Group 1: Market Overview - The blockchain prediction market is attracting significant capital, with Polymarket's valuation soaring to $10 billion from $1 billion in June, marking a nearly tenfold increase [1][2] - Kalshi is also experiencing growth, with its post-financing valuation expected to reach $5 billion, up from $2 billion three months ago [1] - The surge in trading volume for event contracts related to various events, including Federal Reserve decisions and sports, indicates a shift from niche to mainstream [1] Group 2: Polymarket Developments - Polymarket's return to the U.S. market is facilitated by regulatory approvals, including a no-action letter from the CFTC, allowing it to operate without certain federal reporting requirements [2][4] - The platform's monthly trading volume reached $1 billion in August, more than double the volume from the previous year [4] - Polymarket has secured over $200 million in funding led by Founders Fund, with notable strategic investments from Donald Trump, Jr.'s venture capital firm [4] Group 3: Kalshi's Position - Kalshi has positioned itself as a compliant platform within the U.S. regulatory framework, which has attracted investor interest and partnerships with mainstream platforms [5] - The platform raised $185 million in June, increasing its valuation to $2 billion, partly due to a favorable court ruling allowing it to offer political event contracts [5][6] - Kalshi's trading volume reached $875 million in August, bolstered by a partnership with Robinhood to offer prediction contracts for NFL and college football events [6] Group 4: Market Drivers - The upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election has significantly increased activity on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with Polymarket gaining recognition for accurately predicting Trump's victory [7] - The NFL season has also driven substantial trading volume, with Kalshi processing $441 million in transactions during the first week, highlighting the expanding application of blockchain prediction markets [8]

Robinhood(HOOD.O)："事件合约"(Event contracts)将会非常重要，美国大选事件合约在一周内拥有80万 个账户和五亿份合约。 ...