农产品日报 | 2026-03-03 持续反弹驱动不足，板块整体承压运行 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约15225元/吨，较前一日变动-170元/吨，幅度-1.10%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价16485元/吨，现货基差CF05+1260；3128B棉全国均价16633元/吨，现货基差CF05+1408。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部（USDA）报告，2月20日至2月26日，美国2025/26年度棉花分级检验1.12万吨，71.2% 的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡下跌。国际方面，USDA展望论坛最新报告显示，2026/27年度全球棉花总产2526万吨，同比减 少3.2%；全球消费量2615万吨，同比增加1.2%；新年度全球期末库存1550万吨，同比减少5.2%。USDA展望预期 偏多，新年度全球棉市供需格局有望收紧，推动外盘强势收复65美分/磅整数关口。后续需持续关注新季供应方面 的题材。国内方面，节后国内纺织市场陆续复工复产，市场交易有望逐步恢复，短期需关注旺季下游订单表现。 中长期看，下游纱锭产能扩张带来棉花消耗提高，本年度国内预计维持高 ...

| 期货价格(主力日收盘 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 元/吨 | 2826 | 2833 | -7 | -0. 25% | | | 现货价格 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 全国均价 | 元/吨 | 3162. 29 | 3163. 14 | -0. 85 | -0. 03% | | | 张家港 | 元/吨 | 3080 | 3100 | -20 | -0. 65% | | | 杂粕现货均价 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 花生粕 | 元/吨 | 3237.5 | 3237.5 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 葵花粕 | 元/吨 | 2281. 25 | 2287.5 | -6. 25 | -0. 27% | | | 芝麻粕 | 元/吨 | 3500 | 3500 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 棕榈粕 | 元/吨 | 1433. 33 | 1433. 33 | 0 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2026 年 3 月 2 日 【粕类日报】宏观影响增加 粕类震荡运行 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： 研究所 农产品研发报告 Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2026/3/2 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 3008 | 2 | 天津 | 290 | 310 | -20 | | 东莞 | 0 5 | 2826 | - 7 | | 210 | 220 | -10 | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 2952 | 1 | | 190 | 200 | -10 | | | | | | 日照 | 210 | 220 | -10 | | 南通 | 0 1 | 2323 | 2 4 | | 205 | ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2026 年 3 月 2 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2026/3/2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2322 | 12 | 0.52% | 1,358 | 19.65% | 5,147 | 7.68% | | C2605 | | 2360 | 18 | 0.76% | 525,106 | -4.16% | 1,475,478 | 4.13% | | C2509 | | 2375 | 14 | 0.59% | 20,533 | -10.59% | 109,417 | 7.39% | | CS2601 | | 2663 | 21 | 0.79% | 27 | -52.63% | 105 | 16.67% | | CS2605 | | 2667 | 9 | ...

Report Overview 1. Report Date - The report is dated March 2, 2026 [1] 2. Reported Industries - The report covers the soft commodities industry, including sugar, cotton, apples, and jujubes [3][17][23][32] Sugar Market 1. Core View - Domestic sugar supply surplus suppresses sugar prices, and the external raw sugar is under pressure at the 14 - cent support level. The market has fully reflected the weak fundamentals and is in a bottom - range oscillation, lacking short - term upward drivers [3] 2. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Prices**: SR01 closed at 5480 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.29% and a weekly increase of 2.60%. SB closed at 13.92 cents/pound with a daily decrease of 0.29% and a weekly decrease of 0.64% [4] - **Price Spreads**: SR01 - 05 spread was 140 yuan/ton, unchanged on the day and up 10 yuan/ton for the week. SR05 - 09 spread was - 11 yuan/ton, unchanged both daily and weekly [4] - **Basis**: On February 27, 2026, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was - 114 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton daily and 77 yuan/ton weekly [12] - **Import Prices**: On March 2, 2026, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 3964 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton daily and up 107 yuan/ton weekly. The out - of - quota price was 5018 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton daily and up 140 yuan/ton weekly [15] Cotton Market 1. Core View - The expectation of tight domestic supply and demand this year remains unchanged. The current price difference between domestic and foreign cotton exerts pressure on the upper limit of cotton prices. The recent escalation of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran has limited impact on the cotton market fundamentals, but the sharp rise in crude oil may support US cotton due to the increase in substitute prices. Attention should be paid to the subsequent adjustment of US foreign trade policies and the export progress of US cotton [17] 2. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Prices**: Cotton 01 closed at 15630 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton or 0.6%. Cotton 05 closed at 15225 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton or 1.1% [18] - **Price Spreads**: The cotton 01 - 05 spread was 330 yuan/ton, unchanged on the day. The cotton basis was 1236 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan/ton [18] Apple Market 1. Core View - After the holiday, the demand for apples weakens, the transaction in the producing areas is divided, and the inventory depletion speed slows down. If the demand continues to weaken, the futures price may continue to decline. If the trading logic returns to the shortage of delivery products, the futures price may rise again [23] 2. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Prices**: AP01 closed at 8470 yuan/ton, up 1.85% daily and 2.04% weekly. AP05 closed at 9896 yuan/ton, up 1.39% daily and 0.62% weekly [24] - **Price Spreads**: AP01 - 05 spread was - 1444 yuan/ton, unchanged on the day and down 5.87% weekly [24] Jujube Market 1. Core View - The jujube production in the 2025/2026 season has been determined, and the market focus has shifted to the change in demand. The overall supply - demand pattern of domestic jujubes is loose, and the short - term jujube price will still face pressure and may maintain a low - level oscillation [32] 2. Price Spread Data - **Futures Price Spreads**: The jujube futures 01 - 05 spread showed a certain range of fluctuations in historical data, and similar situations exist for the 05 - 09 and 09 - 01 spreads [33][35]

农产品团队 软商品板块 白糖 【市场逻辑】 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015153 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518793 | | 作者： | 王亮亮 | 从业资格证号： F03096306 投资咨询证号： Z0017427 联系方式： 010-68578697 作者： 辛旋 | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | --- | --- | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年03月01日星期日 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 节后首周，郑糖主力 ...

豆粕：暂以区间行情对待 关注阿根廷降雨及美生柴落地内容 | 期货价格(主力日收盘 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 元/吨 | 2833 | 2834 | -1 | -0. 04% | | | 现货价格 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 全国均价 | 元/吨 | 3177. 14 | 3190. 57 | -13.43 | -0. 42% | | | 张家港 | 元/吨 | 3100 | 3100 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 杂粕现货均价 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 間趋势图 | | 花生粕 | 元/吨 | 3237.5 | 3237.5 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 葵花粕 | 元/吨 | 2316. 25 | 2322. 5 | -6. 25 | -0. 27% | | | 芝麻粕 | 元/吨 | 3500 | 3500 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 棕榈粕 | 元/吨 ...

2026年03月01日 国泰君安期货研究周报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：基本面矛盾匮乏，油价扰动为主 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：上下驱动均有限，区间操作 | 2 | | 豆粕：地缘事件影响市场情绪，或稳中偏强 | 8 | | 豆一：关注两会政策情绪，或稳中偏强 | 8 | | 白糖：区间整理为主 | 14 | | 棉花：稳步上涨20260301 | 21 | | 生猪：进入被动累库阶段，现货仍需寻底 | 28 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 03 月 01 日 棕榈油：基本面矛盾匮乏，油价扰动为主 豆油：上下驱动均有限，区间操作 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：假期前随着宏观退潮、地缘缓和、产地出口放缓及节前避险情绪，棕榈油在前高位置成功受 阻回落至 8800 一线。节后地缘风险溢价抬升国际油价，基本面逻辑几乎延续节前，能提供的交易矛盾有 限，棕榈油 05 合约周涨 0.34%。 豆油： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Next week (March 2 - March 6, 2026), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to be stable with a slight upward trend. For soybean meal, the cost - side US soybean futures prices and Brazilian soybean premium quotes are stable with a slight upward trend. For soybeans, attention should be paid to market sentiment fluctuations such as policy sentiment (Two Sessions) and rumors of state reserve sales. Additionally, geopolitical events in the Middle East during the weekend may affect market sentiment [8]. 3. Summary by Related Contents US Soybean Market - Last week (February 23 - February 27, 2026), US soybean futures prices rose slightly. Bullish factors included the easing of US tariff policies and the strong performance of US soybean oil. Bearish factors were the uncertainty of US tariff policies and concerns about China's demand for US soybeans. As of February 27, the weekly increase of the main US soybean May contract was 1.41%, and that of the main US soybean meal May contract was 1.85% [2]. - In the week of February 19, 2026, the net sales of US soybeans decreased month - on - month. The export shipments of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season were about 810,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37% and a year - on - year decrease of about 16%. The cumulative export shipments were about 25.03 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 32%. The weekly net sales in the current season (2025/26) were about 410,000 tons, and in the next season (2026/27) were 0 tons, with a total of about 410,000 tons (compared to about 866,000 tons in the previous week). The weekly net sales to China in the current crop year were about 75,000 tons, and the cumulative sales were about 10.66 million tons [3]. Brazilian Soybean Market - As of the week of February 28, 2026, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for May 2026 delivery decreased slightly week - on - week, while the average import cost increased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [3]. - As of the week of February 19, 2026, the harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 30%, compared to 39% in the same period last year, the lowest level since the 2020/21 season. Reasons included late sowing, long crop growth cycles, and rainfall during the harvest period. In Rio Grande do Sul, rainfall was uneven, and the soybean harvest still faced the risk of poor yields [3]. - According to the February 28 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (March 1 - March 15, 2026), the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil was uneven and the temperature was high. The precipitation in Mato Grosso was normal, while that in other main producing areas was low. In Argentina, the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas was slightly low, and the temperature was slightly high or normal except for a low - temperature period around March 6. The current weather impact on South American production areas was slightly bullish [5]. Domestic Soybean Meal Market - Last week (February 24 - February 27, 2026), domestic soybean meal futures prices "first fell and then rose, with the center of gravity moving up". The cost - side support came from the stable and slightly upward trend of US soybeans and Brazilian premiums, while the uncertainty of Sino - US trade events caused disturbances. The weekly increase of the main soybean meal May contract was 1.18% [3]. - The domestic soybean meal spot price rose slightly, and the spot trading, crushing, etc. rebounded slightly after the Spring Festival holiday. The average daily trading volume of soybean meal of mainstream oil mills was about 44,000 tons, an increase from the pre - holiday week. The average daily pickup volume of main oil mills decreased to about 107,000 tons from the previous week. The average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) decreased to about 275 yuan/ton from the previous week. The inventory of soybean meal of mainstream oil mills increased slightly week - on - week and significantly year - on - year, reaching about 770,000 tons. The weekly soybean crushing volume of 125 oil mills increased to about 590,000 tons, and the operating rate increased to about 16%. It is expected to reach about 1.89 million tons next week, with an operating rate of 52% [6]. Domestic Soybean Market - Last week (February 24 - February 27, 2026), domestic soybean futures prices "first fell and then rose, with the center of gravity moving up". The spot price of soybeans in the Northeast increased in compensation, but the trading volume was small. The futures price remained strong due to the overall sentiment of the soybean market and the absence of bearish factors. The weekly increase of the main soybean May contract was 0.73% [3]. - The domestic soybean spot price was stable with a slight upward trend. The purchase price of clean soybeans in some Northeast regions increased by 160 yuan/ton, that in the Inner Pass remained the same as the previous week, and the selling price in the sales areas increased by 40 yuan/ton. The spot price in the Northeast increased in compensation, but the trading volume was small. Farmers were expected to sell their grain after the Lantern Festival. The sales areas adjusted prices following the production areas, but the trading volume was limited. The resumption time of soybean product factories was inconsistent, and the raw material inventory purchased before the Spring Festival had not been consumed. The centralized start of schools in March may boost the demand for soybean products [7].

农产品日报（2026 年 2 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周五，玉米近月 | 2603 | 合约领涨，5 | 月和 | 7 | 月合约跟涨。本周，玉米持仓增加，玉 | 米及淀粉主力合约期价增仓上行，期现延续强势预期。截至 | 2 | 月 | 26 | 日，全国玉 | | 米周度均价 | 2340 | 元/吨，较上周价格上涨 | 7 | 元/吨。分地区看，东北玉米价格偏 | 强运行，现货报价较春节前上涨 | 10-30 | 元/吨。春节前及春节后期货市场均偏强 | | | | | 玉米 | 震荡偏强 | 运行，对现货市场有一定的支撑作用，此外春节后东北部分深加工收购价格也高 | 于节前。华北地区玉米价格先涨后稳。基层粮点大部分从正月初八开始收购，但 | | | | | | | | | 农户售粮尚未完全恢复。技术上，玉米主力 | 2605 | 合约冲击 | 2350 | 整数关口，期价 | 能否突破前高存在不 ...