尽管人民币表现亮眼，但多位专家提醒，人民币汇率走势受多重因素驱动，不要赌人民币汇率单边升值 或贬值。未来人民币走势仍需观察结汇需求变化、基本面预期及美元走向，市场参与者应保持理性，切 勿盲目押注单边行情。 2026年春节假期后的首个交易日（2月24日），人民币汇率延续强势表现：截至16时30分，在岸、离岸 人民币分别报6.8817和6.8776，2026年以来累计升值幅度分别达1.53%和1.41%。 此轮人民币持续走强，是多重因素共振的结果。业内人士分析认为：一方面，外部环境边际改善，为包 括人民币在内的非美货币提供了上行空间；另一方面，春节前后企业结汇需求集中释放，为汇率注入季 节性动能。 中信证券首席经济学家明明对上海证券报记者表示，春节前后美元指数整体震荡运行，叠加客盘结汇需 求释放与市场预期共同作用，推动人民币汇率持续偏强，顺利突破6.90关口。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对上海证券报记者表示，以离岸人民币领涨为标志，这段时间汇市情绪偏 高，进一步助推人民币涨势。 ◎记者 范子萌 从外部因素看，美联储新主席人选沃什主张的"降息+缩表"政策组合，给美元走势带来新的不确定性。 王青认为，2026年美元指 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global macro environment in 2026 is characterized by increased volatility and sector rotation in the commodity market, influenced by geopolitical conflicts and changes in monetary policy, particularly from the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Market Characteristics - The primary feature of the current market is the significant price increase in commodities driven by massive liquidity released by various countries from 2021 to 2025, with the U.S. playing a key role through interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar [3]. - Since the second half of 2025, geopolitical issues have dominated commodity market trends, leading to a persistent rise in prices for precious and base metals due to countries competing for strategic resources [3][5]. Price Dynamics and Trends - In 2026, the market is expected to exhibit characteristics of significant price volatility and a notable premium on safe assets, with a clear division in sector performance [4][5]. - The core drivers of the commodity market in 2026 include the weakening of the dollar's credit, the demand surge for strategic metals due to the AI revolution, and the geopolitical risks prompting countries to secure strategic resources [5]. Currency Outlook - The Chinese yuan is anticipated to appreciate moderately with two-way fluctuations, expected to trade between 6.8 and 7 against the dollar throughout 2026 [6]. - Key supporting factors for the yuan's appreciation include a structural trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in 2025 and a shift in global asset allocation favoring Chinese assets [6]. Asset Rotation Insights - The pricing mechanism for commodities is shifting from traditional supply-demand dynamics to macroeconomic narratives, emphasizing the importance of de-dollarization, the AI revolution, and supply chain dynamics [7]. - Both industry clients and individual traders are advised to enhance risk awareness and adapt to changes in market pricing mechanisms, focusing on investment opportunities in strategic resources [7].

Core Viewpoint - The overall trend for the RMB exchange rate in February 2026 is expected to be characterized by "two-way fluctuations with a slowing appreciation rate," maintaining a narrow range of volatility [2]. Group 1: Predicted Trends - The consensus among institutions is that the onshore RMB/USD exchange rate will fluctuate between 6.95 and 7.05, while the offshore rate will range from 6.93 to 7.08 [2]. - Factors such as seasonal dollar rebounds and reduced domestic settlement demand around the Spring Festival will limit the pace of RMB appreciation [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The dollar's performance and the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy are key external variables affecting the RMB exchange rate [3]. - Predictions regarding the Federal Reserve's rate cuts vary, with Goldman Sachs suggesting potential cuts in Q1 and a small cut in Q3, while Mysteel anticipates three cuts throughout the year [3]. - The internal economic fundamentals show a mix of support and drag, with a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in 2025 providing hard support for the RMB [4]. - The seasonal nature of the Spring Festival will reduce corporate settlement demand, impacting short-term support for the RMB [4]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Different institutions share a consensus on "two-way fluctuations," but there are slight differences in their predictions regarding the appreciation extent and volatility range [7]. - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) expects a slight appreciation, while Minsheng Bank predicts a significant slowdown in appreciation [7]. - Zhongyin Securities warns of the risks of unilateral bets, suggesting potential for slight corrections if the dollar rebounds unexpectedly [7]. Group 4: Practical Decision-Making Guidelines - Ordinary investors are advised to avoid unilateral bets and focus on risk hedging, prioritizing investments in core RMB assets such as new energy and biotechnology [9]. - Companies engaged in import and export should adopt a "risk-neutral" approach, utilizing multi-currency settlements to mitigate risks associated with exchange rate fluctuations [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is a misunderstanding in the market regarding the simultaneous rise and fall of the stock and foreign exchange markets, which should not be simply correlated [1][2] - The first misconception is that the stock and foreign exchange markets move together. The chief economist emphasizes that while both are asset prices, they are influenced by different factors [1] - The second misconception is that currency appreciation always leads to capital inflow, while depreciation leads to outflow. The decisive factor for capital flow is the structure of the balance of payments, not the exchange rate [1][2] Group 2 - The third misconception is that currency appreciation is always beneficial and depreciation is always detrimental. The actual situation can be more complex, as seen in Japan's stock market benefiting from a weaker yen [2] - The chief economist notes that the exchange rate often acts as a "shock absorber," allowing for timely responses to internal and external shocks, which helps to release pressures and expectations of appreciation or depreciation [2] - In the long term, the logic that "a strong economy leads to a strong currency" will support the future strength of the renminbi and the long-term positive outlook for China's capital market [2]

Group 1: Current Macro Financial Situation - The global financial market is reflecting a clear trend of geopolitical multipolarity, with traditional safe-haven currencies like the USD and JPY losing their attributes [1][4] - The correlation between the USD and the VIX has dropped from around 0.5-0.6 to approximately 0, indicating a shift in market dynamics [4] - Emerging market bonds have seen a significant reduction in credit spreads compared to US Treasuries, suggesting a growing confidence in emerging markets over developed ones [5] Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate Analysis - The RMB's exchange rate against the USD has decreased from 7.3 at the beginning of the year to below 7, while the RMB's index against a basket of currencies has also weakened, indicating a broader depreciation influenced by the USD [5][6] - A critical point for the RMB exchange rate is identified at 6.7, where a potential inflow of previously exited capital could create upward pressure on the RMB [8] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to manage market expectations to avoid rapid unilateral appreciation of the RMB, with a more likely scenario being a gradual rise to around 6.8 [1][9] Group 3: Future Projections for the USD and RMB - The USD is anticipated to weaken further due to increased fiscal pressures and potential monetary easing measures, which could lead to upward pressure on the RMB [6][7] - The RMB's future trajectory will depend significantly on the PBOC's management of the exchange rate and market sentiment, with a focus on balancing internationalization efforts and domestic economic stability [9][10] - Historical patterns suggest that the rise of a financial power typically follows the establishment of industrial and commercial strength, positioning China at a critical juncture for financial ascendance [2][10]

Core Viewpoint - The roundtable discussion at Fudan University highlighted a significant shift in market expectations regarding the RMB exchange rate, indicating a transition from a one-sided depreciation to a dual-directional fluctuation pattern supported by fundamentals and policy expectations [1][4]. External Environment Analysis - The expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit and the debt burden from the "Great Beautiful Act" will likely force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and halt balance sheet reduction, weakening the long-term credit support for the dollar [2]. - Global capital is flowing out of dollar assets due to differentiated monetary policies among developed economies and the high valuation of U.S. stocks facing risks of disillusionment [2]. - China's economic growth target remains stable, with exports showing unexpected resilience under tariff pressures, supported by a healthy current account surplus [2]. Internal Factors - The RMB's attractiveness is increasing, leading to a trend of capital inflow that will further strengthen the RMB's performance [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to exhibit "moderate appreciation, dual-directional fluctuation, and range-bound operation" in the future [2]. RMB Exchange Rate Characteristics - In 2025, the RMB is expected to show an overall appreciation against the dollar, driven by a fundamental reversal in market expectations [4]. - The RMB's volatility is characterized by a high-to-low pattern, with implied volatility decreasing significantly in the latter half of the year [6]. - The convergence of onshore and offshore RMB prices indicates a strengthened market expectation for a stable and slightly stronger RMB [8]. Future Outlook for RMB Exchange Rate - The dollar is expected to remain weak in 2026 due to ongoing fiscal pressures and the need for the Federal Reserve to align with fiscal policy through interest rate cuts [9][10]. - China's economic resilience is anticipated to support a stronger RMB, with a GDP growth target around 5% and continued positive export growth [10][11]. - The People's Bank of China aims to maintain the RMB at a reasonable and balanced level, using policy tools to prevent one-sided betting behavior in the market [11]. Strategies for Managing Exchange Rate Fluctuations - Companies are advised to adopt a risk-neutral approach, focusing on core business and managing exchange rate risks through professional financial tools [15]. - Innovative financing and hedging solutions should be developed to lower the cost of currency risk management for small and medium-sized enterprises [15]. - A proactive approach to asset-liability management and trading strategies is recommended, avoiding one-sided bets and focusing on range trading opportunities [15]. Long-term Considerations - The sustainable appreciation of the RMB is contingent upon the stability and resilience of the real economy, emphasizing the need for a strong macroeconomic foundation [16][18].

Group 1 - The recent increase of 54 points in the market, accumulating to approximately 340 points over the week, indicates a potential trend rather than a mere fluctuation, suggesting a gradual expansion of previously suppressed market dynamics [1] - Historical context shows that the Renminbi has demonstrated resilience during global liquidity adjustments, particularly in times of external uncertainty, highlighting the importance of economic fundamentals and policy frameworks in sustaining long-term trends [1][3] - Market confidence and policy effectiveness cannot be solely determined by short-term numerical changes; a deeper understanding of the underlying factors is necessary to avoid oversimplification [3] Group 2 - External concerns often reflect the projection of domestic policy choices, and focusing too much on external sentiments may lead to missed opportunities for self-adjustment [5] - For domestic policy, it is crucial to maintain continuity and stability while being flexible in response to capital flow volatility, balancing between macro-prudential measures and short-term fluctuations [5] - Strategies should differentiate between short-term and medium-term goals, utilizing tools like foreign exchange reserves and macro-prudential measures for short-term stability, while relying on reforms and market deepening for long-term resilience [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of exchange rate trends in global investment decisions, suggesting that a favorable exchange rate can lead to multiple benefits for investors, including rising asset prices and increased returns on investments [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - The current phase of the RMB exchange rate is in the early stage of an appreciation cycle, which is expected to last for 3-4 years [2] - Historical data shows that the RMB exchange rate has strong cyclical characteristics, with significant fluctuations observed since the 2015 "811 exchange rate reform" [2] - The RMB has been consolidating at the bottom of its cycle for approximately 2.5 years, with a likely upward trend starting from May 2025 [2] Group 2: Economic Conditions - In 2026, the macroeconomic fundamentals of China and the U.S. are expected to shift in favor of China, with U.S. economic growth likely to weaken due to rising unemployment and declining consumer demand [3][4] - China's GDP growth target for 2026 is anticipated to be around 5.0%, with signs of economic stabilization expected in the latter half of the year [4] Group 3: Interest Rate Differentials - The interest rate differential between China and the U.S. is expected to narrow, which historically has been a leading indicator for changes in the RMB exchange rate [5][6] - The U.S. is likely to continue lowering interest rates, while China's bond yields may rise, further supporting the RMB [6] Group 4: Dollar Index Trends - The U.S. dollar index is projected to face downward pressure in 2026, which is expected to positively impact the RMB exchange rate [7] - Factors contributing to the dollar's decline include a weakening U.S. economy and favorable conditions for the euro and yen, which are significant components of the dollar index [7] Group 5: Future Projections - The RMB is expected to appreciate steadily in 2026, potentially reaching a range of 6.20-6.30, driven by strong demand for RMB assets [8] - Historical trends indicate that during periods of RMB appreciation, China's export growth tends to remain robust, suggesting a positive outlook for the economy [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the RMB exchange rate, highlighting its strength against other currencies and the implications of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions on the currency market [1]. Market Review - In November, the US Dollar Index reached above 100 twice due to falling expectations for a December Fed rate cut, concerns over dollar liquidity, and the impact of Japan's stock, bond, and currency markets on Asian currencies [1]. - By the end of November, the Fed's guidance raised expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in the Dollar Index and a recovery in risk appetite [1]. - The RMB showed strong performance among non-USD currencies, with both the closing price and the midpoint rate surpassing 7.08 at the end of the month [1]. Market Outlook - Spot Exchange Rate: The RMB is expected to continue its appreciation trend from late November into December, with potential opportunities arising from fluctuations in the USD/RMB exchange rate and adjustments in A-shares and external risk sentiment [1]. - Derivatives: A Fed rate cut in December is anticipated to provide upward momentum for swaps [1]. Strategy Recommendations - Starting from August 2025, foreign exchange options trading volume is projected to exceed that of swaps, becoming the largest derivative product by client transaction volume [1]. - The volatility of options (option premiums) has reached a ten-year low, presenting an excellent opportunity for enterprises that have not previously engaged with options products to explore [1].

Economic Outlook - The biggest uncertainty facing China's economy this year is the extreme pressure from external tariffs, but the first half of the year showed three positive aspects: actual GDP growth of 5.3%, new achievements in technology and consumption, and proactive government measures to mitigate potential shocks [2] - The growth in the first half was primarily driven by resilient external demand, contributing an additional 1 percentage point to GDP growth, while consumption and investment saw declines of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points respectively [3] - The second half of the year will depend on whether domestic demand can effectively take over, as investment, consumption, and external demand all showed signs of slowing down in August [4] Consumer Behavior and Debt Levels - The decline in household leverage is attributed to multiple factors, including structural changes in consumption behavior due to the pandemic, uncertainties in Sino-US trade relations, and fluctuations in asset prices affecting borrowing demand [5] - The ongoing deleveraging process among households poses challenges for traditional methods of stimulating consumption through increased leverage [5] Policy Recommendations - There is a need for stronger coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, focusing on enhancing the effectiveness of policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment [7] - Continuous monitoring of domestic and international economic conditions is essential to ensure timely policy responses, avoiding delays that could exacerbate economic downturns [7] - Policies should be carefully evaluated for consistency, especially those that may restrict consumption, to avoid counterproductive effects on economic stimulus [8] Currency Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB has shown resilience against the USD despite external pressures, with a cumulative appreciation of about 1% as of September 19, 2025, attributed to a combination of internal and external factors [10] - The RMB's exchange rate is influenced by various factors, including the depreciation of the USD and improvements in China's economic fundamentals, suggesting that the RMB is not significantly overvalued [11][12] - The ongoing trade surplus indicates upward pressure on the RMB, while domestic economic conditions suggest that it may be slightly overvalued relative to internal equilibrium levels [12] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite a net outflow of RMB in cross-border transactions, the overall market does not indicate significant concerns regarding the RMB's valuation [13] - Factors that could positively influence the RMB include potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and progress in Sino-US trade negotiations [14] - However, uncertainties remain regarding the pace of Fed rate cuts, future trade negotiations, and the impact of domestic economic conditions on consumer demand [14][16]