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当还不起房贷的人变多,银行如何“甩包袱”?
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-11-28 06:49
Core Viewpoint - The issuance of non-performing asset-backed securities (ABS) is becoming a normalized practice among banks, serving as a crucial tool for managing non-performing assets and mitigating systemic risks in the current economic environment [3][4][5]. Group 1: Non-Performing Asset Management - Non-performing asset securitization is increasingly recognized as an important institutional tool for commercial banks to revitalize existing assets and prevent systemic risks [3][4]. - Several banks, including Bohai Bank, China Construction Bank, and China Merchants Bank, have recently issued ABS backed by non-performing personal housing loans, indicating a trend towards structured financial products [3][4][5]. - The structure of these ABS typically includes a priority/subordinate tier, fixed interest rates, and relies on the realization of collateral to support cash flows, despite the underlying assets being classified as "non-performing" [3][5][6]. Group 2: Asset Quality and Recovery - The weighted average overdue period for the underlying assets in the recent Bohai Bank ABS issuance is 15.95 months, with a loss loan ratio of 56.60%, indicating a higher risk exposure compared to similar projects from other banks [6][10]. - The expected recovery rate for the underlying assets is 40.26%, with a total market value of collateral estimated at 1.184 billion yuan, but the realizable value is projected to be only 459 million yuan due to various factors [5][10]. - The current economic backdrop, including high household leverage and a slow increase in mortgage delinquency rates, is pressuring banks to actively manage their non-performing assets [4][10]. Group 3: Systemic Risk and Future Outlook - The current issuance of non-performing housing loan ABS is accompanied by common risks, including potential higher-than-expected issuance rates and limitations in due diligence that may leave some asset flaws unidentified [11][12]. - While securitization helps banks offload risks, it does not eliminate them, as risks may transfer to non-bank investors who may lack the expertise to manage these assets effectively [11][12]. - Historical data suggests that existing provisions could release at least 800 billion yuan in net profit for listed banks over the next few years, supporting the stability of overall net profits despite potential challenges [2][12].