Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the National Medical Products Administration and the General Administration of Customs to allow the import of cow bile for traditional Chinese medicine production is expected to alleviate the supply shortage and stabilize prices of cow bile, benefiting high-end traditional Chinese medicine companies like Tong Ren Tang and Pian Zai Huang [2][3][12]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Implications - The pilot program for importing cow bile will last for two years and is limited to specific regions in China, allowing only designated companies to use the imported cow bile for their own production [5][7]. - The import of cow bile is a significant policy shift after nearly 24 years of restrictions due to concerns over mad cow disease, which had previously led to a complete ban on imported bovine materials [5][6]. - The pilot aims to create a controlled supply chain, ensuring that imported cow bile is used solely within the group of companies that import it, preventing external sales [7][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Supply Chain - The natural cow bile market in China faces a significant supply-demand gap, with an annual demand of approximately 5 to 8 tons against a domestic production of only about 900 kilograms [6][12]. - The global cattle population is approximately ten times that of China, indicating a substantial potential for international supply to meet domestic needs [6]. - The introduction of imported cow bile is expected to lead to a stratified supply chain, where larger companies can better manage resources and mitigate price fluctuations in the international market [7][8]. Group 3: Price Trends and Market Reactions - The price of natural cow bile has seen a dramatic increase, rising from 570,000 yuan per kilogram at the beginning of 2023 to 1,700,000 yuan per kilogram by the end of 2024, marking a 198.25% increase [11][12]. - Despite the potential for imported cow bile to stabilize prices, some industry experts remain cautious, suggesting that the high price trend for natural cow bile may not change quickly [15]. - Companies like Tong Ren Tang have expressed a conservative stance regarding the impact of the new policy on cost pressures, indicating that multiple factors will influence the effectiveness of the pilot program [12][13].