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解读中国统计指标:概念、方法和含义-中金公司
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-19 14:34
Core Viewpoint - The report "Interpretation of China's Statistical Indicators: Concepts, Methods, and Implications" by CICC systematically organizes key macroeconomic statistical indicators in China, covering six major areas: economic activities, income, foreign economy, monetary finance, prices, and population and employment [1][10]. Economic Activities - Key indicators include GDP calculated by production, income, and expenditure methods, with the income method being predominant annually. There is a noted underestimation of self-owned housing value [1][11]. - The industrial added value above designated size includes enterprises with annual main business income exceeding 20 million yuan, calculated monthly using PPI [1][11]. - PMI is divided into official and Caixin PMI, with the former being more representative due to a larger sample size [1][11]. - Fixed asset investment is subject to overestimation, as seen in 2016 when some provinces reported investments exceeding GDP [1][11]. - Retail sales of consumer goods include online retail and differentiate between surveyed units above and below a certain threshold [1][11]. Income - Income indicators encompass corporate profits (operating surplus, industrial enterprise profits) and resident income (average wages in urban units, average monthly income of migrant workers, per capita disposable income), with the latter facing issues of underreporting high-income groups [1][11]. - Fiscal revenue and expenditure are categorized into narrow (general public budget) and broad (including four types of revenue and expenditure) [1][11]. Foreign Economy - Foreign economic indicators include customs trade in goods (exports calculated on FOB, imports on CIF), FDI and ODI, balance of payments, and foreign exchange reserves controlled by the central bank [1][11]. Monetary Finance - Monetary indicators consist of money supply (M0, M1, M2), new loans, total social financing, and various monetary policy tools such as benchmark interest rates and reserve requirements [1][11]. - Interest rate indicators include repo rates, Shibor, and government bond yields, along with onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates [1][11]. Prices - Price indicators include CPI (covering 262 basic categories with a high weight on food), PPI (covering over 50,000 industrial enterprises), GDP deflator, and housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities [1][11]. Population and Employment - Population indicators include total population, age structure (reflected by dependency ratios), employment numbers, urban new employment, and survey unemployment rates, which have been published monthly since 2013 for more accuracy [1][11].