Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The court issued a preliminary injunction to temporarily block Trump from removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook from office. This decision further solidifies the baseline expectation of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September, marginally reduces the possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut, and slightly lowers the probability of three cumulative rate cuts within the year. The decision has limited ability to drive long - term interest rates significantly lower, and the marginal slowdown of rate cuts drags on risk sentiment [4]. - The case is still in litigation, and subsequent uncertainties remain. The market should not over - price it as a settled matter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Points Legal Reasoning - The court tends to adopt a narrow interpretation of "For Cause" in the Federal Reserve Act, which should focus on an official's on - the - job performance rather than pre - appointment private matters. Trump's dismissal reason targeting Cook's pre - appointment mortgage statement dispute does not constitute "For Cause" [3]. - There is a lack of due process. The Fed governor's position is a "property interest" protected by due process. Trump did not provide prior notice, clear evidence, or a meaningful opportunity for defense, which fails to meet the minimum requirements [3]. Impact on the Market - The injunction allows Cook to participate in next week's FOMC meeting, strengthening the 25 - basis - point rate cut expectation in September, marginally reducing the possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut, and slightly lowering the probability of three cumulative rate cuts within the year. The decision alone has limited ability to drive long - term interest rates significantly lower [4]. - For risk assets, the marginal slowdown of rate cuts under the current recession - inclined narrative has a certain negative impact on risk sentiment [4]. Litigation Progress - The case is still in the litigation process. The background that the judge was appointed by Biden may lead to a more politically - charged public interpretation, and subsequent uncertainties remain [5]. - In a similar case, the Federal Trade Commission's Slaughter was allowed to return to work after a favorable ruling but was then blocked by the Supreme Court's temporary stay order, indicating the complexity of the case's development [5].