高盛经济学家：预计美国基准"对等"关税税率将从10%上升至15%，其中铜和关键矿产的关税将高达 50%，此举可能引发通胀并拖累经济增长。 ...

如果你正在从事的副业似乎越来越有起色，你自己可能也在纠结这个问题：有没有办法算出辞去日常工作的最佳时机呢？虽然没有一个放之四海而皆准的 答案，但本文作者基于与那些成功实现转型的高管和领导者合作的经验，总结出了五个问题，帮助你判断自己是否准备好迈出这一步。 根据国际咨询机构MBO Partners的研究，美国全职独立工作者的数量从2020年的1360万增长到了2024年的2770万。其中84% 的人表示，独立工作让他们更 快乐，健康状况更好，也更有安全感。曾经被视为一条充满风险的职业道路，如今就连资深企业领导者也在追寻，以便掌控自己的时间、收入以及共事的 对象。 那么，为什么没有更多人选择辞职呢？弄清楚何时迈出这一步，可能是做出这个选择时最复杂的因素之一，而且很多人都把握不好时机。 我们中的一位（卡特里娜）在23岁时辞去了工作，放弃了在一家科技巨头获得六位数收入的机会，成为一名独立作家并周游世界。至少原本是这样计划 的；然而，三个月后她却在星巴克打工。从那时起，她通过建立新的人脉关系和机会来拓展自己的人际网络，最终与HubSpot等公司签订了合同，之后在 Digital Press与创业者们共事，接着又进入了M ...

隔夜，现货黄金飙升逾1%，盘中创下五周新高3401.41美元，收盘报3396.91美元。今日亚市盘中，黄金小幅下跌，目前在3386美元附近徘徊。 关税又生变！ 隔夜，美股三大指数冲高回落，纳指、标普500指数均创历史新高，纳指盘中一度站上21000点。截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数下跌0.04%，纳斯达克指数上 涨0.38%，标普500指数上涨0.14%。 当下，贸易问题再次成为焦点，白宫重申其对关税的立场。 随着8月1日最后期限临近，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的贸易谈判立场变得强硬。 美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克在周日表示，8月1日是各国开始缴纳关税的"硬性截止日"，但他也补充说，"这之后各国仍可与我们进行对话"。 对此，欧盟考虑酝酿"核选项"反制美国，此时距离特朗普所设的"关税开火日"仅剩不到10天。 所谓的"核选项"，指的是"反胁迫工具"，即若第三国试图用经济手段迫使欧盟成员国改变政策，欧盟可以进行反制裁。比如禁美企参与欧盟2万亿欧元的 公共采购；限制美资金融机构在欧活动；取消知识产权保护；封禁美国化工品、农产品、投资渠道等等。 欧盟若要启动该工具，需获得至少15个成员国支持。法国一直主张使用ACI，德国也加入支 ...

时间： 14：30 - 17：30 尽管挑战重重，机遇仍在。具备产业协同、技术互补及市场拓展潜力的跨境并购项目，依然受到广泛 关注与青睐。伦敦证券交易所集团在今年开始举办了一系列的线下研讨会与来自不同领域的专家共同 探讨，交流看法。 我们北京场的研讨会完美闭幕后，上海场即将开始，届时，与会者将共同探讨中国企业在2025年并购 过程中所面临的挑战与潜在机遇，并深入交流科技在投行业务中的应用经验与独特优势。 活动信息 日期： 2025年8月5日（周二） 活动议程 14:30 - 15:00 签到 15:00 - 15:10 开场介绍 15:10 - 15:30 主题分享：中国并购市场上半年回顾 15:30 - 15:50 主题分享：关于中国企业出海并购的一些思考 15:50 - 16:10 茶歇 16:10 - 16:30 主题分享：出海印尼市场的风险和挑战 16:30 - 16:50 主题分享：关税战中的资本嗅觉 16:50 - 17:10 活动背景 自2025年以来，全球贸易格局发生深刻变革，关税战与地缘政治因素正深刻影响中国企业的"走出 去"战略。尤其在海外优质资产的并购过程中，政策合规、融资成本及交易结构 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Title] 当前时点看好券商的三个理由 吴一凡 盛晓双 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 站在当前时点我们重申券商配置价值，主要基于三个原因：1）大金融板块内滞涨且估值安全边 际仍较高；2）中报披露在即，预计业绩仍延续高增；3）AH 溢价绝对值仍较高，H 股估值修 复进行中。建议把握券商板块配置机会，重点关注业绩改善幅度大且估值相对偏低的优质头部 券商国泰海通、中金公司和中国银河。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490519080007 SFC：BUV596 1 投资银行业与经纪业 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 当前时点看好券商的三个理由 [Table_Summary2] 站在当前时点我们重申券商配置价值，主要基于三个原因：1）大金融板块内滞涨且估值安全 边际仍较高；2）中报披露在即，预计业绩仍延续高增；3）AH 溢价绝对值仍较高，H 股估值 修复进行中。建议把握券商板块配置机会，重点关 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Group is launching its 2025-2026 campus recruitment and internship programs, offering diverse positions across various departments to meet students' career development needs [2] Group 1: Recruitment Activities - Nomura will conduct both online and offline recruitment activities in the coming months, including events like "Nomura Carnival" and "Meet Nomura" to engage with potential candidates [2][3] - The "Nomura Carnival" will take place in Hong Kong and Singapore, allowing current interns and employees to share their experiences with students [2] - An Open Day event will also be held in Hong Kong and Singapore to provide insights into different career paths within the company [3] Group 2: Internship and Graduate Programs - Nomura offers three main programs for undergraduate and master's students: Summer Internship Program, Graduate Internship Program, and Graduate Program, with durations ranging from 9 weeks to 2 years [4][5] - The Summer Internship Program lasts 9-10 weeks, starting with training and business awareness courses, providing practical experience in departments like Global Markets, Investment Banking, and International Wealth Management [5][6] - The Graduate Internship Program is a 9-week opportunity for recent graduates to gain experience in sales, trading, product structuring, or research, with support from peers and mentors [7][8] - The Graduate Program spans 1-2 years, offering basic training and potential cross-functional rotations, with ongoing support and feedback from the team [9][10] Group 3: Recruitment Process - The recruitment process at Nomura includes steps from online application to formal onboarding, emphasizing the importance of thorough preparation for interviews [11][12] - Candidates are advised to research the company and departments of interest, articulating their motivations for joining Nomura during interviews [12] - Resources for interview preparation include the company website, press releases, annual reports, social media, and networking with faculty, alumni, and friends [13]

稳定币这玩意儿最近火得一塌糊涂，从50亿飙到2500亿，五年翻了50倍，渣打银行还说2028年能到2万亿，听着是不是跟发现 新大陆似的？但你可别被"稳定"俩字忽悠了！清华大学李稻葵教授一句话戳穿：这玩意儿本质就是个货币基金，跟你支付宝里 的余额宝没本质区别，只不过穿了件区块链的马甲。更有意思的是，美元稳定币爆火背后，是华尔街那帮开赌场的想多摆几张 赌桌，和美国政府想趁机把美元霸权焊死在全世界——这俩货利益一致，联手给全世界下套呢！这事儿没那么简单，风险大得 能让你裤衩都赔光，咱得好好唠唠。 一、稳定币是个啥？别幻想它能取代人民币，就是法币的"影子"罢了 先问个扎心的问题：你觉得稳定币是啥？是未来的新货币？能取代人民币美元？要真这么想，你可就中了华尔街的圈套了。李 稻葵教授说得明明白白："稳定币本质上是一种以法定货币为锚、可以随时交换的货币基金，可以替代银行转账功能。" 说白 了，这玩意儿就是法币的"影子"——法币是本体，稳定币是跟着本体晃悠的影子，本体不动，影子咋晃都没用。 举个例子：你手里有100美元，把它换成美元稳定币，本质上就是把现金存进了一个"特殊货币基金"，这个基金承诺你随时能 换回100美元，跟你 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Title] 中报预计延续高增，配置价值持续提升 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 券商方面，本周多家券商披露业绩预增，中报业绩预计延续高增，配置价值持续提升；保险方面，预期价 值率提升继续驱动新业务价值高增；资产端权益市场延续上涨，预期投资收益及利润增长表现较好。当前 估值隐含市场对长期投资的悲观假设，考虑中远期利差水平，当前估值仍然安全。从盈利和分红的稳定性 维度出发，推荐江苏金租、中国平安及中国财险。综合业绩弹性及估值分位，推荐新华保险、中国人寿、 香港交易所、中信证券、东方财富、同花顺、九方智投控股。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490521020001 SFC：BUV596 吴一凡 谢宇尘 盛晓双 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 投资银行业与经纪业 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 中报预计延续高增，配置价值持续提升 [Table_Summary2] 核心观点： 1）券商 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Macro Economy and Real Estate Market - **Company**: Goldman Sachs (GS) Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Mixed Economic Data for May**: - Fixed asset investment growth was only 3.7%, below the expected 4.0% - Industrial value-added growth was 5.8%, slightly below the expected 6.0% - Retail sales of consumer goods grew strongly by 6.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9% [2][3] 2. **Decline in Urban Housing Demand**: - GS revised the forecast for urban housing demand, estimating it will remain below 5 million units annually, a 75% decrease from the peak of 20 million units in 2017 - Current housing prices are still declining, indicating the real estate market has not yet bottomed out [3][4] 3. **Limited Impact of Export Front-Loading**: - Anticipated "reciprocal" tariffs led to front-loading of exports, with an estimated 5% increase in overall exports in March - The impact on exports for the second half of the year is expected to be limited to 1 percentage point, suggesting that trade surpluses will remain strong [5][4] 4. **Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth**: - May saw a slowdown in fiscal operations, with budgetary income growth at only 0.1%, significantly lower than April's 1.9% - Fiscal expenditure growth decreased from 5.8% in April to 2.6%, indicating that fiscal stimulus has not significantly strengthened [11][12] 5. **Real Estate Revenue Weakness**: - Land transfer revenue fell by 14.2% year-on-year, a stark contrast to April's growth of 3.9% - Budgetary real estate-related tax revenue decreased by 8.6%, reflecting ongoing weakness in the real estate market [11][12] 6. **Geopolitical Tensions and Energy Prices**: - Brent crude oil prices rose to nearly $80 per barrel due to escalating tensions in Iran, with a geopolitical risk premium of about $12 - Two scenarios for oil price increases were outlined, with potential peaks of $90 and $110 per barrel under different supply disruption scenarios [26][28] 7. **Copper Demand Driven by AI**: - AI-driven data center expansion is expected to become a new growth driver for copper demand, particularly in power distribution and cooling systems - Strong capital expenditure expectations for AI-related investments are anticipated to sustain demand for copper-intensive components [32][34] 8. **Modern Dairy Industry Forecast**: - Modern Dairy, a joint venture of Mengniu, expects a net loss of RMB 800-1,000 million in the first half of 2025, significantly higher than last year's loss of RMB 207 million - The core operations remain resilient, with EBITDA expected to remain stable due to lower raw milk sales costs [38][39] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Fiscal Space for Expansion**: Despite current economic growth exceeding expectations, GS anticipates further fiscal expansion in the second half of the year to counter deflationary pressures and boost confidence [16][18] - **Market Sentiment and Currency Dynamics**: The report highlights a divergence in safe-haven currencies, with the dollar and Swiss franc performing strongly while Asian low-yield currencies face pressure [16][18] - **Potential for Future Trade Weakness**: High-frequency transport data indicates a potential weakening of Chinese exports to the U.S., particularly in container traffic, which may reflect the impact of new tariffs [35][37]

摩根士丹利：美国人未来10年多交2.7万亿美元关税 智通财经7月19日电，据央视新闻，近日，多家美国媒体批评美国政府的关税政策其实就是对内加税。 美国《财富》杂志援引摩根士丹利的一份研究报告表示，未来10年，美国政府可能征收高达2.7万亿美 元的关税，这笔钱将由美国消费者支付。《华盛顿邮报》称，关税政策的影响正在显现，美企开始感到 痛苦。《纽约时报》报道，美就业市场正失去动力。 ...