1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The global urea market will face more intense competition and changes due to the increase in global urea production capacity [11] - The price range of UR2605 is expected to be between 1950 - 2000 yuan/ton, and the price range for another situation is 1700 - 2000 yuan/ton [26] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Urea Q1 2026 Market Review - On March 18, 2026, the price was 1887 yuan/ton, a 9.19% change, with a 2.29% change in another aspect. There were different price levels such as 1760 yuan/ton, 1810 yuan/ton, and 1840 yuan/ton, with proportion changes of 50% and 43%. The FOB price was 600 yuan/ton, and the range was 21 - 22.5 [6] - There were price differences in the 5 - 9 months, with values like -41, -47, +29, 23, etc [8] 3.2 2026 Urea Supply - Demand Pattern Outlook 3.2.1 Supply - In 2024, the domestic urea production capacity was 314 (unit not clear), and there were different production - related data throughout the year. In 2025, the global total production capacity was close to 2.3 billion tons, with 560 million tons of overseas production. In 2026, the domestic production capacity was 6.27 million tons [11] - In 2026, new overseas production capacity is expected in Russia (73 million tons), Mexico (50 million tons), Bangladesh (100 million tons), and India (127 million tons), with a total of 350 million tons [14] 3.2.2 Demand - The agricultural demand for urea has seasonal patterns from March - May, June - July, August, and September - October, with a 12.6% change (not clear what it represents) [16] - There were data on compound fertilizer prices, Shandong melamine prices, compound fertilizer operating rates, compound fertilizer inventories, urea export quantities, and urea Middle - East prices [24][25] 3.3 Views and Strategies - The price is expected to be 1840 yuan/ton with an upward trend, and the UR2605 price range is 1950 - 2000 yuan/ton. Another price range is 1700 - 2000 yuan/ton [26]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea production has slightly decreased recently, and there is a greater possibility of a slight increase in production considering short - term enterprise failures. Agricultural demand has weakened, but industrial demand is stable, supporting smooth urea shipments. The inventory of urea factories is at a low level, and the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to narrow. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1840 - 1880 [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1851 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is - 32 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 157,223 lots, down 16,685 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 22,940, up 11,689. The exchange warehouse receipts are 9,662, up 955 [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1880 yuan/ton and 191 yuan/ton respectively, while those in Henan, Shandong and Anhui remained unchanged at 1860 yuan/ton, 1900 yuan/ton and 1870 yuan/ton respectively. The main contract basis is 49 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan.FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remained unchanged at 622. and 752.5 dollars/ton respectively [2] Industry Situation - The port inventory is 169,000 tons, up 2,000 tons; the enterprise inventory is about about 700,5 tons, down 108, tons.The urea enterprise operating rate is 88.35%, down 3.84%; the daily output is about 210,80 tons, down 6,300 tons. The urea export volume is 110,000 tons, down 20%. The monthly output is 6, tons, down 2 tons [ ] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is %, up ; the melamine operating rate is 65.9%, up 6. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is yuan/ton, up 170 yuan.The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 444., tons, down 73, tons; the weekly output of melamine is 36, tons, up 3,700 tons [2] Industry News - As of April 1, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 536,000 tons, down 164,500 tons or 23.48% from the previous period. As of March 26, the port sample inventory was 169,000 tons, up 2,000 tons or 1.20%. The production of urea enterprises was 1,475,600 tons, down 43,800 tons or 2.88% [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from high oil prices, leading to a potential increase in both volume and price [6] - The company achieved a revenue of 30.969 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 9.52%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.315 billion yuan, down 15.04% year-on-year [6] - In Q4 2025, the company reported a net profit of 942 million yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 10.29% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.96%, exceeding expectations [6] - The company has initiated projects in the dual acid and BDO sectors, which began production in Q3 2025, and its subsidiary in Jingzhou was recognized as a high-tech enterprise, benefiting from a reduced corporate income tax rate of 15% [6] - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2026-2028, expecting net profits of 5.702 billion yuan (+72.0%), 6.792 billion yuan (+19.1%), and 7.705 billion yuan (+13.4%) respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.69 yuan, 3.20 yuan, and 3.63 yuan [6][9] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to increase to 35.704 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.3% [9] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 23.8% in 2026, with a net margin of 16.7% [9] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 19.7 in 2024 to 13.5 in 2026, indicating a more attractive valuation [9] - The company plans to invest in a gasification platform upgrade and a dual acid project, with a total investment of 5.488 billion yuan for a new TDI project expected to be completed by the end of 2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from high oil prices, leading to a potential increase in both volume and price [6] - The company achieved a revenue of 30.969 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 9.52%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.315 billion yuan, down 15.04% year-on-year [6] - In Q4 2025, the company reported a net profit of 942 million yuan, which is an increase of 10.29% year-on-year and 16.96% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding expectations [6] - The company has initiated projects in dual acid and BDO, which began production in Q3, and its subsidiary in Jingzhou was recognized as a high-tech enterprise, benefiting from a reduced corporate income tax rate of 15% [6] - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2026-2028, expecting net profits of 5.702 billion yuan, 6.792 billion yuan, and 7.705 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.69 yuan, 3.20 yuan, and 3.63 yuan per share [6] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue and net profit projections for 2026 are 35.704 billion yuan and 5.702 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.3% and 72.0% [9] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 23.8% in 2026, with a net margin of 16.7% [9] - The company’s P/E ratios for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are projected to be 13.5, 11.3, and 10.0 respectively [9] - The company plans to invest in a gasification platform upgrade and a dual acid project, with a total investment of 5.488 billion yuan for a 300,000-ton TDI project expected to be completed by the end of 2027 [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Supply is tight in the short - term, but supply pressure will gradually appear. Demand has some support but the terminal demand lacks positive guidance. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 15,500 - 17,500, and the follow - up progress of the US - Iran conflict should be monitored [1]. Polyolefins - The supply pattern of domestic and foreign production cuts, declining import expectations, and increasing exports makes the inventory of the 05 contract of LLDPE and PP low. The core logic of "strong cost + reduced supply" dominates the pricing power. In April, the spot is expected to tighten and the basis to strengthen [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the cost support weakens, and the profit of the combined - alkali method is expected to decline. It is expected to fluctuate, and the SA605 contract is expected to be in the range of 1,150 - 1,250. For glass, the cost support weakens, and the inventory pressure exists. It is also expected to fluctuate, and the FG605 contract has limited downward space. Short positions can be held [3]. LPG - The LPG price has declined. The upstream and downstream operating rates have decreased to varying degrees. The overall LPG market is affected by factors such as geopolitical risks and inventory changes, and the price is expected to fluctuate [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term due to factors such as increased supply, inventory accumulation, and weak demand. PVC has a certain cost support, but the price may be adjusted weakly in the short - term due to factors such as weak export demand and fading chemical sentiment [5]. Urea - The urea supply has decreased slightly, and the inventory is at a relatively low level, providing bottom support for the price. However, the supply is still abundant, and the demand is in a slack period. The market lacks clear driving factors, and it is expected to continue to operate in a narrow range. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 1,830 - 1,900 [6]. Crude Oil - The main trading logic is "geopolitical support + policy suppression". In the short - term, the geopolitical risk premium has declined, and the oil price may turn to a weak - oscillation pattern. However, the supply shortage still exists, and the oil price will fluctuate between geopolitical support and policy suppression. The negotiation progress and the navigation situation in the Mandeb Strait need to be tracked [7]. Methanol - The methanol market has a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The supply is expected to increase in the long - term, while the demand is improving. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the risks of geopolitical situation changes and weakening MTO profits [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - For pure benzene, the supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to improve. It may follow the oil price fluctuations, and the EB05 - BZ05 spread can be shorted at high levels. For styrene, the supply is stable, the demand is weakening, and the profit is being compressed. It also follows the oil price fluctuations [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX has a tight supply - demand expectation in April and still has price support. PTA has limited self - driving force and follows the cost fluctuations. Ethylene glycol has cost support and is expected to go up, but there is a risk of a pull - back. Short - fiber has weak self - driving force and follows the raw material fluctuations. Bottle - chip is expected to have a tight supply - demand situation and strong processing fees in April [11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of various rubber varieties have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling. The basis of full - latex has increased [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread has decreased, the 1 - 5 spread has increased, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased significantly [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Thailand in January has increased, while that of Indonesia and India has decreased. The operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires are relatively stable. The export volume of tires in February has decreased, and the import volume of natural rubber has also decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory has increased slightly, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE has decreased [1]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 have all declined. The spreads between different contracts have also changed [2]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of PE plants has decreased, while the weighted operating rate of PE downstream has increased. The operating rate of PP plants has decreased slightly, and the operating rate of PP powder has decreased significantly [2]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of PE has increased, while the social inventory has decreased. The enterprise inventory and trader inventory of PP have both decreased [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of glass in different regions are stable, and the futures prices of glass 2605 and 2609 have declined. The basis of 05 has increased [3]. - **Soda - Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of soda ash in different regions are stable, and the futures prices of soda ash 2605 and 2609 have declined. The basis of 05 has increased [3]. - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate and weekly output of soda ash have decreased, and the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass has also decreased [3]. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of glass has decreased slightly, and the factory - warehouse inventory of soda ash has decreased slightly [3]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The new - construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate have changed to different degrees, with some improving and some still in a negative growth state [3]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG futures contracts have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have also changed. The spot price in South China has decreased slightly [4]. - **External - Market Prices**: The prices of FEI and CP contracts have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling [4]. - **Inventory**: The refinery storage - capacity ratio of LPG has decreased, while the port inventory and port storage - capacity ratio have increased slightly [4]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream main - refineries has decreased, and the operating rate of downstream PDH has decreased [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling [5]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of caustic soda and PVC have changed [5]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of the caustic - soda and PVC industries have increased slightly, and the profits of some PVC production methods have decreased [5]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of the downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed to different degrees [5]. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of caustic soda has increased, and the upstream factory - warehouse inventory and total social inventory of PVC have decreased [5]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: The futures price of urea has oscillated weakly, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [6]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite and steam - coal are stable [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizers are stable [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea has decreased slightly, the operating rate of urea production plants has decreased, and the inventory has decreased [6]. Crude Oil - **Crude - Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [7]. - **Refined - Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined - oil products such as NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have also changed [7]. - **Refined - Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined - oil products in different regions have decreased [7]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory of methanol have all decreased [9]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream domestic enterprises has increased, and the operating rate of downstream MTO devices has increased [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha have changed to different degrees [10]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene spot and futures have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports have decreased [10]. - **Industrial - Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the pure - benzene and styrene industrial chains have changed to different degrees [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices and cash flows of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY have changed [11]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - **Industrial - Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the polyester industrial chain, including PX, PTA, MEG, and downstream products, have changed [11].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2025, with total revenue of 148.06 billion yuan, down 21.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 17.88 billion yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue for Q4 2025 was 37.47 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.5% year-on-year, while net profit for the same period was 5.40 billion yuan, an increase of 14.7% year-on-year [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.83 yuan per 10 shares, which accounts for 28.37% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1] Group 2: Coal Business Performance - The company's coal production in 2025 was 135.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year, with total coal sales of 255.86 million tons, down 10.2% year-on-year [2] - The total revenue from the coal business was 120.4 billion yuan, down 25.1% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 32.57 billion yuan, a decline of 17.8% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit margin for the coal business was 27.1%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 3: Self-produced Coal Performance - The revenue from self-produced coal in 2025 was 66.082 billion yuan, down 14.5% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 31.785 billion yuan, down 17.5% year-on-year [3] - The average selling price of self-produced coal was 485 yuan per ton, a decrease of 77 yuan per ton year-on-year [3] - The unit sales cost for self-produced coal was 251.51 yuan per ton, a decrease of 30.22 yuan per ton year-on-year [3] Group 4: Trade Coal Performance - The revenue from trade coal in 2025 was 53.71 billion yuan, down 35.1% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 0.566 billion yuan, down 28.6% year-on-year [4] - The sales volume of trade coal was 10.914 million tons, a decrease of 23.0% year-on-year, with a unit selling price of 492 yuan per ton, down 15.6% year-on-year [4] Group 5: Coal Chemical Business Performance - The coal chemical business generated revenue of 18.658 billion yuan in 2025, down 9.1% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 2.69 billion yuan, down 13.6% year-on-year [5] - The sales volume of methanol and urea saw significant year-on-year increases of 1015.8% and 18.9%, respectively [5] - The company is constructing a coal deep processing project with a capacity of 900,000 tons/year, expected to be operational by December 2026 [5] Group 6: Industry Outlook - The coal industry has implemented production control measures, leading to a significant reduction in coal production in the second half of 2025, with market coal prices showing signs of recovery [6] - The average price of Qinhuangdao port Q5500 thermal coal is expected to remain above 700 yuan per ton in early 2026, supported by improved demand from thermal power generation [6] - The company is positioned as a leading thermal coal producer in China, with ongoing projects expected to enhance its production capacity and cost advantages [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Urea**: The urea futures price showed a weak oscillation on Tuesday, with the main 05 contract closing at 1,874 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.9%. The supply level of urea continued to rise, with the daily output reaching 221,900 tons, a daily increase of 2,800 tons. The demand follow - up sentiment varied greatly. The short - term urea spot market will have little change, and the pattern of strong supply and demand will continue. It is expected that the short - term urea futures price will continue the high - level oscillation trend, and may still fluctuate with international situations and energy prices. [1] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures price declined weakly on Tuesday, with the main 05 contract closing at 1,177 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.13%. The supply is expected to rise as maintenance enterprises resume production. The demand sentiment has declined, and the overall demand support is weak. The soda ash futures market's trading of external factors has gradually subsided, and the market trend has weakened. [1] - **Glass**: The glass futures price showed a weak trend on Tuesday, with the main 05 contract closing at 1,019 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.21%. The supply level of glass continued to decline, and the demand was still weak. Most glass enterprises still face inventory pressure, and the glass futures market sentiment is weak due to insufficient demand. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information Urea - On March 31, the urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 8,707, with no change from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 300. - On March 31, the daily output of the urea industry was 221,900 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons from the previous working day and 30,700 tons from the same period last year. The industry's operating rate was 94.23%, a rise of 9.25 percentage points compared with 84.98% in the same period last year. - On March 31, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various regions in China were as follows: Shandong 1,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), Henan 1,860 yuan/ton (unchanged), Hebei 1,880 yuan/ton (+10), Anhui 1,870 yuan/ton (unchanged), Jiangsu 1,910 yuan/ton (+10), and Shanxi 1,770 yuan/ton (unchanged). [4] Soda Ash & Glass - On March 31, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 1,363, with no change from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 1,454; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 100, with no change from the previous trading day. - On March 31, the spot prices of soda ash in different regions were provided. - On March 31, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 82.52%, compared with 82.8% on the previous working day. - On March 31, the average price of the float glass market was 1,169 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the daily output was 143,600 tons/day, a daily decrease of 700 tons/day. - As of March 31, 2026, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 6.86 days, a month - on - month increase of 12.30% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.30%; the inventory of the industry's original glass was 7.9 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.96% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.41%. [6][7] Chart Analysis - The report provides various charts including the closing prices, basis, trading volume and open interest, price spreads, and spot price trends of urea, soda ash, and glass, as well as the price spreads between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute. [9][11][13][17][18][20][21] Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of the resource product research at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys. [24]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating" [1] Core View of the Report - The urea price is expected to oscillate within the range of 1830 - 1930 yuan/ton due to complex geopolitical situation in the Middle East, high - volatility of international crude oil, temporary shutdown of some urea production facilities in the Middle East, cautious mid - downstream purchasing at high prices, suspension of exports and release of reserve supplies [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Tuesday, the price of the main urea contract 2605 dropped 17 yuan to 1874 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China mainstream area was 1860 yuan/ton. The long - position decreased by 12709 lots to 262,000 lots, and the short - position decreased by 12692 lots to 297,000 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 209,000 tons, 1000 tons less than the previous working day and 12,000 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate is 88.9%, 1.2% higher than 87.7% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 700,500 tons, 108,400 tons less than the previous period, a 13.40% month - on - month decrease. The sample inventory at urea ports is 169,000 tons, a 2000 - ton month - on - month increase [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 51.2%, a 1.2% month - on - month increase, and the operating rate of melamine is 59.3%, a 5.9% month - on - month increase [1] - India's RCF urea import tender: The latest shipping date is March 31. It received 20 suppliers with a total bid volume of over 3.07 million tons. The lowest offer on the east coast is CFR512 dollars/ton, and on the west coast is CFR508 dollars/ton. India intends to purchase 1.5 million tons [1] - Urea exports: In January 2026, urea exports were 307,900 tons, a 10.61% month - on - month increase; the average export price was 397.50 dollars/ton, a 0.19% month - on - month decrease. In February 2026, exports were 111,500 tons, a 63.78% month - on - month decrease; the average export price was 398.52 dollars/ton, a 0.26% month - on - month increase [1] - International oil prices: NYMEX crude oil futures contract 05 dropped 1.50 dollars/barrel to 101.38 dollars/barrel, a 1.46% month - on - month decrease; ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 05 rose 5.57 dollars/barrel to 118.35 dollars/barrel, a 4.94% month - on - month increase. China's INE crude oil futures contract 2605 dropped 13.7 to 749.3 yuan/barrel, and dropped 55.4 to 693.9 yuan/barrel at night [1] Market Logic - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is complex and changeable, leading to high - volatility of international crude oil. Some urea production facilities in the Middle East have shut down temporarily, causing overseas urea prices to rise sharply. Mid - downstream buyers are cautious about purchasing at high prices, while upstream factories currently face little pressure. Exports have been urgently suspended, and reserve supplies have been released into the market [1] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Coal Energy (601898.SH) is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The report indicates that coal prices are recovering while costs continue to decline, leading to gradual improvement in profitability [1][7] - The company reported a revenue of 148.06 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 21.8%, with a gross profit margin of 27.49%, an increase of 2.61 percentage points year-on-year [4][7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 17.88 billion yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 17.72 billion yuan, also down 7.3% year-on-year [4][7] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, revenue was 37.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.5%, but net profit increased by 14.7% to 5.40 billion yuan [4][7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.83 yuan per 10 shares, which accounts for 28.37% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [4] Production and Sales - The total coal production for 2025 was 135.10 million tons, a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year, with total sales of 255.86 million tons, down 10.2% year-on-year [7] - The coal business generated total revenue of 120.40 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.1%, with a gross profit of 32.57 billion yuan, down 17.8% year-on-year [7] Cost and Pricing - The average selling price of self-produced coal was 485 yuan per ton, down 77 yuan year-on-year, while the unit sales cost decreased to 251.51 yuan per ton, down 30.22 yuan year-on-year [7] - The company significantly reduced low-margin trade coal sales, with revenue from trade coal down 35.1% to 53.71 billion yuan [7] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that coal prices will continue to rise due to supply constraints and increasing demand from power generation, with expected net profits of 19.03 billion yuan and 19.86 billion yuan for 2026 and 2027, respectively [8] - The company is advancing projects that will enhance its coal and coal chemical integration, with a new processing facility expected to start production by the end of 2026 [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, has a significant impact on the prices of various commodities. The market is highly sensitive to the progress of the cease - fire negotiations and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea [3][4]. - Different sectors have different market trends. For example, in the oil product sector, the prices are affected by supply - demand relations and geopolitical factors; in the chemical industry, the prices are influenced by policies, supply - demand, and cost factors; in the non - ferrous metal sector, the prices are supported by cost and demand factors [3][5][16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Products 3.1.1 Crude Oil - Logic: The intention of the US and Iran to cease the war has led to a decline in rising oil prices. - Fundamental: The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and the global crude oil supply is generally tight. Incidents in Ukraine and the Red Sea have further aggravated supply concerns. - Macro: Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut have risen, and market sentiment has improved with the easing of the geopolitical situation [3]. 3.1.2 Fuel Oil - Logic: The fundamentals provide support, and the downward space for cracking is limited. - Fundamental: High - sulfur fuel oil has strong fundamental support, and the supply is still tight in April. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a tight supply - demand balance, and the supply - side tightening support is strong [5][6]. 3.1.3 LPG - Logic: Geopolitical factors cause repeated disturbances, and there is still support in the short term. - Fundamental: Although the price has decreased due to the US's cease - fire intention, the supply is expected to be tight in the medium term, and the price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [7]. 3.2 Aromatics - Polyester 3.2.1 PTA - Logic: Pay attention to geopolitical progress and downstream negative feedback. - Fundamental: The futures price has risen, the spot market has a general trading atmosphere, the supply load has increased, and the demand load has decreased. The mainstream polyester filament manufacturers have increased production cuts [8][9]. 3.3 Coal Chemical Industry 3.3.1 Urea - Logic: Policy and supply - demand are in a stalemate, and the price is in a high - level consolidation. - Fundamental: The market price is relatively stable, the supply is at a high level, the demand is stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [10]. 3.3.2 Methanol - Logic: The tense geopolitical relationship between the US and Iran makes the short - term import shortage difficult to solve, supporting high - level operation, but the risk of chasing high prices is increasing. - Fundamental: The price is in a high - level shock, the port price has declined, and the basis is still strong. The short - term import shortage will support the high - level operation of the price, but attention should be paid to the risk of the reversal of the bullish logic [11]. 3.4 Salt Chemical Industry 3.4.1 Soda Ash - Logic: The rigid demand is weakening, and the supply - demand pressure is large. - Fundamental: The price is weakly stable, the inventory has changed from destocking to stockpiling, and the supply - demand contradiction will continue to increase. The rebound needs supply - side production cuts, but the production - cut drive is not clear [12]. 3.4.2 Glass - Logic: Both supply and demand are weak, and production cuts continue. - Fundamental: The short - term market sentiment is weak, the supply is decreasing, and the market is in a game between low supply and weak demand. In the medium term, the cost pressure has increased, and the support of low supply for the spot price will increase after the demand out of the off - season [13][14]. 3.4.3 Caustic Soda - Logic: The spot price is loosening, and the export end shows signs of weakening. - Fundamental: The short - term spot price shows a marginal weakening trend, the export demand still has support, but attention should be paid to the price decline risk if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened [15]. 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - Logic: The price is oscillating strongly. - Fundamental: The upstream mine has disturbances, the processing fee is at a low level, the demand is growing structurally, the inventory is in a state of destocking in some places, and the long - term demand for new energy transformation is beneficial [16]. 3.5.2 Gold - Logic: The price is oscillating strongly. - Fundamental: The monetary policy outlook is uncertain, the Middle East conflict has an impact on inflation and the US dollar index, and the weakening of the US dollar index may drive the rise of the gold price [18]. 3.5.3 Silver - Logic: The price is oscillating strongly. - Fundamental: The market focus is on the Middle East situation and the Fed's interpretation of inflation expectations, and the price trend is full of uncertainties [19].