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关税风暴下的人民币汇率走势前瞻 | 政策与监管
清华金融评论· 2025-05-22 10:56
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Trump's tariff policies on the RMB exchange rate, suggesting that despite the intensification of tariffs in the Trump 2.0 era, the RMB has not depreciated as expected, indicating a potential for two-way fluctuations in the exchange rate [1][2]. Tariff Impact on RMB Exchange Rate - During Trump's first term (Trump 1.0), tariffs imposed from 2018 to 2019 caused the RMB to depreciate from 6.28 to around 7.10 against the USD, with a decline of over 10% in both the onshore and offshore markets [2][4]. - In the Trump 2.0 era, tariffs have escalated to a maximum of 145%, leading to a near halt in US-China trade, yet the overall impact on the RMB has been limited [2][4]. Recent Developments - As of April 18, 2025, the onshore RMB midpoint and spot rates have only decreased by 0.07% and 0.26% respectively since the beginning of the year, while the offshore RMB (CNH) has actually increased by 0.46% [4]. - The RMB strengthened in the first quarter of 2025, with the onshore midpoint, spot rate, and CNH rising by 0.14%, 0.65%, and 0.99% respectively, attributed to several factors including lower-than-expected tariffs and positive market sentiment towards Chinese assets [5]. Market Reactions and Economic Outlook - Following the announcement of the third round of tariffs in April 2025, the RMB experienced a decline, with the onshore midpoint and spot rates dropping to new lows since September 2023 [7]. - The aggressive tariff policies have led to a significant depreciation of the USD, with the dollar index falling below 100, which has helped stabilize the RMB [8]. Economic and Policy Divergence - The article highlights that the divergence in economic cycles between China and the US has led to differing monetary policies, contributing to the pressure on the RMB [10]. - The US is facing economic challenges due to Trump's policies, which have increased market uncertainty and the risk of recession, impacting the overall economic outlook for 2025 [11].