● 本报记者 魏昭宇 在震荡的债市中，一场基于预期差与性价比的博弈正在悄然展开。 近期股债跷跷板效应再现，债券市场在8月经历了一轮显著调整，不少中长期纯债基金净值承压。面对 债券收益率走高、债基频现赎回等多重考验，固收基金经理们展现出不同的应对策略：有的已开始积极 左侧布局，视当前为难得的买点；有的审慎观望，认为布局时点未至，更倾向于缩短久期、提升流动 性。 展望后市，业内人士表示，从流动性角度来说，人民银行始终表态将维持适度宽松的货币政策，保持流 动性充裕。8月以来，面对债券收益率调整，人民银行增量续作买断式逆回购和MLF，显示出对市场流 动性的呵护。当前大幅收紧流动性的概率较小，债券收益率大幅上行的概率不大。 操作更加积极 近期，与权益市场回暖形成对照的是债券市场的震荡走弱。以10年期国债收益率的走势为例，Wind数 据显示，今年7月初，10年期国债收益率一度在1.65%附近徘徊，然而到了8月下半月，该数据一度冲上 1.8%。 债券收益率走高带来的是其价格下行。受此影响，相关债基近期表现不尽如人意。Wind数据显示，截 至8月25日，万得中长期纯债型基金指数8月以来下跌0.17%。具体来看，截至8月25日 ...

近期，股债"跷跷板效应"再现。债券市场在8月经历了一轮显著调整，不少中长期纯债基金净值承压。 面对利率上行、债基赎回等多重考验，固收基金经理展现出不同的应对策略：有的已开始积极布局，视 当前收益率为难得的"买点"；有的则审慎观望，更倾向于缩短久期、提升流动性。 操作更加积极 国泰基金基金经理胡智磊在近期的策略会上提示了当下时点的性价比。他表示，债市出现超调或转向的 概率不大。若权益市场走弱或者由快速上涨转为震荡、"反内卷"相关商品价格冲高回落或央行重启买 债，债市情绪有望快速企稳。站在目前位置，对债市不应过度悲观。10年国债收益率在1.75%附近、30 年国债在2.0%附近具有较高性价比。策略上，可以逐步加仓博弈市场情绪回暖之后的修复行情。 近期，与权益市场回暖形成对比的，是债券市场的震荡走弱。以10年期国债收益率走势为例，数据显 示，今年7月初，10年期国债收益率一度跌破1.65%，而到了8月下旬，10年期国债收益率一度逼近 1.8%。 在债市震荡的当下，不少固收基金经理的操作开始变得积极。"固收+"基金经理王鹏（化名）在接受记 者采访时表示，尽管近期债市表现低迷，但自己已经开启了加仓节奏。 "在权益市场前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the A-share market has led to a significant decline in bond funds, with many experiencing losses that have wiped out their annual gains, indicating a strong negative correlation between the stock and bond markets during this period [1][2][7]. Market Performance - Since August 4, the A-share market has seen a continuous rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly ten-year high and the total market capitalization of A-shares hitting a historical peak [1]. - As of August 20, over 600 bond funds reported negative returns for the month, with 86 funds experiencing a net loss exceeding 1% [1][7]. Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market has faced significant volatility, particularly on August 18, when 10 bond funds recorded daily losses exceeding 1%, with the highest loss reaching 1.6% [1][5]. - The yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds have been on an upward trend since August 8, with the 30-year yield rising from approximately 1.95% to over 2.1% [3]. Investor Behavior - The strong performance of the stock market has attracted many investors to shift their focus from bond funds to equities, exacerbating the stock-bond "see-saw" effect [8]. - Institutional behaviors have diverged, with funds and brokerages reducing their long-duration bond holdings, while major banks and insurance companies have increased their allocation to various durations of government bonds [8]. Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while the most severe adjustments in the bond market may have ended, full stabilization will require signals of eased liquidity or a cooling of stock market enthusiasm [9]. - Recommendations for investors include focusing on short-duration bond funds and considering "fixed income plus" funds to enhance yield and reduce risk exposure [9][10].

Group 1 - The classic all-weather strategy faces localization challenges in China, including unstable mapping between macro cycles and assets, the debate over inflation and growth parity, and limitations in the four-quadrant framework [4][8][16] - The core of the all-weather strategy is risk factor hedging, which includes hedging against growth risk with bonds and identifying key risk factors that have historically led to simultaneous declines in stocks and bonds [4][17][23] - Historical instances of simultaneous declines in stocks and bonds have been linked to three main risk factors: high inflation, liquidity tightening, and currency depreciation [23][26][29] Group 2 - A dynamic all-weather strategy based on risk factors can be constructed by either combining subjective views with quantitative models or by implementing a purely dynamic approach without subjective views [38][39] - The dynamic all-weather strategy emphasizes risk timing rather than return timing, focusing on the importance of risk factors in determining asset allocation [4][48] - The performance of the dynamic all-weather strategy has shown to be superior to traditional all-weather strategies, with annualized returns of 6.0% compared to 5.3% for the traditional approach [53]

Group 1 - The core observation is that the frequency of fund manager resignations remains high, with 1,434 products experiencing manager departures by August 12, 2023, involving 935 fund managers. This trend is expected to continue, with projections of 2,213 products and 1,114 managers resigning throughout 2024 [1][3] - Among the products with manager resignations, the largest number belongs to medium- and long-term pure bond funds, totaling 269, followed by equity mixed funds (237), flexible allocation funds (193), passive index funds (167), and bond mixed funds (110) [3] - A total of 42 fund managers have resigned from at least five products this year, with index funds and bond funds being the primary categories affected. Notable resignations include Su Yanqing and Yan Xinian from ETF management, who left 18 and 11 products respectively [3] Group 2 - The departure of prominent fund managers, particularly in fixed income and "fixed income plus" strategies, has garnered increasing attention in the industry, as these changes can directly influence institutional capital allocation [3][4] - For instance, Ma Long, a veteran in fixed income at China Merchants Fund, resigned from five products this year after over 12 years with the firm, and subsequently joined Tianhong Fund [4] - Additionally, Sun Lina, known as the "fixed income queen" at Huaan Fund, resigned from all seven products she managed due to personal reasons, which collectively accounted for 45.5% of Huaan Fund's total assets under management [4]

Report Investment Rating - The operation rating for the CITIC five-style - Cycle is ★☆☆ [4] Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending August 8, 2025, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were 1.94%, 0.03%, and -0.36% respectively. In the public fund market, index enhancement strategies led in returns with a weekly increase of 1.65%. In the equity product segment, market neutral strategies generally had more gains than losses. For bonds, convertible bond returns rebounded, but the growth of short - and medium - to long - term pure bond funds slowed compared to the previous week. Among commodity funds, energy and chemical ETFs remained weak, while precious metals saw a rebound in returns, with the net value of silver ETFs rising significantly by 3.84% [4] - In the CITIC five - style, the style index closed up last Friday, with the cycle style leading in returns, rising 3.49%. The style rotation chart showed a slight recovery in the relative strength of the financial and cycle styles, and all five styles strengthened in terms of indicator momentum. Among the public fund pools, the excess returns of consumer - style funds recovered in the past week, with a weekly excess return of 1.06%, while the average return of cycle - style funds did not outperform the benchmark. From the trend of fund style coefficients, some consumer - style funds shifted towards the growth style. Currently, the market congestion is in the historically high - congestion range [4] - In terms of Barra factors, the ALPHA factor had a better return performance in the past week, with a weekly excess return of 0.34%. The returns of the valuation and residual volatility factors weakened. In terms of win - rate, the reversal - type factors strengthened marginally, while the profitability and liquidity factors declined slightly. This week, the cross - sectional rotation speed of factors increased compared to the previous week and is currently in the historically low - quantile range [4] - According to the latest scoring results of the style timing model, the cycle and financial styles recovered this week, while the consumer style declined. The current signal favors the cycle style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was 0.77%, with an excess return of - 1.02% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fund Market Review - In the public fund market, index enhancement strategies led in returns with a weekly increase of 1.65%. Market neutral strategies in equity products generally had more gains than losses. Convertible bond returns rebounded, but the growth of short - and medium - to long - term pure bond funds slowed compared to the previous week. Energy and chemical ETFs remained weak, while precious metals saw a rebound in returns, with the net value of silver ETFs rising significantly by 3.84% [4] Equity Market Style - The CITIC five - style index closed up last Friday, with the cycle style leading in returns, rising 3.49%. The relative strength of the financial and cycle styles slightly recovered, and all five styles strengthened in terms of indicator momentum. The excess returns of consumer - style funds recovered in the past week, with a weekly excess return of 1.06%, while the average return of cycle - style funds did not outperform the benchmark. Some consumer - style funds shifted towards the growth style, and the market congestion is in the historically high - congestion range [4] Barra Factors - The ALPHA factor had a better return performance in the past week, with a weekly excess return of 0.34%. The returns of the valuation and residual volatility factors weakened. The reversal - type factors strengthened marginally, while the profitability and liquidity factors declined slightly. The cross - sectional rotation speed of factors increased compared to the previous week and is currently in the historically low - quantile range [4] Style Timing Model - The cycle and financial styles recovered this week, while the consumer style declined. The current signal favors the cycle style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was 0.77%, with an excess return of - 1.02% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [4]

Overall Summary - The report is a weekly financial engineering report on the fund market, covering market performance, style analysis, and factor performance as of August 1, 2025 [3]. Market Performance - In the week ending August 1, 2025, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were -1.14%, 0.13%, and -2.46% respectively [3]. - In the public - fund market, there was a divergence in stock - bond returns in the past week, with medium - and long - term bonds outperforming. The index weekly return was 0.14%. Passive index returns in the equity market weakened, neutral strategy products mostly rose, pure - bond strategy returns in the bond market rebounded, convertible bond returns declined, and silver and energy - chemical ETFs in the commodity market significantly corrected, while gold and soybean meal ETFs had slightly weaker returns [3]. Style Analysis 1. Zhongxin Five - Style Index - Last Friday, the style index closed down, with growth and consumption relatively stronger. The style rotation chart showed that the relative strength of each style decreased month - on - month, and the cyclical style had a large decline in the indicator momentum [3]. - In the public - fund pool, the average return of consumption - style funds in the past week did not outperform the benchmark index, while cyclical and growth - style funds had better excess performance. The style coefficients of growth and stable styles slightly increased [3]. - The growth style rose to a historically high - congestion range [3]. 2. Style Timing Model - According to the latest scoring results of the style timing model, the financial style weakened marginally this week, the stable style rebounded, and the current signal favored the consumption style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was -0.41%, and the excess return compared to the benchmark balanced allocation was 0.97% [3]. Barra Factor Performance - In the past week, the return of the residual volatility factor continued to strengthen, with a weekly excess return of 1.02%. The returns of the profitability and liquidity factors weakened. In terms of winning rate, the capital flow factor strengthened marginally, and the leverage and residual momentum factors decreased month - on - month [3]. - This week, the cross - sectional rotation speed of factors decreased marginally and was currently in a historically low - quantile range [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent capital market dynamics show a significant shift in fund flows between equity and bond markets, with a notable increase in equity market performance as the bond market experiences volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The stock market has shown resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3600 points, while the bond market has faced fluctuations, indicating a "see-saw" effect between the two [1][2]. - The bond market has seen a sharp increase in the 10-year government bond yield, rising from approximately 1.65% in mid-July to 1.75% by July 25, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment [1][2]. - Recent net liquidity operations have tightened the market, causing overnight repo rates to rise above 1.65%, leading to a significant tilt in the balance between equity and bond markets [2]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Investment Trends - There is a clear trend of funds migrating from bond markets to equities, driven by improved risk appetite and a shift in market sentiment towards sectors with higher profitability certainty, such as consumer and pharmaceutical stocks [2][5]. - The redemption signals in the bond market were triggered by a decline in net asset values of bond funds, with a cumulative drop of 15.1 basis points over three days, indicating a significant reaction from institutional investors [3]. - The demand for traditional savings products, such as savings bonds, has decreased as investors seek higher returns in the equity market, leading to a notable decline in the attractiveness of these once-popular investment vehicles [5][6]. Group 3: Institutional Behavior - Institutional investors, particularly banks and funds, have been reducing their bond holdings significantly, indicating a proactive defensive strategy in anticipation of rising interest rates [3][4]. - The current market environment has allowed institutions to accumulate floating profits, enhancing their resilience to bond market fluctuations, which has not yet resulted in negative feedback from redemptions [4]. - The trend of investors seeking higher returns has led to increased activity in the large-denomination certificate of deposit market, with many investors opting to redeem their deposits early to invest in equities [6].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has been on the rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above 3600 points on July 24, reflecting a rebound of over 16% since its year-to-date low in early April. In contrast, the bond market is experiencing significant adjustments, leading to a "stock-bond seesaw" effect driven by liquidity changes rather than traditional growth expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The stock market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3600 points, indicating a notable recovery since April [1]. - The rise in the stock market is attributed to strong performance in cyclical sectors, particularly driven by bank stocks and small-cap stocks [7]. Group 2: Bond Market Adjustments - The bond market has faced rare adjustments, with significant declines in various government bond futures, including a 0.92% drop in the 30-year bond contract [1]. - A large number of medium- and long-term pure bond funds have reported declines, with 2905 out of 3182 funds experiencing downturns during the week of July 21 to July 23 [2]. - The bond market's recent adjustments are linked to concerns over rising commodity prices and tightening short-term liquidity as the month-end approaches [2]. Group 3: Fund Redemption Trends - There has been a notable occurrence of large redemptions in bond funds, with over ten funds announcing significant redemptions to ensure net asset value accuracy [3][4]. - Despite the redemption trends, some fund managers indicate that the overall impact on the bond market is limited, as the majority of investors remain stable in their allocations [3]. Group 4: Liquidity and Market Dynamics - The current "stock-bond seesaw" is primarily driven by liquidity rather than economic growth expectations, suggesting a unique market dynamic compared to typical scenarios [6][7]. - The bond market is expected to see increased allocations from institutional investors following adjustments, indicating a potential for rebound opportunities [6][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - As of the end of Q2 2025, there were 2,405 medium - and long - term pure bond funds, accounting for 18.5% of the entire fund market. The issuance heat in Q2 recovered quarter - on - quarter. - The total assets and net assets of medium - and long - term pure bond funds with semi - annual reports disclosed at the end of Q2 2025 increased compared to the end of the previous quarter, and the average scale also recovered. - The average leverage ratio of medium - and long - term pure bond funds increased compared to the end of the previous quarter. - In Q2 2025, the single - quarter average net value growth rate of medium - and long - term pure bonds was 0.98%, and the growth rate recovered compared to the previous quarter. - In asset allocation, bonds accounted for the highest proportion in the allocation of major asset classes, and the proportion of financial bonds and corporate - issued bonds increased in the allocation of specific bond types. - The two medium - and long - term pure bond funds with the highest returns adopted short - duration and ultra - long - duration strategies respectively, both overweighted treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds, and obtained net value returns of 3.4% and 4.6% respectively in the "bullish steepening" trend in Q2 [55]. Summary by Directory 2025 Q2 Medium - and Long - Term Pure Bond Fund Basic Situation - **Issuance Quantity and Scale**: By the end of Q2 2025, there were 2,405 medium - and long - term pure bond funds, accounting for 18.5% of the entire fund market. In Q2, 105 medium - and long - term pure bond funds were issued, with an issuance share of 57 billion, an increase compared to the previous quarter but a decline compared to the same period last year [9]. - **Fund Scale**: As of the end of Q2 2025, the total assets and net assets of medium - and long - term pure bond funds with semi - annual reports disclosed were 80,150 billion yuan and 65,234 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 4,099 billion yuan and 2,890 billion yuan compared to the end of the previous quarter. The average total assets and net assets were 39 billion yuan and 31 billion yuan respectively, a recovery of 1.5 billion yuan and 1.0 billion yuan compared to the end of the previous quarter. Among the 2,078 old medium - and long - term pure bond funds that had announced their performance, 1,392 achieved positive growth in net asset scale in Q2, and the largest increase in net asset scale was Dongfang Zhenbao Pure Bond, with an increase of 12.9 billion yuan [10]. - **Average Leverage Ratio**: At the end of Q2 2025, the average leverage ratio of medium - and long - term pure bond funds under the overall - method caliber was 1.23, an increase of 0.01 compared to the end of the previous quarter. Under the average - method caliber, the average leverage ratio was 1.20, an increase of 0.02 compared to the end of the previous quarter [14]. - **Net Value Growth Rate**: In Q2 2025, the bond market yield declined from a high and then turned to volatility. The 10 - year treasury bond yield fluctuated between 1.62% - 1.81% and closed at 1.65% at the end of Q2. The economic growth in Q2 continued to be stable, with the real GDP in Q2 2025 growing by 5.2% year - on - year. The single - quarter average net value growth rate of medium - and long - term pure bonds in Q2 2025 was 0.98%, and the growth rate recovered compared to the previous quarter. Among the 2,084 funds that disclosed their performance, 2,083 had a positive net value growth rate, accounting for 99.8%, and the net value growth rate in Q2 was mainly distributed between [0,1) and [1,2), accounting for 56.8% and 40.9% respectively [16][18]. 2025 Q2 Medium - and Long - Term Pure Bond Fund Asset Allocation - **Major Asset Allocation**: As of the end of Q2 2025, the total assets of medium - and long - term pure bond funds were 80,150 billion yuan. Bonds accounted for the highest proportion of 97.7%, an increase of 0.3% compared to the previous quarter; bank deposits accounted for 1.0%, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous quarter; repurchase assets and other assets accounted for 0.9% and 0.4% of the total assets respectively, with changes of - 0.3% and 0.2% compared to the previous quarter [24]. - **Specific Bond Type Allocation**: As of the end of Q2 2025, the main bond types held by medium - and long - term pure bond funds were interest - rate bonds, financial bonds (excluding policy - financial bonds), and corporate - issued bonds, accounting for 49.6%, 22.3%, and 23.6% of the total bond assets respectively. Compared to the end of the previous quarter, the proportions of interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, and corporate - issued bonds in bond assets changed by - 0.4%, 0.3%, and 0.2% respectively. The proportions of inter - bank certificates of deposit and other bonds changed by - 0.1% and 0.1% respectively, and the proportion of asset - backed securities was basically the same as that of the previous quarter [25]. 2025 Q2 Analysis of High - Performing Funds - **Fund A with the Highest Net Value Return**: Fund A had a high concentration of top - heavy bonds and was flexible in adjustment. In Q2, it significantly reduced its allocation of ultra - long - term treasury bonds. Its net value growth rate in Q2 was 4.6%. In terms of bond - selection strategy, it still overweighted treasury bonds, accounting for about 85.3%, a reduction of about 10% compared to the previous quarter, while increasing the allocation of policy - financial bonds to 14.7%. In terms of duration strategy, its duration dropped significantly from 13.9 years to 1.6 years in Q2, seizing the structural opportunities in Q2. The concentration of its top five heavy - position bonds was high, and the duration was short. The market value of the top five heavy - position bonds in Q2 accounted for 89.8% of the total asset scale, and the first four were treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 2 years, and the fifth was a 10 - year CDB bond. Compared to the previous quarter, it significantly reduced its allocation of 30 - year treasury bonds and significantly increased its allocation of short - term treasury bonds [37][42]. - **Fund B with the Second - Highest Net Value Return**: Fund B adopted a strategy of extending duration, and the concentration of its heavy - position bonds was high. Its net value growth rate in Q2 was 3.4%. In terms of bond - type allocation strategy, it also focused on treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds, and increased its allocation of treasury bonds to 85.6% in Q2, while the allocation ratio of policy - financial bonds dropped from 33.6% to 14.4%. In terms of duration strategy, its duration extended from 16.1 years to 20.0 years in Q2. The concentration of its top five heavy - position bonds was also high and focused on long - duration interest - rate bonds. The market value of the top five heavy - position bonds in Q2 accounted for 89.1% of the total asset scale, and four of the top five were 30 - year treasury bonds, and the third was a 20 - year policy - financial bond. Compared to the previous quarter, it significantly increased its allocation of 30 - year treasury bonds and 20 - year policy - financial bonds, significantly reduced its allocation of 10 - year policy - financial bonds, and significantly extended the duration [46][48].