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生猪:关注后续二育转抛预期
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-04-17 01:25
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, second - stage fattening started, and state reserve rotation will support the downstream. Group companies are actively selling piglets without the drive to actively sell fattened pigs. Spot prices in April still have support, but high temperatures after May may cause greater selling pressure. Group companies' costs in March decreased significantly, and far - month contracts offer high hedging profits. External piglet purchases for hedging also have entry opportunities, gradually returning to the industrial logic. Pay attention to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2505 contract is 12,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 14,920 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year; Sichuan's is 14,760 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton year - on - year; and Guangdong's is 15,240 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year [2] - **Futures Prices**: The price of Live Pig 2505 is 13,545 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton year - on - year; Live Pig 2507 is 13,590 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton year - on - year; Live Pig 2509 is 14,325 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Live Pig 2505 is 4,823 lots, a decrease of 1,450 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 12,446 lots, a decrease of 1,901 lots. For Live Pig 2507, the trading volume is 6,497 lots, an increase of 734 lots, and the open interest is 35,008 lots, a decrease of 429 lots. For Live Pig 2509, the trading volume is 54,167 lots, an increase of 23,446 lots, and the open interest is 75,597 lots, a decrease of 226 lots [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of Live Pig 2505 is 1,375 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton year - on - year; Live Pig 2507 is 1,330 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; Live Pig 2509 is 595 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton year - on - year. The 5 - 7 spread is - 45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton year - on - year, and the 7 - 9 spread is - 735 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. A value of -2 indicates the most bearish view, and 2 indicates the most bullish view [3] 3. Market Logic - After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, second - stage fattening started, and state reserve rotation will support the downstream. Group companies are actively selling piglets without the drive to actively sell fattened pigs. Spot prices in April still have support, but high temperatures after May may cause greater selling pressure. Group companies' costs in March decreased significantly, and far - month contracts offer high hedging profits. External piglet purchases for hedging also have entry opportunities, gradually returning to the industrial logic. Pay attention to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2505 contract is 12,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,000 yuan/ton [4]