Core Viewpoint - The issuance of non-performing asset-backed securities (ABS) is becoming a normalized practice among banks, serving as a crucial tool for managing non-performing assets and mitigating systemic risks in the current economic environment [3][4][5]. Group 1: Non-Performing Asset Management - Non-performing asset securitization is increasingly recognized as an important institutional tool for commercial banks to revitalize existing assets and prevent systemic risks [3][4]. - Several banks, including Bohai Bank, China Construction Bank, and China Merchants Bank, have recently issued ABS backed by non-performing personal housing loans, indicating a trend towards structured financial products [3][4][5]. - The structure of these ABS typically includes a priority/subordinate tier, fixed interest rates, and relies on the realization of collateral to support cash flows, despite the underlying assets being classified as "non-performing" [3][5][6]. Group 2: Asset Quality and Recovery - The weighted average overdue period for the underlying assets in the recent Bohai Bank ABS issuance is 15.95 months, with a loss loan ratio of 56.60%, indicating a higher risk exposure compared to similar projects from other banks [6][10]. - The expected recovery rate for the underlying assets is 40.26%, with a total market value of collateral estimated at 1.184 billion yuan, but the realizable value is projected to be only 459 million yuan due to various factors [5][10]. - The current economic backdrop, including high household leverage and a slow increase in mortgage delinquency rates, is pressuring banks to actively manage their non-performing assets [4][10]. Group 3: Systemic Risk and Future Outlook - The current issuance of non-performing housing loan ABS is accompanied by common risks, including potential higher-than-expected issuance rates and limitations in due diligence that may leave some asset flaws unidentified [11][12]. - While securitization helps banks offload risks, it does not eliminate them, as risks may transfer to non-bank investors who may lack the expertise to manage these assets effectively [11][12]. - Historical data suggests that existing provisions could release at least 800 billion yuan in net profit for listed banks over the next few years, supporting the stability of overall net profits despite potential challenges [2][12].

这一动向背后，正值房地产市场持续承压、居民杠杆高企、按揭不良率缓慢抬升的宏观背景下。尽管监管层通过LPR调降、存量房贷利率下调等 政策缓解居民还款压力，但银行体系对不良资产的主动管理意愿明显增强。证券化正成为银行转移风险、优化报表、释放资本的重要路径。 不良房贷ABS发行常态化 当前，不良个人住房抵押贷款资产支持证券已进入常态化发行阶段。渤海银行本期入池资产全部为截至初始起算日处于不良状态的个人住房抵押 贷款，整体预计回收率为40.26%。入池资产共计950笔，全部设定了房产抵押，抵押物市场评估总值达11.84亿元。然而，在综合考虑法拍折价、 处置周期、区域流动性等因素后，预计可实现的房地产变现价值仅为4.59亿元。 更值得关注的是资产质量指标：本期证券入池资产加权平均逾期期数为15.95个月，损失类贷款占比高达56.60%。这一比例显著高于同期建设银行 （3.09%）、中信银行（11.42%）和中国银行（17.64%）等同类项目，反映出底层资产风险暴露程度更深，也一定程度上提高了债权回收的不确 定性。 尽管如此，此类证券仍普遍采用"优先/次级"分层结构以实现内部信用增级。渤海银行本期优先档发行规模2.32亿 ...