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大摩:年资本开支从 1000 亿跃至 3000 亿(2026 年起),阿里云海外发力扛起中国科技出海希望
傅里叶的猫· 2025-10-04 15:58
Core Viewpoint - The article presents a pessimistic outlook on the ability of Chinese cloud service providers to compete with American counterparts, suggesting it may take at least 20 years for them to establish a significant presence in the global market [2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Chinese companies, even those expanding overseas, tend to avoid using Chinese cloud services, as evidenced by successful firms like Shein and Temu storing their data on foreign platforms [2]. - Alibaba Cloud's recent commitment to expanding its overseas cloud services is highlighted as a significant step, with over 95% of Chinese outbound automotive companies opting for Alibaba Cloud services, potentially changing the trend of Chinese companies not choosing domestic cloud providers [2]. Group 2: Infrastructure Expansion - Alibaba has announced plans to increase its overseas investment by establishing data centers in Brazil, France, and the Netherlands, with additional centers planned in Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and Dubai within the next year [7]. - Currently, Alibaba Cloud has a global presence with 91 available zones across 29 regions, indicating a robust infrastructure network [7]. Group 3: Capacity Growth Projections - Morgan Stanley estimates that Alibaba Cloud's data center computing power will grow from approximately 2.5 GW in 2022 to 25 GW by 2032, with an annual increase of over 3 GW expected between 2026 and 2032 [9]. - UBS predicts that Alibaba's investment in cloud services will exceed market expectations, with an annual expansion of 1-2 GW in data center capacity, translating to an additional capital expenditure of 100-200 billion RMB each year [9].