2025年，国内债市跌宕起伏，利率处在长期下行趋势当中，但投资债券的收益却不见得好。从债券基金来看，纯债基金告别往日的稳赚不赔，开始大量出现 年收益为负的产品，而久期策略的不同也是导致不同产品间差异较大的因素。从全年来看，中长期债基年收益上限明显高于短债基金，而中长期债券的供应 难度或也是市场面临的关键难题。 中长期债基年收益上限明显高于短债基金 从2025年开始，债市出现许多特殊情形，主要体现为与过往市场经验有所不同。一方面，在利率长期下行趋势下没有展现出债券的吸引力；另一方面，即便 股市震荡调整，债市也缺乏对避险资金的吸引力。 一个明显的特征是，2025年想在债市"躺赢"很难，市场对投资债券的公募基金提出了更高要求。从年内的收益率排名来看，的确也与往年有大的不同，至少 从平均的收益水平来看，已经告别了4%的债基投资时代。 Wind统计显示，纯债基金当中，2025年内的中长期纯债基金业绩均值为1.02%，短债基金则为1.49%。尽管固收类的产品与货币政策的调整有很大的关系， 但长期以来，债基的配置灵活性多样，在不少低利率年代，类似的年度业绩均值也比较少见。 从宏观与政策背景来看，2025年经济修复节奏偏缓， ...

值得注意的是，ETF的分红总规模占比持续提升，已接近两成，成为分红市场的重要力量。不过，从分 红结构观察，ETF并非分红次数最多的品种。数据显示，在分红次数方面，中长期纯债基金占据绝对优 势，是全年分红"最勤快"的基金类型。 【环球网财经综合报道】2025年公募基金分红工作画上句号，全年分红格局轮廓清晰。据Wind数据统 计，以红利发放日为口径，2025年全年公募基金分红总额接近2500亿元，继续保持较高水平。值得注意 的是，在整体分红格局中，宽基ETF频现大额分红，成为年度分红市场的一大亮点。 从产品结构观察，基金分红呈现出多元化的特点。债券型基金仍然是公募分红的主力军，在分红总金额 和分红次数上均占据较高比重，全年分红金额占比约七成。与此同时，ETF尤其是头部宽基ETF在单只 产品、单笔分红金额上的表现愈发突出，为投资者派送了实实在在的"红包"。 数据显示，2025年四季度以来，部分头部产品集中实施较大规模分红，引发市场广泛关注。其中，华夏 上证50ETF单笔分红金额达到45.73亿元，嘉实沪深300ETF为29.59亿元，易方达沪深300ETF为15.93亿 元，在同类产品中处于较高水平。 从全年情况看 ...

头部宽基ETF持续派发大额"红包" 回顾去年，公募基金分红规模保持在较高水平，全年分红格局逐步清晰。 Wind数据显示，以红利发放日为统计口径，全年公募基金分红总额接近2500亿元。从产品层面观察， 基金分红并非由某一类型产品单独"包揽"，而是在分红规模、分红频率以及单笔分红体量等不同维度上 呈现出各自侧重。 从全年整体情况看，债券型基金仍是公募分红的主要贡献者，在分红总金额和分红次数上均占据较高比 重；与此同时，ETF尤其是头部宽基ETF在单只产品、单笔分红金额上的表现愈发突出，成为分红结构 中的一大亮点。 该人士进一步指出，伴随ETF体系不断成熟，公募基金分红机制也在持续完善，分红在基金运作中的重 要性明显提升。近年来，基金公司在产品管理中更加重视分红安排，将其作为提升持有人体验、增强产 品吸引力的重要方式之一。 从市场层面看，分红不仅是对投资者的现金回馈，也有助于稳定持有人预期、改善持有体验。尤其在市 场波动加大的环境下，合理分红有助于平滑净值波动，增强投资者长期持有意愿。在利率中枢下行、长 期资金入市节奏加快的背景下，具备稳定分红能力的ETF产品，更容易获得中长期资金的青睐。 进入2025年四季度，部 ...

回顾去年，公募基金分红规模保持在较高水平，全年分红格局逐步清晰。 Wind数据显示，以红利发放日为统计口径，全年公募基金分红总额接近2500亿元。从产品 层面观察，基金分红并非由某一类型产品单独"包揽"，而是在分红规模、分红频率以及单笔 分红体量等不同维度上呈现出各自侧重。 从全年整体情况看，债券型基金仍是公募分红的主要贡献者，在分红总金额和分红次数上均 占据较高比重；与此同时，ETF尤其是头部宽基ETF在单只产品、单笔分红金额上的表现愈发 突出，成为分红结构中的一大亮点。 头部宽基ETF持续派发大额"红包" 从全年情况看，大额分红主要集中在少数规模较大的ETF产品。2025年以来，共有14只基金 实施过单笔分红金额超过10亿元的分红方案，其中华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF的单笔分红规模超 过80亿元。整体来看，无论是单笔分红规模还是全年累计分红规模，分红规模靠前的基金几 乎清一色为ETF，且以沪深300等核心宽基ETF为主。 整体来看，以红利发放日为统计口径，Wind数据显示，全年公募基金分红总额接近2500亿 元。其中，ETF的分红总规模占比持续提升，已接近两成，成为分红市场的重要力量。 不过，从分红结构观察， ...

回顾去年，公募基金分红规模保持在较高水平，全年分红格局逐步清晰。 Wind数据显示，以红利发放日为统计口径，全年公募基金分红总额接近2500亿元。从产品层面观察，基金分 红并非由某一类型产品单独"包揽"，而是在分红规模、分红频率以及单笔分红体量等不同维度上呈现出各自侧 重。 从全年整体情况看，债券型基金仍是公募分红的主要贡献者，在分红总金额和分红次数上均占据较高比重；与 此同时，ETF尤其是头部宽基ETF在单只产品、单笔分红金额上的表现愈发突出，成为分红结构中的一大亮 点。 头部宽基ETF持续派发大额"红包" 进入2025年四季度，部分头部产品集中实施较大规模分红，成为市场关注的焦点。数据显示，四季度以来，华 夏上证50ETF、嘉实沪深300ETF、易方达沪深300ETF等多只宽基ETF相继实施较大规模分红，单笔分红金额 分别达到45.73亿元、29.59亿元和15.93亿元，在同类产品中处于较高水平。 从全年情况看，大额分红主要集中在少数规模较大的ETF产品。2025年以来，共有14只基金实施过单笔分红金 额超过10亿元的分红方案，其中华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF的单笔分红规模超过80亿元。整体来看，无论是单笔 ...

Core Insights - The report discusses the increasing attention on the "negative duration" strategy in the bond market, particularly in the context of a bearish market trend observed in the second half of the year, where most pure bond funds experienced significant net value declines, while some managed to rise against the trend [5][6][19]. - The report highlights that executing a negative duration strategy can yield positive returns even during periods of rising bond yields, contrasting with traditional long-duration strategies that are prone to losses in a declining market [6][19]. Market Trends - The bond market has shown a clear bearish trend in the second half of the year, characterized by multiple consecutive declines, with the 30-year active treasury futures price dropping from 121 to 114, reflecting a yield increase of nearly 40 basis points [5][13]. - The report notes that the market downturn is not merely a fluctuation but exhibits distinct characteristics of a bear market, influenced by factors such as the "stock-bond seesaw" effect and "anti-involution" policies [5][16]. Strategy Implementation - The negative duration strategy is being executed by brokerage proprietary trading desks, which establish short positions in treasury futures while simultaneously borrowing and selling long-term treasury bonds to capitalize on the price declines during rising interest rates [6][19]. - The report indicates a notable increase in the borrowing balance of 30-year treasury bonds by brokerage firms since mid-November, reflecting the implementation of short-selling strategies [20][21]. Fund Performance - Some public funds have successfully utilized treasury futures to implement a temporary negative duration strategy, resulting in net value increases during a period of rising interest rates, while other similar funds saw significant declines [7][22]. - The report emphasizes that public funds are allowed to participate in treasury futures trading, albeit with restrictions on position sizes and trading volumes, which provides a regulatory framework for executing negative duration strategies [22]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the focus on negative duration strategies may increase in a low-interest-rate environment characterized by heightened market volatility, with expectations of wide fluctuations in long-term treasury yields, specifically forecasting the 10-year yield to oscillate between 1.8% and 1.9%, and the 30-year yield between 2.2% and 2.4% [27].

点击 "简七读财" ，发送消息" 理财 " 小白轻松入门~ 晚上好，我是简七~ 最近，有小伙伴来问：不是说纯债基金很稳吗？怎么也会「跳水」呢？ 我看了看，她说的这只债基，一周跌了6%，净值打回两年前，相当于投资两年白干了。 图源：天天基金 今天，我们就从这次「暴雷」说起，聊聊债基到底是怎么回事，以及我们该怎么挑、怎么买。 *风险提示：本文所提及的基金，仅为示例参考，不构成任何投资建议。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。请务必将决策权，牢牢握在自己手中~ 01 这次雷，到底是怎么回事？ 纯债基金，就是基金经理拿我们的钱，买几十、上百只债券。 那什么是债券呢？本质上TA是「欠条」： 买国债，就是把钱借给国家；买企业债，就是把钱借给企业。到期了，对方连本带息还给你。 听起来很稳，对吧？ 首先，我们要相信概率和常识。 咱们买债基，买的是几十、上百只债券。 哪怕真遇到一个还不上钱的公司，因为分散了，对整体的影响通常也是可控的。像这次跌幅这么大的，属于比较极端的个例。 另外，咱们债基也别认准某一支，把「求稳」的钱也再分散到不同产品中。 确实，在大多数情况下，借钱的一方都会按时还钱。所以债基给人的印象一直是「稳稳的幸福」。 但是，万 ...

Group 1 - The duration of medium to long-term pure bond funds has increased, while short-term bond funds have decreased. The median duration for all medium to long-term pure bond funds reached 2.58 years, up 0.08 years week-on-week, placing it at the 80.40th percentile over the past three years [1][4][7] - The median duration for medium to long-term interest rate bond funds reached 3.69 years, increasing by 0.12 years week-on-week, and is at the 84.50th percentile over the past three years [1][7][8] - The median duration for short-term pure bond funds decreased to 0.95 years, down 0.02 years week-on-week, and is at the 83.50th percentile over the past three years [1][7][12] Group 2 - The turnover rate for interest rate bonds has decreased, while the turnover rate for credit bonds has increased. The turnover rate for 10-year and above government bonds decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 1.92%, placing it at the 49.6th percentile over the past three years [1][14][18] - The turnover rate for 5-7 year medium-term notes increased by 0.03 percentage points to 1.23%, at the 28.7th percentile over the past three years [1][14][18] - Local government bonds in Qingdao, Jiangxi, and Jiangsu have shown higher turnover rates, with valuation spreads of 13.81 bps, 10.93 bps, and 11.36 bps respectively [1][21][22] Group 3 - The leverage ratio in the interbank bond market has increased by 0.12 percentage points to 107.17%. The leverage ratio for insurance companies rose by 0.12 percentage points to 128.87%, while the leverage ratio for banks increased by 0.03 percentage points to 102.66% [1][23][28] - The leverage ratio for securities companies decreased by 0.94 percentage points to 224.13%, and the broad fund leverage ratio increased by 0.42 percentage points to 111.89% [1][23][31] Group 4 - The total market's existing wealth management scale increased by 30.252 billion yuan week-on-week, consistent with seasonal levels, while the net value breaking rate slightly decreased [1][29][30] - The scale of fixed-income wealth management products saw significant growth, while other investment types experienced minor fluctuations [1][33][34] - The performance comparison benchmarks for wealth management products showed a decline for 1 month (inclusive) and 1-3 years (inclusive), while remaining stable for 6 months-1 year (inclusive) and over 3 years [1][39][40]

Group 1 - The duration of medium to long-term pure bond funds has increased, while short-term bond funds have decreased. The median duration of all medium to long-term pure bond funds reached 2.58 years, up 0.08 years week-on-week, placing it at the 80.40th percentile over the past three years [1][9][18] - The median duration of short-term pure bond funds decreased to 0.95 years, down 0.02 years week-on-week, which is at the 83.50th percentile over the past three years [1][9][18] - The median duration of medium to long-term interest rate bond funds reached 3.69 years, up 0.12 years week-on-week, at the 84.50th percentile, while the standard deviation increased to 2.72, at the 97.10th percentile [1][9][18] Group 2 - The turnover rate of interest rate bonds has decreased, while the turnover rate of credit bonds has increased. The turnover rate of 10-year and above government bonds decreased to 1.92%, at the 49.6th percentile over the past three years [1][9][18] - The turnover rate of 5-7 year medium-term notes increased to 1.23%, at the 28.7th percentile [1][9][18] - Local government bonds in Qingdao, Jiangxi, and Jiangsu have high turnover rates, with valuation spreads of 13.81 bps, 10.93 bps, and 11.36 bps respectively [1][9][18] Group 3 - The leverage ratio in the interbank bond market increased by 0.12 percentage points to 107.17%. The leverage ratio for insurance companies rose by 0.12 percentage points to 128.87%, while the leverage ratio for banks increased by 0.03 percentage points to 102.66% [1][9][18] - The leverage ratio for securities companies decreased by 0.94 percentage points to 224.13%, and the leverage ratio for broad-based funds increased by 0.42 percentage points to 111.89% [1][9][18] Group 4 - The total scale of wealth management products in the market increased by 30.25 billion yuan week-on-week, consistent with seasonal levels, while the net value of wealth management products remained stable at 0.73% [1][9][18] - The scale of fixed-income wealth management products saw significant growth, while other investment types experienced slight changes [1][9][18] - The performance comparison benchmarks for wealth management products showed a decline for those with a duration of one month or less and one to three years, while others remained stable or increased [1][9][18]

Core Viewpoint - The "stock-bond seesaw" phenomenon is expected to continue in the near term, with no signs of improvement in the bond market as it remains under pressure from liquidity challenges and investor sentiment [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bond market has faced significant liquidity tests, with net redemptions of over 5.5 billion units in bond funds during the third quarter, indicating a severe outflow from this asset class [1][2]. - The A-share market has been strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around the 4000-point mark, contrasting sharply with the bond market, where bearish sentiment prevails [2][3]. - Nearly 60% of the 7300 bond fund products experienced net redemptions, with pure bond funds, especially medium to long-term ones, suffering the most [2][3]. Group 2: Redemption Trends - The trend of redemptions has continued into the fourth quarter, with at least 35 bond funds reporting significant outflows since October [3]. - Major bond funds have seen substantial reductions in scale, with some funds losing nearly half of their assets due to redemptions and poor performance [2][3]. - Specific examples include the Huaxia Dingmao fund, which was redeemed by nearly 13.1 billion units in a single quarter, and other funds like Xingye Tianli and Xingye Tianying also facing significant outflows [2][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The bond market is currently waiting for clear signals from fiscal and monetary policies, which are expected to dictate future trends [5][7]. - The potential impact of public fund fee reforms is being closely monitored, as changes could affect liquidity management and institutional investment preferences [6][7]. - Long-term interest rates may have more room to rise, supported by expected fiscal stimulus and improving inflation expectations, despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [7].