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潮宏基(002345):东方时尚国潮珠宝,品牌势能持续释放
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-07-01 11:14
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][8]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading brand in the oriental fashion jewelry sector, with a focus on mid-to-high-end fashion consumer goods. It has successfully expanded its brand influence and market presence through strategic partnerships and product diversification [7][10]. - The company is expected to benefit from rising gold prices and its ongoing expansion of franchise stores, which will enhance its market penetration and long-term performance outlook [10][51]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of June 27, 2025, the closing price is 13.70 yuan, with a market capitalization of 12,172.62 million yuan and a circulating market value of 11,877.96 million yuan. The stock has seen a one-year high of 18.18 yuan and a low of 4.02 yuan [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 79.0 billion yuan, 90.5 billion yuan, and 99.4 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.2%, 14.6%, and 9.8% respectively. The expected net profit for the same period is 4.7 billion yuan, 5.6 billion yuan, and 6.6 billion yuan, with growth rates of 140.9%, 20.6%, and 17.7% respectively. The current price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 26, 22, and 18 times [6][51]. Business Model and Brand Strategy - The company operates three main brands: "CHJ潮宏基," "ADELE VENTI梵迪," and "FION菲安妮," focusing on jewelry and fashion handbags. It emphasizes the integration of traditional craftsmanship with modern design to appeal to younger consumers [7][14]. - The company is expanding its franchise model domestically and has initiated international expansion into Southeast Asia, with plans to open stores in Malaysia and Thailand [7][45]. Revenue Contribution and Growth Drivers - In 2024, the revenue contribution from self-operated, franchise, and wholesale channels is projected to be 30.2 billion yuan, 32.8 billion yuan, and 1.9 billion yuan respectively. The franchise model is expected to grow significantly, with the number of franchise stores increasing to 1,268 by the end of 2024 [7][33]. - The company is leveraging cultural elements and popular IP collaborations to enhance product offerings and attract a younger demographic [26][28]. Competitive Positioning - The company is compared with peers such as Lao Feng Xiang, China Gold, and Zhou Dazheng, with a focus on its unique positioning as a leading oriental fashion jewelry brand. The report suggests that the company is well-positioned to capitalize on market trends and consumer preferences [10][51].