- The report maintains the view that the 2026 market trend is highly similar to the 2021 market trend, with the current adjustment rhythm closely matching the March 2021 adjustment path[2][8] - The market index has found support near the Q3 2025 consolidation platform, confirming the previous judgment that the market would stabilize and maintain consolidation in this area[2][8] - From a technical analysis perspective, the recent low point demonstrates a "triple support" logic: (1) measured space support, where the current correction precisely matches the 1:1 proportional adjustment of the previous "M head" pattern breakdown; (2) chip concentration support, as the low point touches the lower boundary of the Q3 2025 consolidation platform; (3) key moving average support, as the low point aligns closely with the 200-day moving average (bull-bear dividing line)[9] - The cycle analysis model indicates that the market has released initial stabilization signals, resonating with the "triple support" logic, providing a high probability of stabilization in the current area[9] - Despite internal technical conditions supporting stabilization, external uncertainties such as geopolitical tensions and significant U.S. stock market corrections on Friday have created a "tree wants to be still but the wind won't stop" market environment[9] - Historical review of asset performance during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict shows that under similar macro conditions, U.S. bond yields rose significantly more than Chinese bonds, and the rebound timing of A-shares was notably ahead of U.S. stocks, suggesting strong independence in the trends of Chinese and U.S. bonds and equities during global macro shocks[9] - The report concludes that under multiple technical supports, A-shares are expected to demonstrate resilience during external fluctuations, recommending strategic patience during market consolidation and seizing structural opportunities within the consolidation range[9]

- The report discusses a **cycle analysis model**, which observes the market's monthly upward trend since early 2024, despite recent adjustments and a temporary break below the rising channel. This model suggests that the overall risk remains controllable, even if there is a future pullback, as the high-frequency temperature gauge of major broad-based indices remains below 20, indicating a relatively low level [1][9] - The **industry divergence indicator** is highlighted, showing that the divergence among primary industries has dropped to a historically low level. Historically, this indicator tends to rise again when the market restarts, potentially signaling the emergence of a sustainable market theme. The report notes that the TMT sector, which previously adjusted, is showing signs of renewed capital attention [2][9] - The **Four-Drive Model** provides insights into specific sectors. It identifies potential rebounds in the small-cap growth sector, coal sector, semiconductor materials and equipment sector, and sci-tech materials sector. These sectors are noted for signals such as low-cycle absorption, volume contraction during adjustments, and signs of stabilization or rebound after significant corrections [3][6][11]

- Model Name: Four-Wheel Drive Industry Rotation Model; Model Construction Idea: The model suggests focusing on specific sectors based on their recent performance and potential opportunities; Model Construction Process: The model tracks the trading volume and performance of various sectors, identifying potential opportunities based on significant changes in trading volume and performance metrics. The model specifically suggests focusing on sectors like media, retail, agriculture, communication, non-ferrous metals, machinery, and computers[2][9][15]; Model Evaluation: The model is effective in identifying sectors with potential for rotation and growth[2][9][15] - Model Backtesting Results: - Four-Wheel Drive Industry Rotation Model, Sharpe Ratio for Agriculture sector: 19[15]

- The "All-weather model" issued a technical risk signal, indicating potential market consolidation in the near term[1][7] - The "Cycle analysis model" monitors trends at different levels, suggesting the current adjustment is limited to the post-May 1st rally, with no evidence of the broader uptrend since early April ending[1][7] - The "Four-wheel drive industry rotation model" recommends focusing on sectors such as military, home appliances, agriculture, automotive, electronics, computers, and non-bank financials during the consolidation phase[7][16]