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大批中成药将退出市场
21世纪经济报道· 2026-01-27 09:37
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impending regulatory changes in the Chinese traditional medicine sector, particularly the "death clause" for traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) products, which will lead to the elimination of over 70% of existing TCM approvals due to safety information issues by July 2026 [1][4]. Regulatory Changes - The National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) has implemented a new regulation that will not allow re-registration of TCM products if any safety information in their instructions remains "unclear" after three years from July 1, 2023 [1][4]. - As of 2025, multiple announcements have been made requiring TCM products to supplement core safety information, indicating a shift towards stricter regulatory compliance [3]. Industry Impact - The regulatory changes are expected to create a significant divide in the industry, with leading companies like Baiyunshan generating revenues of 61.606 billion yuan, while smaller firms struggle with revenues around 6 million yuan [4]. - The cost of compliance for smaller firms is estimated to be around 20 million yuan over three years, which could deplete their profits, while larger firms have the resources to manage these costs effectively [4]. Market Dynamics - The article predicts that 30% to 40% of TCM approvals will exit the market in the next 3-5 years, leading to a more concentrated market where only high-quality products with clinical value will survive [6][8]. - The regulatory framework is pushing for a transition from quantity to quality in the TCM industry, with a focus on clinical value and scientific evidence [8]. Strategic Responses - Companies are advised to focus on three main strategies: conducting real-world studies to supplement safety data, applying for new drug status for promising products, and voluntarily canceling low-value approvals to concentrate on core products [8]. - The future market will see increased entry barriers, with only products that demonstrate safety and clinical value being supported by insurance and procurement channels [8].