1月10日，中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛在第三十届（2026年度）中国资本市场论坛上指出，近期市 场部分观点存在对股市汇市同涨同跌的误解。他强调，股市和汇市有各自的运行逻辑，不应该把股市涨 简单归结为人民币升值，也不要把股市跌归结为人民币贬值。 管涛重点解析了近期市场存在的三个误解观点。第一个误解是股市汇市是同涨同跌。管涛对此表示，股 市和汇市虽然都属于资产价格，但会受到不同因素的影响。有时股市汇市呈现同涨同跌，是因为各自都 存在驱动因素。股市上涨、资产价格重估，不一定会带来汇率上涨。 管涛表示，汇率在更多时候发挥着"减震器"作用——如果汇率由市场供求决定，可及时对内外部冲击做 出反应，有助于及时释放升、贬值压力和预期。从中长期看，"经济强则货币强"的逻辑将支持人民币未 来走强，也支持了中国资本市场长期向好。但从短期来看，股市和汇市有各自的运行逻辑，不必把两个 市场紧密挂钩。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 第二个误解是汇率升值意味着资本流入，汇率贬值意味着资本外流。管涛指出，实际上，影响资本流动 的决定性因素并非汇率，而是国际收支结构。去年美元指数明显下跌，但美国财政部报告显示美国证券 投资项下的资本净流入呈现为 ...

12月30日晚，复旦大学"南土国际金融政策圆桌会第8期"暨"如何看待当前宏观金融形势系列"第1期在复 旦大学经济学院成功举办。岁末年初，复旦大学经济学院将连续举办4期经济形势研讨会，分别就人民 币汇率、经常账户顺差、跨境资本流动、宏观经济政策等问题展开深入讨论。 这些事件可以说是单独的，但另一个角度反映的是：新兴市场的经济正在超过发达国家，大家对于美国 的单极秩序的信心在下降。另外，在这个单极秩序之下，像原来日本这种比较安全的地方，正在变得不 确定性在上升。它反映了这样的秩序。这是我想说的金融市场的问题。 第二，关于人民币的问题。今年人民币到底是在升还是在贬？其实很大程度上取决于我们拿它跟哪个资 产或货币做比较。如果去看人民币兑美元的汇率，确实从年初7.3几现在跌破7了。但如果看外汇中心的 人民币一篮子货币指数，年初是102，最低跌到95，这两天回来一些大概在97。也就是美元在整体向 下，我们对美元的波动不大，最后导致的结果就是美元带着我们往下走。 会上，兴业证券董事总经理、首席经济学家、经济与金融研究院联席所长王涵以其敏锐的市场洞察，为 与会者勾勒了一幅当前全球金融秩序变迁与人民币未来走势的复杂图景。王涵指 ...

2025年12月30日，复旦大学经济学院举办了"南土国际金融政策圆桌会第8期"，同时也是"如何看待当前 宏观金融形势系列"的首场活动。本次圆桌会聚焦"当前人民币汇率走势"，由复旦大学国际金融系主任 杨长江教授主持。与会学者围绕美元周期波动、关税博弈以及资本流动等多重因素，系统分析了人民币 汇率的运行趋势，并深入探讨了中国在金融强国竞争中面临的现实制约及可行战略选择。 交通银行金融市场部副总经理、中国金融学会理事唐建伟指出，2025年人民币兑美元的升值趋势，其核 心意义已超越了短期的汇率波动，标志着市场对中国经济及金融前景的预期实现了实质性逆转。在中美 关税博弈、美元指数走弱以及国内信心修复的共同驱动下，人民币汇率的运行逻辑已由过去的单边贬值 压力，转向以基本面支撑与政策预期引导为核心的双向波动格局。他认为，这一阶段性的升值是美元信 用边际走弱、美联储政策转向与中国经济韧性共振的必然结果。 从外部环境看，唐建伟分析指出，美国财政赤字持续扩张与"大美丽法案"带来的债务负担，迫使美联储 未来必须通过降息及停止缩表来配合财政压力，这在很大程度上削弱了美元的中长期信用支撑。同时， 发达经济体货币政策的周期分化，叠加美股 ...

对手的立场我们也得看清楚，外部关切往往夹杂着自身政策选择的投射，所谓的"担忧"，有时是合理，有时只是为本国政策开脱的借口，问题是，你把焦点 放在对方的情绪上，往往忽略了自我调整的机会，听着看着，别忘了自己要做什么。 周五涨了54点，听上去平常，谁都能数得清，对吧，放到一周里，它累计上涨了约340点，涨幅0.49%，这不是偶然的小波动，这是趋势的一声咳嗽，或者 说是某种被压抑已久的呼吸，开始逐步扩张。 再说历史，别忘了以往的节点，人民币曾多次在全球流动性调整时表现出弹性，特别是在外部不确定性上升的时候，真正能撑得住的，往往不是一时的资本 流入，而是经济基本面和政策体系的韧性，换句话说，短线涨跌可以被交易员玩弄，长期走势却要靠结构性力量来支撑。 有人会问，涨54点，能说明什么，能说明市场信心吗，能说明政策有效吗，我倒想反问，市场信心是谁给的，政策有效是谁来验证，光看一个尾盘的数字， 就想把复杂问题框定成简单结论，这不是偷懒，是自欺。 还有利益考量，不要把资本想得太单纯，资本像河流，有时它需要一条河道，有时它更在意出路与成本，人民币走强，意味着进口账单便宜些，企业负担会 轻一点，同时也意味着部分热钱的套利空间缩小了 ...

反观我国，2025年中央经济工作会议指出，"经济社会发展主要目标将顺利实现"。在2025年实现"5.0% 左右"的GDP增速预期目标的情况下，2026年的GDP增速预期目标大概率也设置为"5.0%左右"。此外， 从宏观经济的运行看，2026年下半年我国PPI当月同比大概率能够转正，这就预示2026年下半年我国宏 观经济大概率企稳回升。综上，2026年中美两国宏观经济基本面发生了相对有利于我国的转变，对人民 币汇率形成实质性支撑。 【环球网财经综合报道】汇率在投资生活中具有十分重要的地位。资本在进行全球配置时，首要考量因 素是汇率走势，毕竟投资面临的第一个问题是资金要投向哪个国家。通常情况下，汇率升值的国家，其 宏观经济基本面处于向好趋势之中，相应地，其利率处于从底部向上升的进程中，此外，其资产价格也 处于上行过程中，也就是说，投资于汇率升值的国家的资产，可享受汇率升值、利率上行、实体投资收 益率上升以及金融资产收益率上升的四重利好。综上，准确研判全球主要汇率走势，有利于大幅提高投 资收益率。 然而，国际财经界长期以来存在的一个共识是，"汇率是不可预测的"，正如美联储前主席格林斯潘曾经 在2004年3月的纽约经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the RMB exchange rate, highlighting its strength against other currencies and the implications of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions on the currency market [1]. Market Review - In November, the US Dollar Index reached above 100 twice due to falling expectations for a December Fed rate cut, concerns over dollar liquidity, and the impact of Japan's stock, bond, and currency markets on Asian currencies [1]. - By the end of November, the Fed's guidance raised expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in the Dollar Index and a recovery in risk appetite [1]. - The RMB showed strong performance among non-USD currencies, with both the closing price and the midpoint rate surpassing 7.08 at the end of the month [1]. Market Outlook - Spot Exchange Rate: The RMB is expected to continue its appreciation trend from late November into December, with potential opportunities arising from fluctuations in the USD/RMB exchange rate and adjustments in A-shares and external risk sentiment [1]. - Derivatives: A Fed rate cut in December is anticipated to provide upward momentum for swaps [1]. Strategy Recommendations - Starting from August 2025, foreign exchange options trading volume is projected to exceed that of swaps, becoming the largest derivative product by client transaction volume [1]. - The volatility of options (option premiums) has reached a ten-year low, presenting an excellent opportunity for enterprises that have not previously engaged with options products to explore [1].

Economic Outlook - The biggest uncertainty facing China's economy this year is the extreme pressure from external tariffs, but the first half of the year showed three positive aspects: actual GDP growth of 5.3%, new achievements in technology and consumption, and proactive government measures to mitigate potential shocks [2] - The growth in the first half was primarily driven by resilient external demand, contributing an additional 1 percentage point to GDP growth, while consumption and investment saw declines of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points respectively [3] - The second half of the year will depend on whether domestic demand can effectively take over, as investment, consumption, and external demand all showed signs of slowing down in August [4] Consumer Behavior and Debt Levels - The decline in household leverage is attributed to multiple factors, including structural changes in consumption behavior due to the pandemic, uncertainties in Sino-US trade relations, and fluctuations in asset prices affecting borrowing demand [5] - The ongoing deleveraging process among households poses challenges for traditional methods of stimulating consumption through increased leverage [5] Policy Recommendations - There is a need for stronger coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, focusing on enhancing the effectiveness of policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment [7] - Continuous monitoring of domestic and international economic conditions is essential to ensure timely policy responses, avoiding delays that could exacerbate economic downturns [7] - Policies should be carefully evaluated for consistency, especially those that may restrict consumption, to avoid counterproductive effects on economic stimulus [8] Currency Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB has shown resilience against the USD despite external pressures, with a cumulative appreciation of about 1% as of September 19, 2025, attributed to a combination of internal and external factors [10] - The RMB's exchange rate is influenced by various factors, including the depreciation of the USD and improvements in China's economic fundamentals, suggesting that the RMB is not significantly overvalued [11][12] - The ongoing trade surplus indicates upward pressure on the RMB, while domestic economic conditions suggest that it may be slightly overvalued relative to internal equilibrium levels [12] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite a net outflow of RMB in cross-border transactions, the overall market does not indicate significant concerns regarding the RMB's valuation [13] - Factors that could positively influence the RMB include potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and progress in Sino-US trade negotiations [14] - However, uncertainties remain regarding the pace of Fed rate cuts, future trade negotiations, and the impact of domestic economic conditions on consumer demand [14][16]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4% - 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year and a resumption of easing measures since December of the previous year [2][4] Economic Indicators - Recent indicators show a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of the year, with job growth decelerating and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [3][4] - The inflation rate has risen and remains slightly elevated [3] Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) aims to maximize employment and maintain an inflation rate of 2%, while acknowledging the uncertainty in the economic outlook [4] - The FOMC has noted an increase in the risks associated with employment [4] Future Rate Expectations - Predictions suggest the Fed may lower rates to around 3% in the future, with potential further reductions by the end of 2026 [2][7] - The dot plot indicates that most Fed officials expect two more rate cuts in 2025, with some anticipating a total of five cuts to bring rates below 3% [7] Market Reactions - Following the rate cut announcement, the U.S. dollar index fell to 96.22, the lowest since February 2022, while gold prices surged, surpassing $3,700 per ounce [11][12] - The U.S. stock market experienced volatility, with the S&P 500 index slightly declining and the Nasdaq index also falling after an initial rise [12] Global Monetary Policy Implications - The Fed's rate cut may open up space for other countries to ease their monetary policies, as seen with the Bank of Canada also lowering its benchmark rate [8] - Analysts suggest that the Fed's actions could create favorable external conditions for domestic monetary easing in other countries, including China [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Alibaba plans to issue zero-coupon convertible bonds maturing in 2032, aiming to raise $3.17 billion, which is expected to be the largest transaction of its kind this year [2] - The convertible bond ETF (511380) has seen a recent increase of 0.69%, with a latest price of 13.28 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 0.93% over the past week [2] - The trading volume of the convertible bond ETF was active, with a turnover rate of 16.52% and a transaction value of 10.546 billion yuan, indicating strong market activity [2] Group 2 - The latest scale of the convertible bond ETF reached 63.684 billion yuan, with a recent net outflow of 372 million yuan [3] - Over the past five trading days, there were three days of net inflow, totaling 827 million yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 165 million yuan [3] - The convertible bond market is significantly influenced by the interest rate environment and credit spread changes, with the current RMB exchange rate being supported by cross-border capital flows and rapid growth in domestic foreign exchange deposits [3]

Currency and Economic Outlook - Citic Securities predicts that the RMB exchange rate may require more catalysts to break the 7 level, despite a recent appreciation driven by external and internal factors [1] - Goldman Sachs expects an acceleration in trading activity in France despite political turmoil, indicating that France remains an attractive investment destination [2] - MUFG analysts believe that the current political situation in France is unlikely to disrupt the upward trend of the euro [3] - Deutsche Bank reports that the UK 30-year government bond yield has reached its highest level since 1998, raising concerns about public finance sustainability [3] Inflation and Interest Rates - CICC forecasts that the US inflation rate may continue to rise, impacting the bond market dynamics [4] - Huatai Securities emphasizes that a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve could drive down real interest rates in the US, benefiting gold investments [5] - The analysis suggests that unless the US economy returns to a high-growth, low-inflation scenario, the current gold buying strategy may persist [5] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights that typical gold companies currently have favorable valuations and are expected to benefit significantly from rising gold prices and increased production [5] - The narrowing gold-silver ratio is anticipated to occur after a period of monetary easing, suggesting potential investment opportunities in silver if the economy stabilizes post-rate cuts [5]