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国盛证券:数据中心电力需求高增 驱动地热需求量价齐升
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-01-20 07:15
Core Viewpoint - The demand for geothermal energy in the U.S. is expected to rise significantly due to the increasing power needs of data centers, driven by major tech companies like Meta and Google, which are investing in geothermal power agreements [1][2]. Group 1: Geothermal Energy Potential - Global geothermal installed capacity is approximately 16.5 GW, with the U.S. accounting for 3.9 GW, representing about 24% of the global total [1]. - The potential geothermal capacity worldwide is estimated at around 162 GW, nearly ten times the current installed capacity, with the U.S. and Asia (primarily Indonesia) having potential capacities of approximately 35.0 GW and 74.3 GW, respectively [1]. Group 2: Major Contracts and Developments - Meta has signed a 150 MW geothermal power purchase agreement with SageGeosystems for 2024, with the first phase expected to be operational by 2027, and another 150 MW agreement with XGSEnergy for its New Mexico data center, expected to be completed by 2030 [2]. - Google has entered into a 115 MW geothermal energy agreement with Fervo Energy and NVEnergy for its Nevada data center, utilizing next-generation enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) technology [2]. Group 3: Pricing Trends - The purchase price for geothermal energy for AI data centers has risen to $100/MWh, reflecting a more than 45% increase compared to 2024 [2]. - Ormat's financial reports indicate ongoing discussions for geothermal projects with major cloud service providers and data centers, with project sizes around 250 MW and purchase prices exceeding $100/MWh [2]. Group 4: Key Investment Targets - Kaishan Holdings (300257.SZ) has four geothermal projects under construction in the U.S., totaling approximately 62-79 MW. If priced at $100/MWh, these projects are expected to generate revenues of $0.5-0.7 million [2].