8月26日，人民币对美元汇率略有回调。人民币对美元汇率中间价调降27个基点，报7.1188。截至当日16时30分，在岸人民 币对美元汇率报7.1621，离岸人民币对美元汇率报7.163。 王有鑫表示，这一方面是对前一日汇率大幅上行的技术性调整，随着国内资本市场小幅盘整，汇率上涨势头也有所放缓。 另一方面是8月25日夜盘美元指数小幅反弹，对第二天的人民币汇率走势形成一定压制。 展望后期，王有鑫认为，短期来看，人民币汇率将继续呈现区间波动走势。国内经济运行稳中向好、资本市场的良好走势 以及交易层面企业结汇增加和跨境资本流入增多等因素，将对人民币汇率带来稳定支撑。但美联储政策调整和美国贸易政策不 确定性等不稳定因素在部分时点仍会对人民币汇率形成扰动。因此，短期仍将呈现区间波动态势。 王青预计，短期内人民币汇率还会处于偏强运行状态。长期来看，国际方面，伴随美联储恢复降息以及关税政策对美国经 济冲击逐步显现，美元指数还将承受一定下行压力；但上半年美元跌幅巨大，后期也会有较强的抗跌韧性。国内方面，外部波 动对我国出口的影响或逐步显现，而逆周期调节政策加码将确保经济运行基本稳定，这方面有充足的政策空间。由此，接下来 人民币 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 点评报告 2025 年 7 月 27 日 6 月外汇市场分析报告 人民币汇率升值行情延续，银行结售汇顺差继 续扩大 相关研究报告 《2022 年外汇市场分析报告：人民币汇率大起 大落，彰显外汇市场韧性》20230201 《2023 年外汇市场分析报告：人民币汇率延续 调整，境内外汇供求和跨境资金流动生变》 20240123 《2024 年外汇市场分析报告：汇率维稳目标顺 利完成，境内外汇供求缺口扩大》20250123 《1 月外汇市场分析报告：人民币汇率双向波 动，外汇供求缺口继续扩大》20250221 《2 月外汇市场分析报告：人民币汇率延续双 向波动，外汇供求缺口收窄》20250321 《3 月外汇市场分析报告：特朗普关税政策加 码，银行结售汇差额转正》20250424 《4 月外汇市场分析报告：极限关税施压无碍 银行结售汇顺差扩大》20250521 《5 月外汇市场分析报告：中美贸易冲突缓 和，人民币汇率压力明显缓解，银行结售汇顺 差继续扩大》20250622 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师: 管涛 在特朗普关税冲击继续缓和背景下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan's exchange rate indices have all declined, reaching their lowest levels since December 2020 and July 2023, indicating a weakening trend in the yuan against other currencies [1][2]. Exchange Rate Indices - CFETS yuan exchange rate index is reported at 95.58, down 0.38 week-on-week, marking the lowest since December 2020 [1] - BIS currency basket yuan exchange rate index stands at 101.23, down 0.35 week-on-week, the lowest since July 2023 [1] - SDR currency basket yuan exchange rate index is at 90.66, down 0.27 week-on-week [1] Dollar Performance - The US dollar has experienced a weekly decline of 0.24%, closing at 99.2, influenced by tariff policies and economic data [5] - Non-US currencies have generally appreciated against the dollar, with the euro rising 0.42% to 1.13, the British pound increasing by 0.54%, and the Australian dollar up 0.95% to 0.649 [5] Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that despite strong US non-farm payroll data, the underlying trends indicate a slowing economy, leading to expectations that the Federal Reserve will not adopt a more hawkish stance, which will keep the dollar under pressure [5] - Goldman Sachs predicts a new phase of dollar depreciation, with overseas investors diversifying their investments away from US assets [5][6] Future Yuan Outlook - Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley have raised their economic growth forecasts for China in 2025, suggesting that trade competitiveness will support a stronger yuan in the long term [6][7] - Deutsche Bank forecasts the yuan to appreciate to 7.0 against the dollar by the end of 2025 and further to 6.7 by the end of 2026 [8] - Goldman Sachs also anticipates a gradual rise of the yuan to 7.0 against the dollar over the next 12 months, supported by several factors including central bank interventions and improved export competitiveness [8] Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of May, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $32,853 billion, an increase of $36 billion from the end of April, supported by improving economic conditions [9] - The People's Bank of China reported a gold reserve of 73.83 million ounces (approximately 2,296.37 tons), marking a continuous increase for seven months [10]

Core Viewpoint - The RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.0 and 7.3 in June 2025, influenced by various domestic and international factors, including U.S. economic uncertainty and global monetary policy trends [6][7]. Market Review - In May 2025, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated within the range of 7.1722 to 7.2461, with the onshore rate between 7.1843 and 7.2461, the central parity rate between 7.1833 and 7.2095, and the offshore rate between 7.1722 and 7.2437 [3][4]. - Key factors affecting the RMB exchange rate included the easing of high tariffs during the U.S.-China trade talks, Moody's downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit rating, and significant increases in Japanese long-term bond yields [3][4]. - The Bank of England and the Bank of Korea both announced interest rate cuts in May, contributing to a global trend of monetary easing [3]. Domestic Factors - China's economy remained relatively stable amid global high tariffs and geopolitical tensions, with the central bank lowering the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [4]. - Following the U.S.-China trade talks, several international investment banks raised their GDP growth forecasts for China, with UBS increasing its forecast from 3.4% to between 3.7% and 4.0% [4]. Future Outlook for RMB Exchange Rate - The uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's policies may lead to short-term shocks to the U.S. economy, with the OECD lowering its U.S. GDP growth forecast from 2.2% to 1.6% [6]. - The potential for continued monetary easing in major global economies, including the Eurozone, may support the RMB [6]. - However, concerns over rising inflation due to U.S. tariff policies may lead the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts, which could negatively impact the RMB [6][7].

文/ 中银证券全球首席经济学家 管涛 特朗普执政时期，美国对中国进口多次加征关税。特朗普 1 . 0 时关税致人 民币汇率下跌，特朗普 2.0 至今虽关税冲突烈度超前者，但人民币未如预 期大幅贬值。三轮关税冲击有限，且中美经济与政策分化趋于收敛，美元 信用危机显现，经贸磋商或重启，在此背景下，人民币汇率有条件实现双 向波动，极限关税尽头未必是人民币贬值 。 特朗普1.0时期，美国政府于2018—2019年分四批将对中国进口加征关税，导致人民币汇率（如非特 指，本文均为人民币兑美元双边汇率）从6.28:1跌至7.10:1附近，中间价和境内外交易价均下跌10%以 上。特朗普2.0至今，又分别于2025年2、3、4月分三批对中国进口加征关税，最终税率高至145%，令 中美贸易几乎陷入停滞。特朗普2.0的关税冲突烈度远超过了特朗普1.0。有市场机构认为，贸易战的最 终战场很可能落在外汇市场上，人民币将会大幅贬值。然而，笔者以为，极限关税的尽头未必是人民币 贬值。 三轮关税的汇率冲击远不及上次 如前所述，特朗普1.0关税曾经让人民币汇率最多下跌了10%以上。然而，特朗普自2025年1月20日（均 指当地时间，下同）重返 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has strengthened against the USD, breaking the 7.20 mark for the first time since November 2024, driven by reduced risk sentiment and market optimism regarding US-China trade negotiations [2][5]. Exchange Rate Movement - Since reaching a low of 7.4, the offshore RMB has appreciated nearly 2.7% from April 8 to the present [2]. - On May 5, the offshore RMB/USD rate peaked at 7.1892 before slightly retreating to around 7.2041 by the end of the day [2]. - The recent surge began on April 30, with the offshore RMB rising from 7.27 to below 7.20, marking a 1% increase [2]. Market Sentiment and Influences - Market expectations of progress in US-China trade talks and reduced tensions have contributed to the RMB's strength [5]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce noted the US's willingness to negotiate on tariffs, which has been positively received by the market [5]. - A crowded long position in the USD and changing market dynamics regarding US economic conditions have triggered a new wave of USD selling [5]. Regional Currency Trends - The RMB's rise coincides with appreciation in other Asia-Pacific currencies, such as the Malaysian Ringgit, South Korean Won, and Thai Baht, all gaining over 1% against the USD [6]. - The Hong Kong Dollar has also strengthened, reaching its trading limit, influenced by the strong performance of the RMB and capital inflows from mainland China [6][7]. Capital Flows and Market Dynamics - Significant capital inflows from mainland China into Hong Kong have been observed, with net purchases through the Stock Connect channels reaching 570.9 billion CNY in 2025 [7]. - The upcoming dividend payments from Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, totaling 36.1 billion USD, are expected to increase demand for the Hong Kong Dollar [7]. Future Outlook - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain volatile in the second quarter but may stabilize over the year due to potential macroeconomic stimulus measures from the Chinese government [8]. - The People's Bank of China is anticipated to implement further monetary easing, including possible reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [8]. - The future trajectory of the RMB will depend on the progress of US-China negotiations and the potential recovery of Chinese exports [8][9].

Q： 请问重阳投资， 如何解读近期人民币汇率走势 ？ A： 4月份以来，人民币汇率呈现出对美元汇率稳定，对主要非美货币贬值的特征。 截止4月23日， 今年以来在岸人民币兑美元持平，但根据Wind以即期汇率估算的CFETS人民币汇率指数，今年以来 人民币对一篮子货币贬值幅度5.2%，今年以来最大贬值幅度已达5.7%。 人民币兑美元维持稳定，兑其他一篮子货币被动贬值是主动的政策选择的结果。 我们注意到，今年1 月末至3月中旬期间，央行始终将美元中间价设定在7.17附近。自3月开始中间价开始缓慢上移（趋向 于贬值），特别是在4月3日关税战升级后，央行进一步主动引导中间价上移，扩大人民币汇率弹性。 这样的结果是，在美元对其他主要货币快速贬值期间，人民币对美元汇率基本稳定，但是对欧元、日 元等主要货币贬值幅度超过10%。在我们看来，央行意在通过人民币对一篮子货币的贬值释放国内出 口压力。特别是在中美双边贸易接近冻结的情况下，人民币对欧元和日元贬值有助于增强中国出口竞 争力，起到汇率自动稳定器的作用。类似的情况也出现在首轮中美贸易战期间，2018年6-10月人民币 对一篮子货币最大贬值幅度6.2%，2019年5-10月人 ...