Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for targeted improvements in the issuance rhythm, regional adaptation, and risk control policies to further unleash the effectiveness of special bonds in supporting urban development and stabilizing the real estate market [1]. Group 1: Special Bonds and Real Estate Market - Since the second half of 2025, urban high-quality development has gained importance in central government discussions, with special bonds being utilized to promote urban renewal, land recovery, and affordable housing construction [3][4]. - The issuance of special bonds related to real estate is expected to significantly increase, with a projected growth of over 600 billion yuan compared to 2024, potentially driving 870 billion yuan in new home transactions, which is about 9% of the 2024 total sales [7][45][47]. - The issuance of land reserve special bonds has accelerated, with 2,639 billion yuan issued by the end of July 2025, indicating a 10% increase compared to the same period in 2019 [15][57]. Group 2: Structural Changes and Investment Focus - The proportion of special bonds directed towards real estate has significantly increased, averaging 43% since the second quarter of 2025, compared to a maximum of 20% in 2024 [20][23]. - The focus on land reserves and affordable housing projects has surged, with financing for urban village renovations and affordable housing increasing by 3.2 times compared to the previous year [17][21]. - The top ten cities accounted for 41% of the total special bond financing, with Beijing leading at 823 billion yuan, which is more than 500 billion yuan higher than any other city [30][33]. Group 3: Regional Distribution and Urban Development - Over 40% of real estate special bonds are directed towards the East China region, aligning with population distribution and reflecting the "people-land-housing-money" linkage mechanism [25][26]. - The issuance of special bonds in third and fourth-tier cities has reached 50% of the total, indicating a strong push towards new urbanization [37][58]. - Cities like Langfang have seen significant improvements in long-term supply and demand expectations due to the rapid advancement of special bond financing for urban renewal projects [48][52]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations and Future Outlook - To maximize the effectiveness of special bonds, it is recommended to streamline the approval process for land reserve bonds and prioritize financing for idle land recovery projects [55]. - A systematic policy framework is suggested to enhance the efficiency of land resource allocation and ensure sustainable funding for special bond projects [56]. - The article concludes that the rapid growth of real estate special bonds is a timely measure to mitigate risks and reshape the market supply-demand ecosystem, with a focus on transitioning from "blood transfusion" to "blood production" functions [56][60].