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中长期纯债基金三季报分析:业绩降温,规模大幅减少
Guoxin Securities· 2025-10-30 14:48
Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - As of the end of Q3 2025, the issuance and scale of medium- and long-term pure bond funds decreased, with the average asset and net asset scales also declining, and the average leverage ratio dropping. The single-quarter average net value growth rate of medium- and long-term pure bonds was -0.32%, lower than that of the previous quarter. In terms of asset allocation, the proportion of bond assets decreased, and the proportion of enterprise-issued bonds increased. The top-performing medium- and long-term pure bond fund adopted a defensive strategy and achieved a net value return of 1.26% in the "bear-flattening" trend in Q3 [1][2][50]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Q3 Medium- and Long-Term Pure Bond Fund Basic Situation - **Issuance Quantity and Scale Decrease**: As of the end of Q3 2025, there were 2,428 medium- and long-term pure bond funds outstanding, accounting for 18.2% of the entire fund market. In Q3, 65 medium- and long-term pure bond funds were issued, with a issuance share of 17.2 billion, a significant decrease compared to the previous quarter and a decline compared to the same period last year [1][9]. - **Fund Scale Declines**: As of the end of Q3 2025, the total assets and net assets of medium- and long-term pure bond funds that had disclosed quarterly reports were 7.1463 trillion yuan and 5.9676 trillion yuan respectively, a decrease of 868.6 billion yuan and 555.8 billion yuan compared to the end of the previous quarter. The average total assets and net assets were 3.4 billion yuan and 2.8 billion yuan respectively, a decrease of 500 million yuan and 300 million yuan compared to the end of the previous quarter. Among the 2,107 old medium- and long-term pure bond funds that had announced performance, 449 achieved positive net asset scale growth, while 1,658 had a decline in net assets. The largest decrease in net asset scale was Huaxia Dingmao, with a decrease of 18.36 billion yuan [1][10]. - **Average Leverage Ratio Drops**: At the end of Q3 2025, the average leverage ratio of medium- and long-term pure bond funds under the overall method was 1.20, a decrease of 0.03 compared to the end of the previous quarter. Under the average method, the average leverage ratio was 1.17, also a decrease of 0.03 compared to the end of the previous quarter [1][14]. - **Net Value Growth Rate Declines**: In Q3 2025, the bond market yield showed a significant upward trend, presenting a "bear-flattening" feature. The 10-year Treasury bond yield fluctuated between 1.64% - 1.92% and closed at 1.88% at the end of the quarter. The single-quarter average net value growth rate of medium- and long-term pure bonds was -0.32%, lower than that of the previous quarter. Among the 2,107 funds that had disclosed performance, 617 had a positive net value growth rate, accounting for 29.5%, a significant decrease in proportion [1][16][19]. 2025 Q3 Medium- and Long-Term Pure Bond Fund Asset Allocation - **Bond Asset Allocation Decreases**: As of the end of Q3 2025, the total assets of medium- and long-term pure bond funds were 7.1463 trillion yuan, including 6.9339 trillion yuan in bond assets, 69.2 billion yuan in bank deposits, 132.2 billion yuan in repurchase assets, and 11 billion yuan in other assets. Bond assets decreased by 900 billion yuan compared to the previous quarter, while bank deposits, repurchase assets, and other assets changed by -7.3 billion yuan, 59.1 billion yuan, and -20.5 billion yuan respectively. In terms of proportion, bond assets still accounted for the highest proportion at 97.0%, a decrease of 0.7% compared to the previous quarter; bank deposits accounted for 1.0%, the same as the previous quarter; repurchase assets and other assets accounted for 1.8% and 0.2% of total assets respectively, with a change of 0.9% and -0.2% compared to the previous quarter [25]. - **Enterprise Bond Allocation Increases**: As of the end of Q3 2025, the main bond types held by medium- and long-term pure bond funds were interest rate bonds, financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds), and enterprise-issued bonds, accounting for 48.7%, 22.2%, and 25.4% of the total bond assets respectively. Negotiable certificates of deposit, asset-backed securities, and other bonds accounted for 1.7%, 0.2%, and 1.8% of total assets respectively. Compared to the end of the previous quarter, the proportions of interest rate bonds, financial bonds, and enterprise-issued bonds in bond assets changed by -0.9%, -0.1%, and 1.8% respectively, while the proportions of negotiable certificates of deposit and other bonds changed by -0.3% and -0.5% respectively, and the proportion of asset-backed securities remained basically the same as the previous quarter [2][28]. 2025 Q3 High-Performing Funds - **Fund A Adopts Defensive Strategy**: Fund A, which ranked first in net value return, reduced bond allocation and increased bank deposit allocation to cope with bond market fluctuations in Q3 2025. Among medium- and long-term pure bond funds with a scale of over 1 billion yuan, Fund A ranked first among its peers with a net value growth rate of 1.26%. The fund adjusted its strategy in multiple dimensions to cope with bond market fluctuations, including reducing bond positions and increasing bank deposit allocation in the allocation aspect; continuing to focus on policy bank bonds (accounting for 38.14%) in bond type selection, and simultaneously increasing the allocation of credit bonds (accounting for 22.59%) and convertible bonds (accounting for 18.14%); shortening the portfolio duration from 6.04 years to 4.98 years in duration management to defend against long-term interest rate fluctuation risks; and moderately increasing the leverage ratio from 102.7% to 114.1% in leverage operation [41].