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《农产品》日报-20251218
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-18 01:59
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may have a short - term rebound near 3900 ringgit, with a near - weak and far - strong pattern. Dalian palm oil futures may seek support around 8300 yuan and could fluctuate in the 8200 - 8300 range [1]. - Soybean oil: With uncertain biodiesel policies in the US and upcoming Brazilian soybean harvest, CBOT soybean oil is under pressure. In China, short - term supply is sufficient, but with the approaching Spring Festival stocking and reduced soybean imports in Q1, domestic factory soybean oil inventories may decrease, and basis quotes are expected to have limited fluctuations [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Affected by the decline in US crude oil prices and subsequent events, the domestic vegetable oil market was first dragged down and then rebounded. Attention should be paid to whether the rapeseed oil 05 contract can stop falling in the 8900 - 9000 yuan range [1]. Pork - Spot prices are stable, and with the increasing demand for southern curing, the downside support is stronger. There is high uncertainty in the December - January market due to the possible impact of the epidemic and the potential entry of secondary fattening pigs. The spot market has a sentiment of holding back sales, which supports the market. The futures market rose on the news of tariff increase on European pork imports but then fell as the actual tariff was lowered and the impact of imported pork on domestic supply is limited. The futures market will continue to adjust narrowly [3]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are in a bearish pattern due to the favorable export conditions in Brazil and the expected increase in sugar production in Brazil, India, and Thailand. In China, the sugar - pressing speed in the main producing areas has accelerated, and the futures market price is weakening due to increased supply. The market is expected to remain weak [7]. Meal - The US soybean market lacks trading highlights, and the South American new - crop soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, which suppresses the US soybean price. The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern. Although there is speculation about delayed soybean clearance and a sentiment of supporting prices, the upward space is limited, and there is a risk of decline [9]. Corn - In the Northeast, the grass - roots have a sentiment of supporting prices, and the prices in the producing areas are stable. In the north port, the supply has increased, and the price has slightly decreased. In North China, farmers sell when the price is high and hold back when the price is low. On the demand side, deep - processing enterprises purchase on demand, and feed enterprises have a slightly lower willingness to pay for new orders. In the short term, the increase in corn supply will put pressure on the price, but the price decline is limited due to the grass - roots' price - supporting sentiment and the need for low - inventory enterprises to replenish stocks. The market will fluctuate narrowly [10]. Red Dates - After the acquisition, the sales area has more arrivals but lower - than - expected transactions. The price in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market is firm, while that in the Guangdong Ruyifang market has slightly declined. The futures price is weak, the spot price is stable, and the basis is strengthening. The market may be boosted by improved transactions during the consumption peak, and the downward momentum is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the inventory level after the Spring Festival and the planting area and early - stage weather in 2026 [17]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures rose due to short - covering. The US cotton export sales showed a decrease compared to the previous week and the four - week average. The US cotton market will remain volatile. In China, although the market expects a decline in the Xinjiang planting area next year, the downstream industry is weak, with increasing finished - product inventories and deteriorating spinning enterprise profits and cash flows. However, the rigid demand for cotton raw materials by spinning enterprises remains, so the downside space of cotton prices is limited, but there is pressure above. Attention should be paid to the resistance level around 14050 - 14100 [21]. Eggs - Egg prices are gradually rising from a low level, leading to a sentiment of holding back sales among farmers. The number of newly - laying hens is decreasing, but the overall inventory improvement is not obvious. With favorable storage conditions due to the recent cooling, egg supply remains sufficient. The market transaction is okay, with increased buying sentiment in low - price areas and high inventory pressure in high - price areas. All links are actively clearing inventory. The egg market is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation pattern [23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On December 17, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8460 yuan, down 0.59% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2605 was 8096 yuan, down 0.93%; the basis of Y2605 was 364 yuan, up 7.69%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 25964 [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8380 yuan, down 0.59%; the futures price of P2605 was 8398 yuan, down 0.92%; the basis of P2605 was - 18 yuan, up 60.87%. The import cost in Guangzhou Port for May was 8848.4 yuan, down 0.77%, and the import profit was - 450 yuan, down 2.02%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 950 [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9570 yuan, down 0.83%; the futures price of O1605 was 9157 yuan, down 1.59%; the basis of O1R05 was 413 yuan, up 19.71%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 3386 to 3336 [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil 05 - 09 spread was 68 yuan, down 15%; the palm oil 05 - 09 spread was 102 yuan, down 15%; the rapeseed oil 05 - 09 spread was 13 yuan, down 68.29%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread remained unchanged at 80 yuan; the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread was - 520 yuan, up 3.35%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1110 yuan, down 2.63%; the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1061 yuan, down 6.35% [1]. Pork - **Futures**: The main - contract basis was 315, up 215% from the previous day. The price of live - hog 2605 was 11955 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the price of live - hog 2603 was 11435 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. The 3 - 5 spread was - 520, up 10.34%. The main - contract position was 167381, up 6.87%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 823 [3]. - **Spot**: In Henan, the price was 11750 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; in Shandong, it was 11700 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; in Sichuan, it was 12100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in Liaoning, it was 11200 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 12410 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hunan, it was 11260 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Hebei, it was 11650 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [3]. - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points was 231951, up 2.48%; the weekly strip price was 18 yuan, down 0.17%; the weekly piglet price was 16.5 yuan/kg, down 2.94%; the weekly sow price was 32.46 yuan, down 0.03%; the weekly slaughter weight was 129.63 kg, down 0.15%; the weekly cumulative breeding profit was - 163 yuan, up 2.59%; the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit was - 241 yuan, up 7.21%; the monthly number of fertile sows was 39900000, down 1.12% [3]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of sugar 2601 was 5215 yuan/ton, up 0.06%; the price of sugar 2605 was 5139 yuan/ton, up 0.12%. The ICE raw sugar main - contract price was 14.76 cents/lb, down 0.61%. The 1 - 5 spread was 76 yuan/ton, down 3.8%. The main - contract position was 487935, up 1.35%. The number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts remained unchanged at 611 and 1490 respectively [7]. - **Spot**: In Nanning, the price was 5320 yuan/ton, down 0.37%; in Kunming, it was 5245 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. The Nanning basis was 181 yuan, down 12.56%; the Kunming basis was 106 yuan, down 16.54%. The import price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4094 yuan/ton, down 0.8%; outside the quota was 5188 yuan/ton, down 0.82% [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1050000 tons, down 23.24%; the cumulative national sugar sales was 350000 tons, down 42.53%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 133900 tons, down 73.87%; the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi was 89400 tons, down 68.63%. The national cumulative sugar - sales rate was 33.5%, down 24.75%; the cumulative sugar - sales rate in Guangxi was 66.77%, up 20.05%. The national industrial inventory was 700000 tons, down 7.4%; the industrial inventory in Guangxi was 44500 tons, down 80.43%; the industrial inventory in Yunnan was 12600 tons, up 110%. The sugar import volume was 750000 tons, up 38.89% [7]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: In Jiangsu, the spot price was 3100 yuan, down 0.32%; the futures price of M2605 was 2756 yuan, down 0.76%; the basis of M2605 was 344 yuan, up 3.3%. The spot basis quote was m2605 + 280. The import crushing profit for Brazilian soybeans in February was 38, up 140.7%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 23830 [9]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In Jiangsu, the spot price was 2410 yuan, up 0.42%; the futures price of RM2605 was 2331 yuan, down 1.19%; the basis of RM2605 was 79 yuan, up 92.68%. The import crushing profit for Canadian rapeseed in January was 476, down 7.57%. The number of warehouse receipts was 0 [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3940 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - one contract was 4090 yuan, unchanged; the basis was - 150 yuan, unchanged. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3950 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - two contract was 3739 yuan, down 1.16%; the basis was 211 yuan, up 26.35%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 17034 [9]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal 05 - 09 spread was - 110 yuan, down 10%; the rapeseed meal 05 - 09 spread was - 69 yuan, down 25.45%. The spot oil - meal ratio was 2.73, down 0.27%; the main - contract oil - meal ratio was 2.84, up 0.12%. The spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 690 yuan, down 2.82%; the 2605 soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 425 yuan, up 1.67% [9]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 was 2206 yuan, down 0.63%; the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan, down 0.44%; the basis was 74 yuan, up 5.71%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 33 yuan, down 83.33%. The bulk grain price in Shekou was 2410 yuan, down 0.41%. The north - south trade profit was 30 yuan, unchanged. The CIF price was 2120 yuan, down 0.1%; the import profit was 290 yuan, down 2.65%. The number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning was 421, down 59.48%. The number of warehouses decreased from 2146100 to 2098833, down 2.2%. The number of warehouse receipts was 54440, down 0.87% [10]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 was 2512 yuan, up 0.4%. The spot price in Changchun was 2590 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Weifang was 2800 yuan, unchanged. The basis was 78 yuan, down 11.36%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 35 yuan, up 18.6%. The 01 - contract spread between starch and corn was 306 yuan, up 8.51%. The profit of Shandong starch enterprises was - 8 yuan, down 233.33%. The number of warehouses decreased from 287376 to 286198, down 0.41%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2500 [10]. Red Dates - **Futures**: The price of red dates 2601 was 8830 yuan, unchanged; the price of red dates 2605 (main contract) was 8915 yuan, down 0.56%; the price of red dates 2609 was 9235 yuan, down 0.48%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 85 yuan, up 37.04%; the 5 - 9 spread was - 320 yuan, down 1.59%. The position was 175737, up 1.68%. The number of warehouse receipts was 982, up 11.21%; the effective forecast was 1145, up 0.97%; the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 2127, up 5.45% [14]. - **Spot**: The price of top - grade red dates in Cangzhou was 9650 yuan, down 0.21%; the price of first - grade red dates was 8600 yuan, unchanged; the price of second - grade red dates was 7200 yuan, unchanged. The basis of top - grade red dates to the main contract was 135 yuan, up 28.57%; the basis of first - grade red dates to the main contract was 885 yuan, up 5.99% [14]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of cotton 2605 was 13925 yuan/ton, down 0.14%; the price of cotton 2601 was 13930 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The ICE US cotton main - contract price was 63.46 cents/lb, up 0.52%. The 5 - 1 spread was - 5 yuan/ton, down 200%. The main - contract position was 731267, up 2.48%. The number of warehouse receipts was 3482, up 8.85%; the effective forecast was 3898, down 3.08% [21]. - **Spot**: The arrival price of 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 1