农产品日报 | 2026-03-05 需求略显疲软，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2829元/吨，较前日变动-7元/吨，幅度-0.25%；菜粕2605合约2303元/吨，较前日 变动-7元/吨，幅度-0.30%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3100元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差M05+271， 较前日变动-3；江苏地区豆粕现货2990元/吨，较前日变动-30元/吨，现货基差M05+161，较前日变动-23；广东地 区豆粕现货价格3020元/吨，较前日变动跌-20元/吨，现货基差M05+191，较前日变动-13。福建地区菜粕现货价格 2380元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差RM05+77，较前日变动+7。 近期市场资讯，巴西国家商品供应公司作物进展报告显示，截至2月28日，巴西2025/26年度大豆收获进度41.7%， 一周前修正为31.9%，低于去年同期的48.4%，高于五年同期均值38.4%。StoneX发布报告，预计2025/26年度巴西 大豆产量1.778亿吨，较此前预测的1.816亿吨下调380万吨或2.09%。 市场分析 近期宏观事件 ...

农产品日报 | 2026-02-25 油厂开机缓慢恢复，豆粕维持震荡运行 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2781元/吨，较前日变动-19元/吨，幅度-0.68%；菜粕2605合约2290元/吨，较前 日变动-19元/吨，幅度-0.82%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3170元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M05+389， 较前日变动+19；江苏地区豆粕现货3050元/吨，较前日变动-20元/吨，现货基差M05+269，较前日变动-1；广东地 区豆粕现货价格3050元/吨，较前日变动跌-10元/吨，现货基差M05+269，较前日变动+9。福建地区菜粕现货价格 2420元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差RM05+130，较前日变动+19。 近期市场资讯，农业咨询机构AgRural发布报告显示，截至上周四，巴西农户2025/26年度大豆收割进度完成30%， 较之前一周推进9%，但进度落后于去年同期的39%。巴西对外贸易秘书处公布的出口数据显示，巴西2月前三周出 口大豆408.5万吨，日均出口量为31.4万吨，较上年2月全月的日均出口量32.1万吨减少2%。美国农业部公布 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the Spring Festival holiday, the cotton futures price soared, the hog price plummeted, the palm oil rebounded at a low level but the rebound space was limited, and the soybean meal adjusted at a high level. The sugar rebounded weakly, and the eggs showed a pattern of near - strong and far - weak [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - After the Spring Festival, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract soared above 15,000, and the market will be strong in the future. The hog price dropped sharply due to strong supply and weak demand, and the market will be weak. The palm oil rebounded at a low level, but the decline has not been reversed, and the market may fluctuate weakly [1] 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Cotton - The main 2605 contract of cotton soared after the festival, driven by the rebound of US cotton and the expected growth of domestic demand. The planting area of Xinjiang cotton in 2026 is expected to decline, and the "Golden March and Silver April" consumption season is coming. The long positions of the main 2605 contract increased significantly, breaking through 15,000. The strategy is to go long at a low position with a light position, with support at 15,000 - 15,100 [2] 3.2.2 Hog - The main 2605 contract of hog gapped down and fell sharply on the first trading day after the Spring Festival due to strong supply and weak demand. After the festival, the supply increased and the demand entered the off - season. The contract price hit a new low, and the strategy is to short at a high position, with resistance at 11,405 - 11,465 [3] 3.2.3 Soybean Meal - The main 2605 contract of soybean meal fell from a high level due to profit - taking by long positions and the adjustment of the US soybean in the external market. The supply pressure of soybean meal still exists, and the contract price encountered resistance at the upper edge of the trading range of 2700 - 2800. The strategy is to close long positions and wait for opportunities [5] 3.2.4 Palm Oil - The main 2605 contract of palm oil rebounded at a low level, driven by the rebound of Malaysian palm oil and the strength of US soybean oil during the festival. However, the export data of Malaysian palm oil is weak, and the domestic inventory is high. The contract price is in a rebound within a downward trend, and the strategy is to short at a high position with a light position [8] 3.2.5 Sugar - The main 2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar rebounded after the festival, driven by the rebound of the international raw sugar price. However, the new sugar listing pressure still exists, and the contract price rebounded weakly. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading [11] 3.2.6 Eggs - Each contract of eggs shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The main 2604 contract continued to rise, but the increase was limited due to the decline in post - festival consumption. The strategy is to reduce long positions [12][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term volatility**: For soymeal, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil. Soymeal is affected by China's potential increase in US soybean purchases, US biodiesel expectations, and Argentina's drought; rapeseed meal sees improved import supply; rapeseed oil's tight - supply situation in South China is relieved to some extent [2][5][8]. - **Short - term adjustment**: For palm oil and soybean oil. Palm oil lacks new stimuli and faces potential inventory pressure; soybean oil has sufficient supply and weakening spot - market trading [2][11]. - **Oscillatory adjustment**: For cotton. Affected by external commodity markets, the US dollar index, and domestic consumption off - season, but has long - term positive expectations [2][15]. - **Pressured operation**: For red dates. High - inventory de - stocking may drive short - term rebounds, but the overall pattern is supply - demand loose [2][18]. - **Oscillatory weakness**: For live pigs. In a weak supply - demand pattern, near - month contracts are prone to decline, and far - month contracts lack a basis for upward trends [2][20]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal - **Price data**: Futures price (main contract daily close) is 2735 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 0.15% from the previous day; national average spot price is 3159.14 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - **Supply and demand**: China may increase US soybean purchases, but domestic Q1 supply is sufficient. Argentina's drought persists, so be cautious about shorting [2][5]. - **International situation**: In 2026, Brazil's soybean export in February is estimated at 11.42 million tons, up 17.4% year - on - year; in January, it was 2.44 million tons, a record high for the same period. Argentina's farmers' new - season soybean sales pace accelerated in the fourth week of 2026 [4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price data**: Futures price (main contract daily close) is 2239 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day; national average spot price is 2562.63 yuan/ton, unchanged [6]. - **Supply and demand**: The first batch of Australian rapeseeds entered the press, and coastal oil mills' rapeseed meal inventory ended the zero - state. China may purchase 3 ships of Canadian rapeseeds for April - May shipment, improving import supply [2][8]. Palm Oil - **Price data**: Futures price (main contract daily close) is 9026 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan or 0.18% from the previous day; national average price is 9080 yuan/ton, unchanged [9]. - **Supply and demand**: US - Iran meeting led to lower crude oil prices. Palm oil's previous positive factors have been digested, and the upcoming release of Malaysia's January inventory and large domestic February imports may cause short - term inventory pressure [2][11]. Cotton - **Price data**: Futures prices of various contracts (CF2603, CF2605, etc.) show declines; the spot price of CCIndex (3218B) is 16025 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan or 0.08% [12]. - **Supply and demand**: Internationally, Brazil and Turkey may reduce cotton planting areas and yields. Domestically, new - cotton processing is almost complete, inventory is being depleted, import pressure is realized, and demand is weakening during the off - season [13][14][15]. Red Dates - **Price data**: Futures prices of various contracts (CJ2603, CJ2605, etc.) decline; spot prices in various regions are mostly stable [16]. - **Supply and demand**: The spot market is stable. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises decreased by 1255 tons week - on - week, and high - inventory de - stocking may drive short - term rebounds [17][18]. Live Pigs - **Price data**: Futures prices of various contracts (lh2603, lh2605, etc.) decline; the national average slaughter price is 12060 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 0.50% [19]. - **Supply and demand**: In January, the breeding side slightly over - completed the plan. In February, the planned slaughter may decrease, but the daily - average pressure may increase. Demand is increasing before the festival, but the far - month contracts lack an upward basis due to poor capacity de - stocking [20].

Group 1: Agricultural Policy and Market Dynamics - The central government's first document of the year emphasizes the development of the agricultural sector, particularly focusing on grain and oil industries, and the construction of agricultural product futures markets [1] - Policies are aimed at consolidating and enhancing grain production capacity, ensuring smooth production and sales connections, and providing multi-faceted support for agricultural products [7][10] - The integration of agricultural futures markets into the agricultural supply chain enhances price discovery and risk management, contributing to the stable operation of the grain and oil industries [1][4] Group 2: Grain Production and Farmer Support - Farmers express increased confidence in grain production due to government policies such as minimum purchase prices and insurance against natural disasters [2][3] - The implementation of producer subsidies and insurance policies has significantly improved farmers' income security, particularly in major grain-producing regions [3][9] - The current state of the grain market reflects a positive outlook with ample supply and stable prices, attributed to effective agricultural policies [4][5] Group 3: Soybean Industry Development - The central document highlights the importance of the soybean industry for agricultural development and food security, focusing on capacity enhancement and smooth production-sales connections [7][10] - Policies are designed to stabilize subsidies and upgrade insurance, which directly benefits soybean farmers and enhances their income potential [9][10] - The development of the soybean industry is seen as crucial for ensuring national oil security and supporting rural revitalization [9][10][11] Group 4: Peanut Industry Growth - The peanut industry is recognized as a vital sector for farmers' income and rural revitalization, with government policies aimed at expanding production and enhancing value chains [12][13] - The establishment of a complete peanut industry chain, supported by futures markets, has led to significant economic development in key production areas [14][15] - The potential for expanding peanut cultivation is substantial, driven by favorable policies and market conditions, positioning peanuts as a key player in agricultural modernization [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term decline**: For soybean meal, due to sufficient supply in the first quarter in China and potential rebound space limited, short - term decline is expected. For rapeseed meal, with improved supply and uncertain trade policies, short - term decline is likely [1][4]. - **Short - term adjustment**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to have short - term adjustments. Palm oil is affected by inventory expectations and market sentiment; soybean oil is impacted by increased US soybean procurement; rapeseed oil is influenced by improved import supply [1]. - **Oscillatory adjustment**: Cotton is in an oscillatory adjustment state. The US cotton market is under pressure, and the domestic cotton market has weak upward drive before the Spring Festival but has strong expectations in the medium - long term [1][13]. - **Pressured operation**: Red dates' spot market is flat, and although high - inventory destocking may drive short - term rebounds, the overall pattern is pressured [1][16]. - **Oscillatory and weak**: For live pigs, in the context of supply - demand balance, near - month contracts are prone to fall, and far - month contracts lack a basis for upward trends but have opportunities for phased long - positions [1][18]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Price Information**: Futures price (main contract daily close) is 2731 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.29% from the previous day. Spot prices show a decline, with the national average price at 3159.43 yuan/ton, down 9.14 yuan or - 0.29% [2]. - **Market Situation**: China plans to increase US soybean procurement, and Argentina's drought continues. The domestic supply in the first quarter is sufficient, and the rebound space may be limited. Attention should be paid to Argentina's rainfall in February [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Information**: Futures price (main contract daily close) is 2238 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or - 0.40% from the previous day. The national average spot price remains unchanged at 2562.63 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Situation**: The supply situation has improved with the entry of Australian seeds into crushing and the purchase of Canadian rapeseeds. However, the stability of Sino - Canadian trade policies needs to be monitored. Import recovery calls for cautious bullish views [1][7]. Palm Oil - **Price Information**: Futures price (main contract daily close) is 9042 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan or - 1.05% from the previous day. The national average price is 9080 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan or - 0.66% [8]. - **Market Situation**: Canadian rapeseed imports have returned to normal, and palm oil prices fell yesterday. Near the Spring Festival, trading is cautious. The market estimates the end - of - January palm oil inventory in Malaysia to be between 2.89 - 2.91 million tons, with a slight inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the inventory estimate and the US - Iran situation [1][9]. Cotton - **Price Information**: Futures prices of different contracts show a downward trend, such as CF2603 at 14670 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan or - 0.54%. The spot price of CCIndex (3218B) is 16012 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.06% [10]. - **Market Situation**: The US cotton market is under pressure from external commodities and a strong US dollar. The domestic new cotton processing is basically completed, raw material inventory is being destocked, and demand is weakening. Before the Spring Festival, the upward drive is weak, but there are strong expectations in the medium - long term [1][13]. Red Dates - **Price Information**: Futures prices of different contracts decline, such as CJ2603 at 8590 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan or - 1.66%. Spot prices remain stable [14]. - **Market Situation**: The spot market is flat. With the peak of new product listing and the arrival of the consumption season, the futures market fluctuates more. High - inventory destocking may drive short - term rebounds, but the overall pattern is pressured [1][16]. Live Pigs - **Price Information**: Futures prices of different contracts decline, such as Ih2603 at 10995 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan or - 1.39%. The national average slaughter price is 12000 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or - 0.99% [17]. - **Market Situation**: In February, the supply - demand situation is strong, but price rebounds in some areas may not be sustainable. Near - month contracts are prone to fall, and far - month contracts lack a basis for upward trends but have phased opportunities [1][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term decline. Brazil is in the early stage of soybean harvest, with expected record - high production. US soybeans fell due to export decline expectations, and domestic soybean meal continued to decline with inventory accumulation. However, the spot price rose slightly, and the basis strengthened. Be cautious about further shorting, and pay attention to February rainfall in Argentine soybean regions [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term adjustment. The entry of the first batch of Australian rapeseeds into crushing and stable Sino - Canadian trade reduced market bullish sentiment. Coastal oil mill rapeseed meal inventory broke the previous zero state, and the decline in soybean meal further expanded the decline of rapeseed meal. It shows a second - dip trend in the short term. Focus on subsequent rapeseed procurement and US - Canada trade progress [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term adjustment. Indonesia's plan to ban the export of used cooking oil and palm waste supported palm oil prices, but the January Malaysian palm oil export data was average, with a risk of inventory accumulation in January. Be cautious about going long, and pay attention to January Malaysian palm oil inventory estimates and the US - Iran situation [1][9]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term adjustment. Brazil's soybean harvest is in the early stage, with expected production increase, which is bearish for the market. Coupled with the weakening of crude oil, soybean oil continued to decline slightly. Pay attention to the Malaysian palm oil situation and Argentine weather [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term adjustment. The crushing of Australian rapeseeds in China alleviated the tight supply in South China, but downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the basis has weakened. The Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade policy is unclear. Rapeseed oil futures prices rebounded slightly following palm oil. Focus on rapeseed imports and US - Canada trade progress [1]. - **Cotton**: Oscillatory adjustment. The US cotton market declined due to external commodities and a stronger US dollar. It has been in low - level consolidation since 2025, and the new - cotton narrative in 2026 is expected to start after the first quarter. In China, new - cotton processing is basically completed, and raw - material inventory is being depleted at a moderate pace. The import side faces price - difference pressure, and domestic demand is in a weakening stage. In the short term, the upward drive is weak, but there is a strong expectation in the medium - long term. Continuously monitor the linkage between domestic and foreign cotton and the inventory depletion situation in the first half of the year [1][13]. - **Red Dates**: Under pressure. Spot performance is flat. With the peak of new - product listing and the arrival of the consumption peak season, futures price fluctuations increase. High inventory depletion is accelerating, which may drive a short - term rebound. However, in a supply - demand loose pattern, the overall trend is expected to be bearish with occasional rebounds. Pay attention to short - term rebound opportunities during the cold - season peak [1][16]. - **Hogs**: Oscillatory and weakening. In the context of high supply and demand in February, there may be short - term price rebounds in some regions, but they lack a sustainable basis. Near - month contracts are prone to decline due to weak supply - demand and delivery logic, so pay attention to low - level risk control. Far - month contracts lack a basis for upward trend due to poor capacity reduction. Focus on short - term long - allocation and rebound opportunities [1][18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2727 yuan/ton, down 0.84% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3168.57 yuan/ton, down 0.42%. The soybean crushing profit decreased, and the basis strengthened. The export decline expectation led to a fall in US soybeans, and domestic inventory accumulation pressured the market [2][4]. - **Brazilian Situation**: As of last Thursday, Brazilian farmers had completed 10% of the 2025/26 soybean harvest area, 5 percentage points higher than the previous week and higher than last year's 9%. Multiple institutions predict record - high Brazilian soybean production in 2025/26 [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2249 yuan/ton, down 1.19% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2562.63 yuan/ton, down 0.73%. Coastal oil mill rapeseed meal inventory increased, and the market sentiment was bearish [5][7]. - **Supply Situation**: China has completed the customs clearance of at least one ship of Australian rapeseeds and is expected to start crushing this week. Chinese crushers have also ordered Canadian rapeseeds and rapeseed meal for shipment in the coming months [7]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9094 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous day. The national average price was 9100 yuan/ton, up 0.89%. The trading volume decreased, and the import cost increased. The inventory decreased slightly, and the proportion of bullish views increased [8]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Indonesia's export ban plan supported prices, but the January Malaysian palm oil export data was average, with a risk of inventory accumulation. India's palm oil imports reached a four - month high in January [9]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: Domestic cotton futures prices generally rose slightly, and US cotton prices declined slightly. The spot price decreased slightly, and the basis of some contracts weakened. The textile enterprise's profit decreased, and the demand of spinning and weaving enterprises declined [10]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Internationally, Brazil and Turkey are expected to reduce cotton production in 2026. In China, new - cotton processing is basically completed, inventory is being depleted, and import volume increased in December. However, domestic demand is in a weakening stage [11][12][13]. Red Dates - **Market Situation**: Futures prices rose slightly, and most spot prices remained stable. The basis of some contracts weakened, and the arrival volume in the Guangdong market decreased. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises decreased [14]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply of the spot market is stable, and the inventory depletion has accelerated. With the arrival of the peak consumption season, the futures price fluctuations increase [15][16]. Hogs - **Market Situation**: Futures prices generally declined, and the national average slaughter price decreased. The inventory of sample enterprises decreased slightly, and the slaughter volume increased. The slaughter profit improved, and the frozen - product storage rate decreased [17]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In January, the breeding side slightly exceeded the plan, and the supply in the south is relatively sufficient. In February, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises decreased, but the daily - average pressure increased. The demand increased during the pre - holiday period, and the overall profit remained above 0 yuan/head [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: The macro - sentiment has ebbed, and the geopolitical influence has declined [2]. - Soybean oil: It is undergoing high - level shock adjustments [2]. - Soybean meal: The market fluctuates, following the sentiment of the commodity market [2]. - Soybean: The state reserve auction had good results, with a positive impact [2]. - Corn: The callback range is limited [2]. - Sugar: It is running weakly [2]. - Cotton: It is expected to maintain a shock trend [2]. - Eggs: The spot market has weakened [2]. - Hogs: The pre - holiday price increase was less than expected, and the pressure has increased [2]. - Peanuts: They are fluctuating weakly [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm oil and Soybean oil - **Fundamental data**: Palm oil's main contract closed at 9,014 yuan/ton during the day session with a - 2.45% change, and 9,092 yuan/ton at night with a 0.87% change; soybean oil's main contract closed at 8,092 yuan/ton during the day session with a - 2.29% change, and 8,116 yuan/ton at night with a 0.30% change [4]. - **Macro and industry news**: On Monday, CBOT soybean and soybean oil futures closed lower. The decline in international crude oil prices and the increase in the estimated output of Brazilian soybeans were the main reasons [5][6]. 3.2 Soybean meal and Soybean - **Fundamental data**: DCE soybean 2605 closed at 4393 yuan/ton during the day session with a - 0.75% change; DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2750 yuan/ton during the day session with a - 0.94% change [10]. - **Macro and industry news**: On Monday, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower. The decline in international crude oil prices and the increase in the estimated output of Brazilian soybeans were the main factors [12]. 3.3 Corn - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of C2603 was 2,261 yuan/ton during the day session with a - 0.70% change, and 2,267 yuan/ton at night with a 0.27% change; the closing price of C2605 was 2,260 yuan/ton during the day session with a - 0.92% change, and 2,270 yuan/ton at night with a 0.44% change [13]. - **Macro and industry news**: The prices of northern corn and southern ports showed different trends, and the prices of imported grains were also provided [14]. 3.4 Sugar - **Fundamental data**: The raw sugar price was 14.26 cents/pound with a - 0.01 change; the mainstream spot price was 5300 yuan/ton with a - 20 change; the futures main contract price was 5207 yuan/ton with a - 41 change [16]. - **Macro and industry news**: In the 25/26 sugar - making season, the sugar output in India increased year - on - year, and the export volume in Brazil also increased [16]. 3.5 Cotton - **Fundamental data**: CF2605 closed at 14,575 yuan/ton during the day session with a - 0.65% change, and 14635 yuan/ton at night with a 0.41% change; CY2603 closed at 20,405 yuan/ton during the day session with a - 0.44% change, and 20435 yuan/ton at night with a 0.15% change [21]. - **Macro and industry news**: The new trading volume of cotton spot was average, the price of pure - cotton yarn was stable, and ICE cotton futures continued to decline [22]. 3.6 Eggs - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of egg 2602 was 3,000 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 0.96% change; the closing price of egg 2603 was 3,002 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 1.51% change [27]. - **Trend intensity**: The trend intensity was - 1, indicating a weak trend [28]. 3.7 Hogs - **Fundamental data**: The Henan spot price was 12880 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 12100 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 12460 yuan/ton; the price of hog 2603 was 11220 yuan/ton, the price of hog 2605 was 11650 yuan/ton, and the price of hog 2607 was 12345 yuan/ton [31]. - **Trend intensity**: The trend intensity was - 1, indicating a weak trend [32]. 3.8 Peanuts - **Fundamental data**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 9,100 yuan/ton, the price of Henan Baisha general peanuts was 7,200 yuan/ton; PK603 closed at 8,030 yuan/ton with a - 0.62% change, and PK605 closed at 7,902 yuan/ton with a - 0.18% change [34]. - **Spot market**: The prices of peanuts in different regions were stable, with low trading volumes [35].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6] Group 2: Report Core Views - **Cotton**: The overall cotton market is recovering, but faces upward pressure. Short - term cotton prices are supported by pre - festival stocking, but are expected to fluctuate widely. Medium - to - long - term trends depend on the implementation of target price and area - reduction policies [1][2][3] - **Sugar**: Short - to - medium - term sugar prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out. The market is influenced by factors such as Brazilian inventory, northern hemisphere exports, and Chinese import policies. Long - term sugar prices should not be overly pessimistic [4][5][6] - **Pulp**: Despite overseas supply disturbances and rising foreign quotes, domestic fundamentals have not improved significantly. Pulp prices are expected to continue to oscillate at low levels in the short term [6] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton - **Market News and Key Data**: Cotton 2605 futures closed at 14,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-0.20%). Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,832 yuan/ton, up 214 yuan/ton. National average price was 16,103 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton. In November 2025, US clothing and apparel retail sales increased by 7.54% year - on - year and 0.88% month - on - month. The cumulative retail sales from January to November 2025 increased by 5.65% year - on - year [1] - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, the USDA in January lowered global cotton production and ending stocks, but the global supply - demand pattern remains loose. US cotton export sign - up progress is slow, putting short - term pressure on ICE cotton. Domestically, China's cotton production in the 25/26 season increased significantly, and commercial inventories are rising seasonally. Pre - festival stocking led to good spot sales, but downstream new orders decreased, and finished - product inventory is high. The annual supply - demand is expected to be balanced, with a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year [2] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Short - term prices are supported by pre - festival stocking, but face downstream transmission and price - difference pressures, expected to fluctuate widely. Medium - to - long - term trends depend on policy implementation [3] Sugar - **Market News and Key Data**: Sugar 2605 futures closed at 5,257 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (+1.35%). In Nanning, Guangxi, the spot price was 5,320 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. In Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,190 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. As of January 28, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 54, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 1.7826 million tons, up 0.1 million tons (0.56%) from the previous week [4] - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou sugar futures trended strongly. The tight trade flow in the first quarter supports raw sugar, while it will ease in the second quarter. In the long run, the market expects the sugar - making ratio in Brazil to decline in the 26/27 season, and Thailand's planting area may shrink. In China, Guangxi's sugar mills are in the peak - crushing period, and import pressure in the fourth quarter remains high. However, the import volume of syrup has decreased significantly. The domestic sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation stage, with limited downward space [5] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Short - to - medium - term sugar prices should be treated with an oscillating - bottom - building mindset, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and capital disturbances [6] Pulp - **Market News and Key Data**: Pulp 2605 futures closed at 5,388 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.26%). In Shandong, the spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp was 5,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,965 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood - pulp spot market price was generally stable, with weak downstream follow - up [6] - **Market Analysis**: Pulp futures fluctuated narrowly. Supply - side factors such as overseas mill shutdowns and rising foreign quotes pushed up pulp prices, but the global wood - pulp inventory is still accumulating. In terms of demand, European port pulp inventory decreased in November, and domestic terminal demand is insufficient, with port inventory at a historical high [6] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Despite overseas supply disruptions and rising foreign quotes, domestic fundamentals have not improved, and pulp prices are expected to continue to oscillate at low levels in the short term [6]

Group 1: General Information - The reports cover multiple industries including oils and fats, cotton, sugar, jujube, apple, corn, hog, meal, and egg, dated January 28, 2026 [1][2][4][6][8][10][13][17][19] Group 2: Oils and Fats Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Palm oil may face resistance and fall due to concerns about limited inventory decline; soybean oil is affected by South American soybean harvest and geopolitical risks; rapeseed oil is influenced by US threats to Canada and inventory status [1] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean oil was 8,660 yuan/ton, up 0.12% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2605 was 8,258 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The basis of Y2605 was 412 yuan/ton, down 5.07%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 9,253 yuan/ton, up 1.46%; the futures price of P2605 was 9,238 yuan/ton, up 1.61%. The basis of P2605 was 28 yuan/ton, down 46.43%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed oil was 10,306 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; the futures price of OI605 was 9,326 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [1] - **Inventory and Other Factors**: Palm oil inventory changes will be a focus at the end of the month; soybean oil is affected by South American soybean harvest and geopolitical risks; rapeseed oil is influenced by US - Canada relations and inventory [1] Group 3: Cotton Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - ICE US cotton maintains a low - level shock, and domestic Zheng cotton is supported by downstream demand and planting area adjustment expectations [2] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of cotton 2605 was 14,565 yuan/ton, down 0.58%; the futures price of cotton 2609 was 14,710 yuan/ton, down 0.64%. The spot price of Xinjiang 3128B was 15,633 yuan/ton, down 0.53% [2] - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory decreased by 100%, industrial inventory increased by 1.5%, import volume increased by 49.5%, and other indicators showed different changes [2] Group 4: Sugar Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - ICE raw sugar maintains a low - level shock, and domestic sugar price is expected to maintain a low - level shock with support from cost and market atmosphere [4] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of sugar 2605 was 2,168 yuan/ton, down 0.08%; the futures price of sugar 2609 was 2,182 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. The spot price of Nanning was 5,300 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [4] - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production decreased by 16.43%, sales decreased by 37.18%, and other indicators changed accordingly [4] Group 5: Jujube Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The jujube spot market has weak transactions, and the futures is in a low - valuation range. Attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival transactions and inventory [6] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of jujube 2605 was 8,820 yuan/ton, up 0.68% [6] - **Market Situation**: The spot market has weak transactions, and some traders exchange price for volume, with some small factories shutting down [6] Group 6: Apple Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The apple market is affected by pre - holiday demand, but high prices may suppress consumption, and inventory removal is slow [8] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of apple 2605 was 9,504 yuan/ton, up 0.40% [8] - **Market Situation**: The market sentiment is warming up, but the inventory removal of ordinary apples is slow due to high prices and competition from other fruits [8] Group 7: Corn Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Short - term corn price is supported by farmers' reluctance to sell and pre - holiday inventory building, but is pressured by policy release and high - price transmission difficulties, maintaining a high - level shock [10] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of corn 2603 was 2,283 yuan/ton, down 0.44%; the futures price of corn starch 2603 was 2,540 yuan/ton, down 0.70% [10] - **Market Situation**: Northeast corn price is stable and strong, North China has a small inventory - replenishing intention, and feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory in a rolling manner [10] Group 8: Hog Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The hog market is expected to maintain a bottom - range shock, with increasing supply pressure and limited fundamental benefits [13] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of hog 2605 was 11,695 yuan/ton, down 0.55%; the futures price of hog 2603 was 11,285 yuan/ton, down 1.57% [13] - **Market Situation**: Spot price is weakening, supply pressure is increasing, and the base difference is strong, but the fundamental situation is not optimistic [13] Group 9: Meal Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The meal market is expected to maintain a shock, with support at the bottom and pressure at the top [17] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3,120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of M2605 was 2,766 yuan/ton, down 0.11% [17] - **Market Situation**: The domestic spot market is loose, the开机率 is high, and the inventory is still relatively high, but the first - quarter arrival expectation is low and there is uncertainty [17] Group 10: Egg Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The egg market is expected to maintain a range shock, with sufficient supply and attention to the digestion ability of high - price goods [19] Detailed Summary - **Price Changes**: On January 27, 2026, the futures price of egg 03 contract was 3,047 yuan/500KG, down 0.72%; the futures price of egg 04 contract was 3,322 yuan/500KG, down 1.25% [19] - **Market Situation**: Egg price increase boosts farmers' confidence, supply is sufficient, and attention should be paid to the terminal digestion ability of high - price eggs [19]