一，今日要点 连续两天大跌，今天很多大V的观点都变得谨慎起来，那么年终行情是不是要离我们远去了呢？ 二，散户聚焦 很多人把今天的下跌和这两天的东亚局势进行了挂钩，证据就是今天日经指数领跌整个亚太市场，你说没有影响那不可能，但你说就是因为这个那就有点小 题大作了。 事实上，由于昨晚美联储继续发表比较鹰派的观点，加上周三英伟达业绩发布，周四非农数据发布，这都让美股市场的避险资金率先出局，这是根本所在。 | 3.50 - 3.75 | 46.4% | 42.4% | | --- | --- | --- | | 3.75 - 4.00 | 53.6% | 57.6% | 可能有的人会说，为什么今天国内的半导体反而是上涨的，实际上这阶段国内相关的Ai题材是电网、储能、有色这些Ai的上游，而这些今天跌的其实很猛 烈，相反国产芯片和海外Ai关联并不高，再叠加目前存储芯片的供需平衡被打破，反而给半导体芯片一定的想象空间。 有的投资者可能还有疑问，既然美股对我们影响不大，为什么市场还跌呢？我之前说过流动性就算来了，还要看央行的分配，而今天美元兑RMB的一年掉 期明显走低，显然不利于股市。 所以，综合来看一切都是因为美联储降息可 ...

铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 日期：2025年11月16日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：短期宏观风偏走弱，22000关口位置遭遇一定回调压力 ◆ 短期微观供需上，年末去库将主要取决于4季度光伏排产的同比降幅，以及来料加工项下的铝锭进口减量，倾向看至年底降至 略高于去年底水位，但绝对位置应仍偏低。铝锭社库本周累库0.7万吨至61.4万吨，60整数关口的库存已维持将近2.5个月。下 游需求侧，本周仍相对有韧性。截至11月14日，SMM华东现货贴水重新转平水，华南现货贴水先抑后扬，仍在贴水145元/吨。 下游方面，截至11月14日铝板带箔周度总产量继续环比回升，年初迄今累计同比下降-1.63%，降幅较前周连续第2周收窄； 截至11月14日铝型材产量仍在稳中下滑。下游加工利润看，铝棒加工费本周一度冲高至340元/吨后有所回落，但幅度温和， 周五较前周回落40元/吨至240元/吨，目前处在历年同期偏中低位， ...

Core Insights - QFII continues to favor A-share core assets, particularly in high-end manufacturing and defensive sectors, reflecting a strategic shift towards tactical accumulation under domestic autonomy logic [1][7][11] - As of the end of Q3, nearly 40 QFII institutions held approximately 119.4 billion yuan in A-shares, indicating a significant foreign interest in the Chinese market [1][10] QFII Investment Trends - QFII has increased holdings in over 500 A-share companies, with notable investments in banking, electrical equipment, building materials, chemicals, software services, machinery, and hardware [2][3] - Major QFII purchases include 124 million shares of Nanjing Bank by BNP Paribas and 72.85 million shares of China West Electric by JPMorgan Securities, highlighting a focus on financial stability and growth potential [2][3] Key Stocks and Sectors - Significant QFII increases were observed in stocks such as Oriental Yuhong, Baofeng Energy, and Huasheng Tiancheng, with multiple QFII institutions accumulating shares [4][5] - The most heavily accumulated stocks include Nanjing Bank, China West Electric, and Shengyi Technology, with QFII holdings in these companies reaching substantial market values [11][12] Sector Analysis - The banking sector saw a total increase of 124 million shares, while electrical equipment and computer sectors also received notable QFII investments, driven by stable dividends and growth prospects [7][11] - QFII's diversified approach includes investments across various industries, such as machinery, food and beverage, and biopharmaceuticals, while maintaining a focus on leading companies and core assets [11][12] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that QFII's continued interest in Chinese assets reflects confidence in the market's upward trajectory, despite potential short-term fluctuations [13][14] - High-profile institutions like Goldman Sachs and UBS maintain a positive outlook on Chinese equities, advocating for a diversified investment strategy that includes growth stocks and high cash yield portfolios [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - QFII continues to favor A-share core assets, particularly in high-end manufacturing, while also diversifying into defensive assets and sectors aligned with domestic production trends [1][7][10]. Group 1: QFII Investment Trends - In Q3, QFII increased holdings in over 500 A-share companies, with significant investments in banking, electrical equipment, building materials, chemicals, software services, machinery, and hardware sectors [3][10]. - Notable increases include 124 million shares in Nanjing Bank by BNP Paribas and 72.85 million shares in China West Electric by JPMorgan Securities, making them the top two stocks with QFII accumulation [3][6]. Group 2: Key Stocks with Increased Holdings - Key stocks with significant QFII increases include Nanjing Bank, China West Electric, Oriental Yuhong, Baofeng Energy, and Huasheng Tiancheng, among others [3][5][6]. - Specific increases include 6.52 million shares in Huasheng Tiancheng by Morgan Stanley and 3.09 million shares in Kosen Technology by UBS [4][6]. Group 3: Sector Preferences - QFII's top sectors for increased stock counts are banking, electrical equipment, and computing, with banks attracting attention due to stable dividend rates and improving performance expectations [7][10]. - The electrical equipment sector benefits from strong policy support and demand growth driven by energy transition and grid upgrades [7][10]. Group 4: Portfolio Diversification - QFII maintains a diversified portfolio, with nearly 40 firms holding a total A-share market value of approximately 119.4 billion yuan by the end of Q3 [9][10]. - Major holdings include Ningbo Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Shengyi Technology, reflecting a focus on core assets while pursuing diversification across various industries [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Some foreign institutions remain optimistic about Chinese assets, with recommendations to shift from "selling high" to "buying low" as market conditions evolve [11]. - Analysts suggest focusing on growth stocks, particularly leading private enterprises, AI themes, and small-cap stocks in the A-share market [11].

Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The long - and short - end of US Treasury yields continued to decline last week, and the long - end briefly fell below 4%, suggesting an increased market bet on US economic recession. The gold price correction on Friday raised concerns about changing market bets. Global liquidity is shifting more firmly towards easing, which will fuel the further bubble of AI themes, strengthen market structuring, benefit the technology sector in the short - term, and be negative for precious metals [1][43][44]. - China's ChiNext and STAR Market weakened with a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and convertible bonds followed suit. Low - price, large - cap, and high - rating convertible bonds were relatively resilient. The high - low rotation in the convertible bond market preceded that in the equity market, possibly due to factors such as the amplification effect of convertible bond valuation, large - scale redemptions of high - standard bonds, and the low risk appetite of convertible bond investors [1][44]. - Considering both external and domestic factors, the main logic of technology computing power and electricity remains valid. With the approaching earnings season, it is recommended to focus on sectors with relatively certain earnings improvement, such as new energy and some chemical fields. Convertible bonds like Pingmei, Yuguang, Xingfa, Aidi, Saite, and Shouhua are recommended for their defensive properties [1]. - The top ten convertible bonds with the highest probability of downward revision next week are Ziyin, Lanfan, Dongshi, Baolai, Longda, Jiangong, Wanqing, Jidong, Shanlu, and Aojia Convertible Bonds [1][44]. - The top ten high - rating, medium - low - price convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are Sheng24, Changji, Pufa, Chunqiu, Ying19, Xiwang, Liqun, Wentai, Liuyao, and Jieneng Convertible Bonds [1][44]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Market Review 1.1 Equity Market Declined Overall - From October 13th to 17th, the equity market declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.47% to 3839.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 4.99% to 12688.94 points, the ChiNext Index decreased 5.71% to 2935.37 points, and the CSI 300 Index declined 2.22% to 4514.23 points. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased by about 2039.56 billion yuan to 21766.30 billion yuan, a week - on - week decline of 8.57% [6][10]. - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 4 industries rose, with 2 industries rising more than 2%. Banking, coal, food and beverage, and transportation led the gains, rising 4.89%, 4.17%, 0.86%, and 0.37% respectively. Electronics, media, automobiles, communications, and machinery led the losses, with declines of 7.14%, 6.27%, 5.99%, 5.92%, and 5.84% respectively [13]. 1.2 Convertible Bond Market Declined Overall - From October 13th to 17th, the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 2.35% to 474.22 points. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, only the banking industry rose 0.93%. Electronics, communications, national defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, and computers led the losses, falling 6.45%, 5.71%, 5.25%, 5.13%, and 4.59% respectively [16]. - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 709.50 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 54.72 billion yuan, a week - on - week change of - 7.16%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume were Yuguang, Guanzhong, Huicheng, Wentai, Jingxing, Wujin, Saili, Yiwei, Luwei, and Outong Convertible Bonds [16]. - Approximately 10.66% of convertible bond issues rose, about 6.64% had a gain between 0 - 1%, and 1.66% had a gain of over 2% [16]. 1.3 Comparison of Stock and Bond Market Sentiments - From October 13th to 17th, the weekly weighted average and median of convertible bond and underlying stock returns were negative, and the underlying stocks had a larger decline. In terms of trading volume, the convertible bond market's trading volume increased 16.05% week - on - week, at the 66.60% quantile since 2022, while the underlying stock market's trading volume increased 11.91% week - on - week, at the 94.70% quantile since 2022. About 10.85% of convertible bonds and 17.46% of underlying stocks rose, and about 66.84% of convertible bonds had a higher return than their underlying stocks. Overall, the trading sentiment in the convertible bond market was better [40]. - On specific trading days, the convertible bond market had better trading sentiment on October 13th, 16th, and 17th, while the underlying stock market had better trading sentiment on October 14th and 15th [41]. 2. Outlook and Investment Strategy - The main logic of technology computing power and electricity remains valid, and relevant catalysts have both short - term intermittency and long - term sustainability. Near the earnings season, it is recommended to focus on sectors with relatively certain earnings improvement, such as new energy and some chemical fields. Convertible bonds like Pingmei, Yuguang, Xingfa, Aidi, Saite, and Shouhua are recommended [1][44]. - The top ten convertible bonds with the highest probability of downward revision next week are Ziyin, Lanfan, Dongshi, Baolai, Longda, Jiangong, Wanqing, Jidong, Shanlu, and Aojia Convertible Bonds [1][44][45]. - The top ten high - rating, medium - low - price convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are Sheng24, Changji, Pufa, Chunqiu, Ying19, Xiwang, Liqun, Wentai, Liuyao, and Jieneng Convertible Bonds [1][44][46].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has reached new highs in 2023, with all three major indices showing positive growth, indicating a strong market sentiment and potential for continued upward movement [1][2]. Market Performance - As of July 22, 2023, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.62% to 3581.86, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.84% to 11099.83, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.61% to 2310.86 [2]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 193.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 2500 stocks rising and more than a hundred stocks hitting the daily limit [2]. Sector Performance - The infrastructure sector showed strong performance, particularly in cement stocks, which experienced a surge in limit-up stocks. Other sectors such as coal, organic silicon, pork, liquor, precious metals, and Hainan Free Trade Zone also saw significant gains [4]. - Specific stocks in the hydropower sector, including Poly Union, China Power Construction, and Jiangnan Chemical, saw nearly 20 stocks hit the daily limit [5]. - The coal sector experienced a notable afternoon rally, with companies like Lu'an Environmental Energy, Jinkong Coal Industry, and Shanmei International seeing eight stocks hit the daily limit [6]. Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the coal, machinery equipment, and precious metals sectors, while outflows were noted in pharmaceuticals, public utilities, and education sectors [7]. - Individual stocks such as Great Wall Military Industry, Kweichow Moutai, and Tebian Electric Apparatus received net inflows of 929 million yuan, 782 million yuan, and 578 million yuan, respectively [8]. - Conversely, stocks like Northern Rare Earth, Wolong Electric Drive, and Construction Industry faced net outflows of 883 million yuan, 701 million yuan, and 676 million yuan, respectively [9]. Institutional Insights - Guorong Securities suggests that the market's upward trend is likely to continue [10]. - Dexun Securities notes that the indices are steadily rising, showcasing a healthy structure of price increase and volume growth, with strong bullish momentum and improved market sentiment [11]. - Zhongtai Securities indicates that the current market sentiment is high, fueled by recent large-scale infrastructure announcements, and suggests maintaining a relatively optimistic outlook while focusing on sectors like robotics and low-altitude economy [11].

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy emphasizes focusing on industry prosperity and selecting quality stocks based on macroeconomic trends and sector performance [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Focus and Investment Strategy - The investment approach is centered around industry prosperity, utilizing a macro perspective to identify key investment points across various sectors [2][3]. - The current A-share market has over 5,000 listed companies, making it challenging to select individual stocks efficiently; thus, focusing on industry research can mitigate risks associated with single stocks [2]. - The investment style has evolved to prioritize industry dynamics rather than relying solely on individual stock performance [3]. Group 2: Importance of Expectations and Imagination - Stock prices reflect investors' expectations about a company's future; thus, having a compelling narrative is crucial for attracting investment [4][5]. - Successful stocks often have a strong narrative that aligns with broader economic trends, such as the rise of premium consumer goods driven by economic growth and consumer upgrading [4]. - The sustainability of industry growth rates is critical for assessing industry prosperity, distinguishing between current performance and future expectations [5]. Group 3: Timing and Market Dynamics - Different industries have varying optimal investment timings; for instance, technology stocks may require different strategies at different growth stages [5]. - The recent surge in AI-related sectors highlights the need to focus on structural details rather than just macro narratives, with an emphasis on high-dividend stocks that also exhibit growth potential [6].

A股各行业龙头是回购主力军！A50ETF基金 (159592)午后震荡反弹，实时成交额超2900万元 2025年3月26日，A股市场上证指数午后上涨翻红，A50指数午后弹性居前。A50指数成份股中，牧 原股份、小商品城、恒瑞医药涨超3%，比亚迪、隆基绿能、海螺水泥、中国神华涨超1%。A50ETF基 金（159592）上个月日均成交额1.05亿元，市场热度较高。 相关产品：A50ETF基金（159592） A50ETF基金（159592）跟踪中证A50指数，布局各行业超大市值龙头股和绩优大白马，通过行业 中性化超配"新质生产力"行业。指数编制方案纳入ESG和互联互通筛选，便利"东升西落"逻辑下的外资 回流配置，业绩披露期具有盈利确定性的龙头股有望获得市场青睐。前期AI题材涨幅较高背景下，权 重蓝筹也有望补涨。 （文章来源：界面新闻） 华金证券认为，在盈利方面，预计2025年第二季度、第三季度、第四季度全A净利润同比增速分别 为6.83%、10.85%、8.47%，全年净利润同比增速为6.95%，显示出A股企业盈利能力正在逐步恢复，尤 其是在政策支持下，经济盈利修复预期上升，这为A股提供了坚实的基本面支撑。其次， ...