Workflow
三重支撑
icon
Search documents
树欲静而风不停
Guotou Securities· 2026-03-29 10:14
- The report maintains the view that the 2026 market trend is highly similar to the 2021 market trend, with the current adjustment rhythm closely matching the March 2021 adjustment path[2][8] - The market index has found support near the Q3 2025 consolidation platform, confirming the previous judgment that the market would stabilize and maintain consolidation in this area[2][8] - From a technical analysis perspective, the recent low point demonstrates a "triple support" logic: (1) measured space support, where the current correction precisely matches the 1:1 proportional adjustment of the previous "M head" pattern breakdown; (2) chip concentration support, as the low point touches the lower boundary of the Q3 2025 consolidation platform; (3) key moving average support, as the low point aligns closely with the 200-day moving average (bull-bear dividing line)[9] - The cycle analysis model indicates that the market has released initial stabilization signals, resonating with the "triple support" logic, providing a high probability of stabilization in the current area[9] - Despite internal technical conditions supporting stabilization, external uncertainties such as geopolitical tensions and significant U.S. stock market corrections on Friday have created a "tree wants to be still but the wind won't stop" market environment[9] - Historical review of asset performance during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict shows that under similar macro conditions, U.S. bond yields rose significantly more than Chinese bonds, and the rebound timing of A-shares was notably ahead of U.S. stocks, suggesting strong independence in the trends of Chinese and U.S. bonds and equities during global macro shocks[9] - The report concludes that under multiple technical supports, A-shares are expected to demonstrate resilience during external fluctuations, recommending strategic patience during market consolidation and seizing structural opportunities within the consolidation range[9]