Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Affected by the China - India fertilizer agreement, the weekly urea price first strengthened and then weakened. With supply increasing, demand being weak, and inventories piling up, the spot price weakened significantly over the weekend. It is expected that the urea price will first weaken and then strengthen in the short term, with the 01 contract having support at 1680 - 1720 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Changes - **Price**: On August 22, the closing price of the urea 2509 contract was 1739 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.12%) from last week, with a maximum of 1825 yuan/ton. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1741 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (1.52%) from last week [2][4]. - **Basis**: The main urea basis first weakened and then strengthened. On August 22, the main basis in the Henan market was 2 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of -76 - 2 yuan/ton [2][8]. - **Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of urea fluctuated within a range. On August 22, the 9 - 1 spread was -24 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of -34 - -23 yuan/ton [2][8]. Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: China's urea operating load rate was 84.09%, down 0.36 percentage points from last week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 75.15%, down 0.32 percentage points from last week. The average daily urea output was 19.44 tons, and the daily output has recovered to around 200,000 tons [2][11]. - **Cost**: The anthracite market price remained stable. The anthracite mine operation was at a high level, and downstream coal - using enterprises' raw coal procurement was mainly for rigid demand, with general acceptance of high - priced coal. The overall market trading cooled down, and there was insufficient upward momentum for coal prices [2][14]. - **Demand**: National agricultural demand was scattered at this stage. The capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 40.84%, down 2.64 percentage points from last week, at a medium - high level. The compound fertilizer inventory was 889,500 tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from last week. Other industrial demands such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin remained stable [2][21]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory was 933,000 tons, an increase of 73,000 tons from last week, showing continuous inventory accumulation. Urea port inventory was 795,000 tons, an increase of 53,000 tons from last week, with an accelerating inventory accumulation rate. There were 4073 registered urea warrants, totaling 81,460 tons [2][27]. Key Points to Watch - Pay attention to the compound fertilizer start - up situation, urea plant production cuts and overhauls, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2].