专题：北京公募基金高质量发展系列活动 新时代、新基金、新价值 近日，为深入贯彻落实《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》，在北京证监局的指导下，北京证券业协 会携手北京公募基金管理人、基金销售机构等多方力量，共同启动了"北京公募基金高质量发展系列活 动"。本次活动以"新时代・新基金・新价值——北京公募基金高质量发展在行动"为主题，核心目标之 一正是深化普惠金融与投资者教育保护。在此背景下，我们希望能像老朋友一样，与您聊聊如何运用这 个"新时代"的"新基金"，为我们的银发岁月规划出安稳、自在的"新价值"。 一、 银发时代的财务挑战：为何养老规划与众不同？ 与年轻时相比，退休后的财务生活有几个根本性的变化，理解这些特殊性，是做好规划的第一步： 1． 收入"断流"：工资这份主动收入停止了，我们主要依赖积蓄、社保养老金和投资产生的被动收入。 这意味着，财务规划的容错率变低了。 ◦ 储蓄、国债等：提供相对安全保障。 ◦ 货币基金、短债基金：这类公募基金波动极小，流动性好，非常适合存放短期要用的生活费和中短期 备用金，收益一般优于活期存款。 ◦ 中长期的纯债基金：主要投资于债券，风险相对可控，收益相对更优，能有效对抗通胀对现 ...

情绪偏冷，但反弹犹豫 债市情绪依然谨慎，连续第三周运行在情绪指数"偏冷"区间。与以往不同的是，过去每当情绪进入偏冷区域，市场 往往会自发出现一定的修复，而当前市场的反弹程度却比较弱。究其原因或在于制度不确定性仍压制市场，尤其是近 期备受关注的公募基金销售费用新规。由于政策尚处于征求意见阶段，市场对其最终影响的定价完成度不确定，从而 加重了观望情绪。鉴于新规的不确定性仍在发酵，本文将以史为鉴：一方面梳理自 2022 年以来数次典型赎回冲击的 关键特征；另一方面结合当前市场的利率、利差及基金净值等表现，尝试观察这一轮潜在赎回冲击所处的"进度"。 赎回冲击常见演绎路径 2022 年以来的 10 次赎回冲击。其中 2022 年出现 2 次，集中在四季度，受政策转向与理财集中赎回叠加影响，烈度最 强；2023 年仅在 8-9 月出现 1 次，主要源于资金收紧及地产政策调整；2024 年出现 4 次，3 次在 7-8 月，与央行调控 长端利率相关，但每次持续时间较短；9-10 月则与 924 一揽子政策有关。进入 2025 年，小规模的赎回冲击截至 9 月 已出现 3 次，均由权益市场强势叠加风险偏好回暖触发。 赎回冲击 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article addresses the confusion among investors regarding bond funds, which are traditionally seen as stable investments, highlighting the importance of understanding different types of bond funds and the risks associated with them [1] Group 1: Types of Bond Funds - Bond funds can be categorized into three main types based on asset allocation and investment strategy: pure bond funds, mixed bond funds, and bond index funds [2] - Pure bond funds focus entirely on bonds, making them the least risky category, suitable for conservative investors seeking stable returns [3] - Mixed bond funds combine bonds with stocks or convertible bonds to enhance yield while managing risk, with performance closely tied to stock market movements [6] - Bond index funds aim to replicate the performance of specific bond indices, offering low fees and transparency, making them suitable for long-term investors [8] Group 2: Reasons for Decline in Bond Funds - The average decline of 0.3% in bond funds during Q2 2023 can be attributed to four main risks: rising interest rates, credit risk, liquidity crises, and strategic errors [10][11] - Rising interest rates negatively impact bond prices, leading to potential declines in fund net values [11] - Credit risk arises when bond issuers default, directly affecting the net value of bond funds [11] - Liquidity issues can occur during large redemptions, forcing fund managers to sell bonds at lower prices, resulting in net value drops [11] - Strategic errors, such as investing in convertible bonds or using leverage, can amplify risks and lead to greater volatility in fund values [13][15] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to choose bond fund types based on their risk tolerance, focusing on key indicators such as duration, credit rating, and fund size [13][15] - Conservative investors should consider short-term pure bond funds or bond index funds, while more aggressive investors might explore mixed bond funds or convertible bond funds [16] - Timing investments is crucial; for instance, investing in medium to long-term pure bond funds is favorable when long-term interest rates are high [16]

Group 1 - The market anticipates the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to restart government bond trading operations, leading to a rise in the 10-year government bond yield [1][3] - The yield on the 10-year government bond increased from 1.7895% to 1.795%, reflecting market volatility [3] - The PBOC has conducted a net purchase of 1 trillion yuan in government bonds from August to December 2024, providing crucial support for market liquidity [3] Group 2 - Economic data from August showed weaker-than-expected performance, particularly in infrastructure investment, indicating ongoing issues with domestic demand [4][5] - The bond market is expected to remain under pressure due to weak institutional sentiment, despite the potential for a recovery in the future [6] - Short-term market conditions may continue to exhibit volatility, with a cautious approach recommended for bond market participation [7]

债基在经历"七零八落"后，9月以来还未有回暖迹象，短期内仍然面临大额赎回压力。 近期，德邦景颐A、格林泓远A同日公告称，均在9月10日发生大额赎回，决定提高基金净值精度，提升 至小数点后8位。 据时代周报记者统计，自7月以来已有67只基金（不同份额合计统计，下同）公告，因出现大额赎回而 提高产品的净值精度，绝大多数为债基。其中，9月以来已有6只债基发布相关公告。 产品方面，本轮出现大额赎回的债基，还包括"嘉实商业银行精选D"这类投资商业银行所发行债券的产 品，其他债基则普遍投资于国债、企业债、金融债等。据"嘉实商业银行精选D"招募说明书，其投资债 券净值占比前五名中，包括24建行债01A、24中信银行债01、23农业银行三农债。 相比之下，上述出现大额赎回的60只债基中，混合型债基占比不到10%，赎回压力较小。混合型债基有 20%的资产可用于投资可转债、新股申购，或直接投资股票，即"股债结合"。 根据Wind数据，中长期纯债指数在7月、8月均出现大滑坡，被基民调侃为"七零八落"，9月以来小幅回 调后又再次下滑，目前还处于4月中旬的水平。与之对应的是，截至目前，超1200只债基年内收益率为 负。 债市波动导致债 ...

征求意见稿针对不同持有期限设置了基金赎回费率下限：对持续持有期少于七日的投资者，收取不低于 赎回金额1.5%的赎回费；对持续持有期满七日、少于三十日的投资者，收取不低于赎回金额1%的赎回 费；对持续持有期满三十日、少于六个月的投资者，收取不低于赎回金额0.5%的赎回费。 业内人士认为，征求意见稿意在引导投资者进行长期投资，但对于部分将债券基金作为流动性管理工具 或交易工具的投资者而言，赎回成本或增加，进而压缩投资者实际的持有收益。 换言之，以短债基金为代表的高流动性产品，其投资价值恐将受到影响。中信证券首席经济学家明明认 为，短债基金的底层资产以短期债券为主。在低利率环境下，票息收益本就有限。根据征求意见稿，基 金赎回费率或上调，这将增加投资者的短期持有成本，进而削弱该类产品在流动性管理和交易工具方面 的价值。 近日，证监会就《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定（征求意见稿）》公开征求意见，拟针对不 同持有期限设置基金赎回费率下限。业内人士认为，此举或提高短期持有基金的赎回成本，进而影响短 债基金等高流动性产品的投资价值。 作为短债基金的重要机构投资者，理财公司正积极寻求应对之策。中国证券报记者从业内获悉， ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying the "line of least resistance" in the market, suggesting that the most challenging aspect is often the simplest: waiting for the right moment to act [1] - It outlines different strategies based on market conditions: buying in a bull market, selling in a bear market, and either holding cash or engaging in short-term trading during a sideways market [1] Group 2 - The central bank conducted a significant net injection of 421.7 billion yuan through reverse repos, indicating a balanced and slightly loose liquidity environment at the end of the month [3][6] - The overnight funding rates remained stable, with DR001 around 1.33% and DR007 at approximately 1.52% [4] - The bond market showed a slight decline in long-term yields, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.79% and slightly decreasing to around 1.78% [6][7] - Historical data indicates that the average annual return on government bonds from 2010 to 2023 was 4.1%, with a projected return of 9.3% for 2024, while the current year's return is only 0.3% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant adjustments, with rising yields leading to a decline in bond prices, prompting various strategies among fixed-income fund managers to navigate the current environment [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bond market has shown a "see-saw" effect with the stock market, where bond yields have increased, leading to a notable decline in the net value of medium- and long-term pure bond funds [1][2]. - As of August 25, the Wind data indicates that the index for medium- and long-term pure bond funds has decreased by 0.17% since the beginning of August, with over 120 funds experiencing a drop of more than 0.7% [2]. - The 10-year government bond yield rose from approximately 1.65% in early July to around 1.8% by late August, reflecting the market's volatility [1][2]. Group 2: Fund Manager Strategies - Some fund managers are adopting aggressive strategies, viewing the current market conditions as a buying opportunity, with expectations that the 10-year government bond yield could return to around 1.65% by year-end [2][3]. - Other managers are taking a more cautious approach, suggesting that while some bond varieties are becoming more attractive, the timing for significant investments has not yet arrived [3]. - Fund managers are focusing on adjusting their portfolios, with some opting to reduce duration and enhance liquidity in response to market conditions [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry experts maintain a cautiously optimistic view on the bond market, anticipating that macroeconomic stability will persist into 2025, particularly in the fourth quarter [4]. - The expectation is that the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a loose monetary policy, which could support the bond market and lead to a gradual decline in long-term bond yields [4]. - Long-term trends suggest that the bond market will remain strong, with a likelihood of lower yield levels as the central bank engages in measures such as purchasing government bonds and adjusting reserve requirements [4].

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced significant adjustments in August, leading to pressure on the net value of many medium- and long-term pure bond funds due to rising interest rates and fund redemptions [1][2] - Fund managers are adopting different strategies in response to the current market conditions, with some actively increasing positions, viewing current yields as a buying opportunity, while others are cautiously observing and prefer to shorten duration and enhance liquidity [1][2] - The 10-year government bond yield has fluctuated, dropping below 1.65% in early July and approaching 1.8% by late August, indicating a volatile bond market [2] Group 2 - Some fund managers believe that while the value of certain bond types is becoming more apparent, it is not yet the right time for a right-side layout, expecting short-term volatility in the bond market [3] - The outlook for the bond market remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of a low interest rate environment and continued monetary policy support, which will help maintain liquidity in the market [3] - Strategies include gradually increasing positions in long bonds when the 10-year government bond yield exceeds 1.75%, as the foundation of the bond market remains intact despite short-term disturbances from commodities and equity markets [3]

八月股市狂欢，债基黯然失色。 自8月4日以来，A股一路向上，沪指创下近十年新高，A股总市值也创下历史新高。由于股市热点轮番 上演，场外资金对权益资产配置热情高涨，叠加资金面紧张、降息预期削弱等因素，债市出现短期急 跌，长期国债收益率一路上行。 受此影响，一些债基在本月亏掉了年内赚取的全部收益。Wind数据显示，截至8月20日，本月超600只 债基收益告负，其中，有86只债基净值亏损超1%。而在债市波动最激烈的8月18日，有10只债基单日亏 损超1%，最高亏损达1.6%。 单日最多亏1.6% 你的债基最近还好吗？ "我持有的债基最近亏了不少。"一位投资者向《国际金融报》记者感慨道，他买了多只债基，没想到最 近债市跌得这么厉害。 债市近期与股市呈现出显著的"负相关性"。自8月13日以来，A股交投火热，连续7个交易日成交额突破 2万亿元，沪指近期冲上3700点后，仍在不断创下新高。与此同时，自8月7日以来，30年期国债期货连 续调整，其中，8月18日单日大跌1.33%，10年期、5年期、2年期国债期货亦全线下跌。8月21日，30年 期国债期货止跌企稳，收涨0.34%。 Wind数据显示，10年期和30年期国债到期收 ...