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二级估值带动一级?复盘创业板的“第三阶段”
北证三板研习社· 2025-06-19 13:24
Group 1 - The recent decline in the North Exchange (北交所) was nearly 2%, with 241 stocks falling, indicating a concentrated release of negative sentiment despite the North 50 Index not fully reflecting the severity of the drop [1] - The closing point of 1365.79 represents a 9% pullback from the recent high of 1500, with the median PE (TTM) at 50.26X, down 10% from the peak of 55.58X on May 21 [1] - The analysis suggests that the index has not yet completed its adjustment phase [1] Group 2 - The current PE of 50X for the North Exchange is comparable to the second phase of the ChiNext (创业板) in early 2015, indicating potential for significant valuation increases in the upcoming third phase [2] - Historical data shows that during the ChiNext's first and second phases, the median PE rose from 26.53X to 59.66X, with a total of 47 companies listed, and the average fundraising amount was 25.68 million [2] - In the third phase of ChiNext, despite a significant increase in market valuation, the IPO prices did not rise proportionately, suggesting that a similar trend may occur in the North Exchange [2] Group 3 - In the North Exchange's first and second phases, 16 stocks were issued with an average issuance PE of 13.85X and an average fundraising size of 2.75 million, totaling 44 million raised [3] - As valuations are expected to rise and trading becomes more active, there is speculation that IPOs may accelerate, potentially reaching a frequency of one issuance every two days [3] - The expectation is that IPO issuance prices may remain relatively low despite increasing market valuations [3]