证券研究报告·海外公司点评·食物饮品(HS) 古茗（01364.HK） 2025 年中期业绩点评：业绩超预期，门店扩 张与单店经营提升 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 7,676 | 8,791 | 12,315 | 13,576 | 15,590 | | 同比(%) | 38.07 | 14.54 | 40.08 | 10.24 | 14.83 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,080 | 1,479 | 2,685 | 2,495 | 2,881 | | 同比(%) | 194.48 | 36.95 | 81.61 | (7.09) | 15.47 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.45 | 0.62 | 1.13 | 1.05 | 1.21 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 47.30 | 34.54 | 19.02 | 20.47 | 17.73 | [Table_Tag ...

近日，古茗发布2025年半年报。披露公司上半年营收增长41.2%至56.63亿元，母公司占有人应占利润提高 121.5%至16.25亿元。上半年，门店网络覆盖中国超过200个城市，包括 11,179家门店，较上年同期的9516家门店增长17.5%。 | | | 截至6月30日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025 年 | | 2 | | | 門店數量 | % 門店數: | | | 一線城市 | 318 | 3 | 28 | | 新一線城市 | 1,812 | 16 | 1,68 | | 二線及以下城市 | 9,049 | 81 | 7,55 | | 一二線城市 | 3,207 | 29 | 2,74 | | 一三線城市 | 3,063 | 27 | 2,52 | | 一四線及以下城市 | 2,779 | 25 | 2,2 | | 總 計 | 11,179 | 100 | 9,51 | | | | 截至6月30 | | | | | 2025年 | | | 期初門店數量 | | | 9,914 | | 期内開業門店數量 | | | 1,570 | | 期内關閉門店數量 | ...

近日，古茗发布2025年半年报。披露公司上半年营收增长41.2%至56.63亿元，母公司占有人应占利润提高 121.5%至16.25亿元。上半年，门店网络覆盖中国 超过200个城市，包括11,179家门店，较上年同期的9516家门店增长17.5%。 | | | 截至6月30日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025年 | | 2 | | | 門店數量 | % | 門店數: | | 一線城市 | 318 | 3 | 28 | | 新一線城市 | 1,812 | 16 | 1,68 | | 二線及以下城市 | 9.049 | 81 | 7,55 | | 一二線城市 | 3.207 | 29 | 2.74 | | 一三線城市 | 3.063 | 27 | 2,52 | | 一四線及以下城市 | 2.779 | 25 | 2,2: | | 總計 | 11,179 | 100 | 9.51 | | | | 截至6月30 | | | | | | 2025年 | | 期初門店數量 | | | 9.914 | | 期內開業門店數量 | | | 1,570 | | 期內閣 閉 | | | ...

古茗表示，品牌相信，二线及以下城市和各线级城市的乡、镇，代表庞大的尚未开发的市场，具有巨大 潜力。截至2025年6月30日，古茗在二线及以下城市的门店数量占总门店数量的81%，较截至2024年6月 30日的79%轻微增长。此外，截至2025年6月30日，古茗位于乡、镇(其通常是远离市中心的行政区域)的 门店比例较截至2024年6月30日的39%进一步增长至43%，表明品牌有能力进一步深化在中国低线市场 的布局。 北京商报讯(记者张天元)8月26日，茶饮品牌古茗发布截至2025年6月30日止六个月中期业绩。数据显 示，古茗收入约56.63亿元(人民币，下同)，同比增加41.2%；期内利润约16.26亿元，同比增加119.8%； 每股基本盈利0.72元。 门店规模上，截至2025年6月30日，古茗门店网络覆盖中国超过200个各线级城市，包括11179家门店， 较截至2024年6月30日的9516家门店增长17.5%。古茗表示，至2025年6月30日止六个月，古茗新店的开 业速度较2024年上半年快，主要因为现制茶饮店市场复苏，同时，古茗调整了门店扩张策略，并为加盟 商开设新店推出优惠政策。此外，截至2025年6月 ...

而在国内市场，一直聚焦三四线城市的幸运咖，近期正在以长三角、珠三角为代表的一二线城市加速扩 张，预计在今年年底实现门店破万。 在门店扩张和出海方面，幸运咖背后的蜜雪冰城都深谙其道。蜜雪冰城目前是全球门店数量最多的现制 茶饮品牌。截至2025年初，蜜雪冰城全球门店总数已超过4.6万家，位于中国内地以外的门店数量已近 5000家，其中东南亚市场门店数量占比超80%。 2020年，创立二十年有余的蜜雪冰城全球门店数量破万，它进行了成立以来、IPO之前的唯一一次融资 ——由美团龙珠、高瓴投资、CPE源峰三家头部机构联合投资，总额超20亿元，投后估值超200亿元。 图片来源：视觉中国 8月中旬，蜜雪冰城的出海版图更进一步。据市场消息，其旗下咖啡品牌"幸运咖"正在筹备马来西亚五 家门店的开业，这或将是该品牌出海的第一站。据知情人士称，它与蜜雪冰城在马来西亚的市场定位相 似，主打平价市场。 拿到资金的这一年，蜜雪冰城在拓展本品牌门店数量之外，还全资收购了由其出资孵化的独立咖啡品牌 幸运咖，并开放加盟。时任总经理张红甫立下"五年内复制一个蜜雪冰城"的目标，并将幸运咖定位为集 团的第二增长曲线。 与瑞幸同样诞生于2017年的幸 ...

Group 1: Overseas Strategy - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its bullish trend in the second half of the year, outperforming the A-share market. The overall increase in Hong Kong stocks has been more significant than that of A-shares since the beginning of the year, driven by sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, and AI applications [1][2] - The current technology and consumer assets in the Hong Kong stock market align well with industry development trends and have superior fundamentals, which may attract continued capital inflows from the mainland [1][2] Group 2: Military Industry - The military industry is on an upward trend due to the intensifying great power competition, with increased defense spending being a necessary option. The focus of U.S. and allied defense strategies is gradually shifting towards the Indo-Pacific region, which may lead to heightened tensions around China [3][4] - The defense military index outperformed the market, rising by 0.66% during the week of July 26 to August 1, while the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.94% and 0.74%, respectively [4] Group 3: Consumer Services - Gu Ming, a leading player in the domestic ready-to-drink tea market, has significant supply chain and operational advantages, with broad growth potential. The company is focusing on high-frequency product innovation and strong franchisee management to ensure consistent store operations [8][9] - The ready-to-drink beverage market has substantial growth potential, particularly in lower-tier markets, driven by increasing consumer demand and the ongoing evolution of product categories [9][10] Group 4: Cosmetics - Lin Qingxuan, a pioneer in the "oil-based skincare" segment, has successfully established a high-end brand image through its camellia oil products. The company is focusing on product innovation and expanding its product categories to enhance its market presence [11][12] - The cosmetics market is projected to grow significantly, with the anti-wrinkle and firming skincare segment expected to reach a market size of 119.8 billion yuan by 2024, growing at a CAGR of 18.9% from 2024 to 2029 [11][12]

Core Insights - The fierce price war in the ready-to-drink tea market has led to the downfall of Xiangpiaopiao, marking it as the first casualty of the ongoing food delivery battle [1][7] - The rapid growth of ready-to-drink tea brands is significantly impacting traditional brewing markets, raising questions about the future of established brands like Xiangpiaopiao [2][12] Company Performance - Xiangpiaopiao reported a net loss of 97.39 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase in losses of 68 million yuan, marking its worst mid-year performance since going public [5][6] - The company's stock price has dropped over 60% since its peak in 2019, resulting in a market capitalization loss exceeding 8.4 billion yuan [5] Market Trends - The ready-to-drink tea segment has seen explosive growth, with brands like Nayuki and Mixue experiencing significant increases in order volumes, while Xiangpiaopiao struggles to maintain its market position [4][8] - The number of new tea drink stores is projected to rise from 378,000 in 2020 to 630,000 by 2025, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards ready-to-drink options [8] Competitive Landscape - New tea brands are rapidly innovating and introducing new products, while Xiangpiaopiao has stagnated with a limited product range, leading to a decline in sales volume from 45.59 million boxes in 2020 to 32.78 million boxes in 2024 [9][10] - The convenience of ready-to-drink options is reshaping consumer behavior, making traditional brewing methods less appealing [10][12] Strategic Challenges - Xiangpiaopiao's attempts to diversify into ready-to-drink products have faced challenges due to inconsistent brand positioning and competition from both new entrants and established players [15][18] - The company's marketing efforts have not effectively translated into market share gains, as it struggles to compete in both traditional and modern retail channels [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - Mixue Ice Cream has become a leading global fresh tea beverage company with over 46,000 stores worldwide since its establishment in 1997, supported by local government initiatives [1] Group 1: Government Support - The government has provided comprehensive support to Mixue Ice Cream, facilitating its transition from a local brand to a global chain [1] - Through initiatives like the "Learning, Inspection, Improvement, and Enterprise Observation" campaign, the government has actively listened to the company's needs and offered guidance on food safety, compliance, and operational support [1] - The government has also enhanced policies to assist companies in expanding into overseas markets, providing a platform for international cooperation [1] Group 2: Business Development Strategy - The company aims to optimize its product and service offerings while building a self-controlled, safe, and efficient digital supply chain [1] - Mixue Ice Cream is focused on innovating diverse consumption scenarios to inject new momentum into the retail industry's transformation and upgrading [1] - The continuous release of national policy dividends presents unprecedented development opportunities for the company [1]

Group 1 - The incident involving a customer at a Mixue Ice Cream store highlights potential service quality issues within the company, as the customer reported negative interactions with staff when attempting to pick up 30 ice creams [1] - The store's response indicates a recognition of the situation, with an apology issued to the customer and a commitment to enhance employee training [1] Group 2 - The coffee market in China is experiencing significant growth, with a 19.54% year-on-year increase in the registration of coffee-related enterprises in the first half of the year, indicating a strong trend towards coffee consumption [2] - Major tea beverage companies, including Mixue Group, are expanding into the fresh coffee sector, leveraging existing resources to reduce operational costs and enhance product offerings [2] - The compound annual growth rate for the fresh coffee market in China is projected to be 19.8% from 2023 to 2028, making it the fastest-growing segment in the ready-to-drink beverage market [2] Group 3 - Five coffee industry projects with a total signed amount of approximately 400 million yuan have been established in Changsha County, focusing on key areas such as coffee equipment research and development, roasting, product processing, and green bean trade [3] - The construction of the largest and most comprehensive coffee industry complex in Central and Southern China is underway in Hunan (Changsha) [3] Group 4 - The first industry standard for the new tea beverage sector has been officially released, addressing quality requirements for raw materials, inspection methods, packaging, transportation, and storage [4] - This standard, effective from January 1, 2026, aims to regulate various components used in the production of fresh tea beverages, including tea leaves, fruits, dairy products, and sweeteners [4]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the tea beverage industry, particularly in overseas markets, driven by cultural confidence and localization strategies [5][25][32]. Core Insights - The domestic tea beverage market is experiencing intensified competition, prompting brands to explore new markets abroad [3][8]. - Cultural confidence is empowering tea brands to seize opportunities in overseas markets, with a focus on localization and digitalization to drive growth [5][7][25]. - The Southeast Asian market presents a fragmented landscape with fierce competition in the mid-to-low-end segments, while opportunities exist in the high-end market [32][35]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The tea beverage market is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12% from 2020 to 2023, despite a decline in the domestic market [13][19]. - The report highlights the importance of adapting to local tastes and preferences in international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia [36][39]. Growth Drivers - Localization and digitalization are key drivers for the growth of tea brands in overseas markets, allowing them to better connect with consumers [7][25]. - The report emphasizes the need for brands to innovate and offer health-conscious options, such as low-sugar and low-calorie beverages, to meet changing consumer preferences [37][44]. Competitive Landscape - The Southeast Asian tea beverage market is characterized by a high degree of fragmentation, with numerous brands competing primarily in the mid-to-low-end segments [35][36]. - High-end market segments remain underdeveloped, presenting opportunities for brands like Heytea and Nayuki to expand their presence [35][36]. Regional Opportunities - In Southeast Asia, the report identifies key opportunities in health-oriented products and local flavor integration, which are crucial for market penetration [36][37]. - The report also notes that the UK market is ripe for innovation, particularly with the introduction of Asian flavors and health-focused beverages [56][57]. Strategic Recommendations - Brands are encouraged to leverage digital marketing and social media to enhance brand visibility and consumer engagement in international markets [121][125]. - The report suggests that a comprehensive understanding of local cultures and consumer behaviors is essential for successful market entry and growth [36][37].