在业内看来，2026年宏观政策仍定调财政货币双宽，曲线陡峭化趋势不变，短期来看，债券市场这 一趋势预计仍将维持。 债市收益率震荡上行，中长期纯债基金业绩欠佳 上周（1月5日~1月11日），跨年后资金持续宽松，隔夜利率稳定在1.3%附近，债市曲线呈现先上 后下的态势，中长期纯债基金的业绩均值不及往期。 具体来看，前半周因央行购债不及预期、债基赎回及权益市场偏强，利率债各期限上行；后半周情 绪修复，债基申赎改善。全周1年期到5年期农发债收益率上行2BP，10年期农发债上行1BP；10年期国 债收益率上行3BP，30年期国债收益率上行4BP。 从基金的收益来看，Wind统计显示，中长期纯债基金的业绩均值在上周录得-0.006%。而此前，纯 债基金已经多个单周未出现业绩均值为负的情形。头部业绩产品当中，蜂巢丰瑞A录得0.57%周涨幅， 还有2只基金单周业绩超过0.3%。 相比来看，短债基金头部业绩产品的业绩不太理想，但总体保持着业绩收正的态势。Wind统计显 示，红土创新丰泽中短债A录得单周业绩0.17%，是所有短债基金中业绩最好的一只。整体来看，短债 基金的业绩均值在上周录得0.03%。 分析上周的债市表现，有市场 ...

2025年，国内债市跌宕起伏，利率处在长期下行趋势当中，但投资债券的收益却不见得好。从债券基金来看，纯债基金告别往日的稳赚不赔，开始大量出现 年收益为负的产品，而久期策略的不同也是导致不同产品间差异较大的因素。从全年来看，中长期债基年收益上限明显高于短债基金，而中长期债券的供应 难度或也是市场面临的关键难题。 中长期债基年收益上限明显高于短债基金 从2025年开始，债市出现许多特殊情形，主要体现为与过往市场经验有所不同。一方面，在利率长期下行趋势下没有展现出债券的吸引力；另一方面，即便 股市震荡调整，债市也缺乏对避险资金的吸引力。 一个明显的特征是，2025年想在债市"躺赢"很难，市场对投资债券的公募基金提出了更高要求。从年内的收益率排名来看，的确也与往年有大的不同，至少 从平均的收益水平来看，已经告别了4%的债基投资时代。 Wind统计显示，纯债基金当中，2025年内的中长期纯债基金业绩均值为1.02%，短债基金则为1.49%。尽管固收类的产品与货币政策的调整有很大的关系， 但长期以来，债基的配置灵活性多样，在不少低利率年代，类似的年度业绩均值也比较少见。 从宏观与政策背景来看，2025年经济修复节奏偏缓， ...

值得注意的是，ETF的分红总规模占比持续提升，已接近两成，成为分红市场的重要力量。不过，从分 红结构观察，ETF并非分红次数最多的品种。数据显示，在分红次数方面，中长期纯债基金占据绝对优 势，是全年分红"最勤快"的基金类型。 【环球网财经综合报道】2025年公募基金分红工作画上句号，全年分红格局轮廓清晰。据Wind数据统 计，以红利发放日为口径，2025年全年公募基金分红总额接近2500亿元，继续保持较高水平。值得注意 的是，在整体分红格局中，宽基ETF频现大额分红，成为年度分红市场的一大亮点。 从产品结构观察，基金分红呈现出多元化的特点。债券型基金仍然是公募分红的主力军，在分红总金额 和分红次数上均占据较高比重，全年分红金额占比约七成。与此同时，ETF尤其是头部宽基ETF在单只 产品、单笔分红金额上的表现愈发突出，为投资者派送了实实在在的"红包"。 数据显示，2025年四季度以来，部分头部产品集中实施较大规模分红，引发市场广泛关注。其中，华夏 上证50ETF单笔分红金额达到45.73亿元，嘉实沪深300ETF为29.59亿元，易方达沪深300ETF为15.93亿 元，在同类产品中处于较高水平。 从全年情况看 ...

Group 1 - The total dividend distribution of public funds in 2025 approached 250 billion yuan, with a clear pattern emerging throughout the year [1][2] - Bond funds were the main contributors to public fund dividends, accounting for a significant proportion of both total dividend amount and frequency [1][3] - Large-scale dividends were concentrated among a few major ETFs, with notable single dividend amounts from products like Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and others [2][3] Group 2 - The number of dividend distributions was highest among medium- and long-term pure bond funds, while bond funds dominated in total dividend amounts, making up about 70% of the total [3] - The ETF market has rapidly expanded, establishing a foundation for sustained growth in dividend distribution, with ETFs becoming important investment tools [4] - The improvement of the public fund dividend mechanism has increased the importance of dividends in fund operations, enhancing investor experience and product attractiveness [4][5]

回顾去年，公募基金分红规模保持在较高水平，全年分红格局逐步清晰。 Wind数据显示，以红利发放日为统计口径，全年公募基金分红总额接近2500亿元。从产品 层面观察，基金分红并非由某一类型产品单独"包揽"，而是在分红规模、分红频率以及单笔 分红体量等不同维度上呈现出各自侧重。 从全年整体情况看，债券型基金仍是公募分红的主要贡献者，在分红总金额和分红次数上均 占据较高比重；与此同时，ETF尤其是头部宽基ETF在单只产品、单笔分红金额上的表现愈发 突出，成为分红结构中的一大亮点。 头部宽基ETF持续派发大额"红包" 从全年情况看，大额分红主要集中在少数规模较大的ETF产品。2025年以来，共有14只基金 实施过单笔分红金额超过10亿元的分红方案，其中华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF的单笔分红规模超 过80亿元。整体来看，无论是单笔分红规模还是全年累计分红规模，分红规模靠前的基金几 乎清一色为ETF，且以沪深300等核心宽基ETF为主。 整体来看，以红利发放日为统计口径，Wind数据显示，全年公募基金分红总额接近2500亿 元。其中，ETF的分红总规模占比持续提升，已接近两成，成为分红市场的重要力量。 不过，从分红结构观察， ...

回顾去年，公募基金分红规模保持在较高水平，全年分红格局逐步清晰。 Wind数据显示，以红利发放日为统计口径，全年公募基金分红总额接近2500亿元。从产品层面观察，基金分 红并非由某一类型产品单独"包揽"，而是在分红规模、分红频率以及单笔分红体量等不同维度上呈现出各自侧 重。 从全年整体情况看，债券型基金仍是公募分红的主要贡献者，在分红总金额和分红次数上均占据较高比重；与 此同时，ETF尤其是头部宽基ETF在单只产品、单笔分红金额上的表现愈发突出，成为分红结构中的一大亮 点。 头部宽基ETF持续派发大额"红包" 进入2025年四季度，部分头部产品集中实施较大规模分红，成为市场关注的焦点。数据显示，四季度以来，华 夏上证50ETF、嘉实沪深300ETF、易方达沪深300ETF等多只宽基ETF相继实施较大规模分红，单笔分红金额 分别达到45.73亿元、29.59亿元和15.93亿元，在同类产品中处于较高水平。 从全年情况看，大额分红主要集中在少数规模较大的ETF产品。2025年以来，共有14只基金实施过单笔分红金 额超过10亿元的分红方案，其中华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF的单笔分红规模超过80亿元。整体来看，无论是单笔 ...

Core Insights - The report discusses the increasing attention on the "negative duration" strategy in the bond market, particularly in the context of a bearish market trend observed in the second half of the year, where most pure bond funds experienced significant net value declines, while some managed to rise against the trend [5][6][19]. - The report highlights that executing a negative duration strategy can yield positive returns even during periods of rising bond yields, contrasting with traditional long-duration strategies that are prone to losses in a declining market [6][19]. Market Trends - The bond market has shown a clear bearish trend in the second half of the year, characterized by multiple consecutive declines, with the 30-year active treasury futures price dropping from 121 to 114, reflecting a yield increase of nearly 40 basis points [5][13]. - The report notes that the market downturn is not merely a fluctuation but exhibits distinct characteristics of a bear market, influenced by factors such as the "stock-bond seesaw" effect and "anti-involution" policies [5][16]. Strategy Implementation - The negative duration strategy is being executed by brokerage proprietary trading desks, which establish short positions in treasury futures while simultaneously borrowing and selling long-term treasury bonds to capitalize on the price declines during rising interest rates [6][19]. - The report indicates a notable increase in the borrowing balance of 30-year treasury bonds by brokerage firms since mid-November, reflecting the implementation of short-selling strategies [20][21]. Fund Performance - Some public funds have successfully utilized treasury futures to implement a temporary negative duration strategy, resulting in net value increases during a period of rising interest rates, while other similar funds saw significant declines [7][22]. - The report emphasizes that public funds are allowed to participate in treasury futures trading, albeit with restrictions on position sizes and trading volumes, which provides a regulatory framework for executing negative duration strategies [22]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the focus on negative duration strategies may increase in a low-interest-rate environment characterized by heightened market volatility, with expectations of wide fluctuations in long-term treasury yields, specifically forecasting the 10-year yield to oscillate between 1.8% and 1.9%, and the 30-year yield between 2.2% and 2.4% [27].

点击 "简七读财" ，发送消息" 理财 " 小白轻松入门~ 晚上好，我是简七~ 最近，有小伙伴来问：不是说纯债基金很稳吗？怎么也会「跳水」呢？ 我看了看，她说的这只债基，一周跌了6%，净值打回两年前，相当于投资两年白干了。 图源：天天基金 今天，我们就从这次「暴雷」说起，聊聊债基到底是怎么回事，以及我们该怎么挑、怎么买。 *风险提示：本文所提及的基金，仅为示例参考，不构成任何投资建议。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。请务必将决策权，牢牢握在自己手中~ 01 这次雷，到底是怎么回事？ 纯债基金，就是基金经理拿我们的钱，买几十、上百只债券。 那什么是债券呢？本质上TA是「欠条」： 买国债，就是把钱借给国家；买企业债，就是把钱借给企业。到期了，对方连本带息还给你。 听起来很稳，对吧？ 首先，我们要相信概率和常识。 咱们买债基，买的是几十、上百只债券。 哪怕真遇到一个还不上钱的公司，因为分散了，对整体的影响通常也是可控的。像这次跌幅这么大的，属于比较极端的个例。 另外，咱们债基也别认准某一支，把「求稳」的钱也再分散到不同产品中。 确实，在大多数情况下，借钱的一方都会按时还钱。所以债基给人的印象一直是「稳稳的幸福」。 但是，万 ...

Group 1 - The duration of medium to long-term pure bond funds has increased, while short-term bond funds have decreased. The median duration for all medium to long-term pure bond funds reached 2.58 years, up 0.08 years week-on-week, placing it at the 80.40th percentile over the past three years [1][4][7] - The median duration for medium to long-term interest rate bond funds reached 3.69 years, increasing by 0.12 years week-on-week, and is at the 84.50th percentile over the past three years [1][7][8] - The median duration for short-term pure bond funds decreased to 0.95 years, down 0.02 years week-on-week, and is at the 83.50th percentile over the past three years [1][7][12] Group 2 - The turnover rate for interest rate bonds has decreased, while the turnover rate for credit bonds has increased. The turnover rate for 10-year and above government bonds decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 1.92%, placing it at the 49.6th percentile over the past three years [1][14][18] - The turnover rate for 5-7 year medium-term notes increased by 0.03 percentage points to 1.23%, at the 28.7th percentile over the past three years [1][14][18] - Local government bonds in Qingdao, Jiangxi, and Jiangsu have shown higher turnover rates, with valuation spreads of 13.81 bps, 10.93 bps, and 11.36 bps respectively [1][21][22] Group 3 - The leverage ratio in the interbank bond market has increased by 0.12 percentage points to 107.17%. The leverage ratio for insurance companies rose by 0.12 percentage points to 128.87%, while the leverage ratio for banks increased by 0.03 percentage points to 102.66% [1][23][28] - The leverage ratio for securities companies decreased by 0.94 percentage points to 224.13%, and the broad fund leverage ratio increased by 0.42 percentage points to 111.89% [1][23][31] Group 4 - The total market's existing wealth management scale increased by 30.252 billion yuan week-on-week, consistent with seasonal levels, while the net value breaking rate slightly decreased [1][29][30] - The scale of fixed-income wealth management products saw significant growth, while other investment types experienced minor fluctuations [1][33][34] - The performance comparison benchmarks for wealth management products showed a decline for 1 month (inclusive) and 1-3 years (inclusive), while remaining stable for 6 months-1 year (inclusive) and over 3 years [1][39][40]

Group 1 - The duration of medium to long-term pure bond funds has increased, while short-term bond funds have decreased. The median duration of all medium to long-term pure bond funds reached 2.58 years, up 0.08 years week-on-week, placing it at the 80.40th percentile over the past three years [1][9][18] - The median duration of short-term pure bond funds decreased to 0.95 years, down 0.02 years week-on-week, which is at the 83.50th percentile over the past three years [1][9][18] - The median duration of medium to long-term interest rate bond funds reached 3.69 years, up 0.12 years week-on-week, at the 84.50th percentile, while the standard deviation increased to 2.72, at the 97.10th percentile [1][9][18] Group 2 - The turnover rate of interest rate bonds has decreased, while the turnover rate of credit bonds has increased. The turnover rate of 10-year and above government bonds decreased to 1.92%, at the 49.6th percentile over the past three years [1][9][18] - The turnover rate of 5-7 year medium-term notes increased to 1.23%, at the 28.7th percentile [1][9][18] - Local government bonds in Qingdao, Jiangxi, and Jiangsu have high turnover rates, with valuation spreads of 13.81 bps, 10.93 bps, and 11.36 bps respectively [1][9][18] Group 3 - The leverage ratio in the interbank bond market increased by 0.12 percentage points to 107.17%. The leverage ratio for insurance companies rose by 0.12 percentage points to 128.87%, while the leverage ratio for banks increased by 0.03 percentage points to 102.66% [1][9][18] - The leverage ratio for securities companies decreased by 0.94 percentage points to 224.13%, and the leverage ratio for broad-based funds increased by 0.42 percentage points to 111.89% [1][9][18] Group 4 - The total scale of wealth management products in the market increased by 30.25 billion yuan week-on-week, consistent with seasonal levels, while the net value of wealth management products remained stable at 0.73% [1][9][18] - The scale of fixed-income wealth management products saw significant growth, while other investment types experienced slight changes [1][9][18] - The performance comparison benchmarks for wealth management products showed a decline for those with a duration of one month or less and one to three years, while others remained stable or increased [1][9][18]