每经AI快讯，当地时间1月8日，洲际交易所（ICE）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数下跌，原糖期货跌 0.13%报14.96美分/磅，棉花期货跌0.69%报64.40美分/磅，可可期货涨1.17%报5984.00美元/吨，咖啡期 货跌0.75%报372.65美分/磅。 ...

每经AI快讯，当地时间1月8日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数下跌，大豆 期货跌0.54%报1061.25美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货跌0.22%报445.75美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货持平于518.00美 分/蒲式耳。 ...

谷物和大豆期货周四涨跌互见，交易员等待美国最高法院对特朗普政府全球关税政策的裁决，同时关注 即将发布的关键联邦农业供需报告。 针对特朗普关税政策的裁决最早可能于周五公布，美国最高法院已将该日定为意见发布日。关税政策对 美国农业造成压力，而该行业正遭受大宗商品价格低迷、投入成本高企及全球供应过剩的三重打击。 芝加哥小麦期货一度上涨0.9%，触及两周高点。大豆期货小幅下跌，玉米期货则微幅上扬。 价格： 大豆下跌0.3%，至每蒲式耳10.635美元； 价格： 芝加哥时间11：10，小麦价格上涨0.8%，至每蒲式耳5.22美元； 大豆下跌0.3%，至每蒲式耳10.635美元； 芝加哥时间11：10，小麦价格上涨0.8%，至每蒲式耳5.22美元； 玉米上涨0.2%，至每蒲式耳4.4750美元。 责任编辑：李桐 谷物和大豆期货周四涨跌互见，交易员等待美国最高法院对特朗普政府全球关税政策的裁决，同时关注 即将发布的关键联邦农业供需报告。 针对特朗普关税政策的裁决最早可能于周五公布，美国最高法院已将该日定为意见发布日。关税政策对 美国农业造成压力，而该行业正遭受大宗商品价格低迷、投入成本高企及全球供应过剩的三重打击。 芝加哥 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean No.1: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - Market sentiment has ebbed, and commodities with large previous gains face profit - taking pressure. Different agricultural products have different market trends and influencing factors. Attention should be paid to policy, weather, export, and other aspects [2][3][4] Summary by Related Categories Bean No.1 - Bean No.1 futures main contract shows an adjustment trend with a reduction in positions. The domestic soybean spot price remains strong. The South American new - season soybean has a high - yield expectation, and short - term attention should be paid to policies and market guidance [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The USDA January report predicts the US 2025/26 soybean ending stocks and inventory as of December 1, 2025. Reuters predicts a slight increase in Brazilian and Argentine soybean production. South American weather is favorable, and the probability of ENSO neutral in the first quarter is 68%. Dalian soybean meal rebounds with US soybeans. Attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Market sentiment has ebbed, and soybean oil and palm oil show a trend of rising and then falling. Indonesia may raise palm oil export taxes, and the Malaysian palm oil market may continue to accumulate inventory. The supply - side risk of overseas soybeans is low, and the inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil continues, with a weak supply - demand situation [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed - related futures decline significantly today. The market has high expectations for the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China. If Canada changes its tariff policies on Chinese products, the export of Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil to China may resume. The domestic rapeseed - related futures are expected to be in a weak and volatile trend [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures continue to increase positions and rise. Some Northeast deep - processing enterprises slightly raise the purchase price. The overall inventory of ports, traders, and downstream is still low. The spot price of some ports is stable or slightly weak. The number of remaining vehicles at corn deep - processing enterprises in the morning continues to decrease. The recent auction of China Grain Reserves Corporation's corn spot has a high transaction rate and premium. The short - term trend is wide - range volatility [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures continue to fluctuate. Different data sources show different trends in the number of sows and newborn piglets. The fat - to - lean price difference is high, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is low. There is a large supply pressure before the Spring Festival, and the upward rebound space of the futures is limited. In the long - term, the pig price is likely to have a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The near - month egg futures contract strengthens again, showing a near - weak and far - strong pattern compared with yesterday. The spot price is stable or slightly strong. The monthly year - on - year decline in chick replenishment from September to December exceeds 10%, and the egg - laying hen inventory is expected to continue to decline in the first half of 2026. It is recommended to go long on the first - half - year 2026 futures contracts at low prices. The second - half - year contracts may have different trends [9]

今天郑棉大幅回调，持仓大幅减少，商品集体回落,郑棉近期上涨也是主要受到预期带动,下游情况总体一般。现货销售一 般,基差稳中偏弱。虽然新棉增产幅度较大,但商业库存同比偏低,销售进度偏快,也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡 季，但需求总体持稳。截至12月25号，累计加工皮棉669.7万吨，同比增加75.8万吨，较过去四年均值增加141.4万吨。国内商 业库存同比偏低,截至12月15号，全国棉花商业库存为534.9万吨，同比减少1.63万吨。国内新疆种植面积减少的政策落实,但 具体减少幅度并未提及。纺企对于原料需求仍存韧性，纺企成品库存不高，但下游订单需求一般。操作上多单离场暂时观望。 (白糖) | | | | Mir | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月08日 | | 棉花, | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ななな | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 20号胶 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 www.itf.com.cn ITG国贸期货 数据日报 ----- 20/21 ----- 21/22 ------22/23 ------23/24 24/25 25/26 RM1-5 1000 258 11 800 价差数据 豆粕-菜粕 656 36 现货价差(广东) 200 豆粕-菜粕 392 6 盘面价差(主力) 07/27 08/22 10/22 10/23 11/23 12/24 01/24 02/24 升贴水-连续月 产地 美元兑人民币汇率 涨跌 盘面榨利(元/吨) (美分/蒲) 157. 00 品显 6. 9594 158 0 2025年大豆CNF升贴水走势图-连续月 (美分/蒲式耳) 2025年进口大亨盘面毛利(元/吨) 一巴西2月 一 巴西3月 巴西1月 ====== 巴西4月 · 巴西1月 巴西2月 一巴西3月 ===== 巴西4月 ----- 巴西8月 ----- 巴西6月 ----- 巴西7月 ----- 巴西8月 ==== 巴西6月 ====== 巴西7月 ====== 巴西5月 ==== 巴西5月 400 250 国际数据 200 2 ...

农产品日报 | 2026-01-08 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2811元/吨，较前日变动+35元/吨，幅度+1.26%；菜粕2605合约2419元/吨，较前 日变动+29元/吨，幅度+1.21%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3140元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差 M05+329，较前日变动-5；江苏地区豆粕现货3110元/吨，较前日变动+40元/吨，现货基差M05+299，较前日变动 +5；广东地区豆粕现货价格3140元/吨，较前日变动跌+30元/吨，现货基差M05+329，较前日变动-5。福建地区菜 粕现货价格2620元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差RM05+201，较前日变动-9。 近期市场资讯，巴西国家商品供应公司作物进展报告称，截止2026年1月3日，巴西2025/26年度大豆播种进度98.2%， 高于一周前的97.9%和五年同期均值97.6%，但低于去年同期的98.5%；收获进度0.1%，低于去年同期的0.2%和五 年同期均值0.6%。 市场分析 当前下游油厂大豆和豆粕库存均维持高位，但由于偏高的进口成本和一季度偏少的到港，使得市场对于近月合约 的预 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [3][5] 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean market is currently characterized by tight supply and potential demand, with strong short - term upward price momentum due to factors such as traders' reluctance to sell, tight supply of high - protein soybeans, active state reserve auctions, and pre - Spring Festival stocking demand. However, high prices may suppress consumption, and price corrections should be watched out for after the pre - holiday stocking period [2] - The peanut market has an increase in supply, but due to farmers' reluctance to sell and middlemen's price - holding mentality, the overall market trading activity is low. The downstream oil mills' purchase prices are stable but with strict acceptance standards, and food processing enterprises mainly replenish inventory based on rigid demand. Attention should be paid to the downstream stocking rhythm before the Spring Festival [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis - **Futures**: The closing price of the soybean No. 1 2605 contract yesterday was 4404.00 yuan/ton, up 128.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a change of +2.99% [1] - **Spot**: The basis of edible soybean spot is A05 - 4, down 88 from the previous day, a change of 32.14%. Northeast soybean spot prices continued to strengthen yesterday, generally up 20 to 40 yuan/ton. Specific spot prices in different regions of Heilongjiang are provided [1] Strategy - The investment strategy is neutral [3] Peanut Market Analysis - **Futures**: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract yesterday was 8072.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a change of +0.12% [3] - **Spot**: The average spot price of peanuts was 8018.00 yuan/ton, down 18.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a change of - 0.22%. The spot basis was PK03 - 1072.00, down 10.00 from the previous day, a change of +0.94%. National average prices for various types of peanuts and oil mills' purchase prices are provided [3] Strategy - The investment strategy is neutral [5]

农产品日报 | 2026-01-08 宏观情绪好转，板块整体偏强 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约15035元/吨，较前一日变动+180元/吨，幅度+1.21%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆 到厂价15574元/吨，较前一日变动+87元/吨，现货基差CF05+539，较前一日变动-93；3128B棉全国均价15784元/ 吨，较前一日变动+73元/吨，现货基差CF05+749，较前一日变动-107。 近期市场资讯，根据巴西农业部下属的国家商品供应公司CONAB统计，截至1月3日巴西2025/26年度棉花种植完成 31.2%，环比增加6.1个百分点，同比快0.1个百分点，较近三年均值慢0.3个百分点。巴西棉种植进度加快，同比小 幅领先，主要是马托格罗索州进度加快。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡上行，收于万五关口之上。国际方面，12月USDA对于全球棉花供需数据调整不大，25/26年度 全球棉花产需双减，期末库存微幅增加。美棉产量继续小幅调增，经过两个月的调整后美棉累库压力明显加大。 当前北半球新棉集中上市，阶段性供应压力较大，而全球纺织终端消费仍疲软，美棉出口签约进度整体仍偏慢， 短 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of soybean meal futures is expected to be oscillating strongly, and the medium - term is expected to be oscillating. The short - and medium - term prices of palm oil and soybean oil futures are expected to be oscillating, and the intraday performance is expected to be oscillating weakly [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Intraday view is oscillating strongly, medium - term view is oscillating, and reference view is oscillating strongly [5] - **Core Logic**: China's purchase of US soybeans boosts US soybean futures prices, but the pressure of Brazil's high - yield still exists. The market focuses on the US Department of Agriculture report next Monday. The short - term rebound space of US soybean futures prices is limited. Domestic oil mills still have soybean meal inventory pressure. After New Year's Day, replenishment by traders and feed mills drives up trading volume. In the short term, soybean meal is boosted by both short - term supply shortage and long - term cost support, so the futures price is oscillating strongly [5] 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and reference view is oscillating weakly [7] - **Core Logic**: BMD crude palm oil fluctuates in a narrow range. Supported by the rebound of the entire oil and fat sector and the weakening of the ringgit, the decline in crude oil limits the increase; US soybean oil rises. On the one hand, Indonesia's biodiesel policy is less than expected. On the other hand, the market expects that next week's Malaysian palm report may further push up Malaysian palm inventory. Palm oil faces the greatest inventory pressure, and the domestic palm oil inventory continues to rise, highlighting the pressure on palm oil spot and futures prices. In the short term, the palm oil futures price is weaker than other oils and fats and should be treated as oscillating weakly [7] 3.3 Other Information - For soybean meal 2605, factors affecting the price include import soybean cost, import arrival rhythm, oil mill start - up rhythm, and inventory pressure. For soybean oil 2605, factors include US soybean cost support, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory. For palm 2605, factors include Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesia's biodiesel and export policies, EU - related policy changes, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6]