中价茶饮细分赛道
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东吴证券:维持古茗“买入”评级 未来看好中价茶饮细分赛道龙头持续保持较快增长
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-23 08:53
Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Guming (01364) and keeps previous profit forecasts, expecting adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 to be 2.19, 2.50, and 2.88 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 44%, 14%, and 15%, with corresponding PE ratios of 24, 21, and 18 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Guming is positioned as a leading player in the mid-priced tea beverage market, with high quality-price ratio and stable quality control enhancing sales momentum [1] - The company is expected to achieve a store count of 35,000 to 40,000 in the future, supported by systematic advantages in operational efficiency and store layout [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The domestic ready-to-drink tea market is projected to exceed 500 billion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 15% [1] - There is significant room for market share consolidation in the mid-priced tea segment compared to coffee and affordable tea markets, indicating potential for Guming's market share to increase [1] - Consumer repurchase rates are critical for market share competition, with Guming expected to maintain strong repurchase performance due to solid supply chain construction and store management [1]