中观景气度投资

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“中观景气度猎手”是如何炼成的?——访申万菱信基金副总经理贾成东
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-05-18 18:13
Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy emphasizes focusing on industry prosperity and selecting quality stocks based on macroeconomic trends and sector performance [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Focus and Investment Strategy - The investment approach is centered around industry prosperity, utilizing a macro perspective to identify key investment points across various sectors [2][3]. - The current A-share market has over 5,000 listed companies, making it challenging to select individual stocks efficiently; thus, focusing on industry research can mitigate risks associated with single stocks [2]. - The investment style has evolved to prioritize industry dynamics rather than relying solely on individual stock performance [3]. Group 2: Importance of Expectations and Imagination - Stock prices reflect investors' expectations about a company's future; thus, having a compelling narrative is crucial for attracting investment [4][5]. - Successful stocks often have a strong narrative that aligns with broader economic trends, such as the rise of premium consumer goods driven by economic growth and consumer upgrading [4]. - The sustainability of industry growth rates is critical for assessing industry prosperity, distinguishing between current performance and future expectations [5]. Group 3: Timing and Market Dynamics - Different industries have varying optimal investment timings; for instance, technology stocks may require different strategies at different growth stages [5]. - The recent surge in AI-related sectors highlights the need to focus on structural details rather than just macro narratives, with an emphasis on high-dividend stocks that also exhibit growth potential [6].