专项债土地收储

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2025年6月房地产市场跟踪:专项债土地收储加速,行业延续止跌回稳态势
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-07-01 07:49
Group 1: Report Core View - The implementation of policies allowing special bonds for land reserve acquisition has led to an acceleration of land acquisition, helping the real - estate industry continue its trend of stopping the decline and stabilizing. The policy can optimize resource allocation, relieve corporate financial pressure, and stabilize market expectations. Additionally, the industry shows signs of a slow recovery in multiple aspects, but still faces challenges [2][3][7] Group 2: Policy and Land Acquisition - Since the policy of allowing special bonds for land reserve acquisition was introduced, as of June 22, 2025, over 4,200 land parcel acquisition plans have been announced, with a capital scale of nearly 477.7 billion yuan. Only 36% of the announced scale of special bonds has been issued, and subsequent issuance is expected to speed up. The planned land acquisition is mainly residential land, and most of the land to be acquired belongs to local state - owned enterprises [2][3][5] - In 2025, the "Government Work Report" proposed to allocate 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, 50 billion yuan more than the previous year, with land acquisition being one of the key uses. Guangdong was the first province to issue 30.4 billion yuan of special bonds for land acquisition in February 2024. As of June 24, 2025, multiple regions have issued special bonds for land acquisition, with a total issuance scale of about 170 billion yuan [5] Group 3: Market Conditions in May 2025 Demand Side - In May, the month - on - month decline of commercial residential prices continued, and the number of cities with rising prices decreased. However, the year - on - year decline in prices has been narrowing for 7 consecutive months. The year - on - year decline in the sales area and sales amount of commercial housing in May was 4.56% and 7.14% respectively, but the month - on - month growth was 10.34% and 13.14%. The overall performance in the first 5 months was stable. In early June, the performance of different - tier cities was differentiated [9] Supply Side - In May, the total transaction price and premium rate of land in a hundred cities decreased, with significant differentiation among cities. The new construction area remained at a low level, and the cumulative decline in the completed area slightly increased. The unsold area of commercial housing has decreased for 3 consecutive months but is still at a high level. The real - estate development investment scale from January to May decreased by 10.70% year - on - year [10] - In the second - hand housing market, the year - on - year decline in the price index further narrowed, and the month - on - month decline slightly increased. The transaction volume of second - hand housing in 30 key cities decreased by 10% month - on - month and increased slightly by 4% year - on - year, with a slowdown in growth. High - energy - level cities showed strong resilience, but the market was differentiated [10] Bond Market - In May, the domestic bond financing amount decreased month - on - month, and the net financing was still in a net outflow state, with all issuers being central and state - owned enterprises. There was no overseas bond issuance by real - estate enterprises in May, but Xincheng Development successfully issued 300 million US dollars of senior notes in June. From June 27 to the end of July, the domestic bond maturity scale of real - estate enterprises is 35.012 billion yuan, and there are some key enterprises with relatively large maturity scales [11] - In the secondary market, the average daily trading volume of domestic bonds of real - estate enterprises decreased slightly in May, and the trading enthusiasm weakened. The prices of bonds of Chinese real - estate enterprises in the overseas market have not fluctuated significantly since May [12] Group 4: Challenges in Policy Implementation - The special bond land acquisition work faces challenges, including insufficient funds to cover project debts, uncertain future land transfer revenues, and a relatively single subject structure of the land to be acquired [6]