Core Viewpoint - The potential extension of Jerome Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chairman could stabilize market expectations amid ongoing legal investigations and political pressures [2][3][4]. Group 1: Powell's Position and Legal Context - Powell's attorney has indicated that he may remain on the Federal Reserve Board until January 2028 if the criminal investigation against him continues [2][3]. - The investigation stems from a hearing regarding a $2.5 billion budget overrun for the Federal Reserve's Washington headquarters, which has raised questions about potential fraud and false statements to Congress [5][6]. - A federal judge recently dismissed a subpoena against Powell, citing a lack of evidence and suggesting that the subpoenas were issued to pressure him into supporting interest rate cuts or resigning [7]. Group 2: Political Implications - The confirmation process for Kevin Warsh, Trump's nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chairman, may face delays due to the ongoing investigation into Powell [2][7]. - Key Republican Senator Thom Tillis has vowed to block Warsh's nomination until the investigation is resolved, indicating a significant political hurdle [2][7]. - The White House is reportedly working closely with Congress to expedite Warsh's confirmation to restore confidence in the Federal Reserve [8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Expectations - Analysts suggest that Powell's potential continued presence could help stabilize market expectations, especially during a critical period leading up to midterm elections [3][4]. - The upcoming "Super Central Bank Week" is expected to bring significant announcements from various central banks, with the market anticipating that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates [2].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing political and judicial disputes surrounding the potential replacement of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell are creating uncertainty regarding the leadership transition at the Fed, particularly affecting the confirmation process of Kevin Warsh as the new chairman [3][4]. Investigation Controversy - The U.S. Department of Justice plans to appeal a ruling that dismissed a grand jury subpoena against Powell, which could delay Warsh's confirmation in the Senate [6][8]. - A federal judge ruled that there was insufficient evidence for the investigation into Powell, which relates to the Fed's headquarters renovation and Powell's public statements [6]. - Critics argue that the investigation undermines the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially given the political context of former President Trump's criticisms of the Fed's interest rate policies [6][9]. Warsh's Confirmation Delay - Senator Thom Tillis stated he would not support any new Fed chairman nominations until the investigation into Powell concludes, indicating that Warsh's confirmation process may be postponed [8][9]. - If the Senate does not confirm Warsh by Powell's term end on May 15, Powell may continue to lead the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting scheduled for June 16-17 [10]. Policy Outlook Variables - Rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions are impacting global financial markets and could influence inflation and economic growth, adding complexity to future monetary policy decisions [11]. - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with projections indicating a cumulative cut of slightly less than 25 basis points by December, down from earlier expectations of about two cuts [13]. - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on March 18 is anticipated to provide insights into the Fed's assessment of geopolitical impacts on monetary policy, especially in light of recent employment data showing a decrease in non-farm payrolls [12][13][14].

Group 1 - A federal judge has blocked the justice department from serving subpoenas to Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, indicating that the investigation is perceived as a threat to the Fed's independence and an attempt to pressure Powell to lower interest rates [1][2] - The judge noted that there is a "mountain of evidence" suggesting the investigation is pretextual, with the government providing essentially no evidence of wrongdoing by Powell [2] - Republican Senator Tom Tillis expressed that the Trump administration's appeal regarding Powell's case will delay the confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, highlighting opposition among some Republicans to the investigation [3] Group 2 - Donald Trump has increasingly criticized Powell, whom he appointed in 2018, labeling him as "stupid" and "too slow" for not reducing interest rates [4] - Trump previously accused Powell of "fraud" related to budget overruns on renovations at the Fed headquarters, which Powell has denied, calling the investigation a means to pressure the Fed [5] - While Warsh may align with Trump's agenda for lower interest rates, Powell's term ends in May, and it remains uncertain if he will continue on the Federal Open Market Committee [6] Group 3 - The Supreme Court is set to rule on a case involving Fed governor Lisa Cook, who was allegedly targeted by Trump after he attempted to fire her, raising concerns about presidential power over the Fed [7] - Cook has denied allegations of mortgage fraud, with her legal team pointing out similar discrepancies by other officials, and a ruling on her case is expected by June [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve by President Trump, highlighting the implications for the Fed's independence and potential shifts in monetary policy [3][9]. Group 1: Nomination Process - President Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh for the next Federal Reserve Chairman, with the current Chairman Jerome Powell's term ending on May 15 this year [3]. - The nomination has been submitted to the Senate, which will conduct a confirmation hearing, potentially reigniting debates over the independence of the Federal Reserve [5][6]. - The Senate Banking Committee, controlled by Republicans, is expected to advance Warsh's confirmation, although there are dissenting voices within the party [5][6]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - Senator Elizabeth Warren criticized Warsh's nomination, suggesting he is merely a puppet for Trump and warning against advancing his confirmation due to ongoing political pressures on the Fed [7]. - The article notes that if Senator Thom Tillis votes against the nomination alongside Democratic senators, it could block the nomination from reaching the full Senate [6]. Group 3: Implications for the Federal Reserve - Warsh's nomination will fill the seat currently held by Stephen Moore, who has been a proponent of aggressive rate cuts, indicating a potential shift in the Fed's policy direction [8]. - Despite the nomination, the number of Trump-appointed members supporting rate cuts remains a minority within the Federal Reserve [8]. - The article mentions that Trump's administration has previously pressured Powell regarding interest rates, indicating a contentious relationship between the White House and the Fed [9]. Group 4: Future Meetings and Market Expectations - Warsh's first Federal Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for June 16-17 [10]. - Market expectations for a rate cut under the new chairman are low, with less than a 35% probability of a cut being announced during his initial meeting, suggesting that any rate changes may not occur until after July [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is engaged in a private legal battle against two subpoenas related to a criminal investigation of Chairman Jerome Powell initiated by federal prosecutor Jenna Ellis, a long-time ally of former President Trump [1][2] Group 1: Investigation Details - The investigation aims to verify whether Powell's testimony regarding the renovation of the Federal Reserve building last summer was false [1][2] - Powell publicly responded to the investigation on January 11, stating that it is a pretext for Trump to exert pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and undermine the central bank's independence [1][2] Group 2: Legal Proceedings - The Federal Reserve has requested a judge to quash the subpoenas through a non-public process to lessen or eliminate its obligation to cooperate with the investigation [1][2] - The specific legal basis for the Federal Reserve's request remains unknown [1][2] - It is common for subpoenaed parties to resist prosecutors' demands by arguing that the scope of the investigation is too broad or that it seeks information protected by legal privilege [1][2] - Due to grand jury secrecy rules, the details of this legal confrontation have not been made public [1][2]

Group 1 - The iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver ETF, reported a holding of 16,079.74 tons of silver as of February 25, a decrease of 28.18 tons from the previous trading day [1] - On February 25, the spot silver price closed at $89.17 per ounce, marking an increase of 2.39%, with an intraday high of $91.27 and a low of $86.51 [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials highlighted that inflation remains a key issue for the Fed, with differing views on the current policy stance being neutral [3] - There are discussions regarding the impact of artificial intelligence on the workforce, with some officials cautioning against immediate conclusions about job replacement [3] - The outgoing Atlanta Fed President emphasized the importance of maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the recent central bank gold purchases have slowed down, the structural demand from the official sector remains strong. Coupled with uncertainties in US tariff policies and geopolitical tensions, precious metal prices are still supported. However, due to recent statements from Fed officials, prices may remain volatile at high levels. The strategy is to remain on the sidelines for now, with the reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold futures contract at 1,130 - 1,200 yuan/gram and the reference operating range for the main Shanghai silver futures contract at 22,000 - 23,300 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 0.65% to 1,153.90 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 1.88% to 23,365.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.21% to 5,187.90 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 1.97% to 89.23 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.05%, and the US dollar index was reported at 97.65. On Wednesday, precious metal prices fluctuated upwards against the backdrop of a weaker US dollar and rising geopolitical uncertainties [2] 3.2 Strategy and Views - The strategy is to remain on the sidelines for now, with the reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold futures contract at 1,130 - 1,200 yuan/gram and the reference operating range for the main Shanghai silver futures contract at 22,000 - 23,300 yuan/kilogram [3] 3.3 Key Data Summary - **Gold**: - COMEX gold: The closing price of the active contract was 5,183.70 US dollars/ounce, up 0.45%; the trading volume was 10.77 million lots, down 23.89%; the open interest was 40.71 million lots, up 0.66%; the inventory was 1,046 tons, down 0.22%. - LBMA gold: The closing price was 5,120.25 US dollars/ounce, down 1.37%. - SHFE gold: The closing price of the active contract was 1,151.06 yuan/gram, up 0.05%; the trading volume was 27.01 million lots, up 52.62%; the open interest was 29.90 million lots, down 2.08%; the inventory was 105.07 tons, unchanged; the settled funds were 55.061 billion yuan, out - flowed 2.03%. - AuT + D: The trading volume was 29.25 tons, up 7.13%; the open interest was 240.49 tons, up 0.69% [6] - **Silver**: - COMEX silver: The closing price of the active contract was 89.21 US dollars/ounce, up 2.46%; the open interest was 13.15 million lots, down 1.61%; the inventory was 11,255 tons, down 0.59%. - LBMA silver: The closing price was 88.11 US dollars/ounce, up 1.34%. - SHFE silver: The closing price of the active contract was 23,029.00 yuan/kilogram, up 3.14%; the trading volume was 98.10 million lots, up 91.04%; the open interest was 52.31 million lots, up 4.09%; the inventory was 355.83 tons, up 1.70%; the settled funds were 32.523 billion yuan, up 7.36%. - AgT + D: The trading volume was 244.09 tons, up 21.67%; the open interest was 3,087.676 tons, up 0.29% [6] 3.4 ETF Holdings - **Gold**: - The closing price of SPDR US gold was 473.42 US dollars, down 0.25%. The holding of iShare US was 499.32 tons, unchanged; GBS UK was 30.72 tons, unchanged; PHAU UK was 54.48 tons, unchanged; GOLD UK was 29.77 tons, unchanged; SGBS Switzerland was 35.29 tons, down 0.06%. - **Silver**: - The closing price of SLV US silver was 80.04 US dollars, up 1.21%. The holding was 16,079.74 tons, down 0.17%; the settled funds were 4.6878 billion US dollars, up 2.77%; the trading volume was 61.1698 million shares, up 9.21%. The holding of ETPMAG Australia was 486.13 tons, unchanged; PSLV Canada was 6747.36 tons, unchanged; CEF Canada was 1610.16 tons, unchanged [64]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global market risk appetite continues to rise due to the increased difficulty of the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiations. The real - effect of Shanghai's real - estate policy on the market should be rationally viewed. The short - term bond market is volatile, and there is a long - term adjustment risk. The prices of various commodities have different trends and influencing factors, and corresponding investment suggestions are put forward for each commodity [17][20][24] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US may raise the "global import tariff" on some countries to 15%. Gold prices are supported by the weakening of the US dollar index, US tariff policies, and the uncertainty of US - Iran negotiations. However, the short - term interest rate cut willingness of the Fed is low, and gold prices continue to fluctuate. Silver is supported by low inventory, but its upward trend may not last [12] - Investment advice: Precious metals will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the upward trend of silver may be difficult to sustain [13] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Cuba fired at a US speedboat, and the US envoy requires the Iran nuclear agreement to be permanent, increasing the negotiation difficulty. The EU is evaluating that the new US tariffs may be higher than the 15% upper limit of the agreement. The global market risk preference continues to rise [14][15][17] - Investment advice: The US dollar will continue to fluctuate [18] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Shanghai issued the "Seven - Point Plan for Shanghai" to optimize real - estate policies, reducing the home - purchase threshold and releasing a positive policy signal. The real - estate sector rose, but the increase was limited. In the context of an aging population and income pressure, residents' ability to increase leverage is limited [19][20] - Investment advice: Hold stock index long positions in a balanced manner [21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Shanghai optimized real - estate policies, and the central bank conducted 4095 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 95 billion yuan on that day. The real - estate policy has limited negative impact on the bond market. In the short term, the bond market sentiment is not likely to turn weak, and there is still rebound momentum in some periods. In the long term, the bond market is not optimistic [23][24] - Investment advice: The bond market will fluctuate in the short term, and there is still an adjustment risk in the long term [25] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Lvliang is oscillating. After the Spring Festival, the supply of coking coal has increased, but the demand is weak. The coke market also has problems such as inventory accumulation and weak demand. The market will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [26][27] - Investment advice: The market will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [28] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Australia made an anti - dumping final review ruling on Chinese rebar, and Mexico launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese cold - rolled coils. After Shanghai relaxed real - estate purchase restrictions, steel prices rose, but the fundamental pressure is still obvious. The steel price is in the stage of oscillating and bottom - grinding in the short term [30][32] - Investment advice: The steel price will oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to the opportunity of undervalued prices [33] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - As of February 21, 2026, Brazil's cotton planting was 99.9% complete. After the festival, textile enterprises are resuming work. Some spinning enterprises have raised yarn prices, but the increase is less than that of cotton. The downstream market's acceptance of raw material price increases needs to be observed. The commercial cotton inventory is lower than last year, and the market is worried about the tight supply in the later period [34][36][37] - Investment advice: Zheng cotton is expected to be difficult to fall in the short term, and the market will be mainly oscillating strongly. Pay close attention to the macro - situation and downstream enterprise conditions [37] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina's weather will be drier this week, and the condition of soybean crops is declining. Brazil's soybean harvest is behind schedule, but exports are stable. In China, factors such as new purchases of US soybeans, reserve sales, and customs policies need to be focused on [38] - Investment advice: Temporarily view soybean meal with an oscillating mindset [40] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia urges the EU to restore market access for Indonesian palm oil products. From February 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production and exports decreased. The palm oil market may decline in production and exports in February, and the inventory is expected to fall to 250 - 260 million tons. In March, production is expected to remain low, and attention should be paid to the replenishment demand in the sales area [41][42][43] - Investment advice: The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is expected to decline in February, and attention should be paid to the replenishment demand in the sales area in March [43] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - From February 12 - 18, 2026, the consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises decreased. The progress of farmers selling corn is faster than in previous years. The downstream inventory is at a relatively high level, and the demand support may weaken. The corn futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [44][45] - Investment advice: Be vigilant against the technical correction risk after the optimistic sentiment fades. The corn futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [45] 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zimbabwe suspended the export of all raw ores and lithium concentrates. It is estimated that the monthly supply will be affected by 12,000 tons of LCE. In the short term, the impact on domestic smelters is controllable, but it will intensify the de - stocking. In the long term, it will affect the annual stocking trend. Be vigilant against the negative feedback from the demand side [46][47] - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish mindset in the short term, and pay attention to the price correction after the supply increases in the medium term [48] 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On February 24, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $49.85 per ton. The Shanghai lead price oscillated at a low level. The downstream consumption is lacking, and the inventory is high. The lead price will oscillate weakly, but the decline space is limited due to the cost support [49][50] - Investment advice: Observe in the short term and consider long positions in the medium term [50] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On February 24, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $31.93 per ton. The zinc price oscillated. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic inventory increased. The downstream start - up speed is slow. The zinc price is recommended to be treated with a bullish mindset, and continue to hold the Call [51] - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish mindset for the single - side trading, and continue to hold the previous Call. Observe for arbitrage [51] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - In 2025, the global refined copper market had a surplus of 380,000 tons. European copper processing enterprises warned about the shortage of raw material supply. Chile's new government may adjust mining policies. The macro - sentiment is warming up, which will support the non - ferrous metal prices. The short - term copper price is likely to oscillate strongly [52][53][56] - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish mindset for the single - side trading and continue to buy on dips. Observe for arbitrage [56] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - On February 24, the LME 0 - 3 tin was at a discount of $10 per ton. The supply of tin ore is expected to be tight in the long term. The downstream enterprises have not fully resumed work, and the spot market is cold. The tin price is expected to oscillate strongly and widely [57][58] - Investment advice: The tin price is expected to oscillate strongly and widely. Pay attention to the macro - situation, supply recovery, and post - festival consumption [58] 3.2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ is considering a small increase in production. The EIA commercial crude oil inventory increased significantly. The oil price oscillated weakly, and the market is concerned about the progress of the US - Iran negotiations [59][60][61] - Investment advice: Pay close attention to the changes in the US - Iran situation in the short term [62] 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Saudi Aramco cancelled the March loading plan due to force majeure, which stimulated the international market price to rise. The international market is expected to be strong in the short term [63] - Investment advice: The price is expected to be strong in the short term [65] 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt increased. The downstream demand has not fully recovered, and the market is in a weak state. The short - term asphalt price still has support [65][66] - Investment advice: The asphalt price will oscillate in the short term [67] 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (LLDPE) - The inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses and production enterprises increased. The inventory accumulation speed is normal during the holiday, and the subsequent de - stocking speed needs to be observed [68][69][70] - Investment advice: Observe the de - stocking speed and geopolitical issues [71] 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - The methanol port inventory increased slightly. The unloading and提货 speed are slow. Iranian devices are restarting. Before the geopolitical issues are resolved, continue to observe methanol. After the issues are resolved, consider short - selling or 5 - 9 reverse arbitrage [72][74] - Investment advice: Observe methanol before the geopolitical issues are resolved, and consider short - selling or 5 - 9 reverse arbitrage after the issues are resolved [75] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports increased significantly. The pure benzene port inventory is high, and the de - stocking is difficult before mid - March. The styrene is suppressed by potential supply increases. Pay attention to the actual inventory accumulation in February and the change of trading logic [76][77] - Investment advice: The pure benzene price may rise after short - term oscillation. The styrene is suppressed by supply increases. Pay attention to inventory accumulation and trading logic changes [78] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival. The international urea price is easy to rise. The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand for spring plowing is approaching. The urea price is expected to be strong, but policy intervention should be noted [79][81] - Investment advice: Market participants should replenish inventory based on rigid demand and reduce speculative operations. The urea futures market should be treated with an oscillating mindset [82] 3.2.19 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The opening price of MSK from Shanghai to Rotterdam in the 11th week decreased, and the shipping capacity pressure still exists. The spot freight rate in March is expected to decline. The market sentiment has shifted from expectation - driven to reality - driven [83] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling the 04 contract at high prices in the short term [83]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve amid increasing political pressure from the Trump administration, as expressed by outgoing Atlanta Fed President Bostic [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Bostic warns that recent legal and rhetorical battles surrounding the Federal Reserve have led to public skepticism about its independence, which he considers a significant issue [1]. - The Federal Reserve is facing unprecedented pressure for interest rate cuts from President Trump and his administration [1]. - There are ongoing legal disputes, including an attempt by Trump to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, marking the first time a president has sought to dismiss a Fed official [1]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Its Implications - The Trump administration's actions have intensified concerns that political pressures may undermine the Fed's independence, potentially shifting monetary policy away from inflation and economic growth objectives towards political demands [1]. - The Federal Reserve and the U.S. dollar serve as critical anchors in the global financial system, meaning that both verbal and legal pressures can have worldwide implications [1].

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, Raphael Bostic, expressed concerns about the growing skepticism among the American public regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, emphasizing the need to maintain this independence [1]. Group 1 - Bostic's recent visits have revealed a rising doubt among various sectors about the legal and rhetorical battles surrounding the central bank, which is alarming [1]. - He highlighted that the questioning of the Federal Reserve's independence is a significant issue that needs to be addressed [1].