证券研究报告 商贸零售 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 10 日 证券分析师 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 四部门鼓励每年最多开展四次春秋游，支持发放文旅消费券、 电影券；毛戈平与 LVMH 旗下基金达成战略合作 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——新消费行业周报（2026.1.5-2026.1.9） 投资要点： 风险提示：零售环境修复不及预期风险；国际局势变动风险；市场竞争加剧风险。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 近日全国总工会、文化和旅游部、国家电影局、国家体育总局联合印发《关于深入推进新时 代职工文体工作高质量发展 扩大职工文体消费的意见》，旨在系统推进职工文体工作，释放 消费潜力，满足广大职工日益增长的精神文化需求。《意见》的重点内容涵盖：1）创新职工 文体活动场景：拓展夜间、户外、社交、亲子等新型职工文体活动，鼓励利用商圈、工业遗 址、公园绿地、红色教育基地、电影放映场所等特色空间，开展沉浸式、互动式文化体验活 动；2）优化职工文体消费环境：鼓励提高工会经费中职工文体活动支出比例 ...

用零售思维做新式茶饮，本质是把"餐饮业态"转化为"零售业态"，从"一杯一杯地卖"变成"规模化、全渠道地卖"，最终实现更大市场规模与更稳定现金 流。 截至2025年，全国（不含港澳台）现制茶饮门店总量已突破41.5万家，全国30个代表性现制茶饮品牌门店总量已突破13.1万家。头部品牌"巨无霸"效应显 著，蜜雪冰城以4.38万家门店稳居首位，古茗1.2万家位列第二，霸王茶姬以1.01万家屈居第三。 从梯队分布看，门店规模破万家的品牌有3个，5000-10000家的品牌5个，1000-5000家的品牌12个。放眼全球饮品，再没有别的市场，会竞争如此激烈、 迭代如此频繁，能迸发出这样丰富的灵感与创新，锤炼出这样高效的模式与组织。 2025年，中国零售赛道的细分领域中，新式茶饮行业无疑是最具话题性与变革张力的板块之一。这一年，行业既迎来资本狂欢的高光时刻，也经历存量竞 争的深度调整，更在零售思维的持续渗透下，完成了从"规模扩张"到"价值深耕"的关键转身。 作为「零售商业财经」年度盘点系列的核心篇章，本文将聚焦新式茶饮行业的2025年全貌，拆解其在资本、市场、模式、供应链等维度的核心变革，探寻 行业在喧嚣与沉淀中的发展本 ...

湘财证券发布研报称，食品饮料行业作为必选消费核心赛道具备较强韧性，当前板块估值处于历史较低 水平，已充分定价消费复苏节奏放缓等偏弱基本面预期，叠加消费分化与结构升级主线明确，长期成长 逻辑清晰且估值修复空间可期，投资上应兼顾确定性与成长性，重点关注品牌渠道护城河深厚的龙头、 积极布局新兴趋势的成长型企业及具备盈利改善弹性的细分品类领导者，维持行业"买入"评级。建议关 注两大方向：一是凭借海量网点与精细化管理建立渠道壁垒、依托平台化模式持续推新的包装水和能量 饮料龙头，二是门店规模庞大、成本控制能力强且IP运营出色的现制茶饮龙头。 湘财证券主要观点如下： 现状：中国饮料市场的"多种模式"新常态 过去10年，是中国饮品行业消费需求变化、营销场景变化、渠道深刻变革的10年，人们从10年前喝饮料 选择的主要标准是为了解渴和口感舒爽，走向了关注是否健康包括含糖量、补水、补充维生素等多种需 求。现制饮料不断抢占中国饮料市场，这种个性化现制饮料同传统饮料组建成新型饮料市场。 产品维度：健康诉求与感官享受的"双轨制" 饮料消费市场的核心趋势是对健康诉求的追求。2014年之前，为"卖糖水"的时代，以"口感优先、价格 适中"为主 ...

2025年的香港交易所，俨然成为全球资本市场的焦点舞台，多股同日敲钟的盛况屡见不鲜，投资人戏谑"港交所的上市锣都快不够用了"。Wind统计数据显 示，截至当年12月25日，港股市场年内新增上市公司达111家，募资总额攀升至2505.61亿元，这两项核心数据较2024年均实现大幅增长。此前德勤、安永曾 预测，2025年港股IPO数量约为80家，募资额区间在1300-1500亿港元，而实际表现远超机构预期，港股也借此重新夺回全球新股市场募资额榜首的宝座。 拆解全年IPO版图，消费板块无疑是资本盛宴中最亮眼的存在。截至11月末，零售与消费行业IPO宗数突破23宗，位居各行业首位，蜜雪集团、沪上阿姨、 八马茶业等一众明星企业相继登陆港股。但狂欢之下，市场分化的裂痕已然显现：头部企业凭借强势竞争力收获资本热捧，而不少第二梯队品牌却陷入"上 市即破发"的尴尬境地，这一现象也折射出资本市场对消费企业的估值正加速回归理性——当资本潮水退去，唯有具备核心竞争力与全球化布局能力的企 业，才能在长期市场博弈中站稳脚跟。对赴港上市的企业而言，这既是突破自身增长瓶颈的集体选择，也意味着要接受更严苛的资本审视。 2025年港股IPO的爆 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic initiative, with multiple policies aimed at boosting consumption being introduced. The central economic work conference highlighted the need for a strong domestic market and specific measures to stimulate consumption [4] - The official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port marks a new phase in China's high-level opening-up, with significant increases in flight bookings to Hainan, indicating a positive trend in consumer behavior [4] - The report notes a robust growth in the beauty and skincare sector, with top brands maintaining their positions and new domestic brands showing significant growth, reflecting changing consumer preferences among younger generations [5][17] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The new consumption sector saw a weekly increase of 6.66% in the retail index from December 15 to December 19, 2025 [8] - The beauty and personal care sector increased by 2.87% during the same period [8] Policy Developments - The central government has introduced various measures to enhance service consumption, including promotional activities and optimizing service availability to meet diverse consumer needs [4] - A joint notification from multiple government departments aims to strengthen collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumption in key areas [4] Market Trends - In the beauty and skincare market, the top five brands include Proya, L'Oreal, Han Shu, Lancôme, and Estée Lauder, with domestic brands like Proya showing strong performance [5] - The report highlights a significant increase in sales for Hainan's duty-free shops, with a 90% year-on-year growth on the first day of the free trade port's operation [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality domestic brands in beauty and skincare, traditional gold jewelry brands favored by younger consumers, and strong tea beverage brands with extensive market coverage [17]

智通财经APP获悉，开源证券发布研报称，古茗(01364)依托"区域精耕"与供应链高效协同，成为门店规 模破万的行业头部品牌。公司聚焦下沉市场，配送成本低于行业平均，赋能加盟体系稳健扩张。看好其 在性价比赛道及全国空白区域的增长潜力，预计未来全国开店空间超4万家，首次覆盖给予"买入"评 级。 开源证券主要观点如下： 区域精耕+供应链赋能，古茗万店规模初具 据灼识咨询，2024年中国现制饮品市场规模破6000亿元，预计2027年破万亿。其中现制饮品为最大品 类，2024年现制茶饮市场规模3130亿元，预计2024-2028年CAGR15.8%。分价格/区域看：（1）预计中 价/平价现制茶饮市场规模增长潜力更大，2023-2028年CAGR分别为20.8%/20.1%；（2）下沉市场现制 饮品空间更为广阔，2018-2023年现制茶饮在三线/四线及以下城市GMV复合增速分别为28.0%/33.2%。 长期展望：据灼识咨询，2023年美国/中国现制饮品消费量占饮用水分摄入总量分别为19.2%/1.6%，国 内现制饮品渗透率仍有较大提升空间。 展望未来：供应链先行支撑门店加密，国内开店天花板有望超4万家 该行横向对标 ...

Core Insights - Mixue Group is the largest fresh beverage chain in China and a global leader, with 53,014 stores worldwide as of 1H25, including 48,281 in China and 4,733 overseas [1] - The fresh beverage market is experiencing significant growth, driven by consumer demand for upgraded ready-to-drink options, with a market share of 2.2% for Mixue Group, ranking it fourth globally by GMV in 2023 [1] Group 1: Business Model and Competitive Advantage - Mixue Group aims to achieve a "trinity total cost leadership" by focusing on supply chain, brand IP, and store operations [2] - The company has established a digital end-to-end supply chain and a procurement network covering 38 countries, with five major production bases [2] - The unique brand IP "Xue Wang" attracts a large consumer base, enhancing brand loyalty [2] Group 2: Expansion Strategy - The company plans to continue expanding in both domestic and international markets, targeting lower-tier cities in China and optimizing operations in Southeast Asia while exploring new markets in Central Asia and the Americas [2] - The introduction of sub-brands, such as Lucky Coffee and the recently acquired Fresh Beer brand, is expected to enhance the company's presence in the fresh beverage sector [2] Group 3: Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 33 billion, 38.4 billion, and 42.2 billion CNY, with net profits of 5.8 billion, 6.74 billion, and 7.5 billion CNY respectively [3] - The company is assigned a 25x PE valuation for 2026, leading to a target price of 482 HKD, reflecting its leading position in the global fresh beverage market [3]

Core Viewpoint - Haitong International projects that Mixue Group's revenue will reach 33 billion, 38.4 billion, and 42.2 billion CNY in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 5.8 billion, 6.74 billion, and 7.5 billion CNY for the same years, reflecting the company's leading position in the global ready-to-drink beverage industry [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Mixue Group is the largest ready-to-drink beverage chain in China and a global leader, with 53,014 stores worldwide as of the first half of 2025, including 48,281 in China and 4,733 overseas [2] - According to data from Zhaoshang Consulting, Mixue Group ranks as the fourth largest ready-to-drink beverage company globally, holding a market share of 2.2% based on GMV in 2023 [2] Group 2: Market Trends - The ready-to-drink beverage segment is experiencing growth driven by economic expansion and rising disposable incomes, leading to a shift in consumer preferences from instant beverages [3] - There are significant growth opportunities for ready-to-drink tea in lower-tier cities, with predictions indicating that most new stores will open in third-tier cities and below, benefiting Mixue's market share [3] Group 3: Competitive Strategy - Mixue Group aims to enhance its competitive edge through a "supply chain + brand IP + store operations" model, striving for a "trinity total cost leadership" [4] - The company has established a digital end-to-end supply chain and a procurement network across six continents and 38 countries, along with five production bases [4] - Mixue's unique brand IP, "Xue Wang," attracts a large consumer base, distinguishing it within the industry [4] - The company has maintained a net increase of approximately 8,000 stores annually since 2020, establishing a vast network of over 48,000 stores in China by the first half of 2025 [4] Group 4: Future Growth Opportunities - Mixue Group plans to penetrate untapped domestic markets while capitalizing on the rapid development of lower-tier cities, leveraging its strong supply chain and store management capabilities [5] - In the overseas market, the company aims for steady growth in Southeast Asia while gradually expanding into Central Asia and the Americas [5] - The establishment of the "Lucky Coffee" brand and the recent acquisition of the "Fresh Beer Fu Lu Jia" brand are expected to enhance Mixue's positioning in the ready-to-drink beverage sector [5]

Core Insights - The event themed "New Service and New Supply" aims to promote the development of the service industry in Henan Province, showcasing innovative business models and successful case studies [1][3]. Group 1: Supply Chain Innovations - Mixue Ice City has established a new supply model for fresh tea drinks through "vertical integration + scale effect," resulting in low costs and high sales volume [1]. - Zhongdamen International Logistics Group has innovated a cross-border logistics model using "pre-clearance + full cargo charter," reducing port stay times and promoting the integration of logistics, trade, and data [1]. - Strength Diamond has pioneered an integrated model of "R&D + manufacturing + services + cultural tourism," effectively driving the entire value chain from raw diamonds to end consumer products [1]. Group 2: Service Industry Development - Henan Province has recognized 129 new service supply brand enterprises and 61 key projects, with 75 new enterprises added to the reserve, creating a robust service industry matrix [3]. - The 58 exemplary enterprises include 16 production service models that leverage digital transformation, 21 lifestyle service benchmarks enhancing consumer quality, and 21 pioneers in service-oriented manufacturing [3]. Group 3: Digital Transformation and Innovation - Henan Xiangyu Medical Equipment Co., Ltd. shared its achievements in the fields of rehabilitation medical layout and smart elderly care [4]. - The Henan Museum has developed over 2,000 cultural and creative products, creating jobs for 15,000 people, showcasing the potential of cultural innovation [6]. - The province aims to focus on key industries and weak links during the 14th Five-Year Plan, implementing a new service supply cultivation project to foster high-quality service enterprises [6]. Group 4: Case Studies of New Supply Models - Notable case studies include Mixue Ice City, which aims to create a global supply of affordable beverages, and Banu Hot Pot, which integrates product and service innovation in the restaurant industry [8]. - Other examples include Yuanfang Smart Logistics, which leads modernization in logistics through digital transformation, and Zhengzhou Sunshine Home Service, which enhances community services through a unique operational model [8].

Group 1 - The core theme of the event held in Shangqiu City is "New Supply of Services and New Stage of Services," focusing on the integration of government, academia, enterprises, and finance to explore new trends and dynamics in service industry development [1][2] - The event released the "2025 New Service New Supply Brand Enterprise Typical Case Collection," showcasing innovative supply chain models and service networks from various companies, including Mixue Ice City and Zhongda International Logistics Group [1][2] - The initiative aims to cultivate a robust ecosystem for innovative service industry development, with a focus on enhancing the quality and efficiency of services [2][4] Group 2 - The provincial government has recognized 129 new service supply brand enterprises and 61 key projects, with an additional 75 enterprises in reserve, indicating a strong commitment to developing the service sector [2][3] - The typical cases highlighted include 16 production service exemplars like Fanrui Cloud Intelligence, 21 lifestyle service benchmarks such as Mixue Ice City, and 21 pioneers in service-oriented manufacturing like Power Diamond [2][3] - The event emphasized the importance of digital transformation and innovation in driving service upgrades, as demonstrated by companies like Henan Xiangyu Medical Equipment and Luohe Weilang Trading [3][4] Group 3 - The ongoing technological changes and innovative business models are leading to a new strategic development phase for the service industry, with a focus on key industries and areas needing improvement [4] - The provincial development and reform commission plans to leverage various policies and funds to cultivate high-quality, digitally empowered, and integrated service enterprises [4] - The goal is to establish a robust ecosystem for service industry innovation, enhancing the competitiveness of Henan's brands both domestically and internationally [4]