中国与世界关系变化
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兴证王涵 | 2026年展望:叙事映射!
王涵论宏观· 2025-12-18 06:39
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that grand narratives are no longer distant political topics but are directly driving structural changes in asset prices, highlighting the importance of understanding these narratives for investment strategies [1][5]. Group 1: Structural Changes in Global Financial Markets - The global financial market is experiencing five significant structural changes: 1. The US dollar has depreciated significantly against physical assets, with a more than 200% decline against gold and over 60% against copper since 2018 [7]. 2. Traditional safe-haven assets like the yen and dollar are losing their risk-hedging properties [13]. 3. Despite no significant acceleration in China's economic growth, A-shares have performed remarkably well [17]. 4. Global stock trading is showing a "bipolar" pattern, with a focus on the US and China [20]. 5. The risk premium for emerging market sovereign debt is decreasing, exemplified by China's successful issuance of a dollar sovereign bond with a 30-fold subscription rate and no premium over US Treasuries [23]. Group 2: Macro Narratives Driving Changes - Three macro narratives are reshaping market logic: 1. Emerging economies are surpassing developed economies, particularly in manufacturing, which has become a new growth engine for global trade [11][28]. 2. The internal "shrinking" of developed economies is obscuring the decline of the US, with significant disparities in growth rates among developed nations [32][36]. 3. The relationship between China and the world is changing, with US strategies failing to contain China's growth, leading to a potential new phase in US-China relations [40][42]. Group 3: Unpriced Macro Narratives - Four key macro narratives have not been fully priced into the market: 1. The narrative of emerging markets surpassing developed ones is not yet reflected in corporate profits and stock valuations, indicating potential for future growth [49]. 2. The systemic undervaluation of the renminbi is expected to be corrected as global economic dynamics shift towards a multipolar order [54]. 3. The US stock market faces risks that may not materialize until late 2026, as the Federal Reserve grapples with inflation and policy credibility [56]. 4. The status of gold is likely to increase as the world transitions to a multipolar order, enhancing its role as a non-sovereign store of value [56].