授权。 【 热门视频推荐 】 点击在 看 持续关注↓↓↓ 倪虹表示，住房城乡建设部将会同有关部门，坚持长短结合、标本兼治，坚决"稳住楼市"。要巩固政策"组合拳"效果，把降息、增贷、减税等政策效应充 分释放出来，惠及更多人民群众；继续打好"保交房"攻坚战，切实维护购房人合法权益；加大"白名单"贷款投放力度，按照"应进尽进、应贷尽贷"的要 求，将符合条件的房地产项目全部纳入"白名单"， 提供有力的融资支持，充分保障项目建设交付。 倪虹在回答为人民群众建设"好房子"有关问题时表示，推动建设 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China has experienced a significant downturn since its peak in 2021, with official statistics indicating a decline of approximately 15%, while some commercial estimates suggest a drop of 25-30% [1][22][23]. This decline not only represents a loss of wealth but also a decrease in liquidity. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The adjustment in the real estate sector is influenced by various factors, including the geopolitical context of the US-China rivalry, which has led to a shift in resource allocation from real estate to high-tech industries [3][6][7]. - The introduction of the "three red lines" and "two red lines" policies aimed to regulate real estate financing, contributing to the industry's downturn [5][6]. - The pre-sale system in China has created a unique market dynamic where a significant portion of financing comes from homebuyers, leading to a complex debt structure for developers [18][19][20]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The real estate sector's decline has resulted in a substantial reduction in household wealth, with real estate accounting for 50-60% of family assets, and an estimated wealth of 300 trillion yuan at the peak in 2021 [22][23]. - The downturn has severely impacted upstream and downstream industries, particularly construction and related services, leading to significant job losses [25][26][27]. - Local government finances have also been adversely affected, with land sale revenues dropping by approximately 80% in some areas, significantly impacting overall fiscal health [28][30][31]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - There is a growing consensus on the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, with a focus on ensuring housing delivery and removing unnecessary restrictions [34][35][36]. - Restoring consumer confidence is critical, as many buyers are hesitant to purchase homes due to concerns about timely delivery and quality [37][39][40]. - The concept of "保交房" (ensuring housing delivery) is seen as essential for market clearing, as it addresses the underlying debt issues faced by developers [41][45][57]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The recovery of the real estate market by 2025 hinges on effective policy measures and restoring confidence among consumers and developers [33][38][40]. - The current market situation is characterized by a mismatch between supply and demand, with many homes sold but not yet completed, complicating the recovery process [48][49]. - A strategic approach to managing distressed developers, including potential government intervention, is necessary to stabilize the market and restore trust [64][71][72].

Core Viewpoint - The government work report emphasizes the dual focus on risk prevention and market stabilization in the real estate sector, aiming to promote demand and optimize supply while ensuring housing delivery and quality [3][4][5]. Group 1: Risk Prevention and Market Stabilization - The report identifies risk prevention as the primary task for the real estate sector, highlighting the need to manage risks associated with key enterprises and ensure no systemic risks arise [4][5]. - Local governments are encouraged to implement measures to stabilize the real estate market, with over 14 provinces already committing to "stop the decline and stabilize" the market [4][5]. - The report introduces the "Financial 16 Measures" to alleviate liquidity pressures on quality real estate companies, with a focus on ensuring housing delivery [4][5][11]. Group 2: Demand Side Measures - The report advocates for the reduction of restrictive measures tailored to local conditions, aiming to stimulate both rigid and improvement housing demand [6][8]. - Emphasis is placed on accelerating the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing, which is expected to enhance purchasing power and improve mortgage expectations [6][8]. - Various cities, including Jiangsu, Anhui, Guangdong, and Fujian, are already implementing urban village and dilapidated housing renovations to support market recovery [6][8]. Group 3: Supply Side Optimization - The report outlines a strategy to optimize new supply and revitalize existing inventory, focusing on controlling new land supply while enhancing urban renewal efforts [8][9]. - Local governments are granted greater autonomy in the acquisition of existing residential properties, with an emphasis on utilizing special bonds for land acquisition and inventory reduction [8][9]. - The government plans to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds to support investment in construction, land acquisition, and the purchase of existing properties [8][9][24]. Group 4: New Development Model - A new development model for the real estate sector is proposed, focusing on high-quality housing that meets the diverse needs of the population [13][15]. - The model emphasizes the importance of quality in development, with a shift from quantity-driven growth to a focus on sustainable and innovative practices [15][16]. - The report highlights the need for a balanced approach to land supply and housing demand, ensuring that housing quality aligns with the expectations of residents [13][15]. Group 5: Economic and Employment Goals - The government sets a GDP growth target of around 5% and aims to create over 12 million new urban jobs, linking economic stability to housing consumption [19][20]. - Policies are designed to enhance residents' income and employment, which are crucial for boosting housing demand and consumer confidence [19][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of a coordinated policy approach to ensure effective implementation and positive market expectations [19][20].

中指丨从地方两会看2025年楼市政策方 向 中指研究院 中国房地产指数系统 前瞻 | 从地方两会看 2025 年楼市政策方向 目前，全国 31 个省市两会均已落幕，促进房地产市场止跌回稳是各地 2025 年重点工作任务之一， 各地关于房地产的表述延续了 2024 年底中央经济工作会议的基调，主要围绕推进城市更新、加力实施城 中村和危旧房改造、保交房等方面，各省市的工作部署有不同的侧重点。从地方政府工作报告的关键词， 我们可以一定程度预先窥见全国两会中对于房地产工作的侧重方向。 1、多数省市 2025 年 GDP 增长目标设定在 5%以上，约半数地区目标增速与 2024 年持平 当前 31 个省市均公布了 2025 年 GDP 目标增速，多数省市增长目标设定在 5%以上，青海目标增速在 本报告数据来自中指数据 CREIS。详情请查询 https://www.cih-index.com 或致电 400-630-1230、010-56319088。 实现GDP （亿元）↓ GDP同比增速 GDP目标增速 GDP目标增速 较2024年目标 1 广东 141633.8 3.5% 5%左右 5%左右 持平 2 江苏 13 ...