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豆类及主粮期权早报-20260401
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 05:30
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides an in - depth analysis of the futures and options markets of beans, grains, and related products, including market data, option factors, and offers corresponding trading strategies based on the analysis of each product's market conditions [6][18][30]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data of Underlying Futures - **A (Soybean No.1 Options)**: The a2605 contract closed at 4641 yuan yesterday, up 1.62% from the previous day. The trading volume was 195,071 lots, an increase of 84,745 lots, and the open interest was 181,932 lots, a decrease of 756 lots [3][6]. - **B (Soybean No.2 Options)**: The b2605 contract closed at 3718 yuan yesterday, down 0.48% from the previous day. The trading volume was 116,820 lots, a decrease of 10,635 lots, and the open interest was 167,916 lots, a decrease of 7,524 lots [15][18]. - **C (Corn Options)**: The c2605 contract closed at 2351 yuan yesterday, down 0.25% from the previous day. The trading volume was 425,451 lots, a decrease of 263,687 lots, and the open interest was 1,023,010 lots, a decrease of 29,630 lots [27][30]. - **CS (Starch Options)**: The cs2605 contract closed at 2745 yuan yesterday, up 0.03% from the previous day. The trading volume was 88,083 lots, a decrease of 32,159 lots, and the open interest was 235,927 lots, a decrease of 9,716 lots [39][42]. - **M (Soybean Meal Options)**: The m2605 contract closed at 2915 yuan yesterday, down 0.74% from the previous day. The trading volume was 717,760 lots, a decrease of 73,754 lots, and the open interest was 1,384,260 lots, a decrease of 80,910 lots [51][54]. - **RM (Rapeseed Meal Options)**: The RM605 contract closed at 2299 yuan yesterday, down 0.77% from the previous day. The trading volume was 484,885 lots, a decrease of 60,566 lots, and the open interest was 541,727 lots, an increase of 8,198 lots [63][66]. 2. Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - **A (Soybean No.1 Options)**: The trading volume of call options was 96,512 lots, an increase of 65,130 lots; the open interest was 88,867 lots, an increase of 7,071 lots. The trading volume of put options was 24,479 lots, an increase of 4,969 lots; the open interest was 62,300 lots, a decrease of 911 lots. The trading volume PCR was 0.25, a decrease of 0.37; the open interest PCR was 0.7, a decrease of 0.07 [4]. - **B (Soybean No.2 Options)**: The trading volume of call options was 14,096 lots, an increase of 4,684 lots; the open interest was 28,137 lots, an increase of 1,171 lots. The trading volume of put options was 8,028 lots, an increase of 3,880 lots; the open interest was 24,870 lots, an increase of 1,658 lots. The trading volume PCR was 0.57, an increase of 0.13; the open interest PCR was 0.88, an increase of 0.02 [16]. - **C (Corn Options)**: The trading volume of call options was 111,036 lots, a decrease of 41,261 lots; the open interest was 398,430 lots, an increase of 1,301 lots. The trading volume of put options was 56,414 lots, an increase of 38,051 lots; the open interest was 228,148 lots, an increase of 2,896 lots. The trading volume PCR was 0.49, a decrease of 0.11; the open interest PCR was 0.54 [28]. - **CS (Starch Options)**: The trading volume of call options was 26,721 lots, a decrease of 858 lots; the open interest was 47,878 lots, an increase of 884 lots. The trading volume of put options was 11,897 lots, a decrease of 3,049 lots; the open interest was 30,371 lots, an increase of 1,020 lots. The trading volume PCR was 0.45, a decrease of 0.1; the open interest PCR was 0.63, an increase of 0.01 [40]. - **M (Soybean Meal Options)**: The trading volume of call options was 265,888 lots, a decrease of 16,329 lots; the open interest was 416,707 lots, a decrease of 9,689 lots. The trading volume of put options was 142,508 lots, an increase of 1,215 lots; the open interest was 377,822 lots, a decrease of 6,051 lots. The trading volume PCR was 0.52, an increase of 0.04; the open interest PCR was 0.85, an increase of 0.01 [52]. - **RM (Rapeseed Meal Options)**: The trading volume of call options was 139,684 lots, an increase of 44,822 lots; the open interest was 206,140 lots, an increase of 16,984 lots. The trading volume of put options was 47,633 lots, an increase of 4,186 lots; the open interest was 108,574 lots, an increase of 4,517 lots. The trading volume PCR was 0.34, a decrease of 0.12; the open interest PCR was 0.53, a decrease of 0.02 [64]. 3. Option Factor - Pressure and Support - **A (Soybean No.1 Options)**: The at - the - money strike price of the a2605 contract was 4650. The pressure level was 4900, and the support level was 4550. The weighted implied volatility was 20.72%, an increase of 2.06%. The annual average implied volatility was 14.68%, and HISV2 was 22.62% [5]. - **B (Soybean No.2 Options)**: The at - the - money strike price of the b2605 contract was 3700. The pressure level was 3750, and the support level was 3400. The weighted implied volatility was 21.42%, a decrease of 0.93%. The annual average implied volatility was 16.33%, and HISV2 was 20.77% [17]. - **C (Corn Options)**: The at - the - money strike price of the c2605 contract was 2360. The pressure level was 2400, and the support level was 2300. The weighted implied volatility was 14.06%, a decrease of 1.23%. The annual average implied volatility was 11.57%, and HISV2 was 8.36% [29]. - **CS (Starch Options)**: The at - the - money strike price of the cs2605 contract was not clearly stated. The pressure level was 3000, and the support level was 2700. The weighted implied volatility was 15.32%, a decrease of 0.20%. The annual average implied volatility was 12.32%, and HISV2 was 12.24% [41]. - **M (Soybean Meal Options)**: The at - the - money strike price of the m2605 contract was 2900. The pressure level was 3200, and the support level was 2800. The weighted implied volatility was 23.24%, a decrease of 1.70%. The annual average implied volatility was 17.28%, and HISV2 was 21.88% [53]. - **RM (Rapeseed Meal Options)**: The at - the - money strike price of the RM605 contract was 2300. The pressure level was 2800, and the support level was 2300. The weighted implied volatility was 31.06%, an increase of 0.82%. The annual average implied volatility was 24.19%, and HISV2 was 28.83% [65]. 4. Market Interpretation and Strategy Recommendations - **A (Soybean No.1 Options)**: The implied volatility of A (Soybean No.1 Options) fluctuated above the mean of 0.1468. The open interest PCR of A options was 0.701, at the 53.47% level in the past year. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short call + short put option combination strategy to obtain option time - value income and dynamically adjust the position. For example, S_A2605P4300 and S_A2605C4900 [6][7]. - **B (Soybean No.2 Options)**: The implied volatility of B (Soybean No.2 Options) fluctuated above the mean of 0.1633. The open interest PCR of B options was 0.8839, at the 68.57% level in the past year. Directional strategy: Construct a bull call spread strategy to obtain directional income. For example, B B2605C3650 and S B2605C3900; Volatility strategy: Do not recommend strategies mainly based on sellers (such as single - selling and double - selling) [18][19]. - **C (Corn Options)**: The implied volatility of C (Corn Options) fluctuated above the mean of 0.1157. The open interest PCR of C options was 0.5364, at the 40.00% level in the past year. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short call + short put option combination strategy to obtain option time - value income and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta neutral. For example, S_C2605P2300 and S_C2605C2420 [30][31]. - **CS (Starch Options)**: The implied volatility of CS (Starch Options) fluctuated above the mean of 0.1232. The open interest PCR of CS options was 0.6343, at the 37.96% level in the past year. Directional strategy: Construct a bull call spread strategy to obtain directional income; Volatility strategy: Construct a short call + short put option combination strategy to obtain option time - value income and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta neutral. For example, S_CS2605P2550 and S_CS2605C2850 [42][43]. - **M (Soybean Meal Options)**: The implied volatility of M (Soybean Meal Options) fluctuated above the mean of 0.1728. The open interest PCR of M options was 0.8467, at the 95.51% level in the past year. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short call + short put option combination strategy to obtain option time - value income and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta neutral. For example, S_M2605P2800 and S_M2605C3100 [54][55]. - **RM (Rapeseed Meal Options)**: The implied volatility of RM (Rapeseed Meal Options) fluctuated above the mean of 0.2419. The open interest PCR of RM options was 0.5267, at the 0.00% level in the past year. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short call + short put option combination strategy to obtain option time - value income and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta neutral. For example, S RM2605P2200 and S RM2605C2500 [66][67].
棉价外强内稳,纸浆延续弱势
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 05:25
Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][7][8] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: The global cotton market supply - demand pattern is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season. In China, due to increased consumption and potential production cuts, the medium - long - term cotton price center may rise, but short - term upside is limited by internal - external price differences and policy factors [2][3] - Sugar: Internationally, the raw sugar remains strong, and the Brazilian sugar - making ratio may decline. Domestically, there is an oversupply with high industrial inventory, and the upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is weak, but it has strong support due to the Middle East situation [5][7] - Pulp: The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026, but domestic demand is insufficient, and port inventory remains high. The pulp price is likely to consolidate at a low level in the short term [8] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 15,295 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton (-0.58%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,691 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16,850 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton. The USDA's 2026/27 crop planting intention report shows that the expected cotton planting area in the US is 9.64 million acres, up 3.9% year - on - year [1] Sugar - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,398 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton (-0.79%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,420 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,295 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The consulting firm Safras&Mercado predicts that Brazil's sugar export volume in the 2026/27 season may decrease by 14.2% to 29 million tons, and production will drop to 40.3 million tons, while ethanol production will increase by 10.7% to 42.58 billion liters [4] Pulp - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,124 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton (-1.12%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,155 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,790 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton. In February 2026, the total European port inventory increased by 15.34% month - on - month and 2.99% year - on - year [7] Group 4: Market Analysis Cotton - International: The Middle East conflict causes oil price fluctuations, and the macro - level impact on cotton prices needs attention. The global supply - demand pattern is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season. Domestic: In the 25/26 season, domestic cotton production increased significantly, but consumption also increased. The "Golden March and Silver April" peak season is expected to be good, and inventory may be tight at the end of the year. There is a production cut expectation for new crops [2] Sugar - International: The raw sugar is strong, and the Brazilian sugar - making ratio may decline due to geopolitical conflicts. Domestic: The sugarcane harvest is delayed, production increases more than expected, and the industry is in a inventory - building stage with high industrial inventory and increased imports [5] Pulp - Supply: Overseas new production capacity is limited in the past two years, and major overseas broadleaf pulp mills have announced production cuts and conversion plans. If European and American consumption improves, the pressure on China's imports may be relieved. Demand: Although there is a large amount of finished paper production capacity in China, terminal demand is insufficient, and port inventory remains high. In 2026, the demand for pulp is expected to improve [8] Group 5: Strategies - Cotton: Adopt a neutral strategy. Pay attention to new - year target price policies, planting area reduction, and potential reserve - releasing policies [3] - Sugar: Adopt a neutral strategy. Consider the sugar price as oscillating in the short term due to supply - demand and geopolitical factors [7] - Pulp: Adopt a neutral strategy. The pulp price is likely to consolidate at a low level in the short term due to high inventory [8]
农产品日报(2026 年4 月1日)-20260401
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 05:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillatory and slightly weak trend in the short term, with limited downward price space. Policy and macro factors are in a game, and short - selling can be considered in the short term. Pay attention to weather, selling rhythm, and policy grain release [1]. - Soybean meal is in an oscillatory state. The cost is the main factor, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - Oils are in an oscillatory state with an upward - shifted oscillatory range. Short - long participation is recommended [2]. - Eggs are in an oscillatory state. The price is supported by cost, with a lifted bottom. Short - term trading is recommended, and follow - up inventory data and prices of surrounding commodities should be monitored [2]. - Pigs are in an oscillatory state. Before the supply pressure is effectively relieved, the price is likely to remain weak. Pay attention to the impact of feed cost and prices of surrounding commodities [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: On Tuesday, corn oscillated. The May contract decreased in price with reduced positions. The northeast corn price continued to decline slightly, and the market atmosphere weakened. The supply in the market is relatively sufficient in the short term, but the downward price space is limited. The price will continue to oscillate narrowly in the short term. Pay attention to weather, selling rhythm, and policy grain release. The price in the sales area is generally weak [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans rose due to lower - than - expected planting area. The domestic protein meal oscillated downward, with a near - weak and far - strong pattern. The rising import cost helps to push up the price of protein meal. The decline in pig prices and the acceleration of breeding capacity reduction are not conducive to soybean meal consumption. The spot trading is sluggish, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - **Oils**: On Tuesday, BMD palm oil rose. Indonesia will implement the B50 policy from July 1. The March export data is good. The domestic oil market rose accordingly. The import cost is the main factor driving the price. The spot price oscillates, and the soybean - palm oil price difference exceeds 1000 yuan/ton, which restrains palm oil consumption. The expected decrease in soybean crushing volume will lead to a decline in soybean oil inventory, and the spot basis is strong. Palm oil is stronger than soybean oil and rapeseed oil. Short - long participation is recommended [2]. - **Eggs**: On Tuesday, the main egg futures contract 2605 oscillated and closed down 0.38%. The spot price decreased. The egg - laying hen inventory increased in March, and the supply still exerts pressure on the price. The price is supported by cost, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - **Pigs**: On Tuesday, pig futures continued to weaken. The spot price was stable with a slight decline. The slaughter volume is average, and the second - fattening replenishment is cautious, which has limited support for the price. Before the supply pressure is relieved, the price is likely to remain weak [2]. Market Information - Trump said the US may end the war with Iran in two to three weeks [3]. - Iran's President said Iran has no intention to start a war and is willing to end it under certain conditions [3]. - China's three ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - Indonesia will implement a fuel rationing system and the B50 bio - fuel policy from July 1 [3]. - China's manufacturing PMI in March was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range [3]. - The predicted US soybean planting area in 2026 is 84.7 million acres, lower than the Reuters' expectation; the wheat planting area is 43.775 million acres, also lower than the expectation [4]. - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [4]. - The steel industry PMI in March was 50.6%, up 3.9 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range [4]. - Some glass production lines are planned for cold repair or stopped operation [4]. - CSPT decided not to set a reference price for spot copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2026 [4]. - The global battery energy storage cumulative installed capacity is expected to increase by 8 - 17 times from 2024 to 2035 [5]. - International precious metal futures generally rose, while crude oil futures mainly declined [5]. Variety Spreads - The report provides charts of contract spreads and contract basis for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs, but no specific data analysis is given [6][7][9][10][14][15][17][21][22] Team Member Introduction - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has won many awards and has rich experience [25]. - Hou Xueling is a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, with over a decade of futures experience and many awards [25]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher on eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures, with relevant research experience and honors [25].
光大期货软商品日报(2026 年4月1日)-20260401
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 05:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Cotton**: On Tuesday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.3% to 69.98 cents per pound, and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased 0.71% to 15,295 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 21,505 lots to 493,600 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 16,470 yuan per ton, down 110 yuan from the previous day. The USDA planting area forecast report shows that the U.S. cotton planting area in 2026 is expected to be 9.64 million acres, much higher than the previous forecast of 9.23 million acres. In the domestic market, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 is likely to decline, but there are differences in the reduction range. The far - month contracts are relatively strong. Historically, when domestic and global cotton production and inventory - to - sales ratios decline year - on - year, the average annual increase of Zhengzhou cotton futures prices exceeds 9%, and the peak increase within the year exceeds 25%. As of now, the increase of Zhengzhou cotton futures prices in 2026 is lower than the historical average. In the short term, there are many market disturbances, and it is necessary to pay attention to planting intentions and the new round of cotton target price subsidy policy usually announced in early April. The market may fluctuate repeatedly in the short term [2]. - **Sugar**: A consulting company predicts that Brazil's sugar exports in the 2026/27 crushing season may decrease by 14.2%, with the total sugar exports expected to be 29 million tons, lower than 33.8 million tons in the 2025/26 season. The sugar production in the 2026/27 season is expected to drop to 40.3 million tons, compared with 43.5 million tons in the previous season. Ethanol production is expected to increase significantly, with the total production (including corn - based fuel) expected to grow by 10.7% to 42.58 billion liters. The spot price of raw sugar is suppressed by hedging orders, and the futures price returns to around 15.5 cents per pound. Domestic sugar mills are gradually ending the crushing season, and inventory is accumulating seasonally. Although domestic sugar prices are strong due to macro - sentiment and high raw sugar prices, other commodities are showing signs of returning to the fundamental logic. It is necessary to pay attention to the logic switch in the future. For now, it is treated as a range - bound market, waiting for short - selling opportunities, and paying attention to the sales and production data in March [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 5 - 9 contract spread is - 135 yuan, down 5 yuan; the main contract basis is 1,555 yuan, up 117 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang is 16,691 yuan per ton, up 35 yuan, and the national spot price is 16,850 yuan per ton, up 27 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The 5 - 9 contract spread is - 33 yuan, down 10 yuan; the main contract basis is 42 yuan, up 13 yuan. The spot price in Nanning is 5,420 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan, and the spot price in Liuzhou is 5,440 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan [3]. 3.2 Market Information - **Cotton**: On March 31, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 12,420, down 15 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 489. The cotton arrival prices in different domestic regions on March 31 were: 16,691 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 16,850 yuan per ton in Henan, 16,889 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 17,036 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The yarn comprehensive load on March 31 was 57.9, down 0.1 from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 16.8, up 0.2; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 60.6, unchanged from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 23.5, down 0.1 [4]. - **Sugar**: On March 31, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,420 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan from the previous trading day; the spot price in Liuzhou was 5,440 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts on March 31 was 16,862, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [4][5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and price index of cotton and sugar, with data sources from Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [7][16]
格林大华期货早盘提示:三油,两粕-20260401
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 02:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For vegetable oils, due to ongoing instability in the Middle East, the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, and Indonesia's clear B50 plan schedule, vegetable oils are expected to follow the trend of crude oil. It is recommended to hold long positions in vegetable oils [1][2]. - For double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal), due to the lower - than - expected US soybean planting area, the short - term support for the main contract of continuous meal is at the 2900 yuan/ton level. Near - month short positions should be gradually closed for profit, and new buying opportunities for far - month contracts should be awaited after adjustment [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oils 3.1.1 Market Review - On March 31, palm oil led the rise in the vegetable oil sector. The closing prices of main and sub - main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all showed varying degrees of decline, with different changes in positions [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - The US EPA requires the production and use of biodiesel and renewable diesel to increase by over 60% compared to 2025, and raises the proportion of the fuel quota for large refineries from 50% to 70% [1]. - Indonesia will implement a fuel rationing system, transfer the national institutional budget to "productive" uses, and implement the B50 biodiesel policy from July 1 [1]. - US NYMEX crude oil futures closed lower on Tuesday. The May crude oil futures contract fell $1.5, with a settlement price of $101.38 per barrel [1]. - From March 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.92% month - on - month, with different trends in different regions [1]. - Brazil's Abiove suggests increasing the proportion of biodiesel in regular diesel, while the energy minister calls for more tests [1]. - The US CPC predicts that La Nina will turn into ENSO neutral in the next month, and El Nino may form from June - August 2026 and last until the end of the year [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25 increased by 38.4% compared to the same period last month, with an increase in exports to China [1][2]. - As of the 13th weekend of 2026, the total inventory of three major domestic edible oils increased by 0.36% week - on - week and decreased by 5.92% year - on - year, with different trends in each type of oil [2]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, due to instability in the Middle East and the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, the US soybean oil futures are oscillating strongly at a high level. Indonesia's B50 plan tightens the future export expectation of palm oil. Vegetable oils mainly follow the trend of crude oil, and long positions in vegetable oils should be continued to hold [2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Hold long positions in vegetable oils. Provide pressure and support levels for different contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [2]. 3.2 Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review - On March 31, the spot market was weak, and double - meal continued to decline. The closing prices of main and sub - main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all showed varying degrees of decline, with different changes in positions [2]. 3.2.2 Important Information - The US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report shows that the estimated soybean planting area in the US in 2026 is 84.7 million acres, higher than last year but lower than analysts' expectations [2]. - As of March 27, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 72.99%, lower than last year but close to the five - year average [2]. - Brazil's March soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts are both lower than last week's forecasts [3]. - As of the 13th weekend of 2026, domestic import soybean inventory increased, while domestic soybean meal contract volume decreased. Imported rapeseed inventory and imported rapeseed meal contract volume both decreased [3]. - Provide spot prices, basis prices, and trading volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal as of March 31, as well as soybean crushing profits and soybean and rapeseed arrival costs [3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the US soybean futures closed higher due to the lower - than - expected planting area. The short - term support for the main contract of continuous meal is at the 2900 yuan/ton level. In the spot market, the price of soybean meal is expected to move down with the market, and short - term caution is advised for rapeseed meal. Near - month short positions should be gradually closed for profit, and new buying opportunities for far - month contracts should be awaited after adjustment [2][3]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Gradually close near - month short positions in double - meal and wait for new buying points for far - month contracts after adjustment. Provide pressure and support levels for different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [3].
农产品日报-20260331
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 11:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints Corn - Corn futures' main contract 2605 saw short - sellers reducing positions during price decline, providing short - term support. Northeast and North China corn prices were weak over the weekend, with increased supply. Southern market prices rose, but wheat auctions and substitution reduced corn demand. The futures' main contract faces upward pressure, and short - selling is recommended [1]. Soybean and Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans were almost flat on Monday, adjusting positions ahead of reports. US soybean acreage is expected to increase to 85.549 million acres, and inventory to 2.063 billion bushels, both negative factors. Domestic protein meal trended higher with a near - weak and far - strong pattern. Pig prices fell, reducing soybean meal consumption, and short - term trading is advised [1]. Palm Oil and Other Oils - BMD palm oil rose due to Indonesia's B50 plan and rising crude oil. High - frequency data showed a 38.4% - 50.6% increase in Malaysian palm oil exports from March 1 - 25. Domestic oil markets followed suit, with palm oil stronger than soybean and rapeseed oil. Short - term long - positions are recommended [1]. Eggs - The main egg futures contract 2605回调 after reaching the upper limit of the shock range, with a daily decline of 1.4%. Spot prices fell slightly. Supply pressure remains, but cost support raises the bottom of futures prices. Short - term trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to inventory data and surrounding commodity prices [2]. Pigs - The main pig futures contract 2605 oscillated at a low level, rising 0.4% daily. Spot prices rose slightly. Supply pressure persists, and prices are likely to remain weak. Attention should be paid to feed costs and surrounding commodity prices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - Military actions against Iran will continue for at least three more weeks, and the US may send more warships to the Middle East. China's M2 balance at the end of February was 349.22 trillion yuan, up 9% year - on - year. China will strengthen market supervision. Iron ore inventories at 45 ports increased, and the price increase lacks fundamental support. The US allows the purchase of Russian oil, and China will release fertilizer reserves. Fertilizer and energy prices have risen due to the conflict, and Iraq plans to resume oil exports [3][4]. Variety Spreads - The report presents contract spreads and basis for various agricultural products such as corn, soybean, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but specific spreads and basis values are not described in detail [5][8][10][13]
格林大华期货早盘提示:棉花-20260331
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 07:02
Group 1: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - ICE US cotton futures closed higher, with the main contract breaking through the 70 - cent mark, and the market is concerned about the USDA planting intention for next - year's production forecast. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton maintains a volatile trend, and the "Golden March" for downstream is coming to an end. Overall, Zhengzhou cotton remains in a relatively strong state [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Market Review**: Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume is 404,984, with an open interest of 1,087,785. The settlement prices are 15,405 for May, 15,540 for September, and 15,950 for January. ICE May contract settled at 70.19 cents, up 73 points; July at 72.42 cents, up 72 points; December at 74.61 cents, up 59 points. The trading volume is about 80,000 lots [2]. - **Important Information**: On March 27th, the purchase price of machine - picked new cotton in southern Xinjiang's Bazhou area is stable. US cotton - growing areas have different weather conditions. On the same day, the volume and open interest of cotton yarn futures decreased, prices fell, and the spot market was stable. Spinning mills' cotton yarn sales showed signs of weakness, and the spinning cost was rising [2]. - **Market Logic**: ICE US cotton futures rose, and the market focuses on the USDA's planting intention. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton is volatile, and the follow - up order increment needs to be observed [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the 05 contract, gradually roll over long positions below 15,300 yuan/ton to the 09 contract and control the position [2]. Group 2: Apples Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The apple market is in a state of partial - long and volatile. The market is cold, and the overall market is under pressure. The price may maintain a volatile trend in the short term, and the performance of the consumer side and changes in the delivery situation need to be focused on [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Market Review**: Apple futures prices declined, and the main contract was shifted. The closing price of the 2605 contract was 9,863 yuan/ton, down 1.04% [6]. - **Important Information**: The prices of apples in different regions are provided, such as the prices of different grades of apples in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu [6]. - **Market Logic**: There are few in -quiring and viewing customers in apple cold - storage areas. The market is cold, and the overall market is under pressure. High prices suppress consumption, and the arrival of seasonal fruits in April will suppress the upward space of futures prices. In April, there is a risk of "late spring cold" in apple - producing areas. The market is facing delivery disturbances in the short term [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a long - biased thinking for the 05 contract. Hold long positions below 10,000 yuan/ton [6]. Group 3: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The log market is in a volatile state. In the short term, the price may oscillate in the range of 790 - 810 yuan/cubic meter. In the medium term, external factors such as real - estate policies, New Zealand's shipping rhythm, and geopolitics need to be concerned [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Market Review**: Log futures prices declined, and the closing price of the main 2605 contract was 826.0 yuan/cubic meter, up 1.04% [8]. - **Important Information**: The spot prices of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu are provided. As of January 23rd, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs decreased by 3.11% to 2.49 million cubic meters, and the inventory of radiata pine decreased by 2.3% to 2.12 million cubic meters. The daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in 7 provinces and 13 ports in China decreased by 0.09 compared with last week [8]. - **Market Logic**: China's log supply is highly dependent on imports, with New Zealand as the main source. The port inventory shows the characteristics of "de - stocking before the Spring Festival and inventory accumulation after the Spring Festival". The import cost has increased, which strongly supports the futures price. The demand for logs mainly depends on the real - estate construction, and the real - estate industry is still in the adjustment period, which suppresses log consumption. Although infrastructure projects are starting in March and furniture export demand is improving marginally, it is difficult to offset the weakness of the real - estate market, showing a "north - weak and south - strong" differentiation [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 05 contract of logs is volatile [8].
农副期权早报-20260331
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 06:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural and sideline product options, including apple, cotton, jujube, egg, log, live hog, and sugar options. It presents market data, option factors, and offers corresponding trading strategies based on the analysis of each option [3][6][15][18] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Apple Options (AP) - **Market Data**: The latest price of the AP605 contract is 9863, down 127 or 1.27% from the previous day. The trading volume is 29,832 lots (down 8,866 lots), and the open interest is 51,151 lots (down 6,149 lots) [3] - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The trading volume of apple call options is 1,368 (down 97,373), and the open interest is 5,901 (up 488). The trading volume PCR is 0.48 (down 0.25), and the open interest PCR is 0.39 (down 0.01) [4] - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The pressure level is 10,000, and the support level is 7,000. The weighted implied volatility is 20.15915% (down 0.11%) [5] - **Market Analysis and Strategy**: The AP605 contract closed at 9,967 yuan yesterday, up 18 yuan or 0.18% from the previous day. The implied volatility of apple options fluctuates above the average of 0.2562. The open interest PCR of AP options is 0.4011, at the 6.12% level in the past year. No directional or volatility strategies are recommended [6][7] 3.2 Cotton Options (CF) - **Market Data**: The latest price of the CF605 contract is 15,385, up 0.03% from the previous day. The trading volume is 217,193 lots (down 19,525 lots), and the open interest is 515,084 lots (down 16,090 lots) [15] - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The trading volume of cotton call options is 111,900 (down 642), and the open interest is 328,652 (down 1,131). The trading volume PCR is 0.4 (up 0.04), and the open interest PCR is 0.82 (up 0.01) [16] - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The pressure level is 16,400, and the support level is 14,800. The weighted implied volatility is 18.89% (up 0.29%) [17] - **Market Analysis and Strategy**: The CF605 contract closed at 15,395 yuan yesterday, up 15 yuan or 0.09% from the previous day. The implied volatility of cotton options fluctuates above the average of 0.1455. The open interest PCR of CF options is 0.8033, at the 54.29% level in the past year. No directional strategy is recommended, and a strategy of selling call and put options is suggested to obtain time - value income [18][19] 3.3 Jujube Options (CJ) - **Market Data**: The latest price of the CJ605 contract is 8,775. The trading volume is 75,333 lots (up 19,713 lots), and the open interest is 90,597 lots (down 4,720 lots) [27] - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The trading volume of jujube call options is 4,492 (down 25,265), and the open interest is 19,735 (up 1,883). The trading volume PCR is 0.26 (down 0.14), and the open interest PCR is 0.21 (up 0.01) [28] - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The pressure level is 11,600, and the support level is 8,300. The weighted implied volatility is 24.47% (down 0.89%) [29] - **Market Analysis and Strategy**: The CJ605 contract closed at 8,870 yuan yesterday, up 25 yuan or 0.28% from the previous day. The implied volatility of jujube options fluctuates above the average of 0.2763. The open interest PCR of CJ options is 0.1947, at the 0.00% level in the past year. No directional strategy is recommended, and a strategy of selling call and put options is suggested to obtain time - value income and adjust positions dynamically [30][31] 3.4 Egg Options (JD) - **Market Data**: The latest price of the jd2605 contract is 3,453, down 1.53% from the previous day. The trading volume is 180,718 lots (up 104,961 lots), and the open interest is 155,927 lots (down 31,553 lots) [39] - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The trading volume of egg call options is 74,239 (down 46,629), and the open interest is 93,039 (up 186). The trading volume PCR is 0.49 (up 0.11), and the open interest PCR is 0.58 (up 0.01) [40] - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The pressure level is 4,000, and the support level is 3,200. The weighted implied volatility is 24.23% (down 1.03%) [41] - **Market Analysis and Strategy**: The jd2605 contract closed at 3,502 yuan yesterday, up 22 yuan or 0.63% from the previous day. The implied volatility of egg options fluctuates above the average of 0.2497. The open interest PCR of JD options is 0.5774, at the 76.73% level in the past year. No directional strategy is recommended, and a strategy of selling call and put options is suggested to obtain time - value and directional income and keep the delta of positions neutral [42][43] 3.5 Log Options (LG) - **Market Data**: The latest price of the lg2605 contract is 826, up 1.41% from the previous day. The trading volume is 5,467 lots (up 1,761 lots), and the open interest is 11,387 lots (up 24 lots) [51] - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The trading volume of log call options is 3,152 (up 869), and the open interest is 11,430 (down 84). The trading volume PCR is 0.41 (up 0.16), and the open interest PCR is 0.37 (down 0.01) [52] - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The pressure level is 950, and the support level is 725. The weighted implied volatility is 27.84% (up 0.45%) [53] - **Market Analysis and Strategy**: The lg2605 contract closed at 817.5 yuan yesterday, up 1 yuan or 0.12% from the previous day. The implied volatility of log options fluctuates above the average of 0.2186. The open interest PCR of LG options is 0.3773, at the 4.90% level in the past year. No directional or volatility strategies are recommended [54][55] 3.6 Live Hog Options (LH) - **Market Data**: The latest price of the lh2605 contract is 10,005, up 0.65%. The trading volume is 77,013 lots (up 89,319 lots), and the open interest is 202,586 lots (down 16,816 lots) [63] - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The trading volume of live hog call options is 59,771 (down 27,913), and the open interest is 146,160 (up 4,056). The trading volume PCR is 0.23 (down 0.04), and the open interest PCR is 0.21 (up 0.01) [64] - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The pressure level is 15,600, and the support level is 9,400. The weighted implied volatility is 45.51% (up 1.23%) [65] - **Market Analysis and Strategy**: The lh2605 contract closed at 9,965 yuan yesterday, up 45 yuan or 0.45% from the previous day. The implied volatility of live hog options fluctuates above the average of 0.2425. The open interest PCR of LH options is 0.2018, at the 0.82% level in the past year. A bear - spread strategy of buying put options is recommended for directional income, and no volatility strategy is recommended [66][67] 3.7 Sugar Options (SR) - **Market Data**: The latest price of the SR605 contract is 5,441, down 0.20%. The trading volume is 405,297 lots (up 147,961 lots), and the open interest is 304,083 lots (down 8,802 lots) [76] - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The trading volume of sugar call options is 225,255 (up 118,168), and the open interest is 341,244 (up 6,315). The trading volume PCR is 0.34 (up 0.03), and the open interest PCR is 0.42 (up 0.01) [77] - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The pressure level is 6,200, and the support level is 5,300. The weighted implied volatility is 19.12% (up 0.41%) [78] - **Market Analysis and Strategy**: The SR605 contract closed at 5,464 yuan yesterday, up 25 yuan or 0.45% from the previous day. The implied volatility of sugar options fluctuates above the average of 0.1219. The open interest PCR of SR options is 0.4136, at the 0.41% level in the past year. No directional strategy is recommended, and a strategy of selling call and put options is suggested to obtain time - value income and keep the delta of positions neutral [79][80]
反弹动能减弱,板块震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 05:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][7][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Cotton**: The global cotton supply-demand pattern is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season, with the northern hemisphere entering the key planting period. In China, there is a significant increase in consumption due to the expansion of downstream spindle capacity, and the inventory at the end of the year may still be tight. The medium - and long - term cotton price center is expected to continue to move up, but the short - term upside is limited by internal - external price differences and policy factors [2] - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar remains strong, and the domestic sugar is in a stage of inventory accumulation with higher - than - expected production increase. Under the pressure of oversupply, the continuous upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar weakens, but it has strong support below due to the Middle East situation [6][7] - **Pulp**: The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026, and the demand in China is expected to improve compared to last year. However, the port inventory in China remains high, and the short - term pulp price may be mainly in low - level consolidation [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The cotton 2605 contract closed at 15,385 yuan/ton yesterday, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.06%. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,656 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 16,823 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous day. - US cotton inspection: From March 20th to 26th, 2025/26, the US graded and inspected 0.37 million tons of cotton, with 82.2% meeting the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements. As of the same period, the cumulative graded inspection was 3.0544 million tons, with 81.7% meeting the requirements [1] Market Analysis - International: The Middle East conflict causes large fluctuations in oil prices, and the macro - level impact on cotton prices needs to be monitored. The global supply - demand pattern in the 26/27 season is expected to tighten. - Domestic: In the 25/26 season, China's cotton production increased significantly, but the consumption increase due to downstream spindle capacity expansion is obvious. The "Golden March and Silver April" peak season in the textile market has good expectations, and the commercial inventory is being depleted quickly. The domestic new crop is expected to reduce production, and the medium - and long - term cotton price center is expected to move up [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The short - term upside is limited by internal - external price differences and policy - issued quotas. Focus on the new - year target price policy, the reduction range of planting area, and possible reserve - releasing policies [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The sugar 2605 contract closed at 5,441 yuan/ton yesterday, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.42%. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,325 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. - Brazil's sugar production: In the first half of March, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 1.309 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 552,000 tons; the sugar production was 0.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7 million tons. From the 2025/26 season to the first half of March, the cumulative sugar production was 40.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 282,000 tons [4][5] Market Analysis - International: The raw sugar remains in a strong pattern. Due to the ongoing geopolitical conflict, the new - season sugar - making ratio in Brazil may further decrease, and the short - term external market is greatly affected by the international situation. - Domestic: The sugarcane harvesting progress is significantly delayed, the production increase is higher than expected, and sugar is still in the inventory accumulation stage with high industrial inventory. The domestic sugar import volume from January to February also increased significantly year - on - year [6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Under the pressure of oversupply, the continuous upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar weakens, but it has strong support below. Treat it with an oscillatory mindset in the short term [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The pulp 2605 contract closed at 5,182 yuan/ton yesterday, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.38%. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,190 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,835 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [7] Market Analysis - Supply: In the past two years, the overseas new production capacity has been limited, and major overseas hardwood pulp mills have announced production cuts and conversion plans. The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026. - Demand: In the past two years, a large amount of finished paper production capacity has been put into operation in China, but the terminal effective demand is insufficient. The raw material procurement of downstream paper mills is cautious. The port inventory in China remains at a historical high. In 2026, the paper production capacity is still expanding, and the demand for pulp raw materials is expected to increase marginally [9] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The pulp fundamentals remain weak, the port inventory is difficult to reduce, and the short - term pulp price may be mainly in low - level consolidation [9]
方正中期期货生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260331
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Sugar**: The global sugar surplus situation in the 2025/26 season has improved. The international raw sugar price has strengthened due to factors such as the high - price of Brazilian ethanol and the possible lower - than - expected sugar production in India. In China, the sugar production is expected to slow down as southern sugar mills start to shut down, and the domestic sugar market fundamentals are also improving. The Zhengzhou sugar futures may rise in a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [4]. - **Pulp**: The game between buyers and sellers in the wood pulp spot market continues. The downstream demand for finished paper is approaching the peak season, but the positive impact of seasonal demand fluctuations is not obvious. The cost - side support for pulp has increased, but the upward drive for pulp prices is limited in the short term. It is recommended to operate with a short - bias in the range [4][5]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The start - up rate of double - offset paper has rebounded after the Spring Festival, but the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The cost - side upward drive is not strong. It is expected to maintain range consolidation in the short term, and it is recommended to operate with a short - bias in the range [6][7]. - **Cotton**: The external market has limited new negative factors, and the domestic market is digesting the negative news of increased imports. The medium - term support for cotton prices remains, and the futures price is expected to enter a support range and return to a relatively strong shock. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [8]. - **Apple**: The decline in apple futures prices is mainly due to differences in the value of taking delivery. The supply - side support remains, but the consumption - side support is insufficient. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and it is recommended to return to a wait - and - see state [9]. - **Jujube**: The jujube futures price is in a low - level weak shock. The spot inventory is gradually reaching its seasonal peak and then declining. It is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points for the 2605 contract, and for long - position holders, it is recommended to buy protective put options at the same time. Cautious investors can hold a reverse spread of short 2605 and long 2609 [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures Strategy** - **Apple 2605**: Return to wait - and - see. The supply - side support remains, but the consumption support is insufficient. The futures price continues to fluctuate in a high - level range. The support range is 9000 - 9200, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11500 [18]. - **Jujube 2605**: Short - term buy on dips. The expected reduction in production may gradually be reflected in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory has begun to reach its peak and decline. The support range is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures Strategy** - **Sugar 2605**: Hold long positions cautiously. The international sugar supply surplus situation has improved. The southern sugar mills in China are starting to shut down, and the supply - demand fundamentals are improving, but the supply is still sufficient. The support range is 5250 - 5300, and the pressure range is 5600 - 5650 [18]. - **Pulp 2605**: Short on rallies. The rise in the outer - market price of broad - leaf pulp has driven the pulp futures to strengthen, but the peak - season demand for finished paper needs to be verified, and the improvement in the supply - demand situation of bleached softwood kraft pulp is limited. The support range is 5000 - 5100, and the pressure range is 5350 - 5400 [18]. - **Double - offset Paper 2605**: Range operation. The spot market is stable, but the demand has entered the off - season. Short - term attention should be paid to the support situation after the futures price further declines and the basis widens. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4250 - 4300 [18]. - **Cotton 2605**: Hold long positions cautiously. The significant increase in imported cotton and cotton yarn has put short - term pressure on the market, but the outer - market has stabilized and rebounded, and the medium - term upward trend of the futures price remains unchanged. The support range is 14900 - 15000, and the pressure range is 16300 - 16500 [18]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In January 2026, the export volume of fresh apples was about 99,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.14% and a year - on - year increase of 9.44%. In February, it was about 79,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.83% and a year - on - year increase of 15.96%. As of March 25, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 4.4179 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 266,400 tons. As of March 26, it was 3.8947 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 294,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 217,900 tons [19]. - **Spot Market Situation**: In the Shandong production area, the price of late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in stock is stable, and the trading volume in cold storage is average. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price is stable, and the cold - storage packaging volume for the Tomb - sweeping Festival is acceptable. In the sales area, the arrival of goods is stable, the overall sales speed is average, and the mainstream price is stable [19][20][21]. - **Jujube Market**: As of March 5, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,700 tons, a decrease of 117 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year increase of 7.39%. The downstream customers mainly purchase on demand, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is stable [22]. - **Sugar Market**: In the first half of March, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 29.67% year - on - year, the sugar - making ratio decreased by 25.27 percentage points year - on - year, and the sugar production decreased by 88.60% year - on - year. In India, the sugar - making work in the 2025/26 season in the state of Maharashtra is coming to an end. In Thailand, as of March 25, 2026, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume increased by 8.81% year - on - year, and the sugar production increased by 12.01% year - on - year. As of March 25, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped also decreased. India announced that the domestic sugar sales quota for April 2026 was 2.3 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the same period last year. As of March 30, 25/26 season in Guangxi, 37 sugar mills have shut down, with a shutdown capacity of 332,000 tons per day [24]. - **Pulp Market**: After the Spring Festival, Chinese buyers returned to the market. The price of South American BHK pulp increased by $10 per ton in February, and sellers announced another price increase of $20 per ton in March, which led to cautious waiting and watching by buyers. The terminal users' resistance sentiment intensified, the domestic market trading was weak, many factories shut down, and the port inventory increased by 205,000 tons [27]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: Last Thursday, the inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% compared with the previous Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points week - on - week. The industry's overall inventory - reduction speed decreased. This week, the start - up load rate of double - offset paper was 57.43%, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.67 percentage points week - on - week [28]. - **Cotton Market**: As of March 29, 2026, 1,100 cotton processing enterprises in the 2025 cotton year processed and carried out notarized inspection on cotton, with an inspection quantity of 33,712,814 bales and an inspection weight of 7.61 million tons. From March 20 to 26, 2026, the United States graded and inspected 3,700 tons of cotton in the 2025/26 season, and 82.2% of the lint met the delivery requirements of ICE cotton futures [29]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review** | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9863 | - 104 | - 1.04% | | Jujube 2605 | 8775 | - 95 | - 1.07% | | Sugar 2605 | 5441 | - 23 | - 0.42% | | Pulp 2605 | 5182 | - 20 | - 0.38% | | Cotton 2605 | 15385 | - 10 | - 0.06% | [30] - **Spot Market Review** | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5460 | 0 | - 720 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5180 | - 40 | - 1300 | | Double - offset Paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4350 | 0 | - 800 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 16823 | 9 | 1959 | [35] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation There is no text description of the basis situation, only relevant figure references are provided. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - monthly Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1100 | - 100 | 1006 | Oscillate strongly | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 5 - 9 | - 385 | - 35 | - 80 | Reverse spread on rallies | Wait - and - see | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 26 | - 3 | - 127 | Oscillate | Wait - and - see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 130 | 5 | 15 | Oscillate weakly | Short on rallies | [55] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation There is no text description of the futures position situation, only relevant figure references are provided. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Volume | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 4273 | 0 | - 2341 | | Sugar | 16862 | 520 | - 10548 | | Pulp | 188163 | 2601 | - 187102 | | Cotton | 12435 | 1 | 3160 | [87] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data There is no text description of the option - related data, only relevant figure references are provided.