Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][7][8] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: The global cotton market supply - demand pattern is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season. In China, due to increased consumption and potential production cuts, the medium - long - term cotton price center may rise, but short - term upside is limited by internal - external price differences and policy factors [2][3] - Sugar: Internationally, the raw sugar remains strong, and the Brazilian sugar - making ratio may decline. Domestically, there is an oversupply with high industrial inventory, and the upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is weak, but it has strong support due to the Middle East situation [5][7] - Pulp: The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026, but domestic demand is insufficient, and port inventory remains high. The pulp price is likely to consolidate at a low level in the short term [8] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 15,295 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton (-0.58%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,691 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16,850 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton. The USDA's 2026/27 crop planting intention report shows that the expected cotton planting area in the US is 9.64 million acres, up 3.9% year - on - year [1] Sugar - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,398 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton (-0.79%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,420 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,295 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The consulting firm Safras&Mercado predicts that Brazil's sugar export volume in the 2026/27 season may decrease by 14.2% to 29 million tons, and production will drop to 40.3 million tons, while ethanol production will increase by 10.7% to 42.58 billion liters [4] Pulp - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,124 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton (-1.12%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,155 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,790 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton. In February 2026, the total European port inventory increased by 15.34% month - on - month and 2.99% year - on - year [7] Group 4: Market Analysis Cotton - International: The Middle East conflict causes oil price fluctuations, and the macro - level impact on cotton prices needs attention. The global supply - demand pattern is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season. Domestic: In the 25/26 season, domestic cotton production increased significantly, but consumption also increased. The "Golden March and Silver April" peak season is expected to be good, and inventory may be tight at the end of the year. There is a production cut expectation for new crops [2] Sugar - International: The raw sugar is strong, and the Brazilian sugar - making ratio may decline due to geopolitical conflicts. Domestic: The sugarcane harvest is delayed, production increases more than expected, and the industry is in a inventory - building stage with high industrial inventory and increased imports [5] Pulp - Supply: Overseas new production capacity is limited in the past two years, and major overseas broadleaf pulp mills have announced production cuts and conversion plans. If European and American consumption improves, the pressure on China's imports may be relieved. Demand: Although there is a large amount of finished paper production capacity in China, terminal demand is insufficient, and port inventory remains high. In 2026, the demand for pulp is expected to improve [8] Group 5: Strategies - Cotton: Adopt a neutral strategy. Pay attention to new - year target price policies, planting area reduction, and potential reserve - releasing policies [3] - Sugar: Adopt a neutral strategy. Consider the sugar price as oscillating in the short term due to supply - demand and geopolitical factors [7] - Pulp: Adopt a neutral strategy. The pulp price is likely to consolidate at a low level in the short term due to high inventory [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural market shows a co - existence of weak current reality and strong future expectations, with different trends for various products. For example, double - meal markets are weak in the near term and strong in the long term; vegetable oils are回调 due to geopolitical easing expectations; and the corn market experiences a slight decline due to increased alternatives [1][6]. - The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, policy announcements, and supply - demand relationships. Different products have different influencing factors and future trends, and investors need to pay attention to various risk factors and market changes [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Vegetable oils are回调 again under the expectation of geopolitical easing. In the future, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to pay attention to the phased low - buying strategy [5]. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, there are signs of further easing in the US - Israel - Iran war, with a significant drop in crude oil and an expected relief of inflation pressure, causing vegetable oils to follow the decline. In the soybean sector, the external market of US soybeans and US soybean oil is weakly fluctuating, and the "buy oil and sell meal" arbitrage is active. Domestically, the shutdown of oil - pressing plants has led to a decline in soybean oil inventory, but demand is weak, and the basis is relatively stable. For palm oil, the production reduction and significant increase in export volume in the first half of March in Malaysia have boosted market sentiment, but high prices and geopolitical issues may suppress demand. For rapeseed oil, the external market follows the trends of crude oil and US soybeans, and the domestic market expects an increase in rapeseed supply [5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: There is a co - existence of weak current reality and strong future expectations. The double - meal market is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate. Rapeseed meal may be weaker than soybean meal [1][6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the news is chaotic, and crude oil prices fluctuate sharply. Brazil's soybean harvesting progress is slower than the same period last year but basically in line with the five - year average. China's difficulties in obtaining phytosanitary certificates and increased shipping risks in the Persian Gulf have led to lower - than - expected soybean exports from Brazil in March. The strong US soybean export data restricts the decline of the futures price, and the market is waiting for the details of the US biodiesel policy. Domestically, due to the cooling of capital sentiment, institutions are shifting positions to the 2609 contract. The spot price of oil mills has decreased with the market, and the near - month basis is stable with a slight increase in some areas. The downward space of soybean meal is limited. For rapeseed meal, aquaculture farms have established a small number of long - term basis positions, and the granulated rapeseed meal in bonded warehouses has mostly been sold but is waiting for terminal pick - up [1][6]. 3.3 Corn - **View**: Corn prices experience a slight decline due to increased alternatives. In the short term, it may experience a phased decline, and in the medium term, it is generally bullish [6][7]. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price shows a differentiated trend. The purchase price of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast is stable, while in North China, the arrival of grain is high, and the price is slightly lower. Northern ports have raised prices to attract grain, and the demand in the southern ports is limited. The supply pressure is temporarily not large, and the demand at the feed and deep - processing ends is improving. The inventory of grain - using enterprises has increased. The increase in alternative supply such as wheat also affects the corn market [7]. 3.4 Pigs - **View**: The supply and demand of pigs are loose, and the pig price fluctuates at a low level. In the short and medium term, it is expected to be weakly fluctuating, and in the long term, the pig price may bottom out and rebound in the third quarter [8]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply has increased, and the demand is weak. In the medium term, the pressure of pig slaughter is high. In the long term, although the sow inventory has decreased, the sow productivity has increased. The current process of reducing production capacity is not smooth, and the consumption is in the off - season [8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The risk preference has recovered, and the market continues to rebound. The market is expected to fluctuate [9][10][11]. - **Logic**: As the geopolitical conflict has not further escalated, the market risk preference has continued to recover, and the rubber price has continued to rebound. Fundamentally, the Yunnan rubber - producing area has started tapping, and the downstream tire orders to the Middle East have been affected, which is negative for the price. The market is mainly affected by the macro - logic, and there are few new marginal positive factors [11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The market has reached a new high since listing. If crude oil continues to rise, the market will remain strong in the short term [12]. - **Logic**: The tight supply logic of butadiene has been continuously strengthened. Due to the impact of the geopolitical conflict on the arrival rhythm of key raw materials, the supply of butadiene has been passively reduced. Even if the price of butadiene is higher than that of downstream products, as long as the geopolitical situation remains tense, the price is still likely to rise [12]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: The cotton price rebounds within the range. In the long - term, it is expected to be bullish, and in the short - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [13]. - **Logic**: Fundamentally, the processing and inspection of Xinjiang cotton in the 25/26 season are basically completed, and the inventory - building period has ended, entering the de - stocking period. The export data of textiles and clothing from January to February are good, and the textile end has smooth sales and low inventory. In the long - term, the cotton price is expected to be bullish, but in the short - term, there is a lack of new positive factors, and the reduction of the cotton - planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 is uncertain [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: The sugar price fluctuates with the oil price in the short term. In the long - term, there may be an upward driving force [14][15][16]. - **Logic**: In the short term, affected by the oil price fluctuations caused by the Middle East conflict, the market is expected to fluctuate. Although the global sugar market is expected to have an oversupply in the 25/26 season, if the conflict drives the oil price to remain high, it may affect the production in Brazil's new sugar - crushing season and tighten the global sugar supply. The current domestic and foreign sugar prices are undervalued, and the sugar price is easily affected by funds [15]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: After continuous rebounds, it is gradually approaching the pressure level. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [17]. - **Logic**: The pulp market has experienced a continuous rebound after a sharp decline. Fundamentally, the consumption of broad - leaf pulp is strong, while that of coniferous pulp is weak. In the future, the demand in the paper industry will decline seasonally, and the overseas coniferous pulp mills have high inventory and great sales pressure. However, the production of coniferous pulp in high - cost areas overseas is in a loss state, and the price has strong cost support at a low level [17]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **View**: It fluctuates within a range. In the short - and medium - term, the market may first rise and then fall, and in the long - term, it will fluctuate within a wide range in the first half of 2026 [19]. - **Logic**: The fundamentals of double - glue paper have changed little recently. In the short - and medium - term, the first quarter to the second quarter is the traditional peak demand season. With the resumption of work of downstream printing factories and the upcoming autumn textbook publishing tenders, the price is supported. In the long - term, the market supply and demand are loose, and the price increase space is limited [19]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: Logs fluctuate strongly. In the short term, they are expected to maintain a strong - side fluctuation, but there is a risk of high - level fluctuation [20]. - **Logic**: Since March, the rise of log futures has been driven by cost increases and supply contractions. Geopolitical conflicts have led to high international oil prices, increasing shipping costs and import costs. New Zealand suppliers have actively reduced production and raised prices, and the supply is in short supply. However, the actual terminal demand recovery has not kept up, and there may be phased arrival pressure at the port [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean meal and corn industries is cautiously bullish [4][7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the bean meal market, although Brazilian new - season soybeans have a bumper harvest, downstream oil mills' inventories are continuously being consumed. If there are unexpected issues with future arrivals, the domestic market may face temporary supply shortages. Supported by cost and US soybeans, domestic bean meal prices are more likely to rise than fall [3] - In the corn market, the current inventory of deep - processing enterprises is still low, and they tend to raise prices to encourage purchases, which further supports corn prices. Feed enterprises have low acceptance of high - priced corn and prefer substitutes. The corn price at northern ports remains strong. With good wheat auction results and potential increases in auction volume, and rumors of rice auctions, the overall corn market supply is tight, and prices are expected to remain strong under the influence of high wheat prices [5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bean Meal 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2605 contract was 2961 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of - 46 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.53%. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2365 yuan/ton, a change of - 34 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.42% [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3320 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 359, a change of + 36 from the previous day. In Jiangsu, it was 3230 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 269, a change of + 6. In Guangdong, it was 3330 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 369, a change of + 6. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2410 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM05 + 45, a change of + 4 [1] - Market Information: As of the week ending March 19, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1.102 million tons, with a market expectation of 600,000 - 1.15 million tons, and the previous week's revised volume was 981,000 tons. In the first three weeks of March, Brazil exported 9.501 million tons of soybeans, with a daily average export volume of 633,000 tons, an 18% decrease compared to the daily average export volume of 771,000 tons in March last year [2] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - Downstream oil mills' inventories are continuously being consumed. If future arrivals are affected, the domestic market may face temporary supply shortages. Supported by cost and US soybeans, domestic bean meal prices are more likely to rise than fall. Attention should be paid to US soybean planting, future arrivals, and macro - events [3] 3.1.3 Strategy - Cautiously bullish [4] 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2605 contract was 2383 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of - 32 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.33%. The closing price of the corn starch 2605 contract was 2772 yuan/ton, a change of - 33 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.18% [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was C05 + 27, a change of + 37 from the previous day. In Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2900 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was CS05 + 128, a change of + 33 from the previous day [4] - Market Information: As of the week ending March 19, 2026, the US corn export inspection volume was 1.7 million tons, with a market expectation of 1.4 - 2.05 million tons, and the previous week's revised volume was 1.67 million tons. In the first three weeks of March, Brazil exported 784,000 tons of corn, with a daily average export volume of 52,000 tons, a 14% increase compared to the daily average export volume of 46,000 tons in March last year [4] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - Current inventories of deep - processing enterprises are low, so they raise prices to encourage purchases, which supports corn prices. Feed enterprises have low acceptance of high - priced corn and use substitutes. Corn prices at northern ports remain strong. With good wheat auction results and potential increases in auction volume, and rumors of rice auctions, the overall corn market supply is tight, and prices are expected to remain strong [5][6] 3.2.3 Strategy - Cautiously bullish [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][4][7] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton: The global cotton supply-demand pattern is generally loose this year, but the US cotton is in a low - valuation range. The supply - demand pattern of the global cotton market is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season. In China, the cotton output increased significantly in the 25/26 season, and the consumption increment brought by the expansion of downstream spindle capacity is obvious. The inventory at the end of the year may still be tight, and the medium - and long - term cotton price center is expected to rise [2] - Sugar: The international sugar price rebounded due to the rise in crude oil prices caused by the escalation of the Middle East situation, but the global sugar fundamentals have not changed substantially. In China, the sugar production in Guangxi and Yunnan is expected to increase more than expected, and the industrial inventory is high [3] - Pulp: The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026, and the growth rate of broad - leaf pulp shipments may slow down. The domestic terminal demand for pulp is insufficient, but the overall demand is expected to improve compared with last year [6] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 15,150 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton (- 0.39%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,554 yuan/ton, a change of - 178 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16,722 yuan/ton, a change of - 175 yuan/ton [1] - US cotton data: From March 6 - 12, the net signing of US 2025/26 - year - old upland cotton was 44,611 tons, a 22% decrease from the previous week and a 30% decrease from the average of the past four weeks. The shipment of upland cotton was 62,120 tons, a 26% decrease from the previous week and an 8% increase from the average of the past four weeks. The net signing of Pima cotton this year was 1,769 tons, a 9% increase from last week and an 11% decrease from the average of the past four weeks. The shipment of Pima cotton was 1,179 tons, a 71% decrease from last week and a 47% decrease from the average of the past four weeks. The net signing of next - year's upland cotton was 27,715 tons, and there was no signing of next - year's Pima cotton [1] Market Analysis - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated and declined. The issuance of 300,000 tons of processing trade quotas is beneficial to narrowing the domestic - foreign price difference. The global supply - demand pattern is generally loose this year, but the US cotton is in a low - valuation range. The 26/27 season may tighten. In China, the cotton output increased significantly in the 25/26 season, the consumption increment is obvious, the inventory at the end of the year may be tight, and the medium - and long - term cotton price center is expected to rise [2] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term upward trend may be suppressed by the domestic - foreign price difference. Focus on the reduction of the new - year planting area and possible reserve - releasing policies [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5,417 yuan/ton, a change of + 74 yuan/ton (+ 1.38%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,430 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,315 yuan/ton, a change of + 5 yuan/ton [2] - Indian sugar data: As of March 15, the sugar production in India's 2025/26 crushing season reached 2.6214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 249,000 tons (about 10.5%) [3] Market Analysis - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price stopped falling and rebounded. The international sugar price rebounded due to the rise in crude oil prices. The global sugar fundamentals have not changed substantially. In China, the sugar production in Guangxi and Yunnan is expected to increase more than expected, and the industrial inventory is high [3] Strategy - Neutral. The recent rise is mainly driven by geopolitical conflicts and technical rebounds. The fundamentals have limited improvement, and there is still upward pressure. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5,104 yuan/ton, a change of + 64 yuan/ton (+ 1.27%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,125 yuan/ton, a change of + 60 yuan/ton; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ussuri and Bratsk) was 4,745 yuan/ton, a change of + 45 yuan/ton [5] - Market situation: The spot price of imported wood pulp stopped falling, and some pulp prices rose slightly. The market prices of imported broad - leaf pulp and other types were mostly stable [5] Market Analysis - The pulp futures price stopped falling and stabilized. The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026, and the growth rate of broad - leaf pulp shipments may slow down. The domestic terminal demand for pulp is insufficient, but the overall demand is expected to improve compared with last year [6] Strategy - Neutral. The pulp fundamentals are generally weak, and the port inventory is still high. The pulp price may consolidate at a low level in the short term [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the粕类 market is cautiously bullish [3] - The investment rating for the corn market is neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - For the粕类 market, due to the slow soybean harvest progress in South America, the slower - than - expected arrival rhythm, concerns about short - term soybean supply, tightening supply, rising shipping costs, and increasing import soybean costs, the domestic粕类 prices are strongly supported [2] - For the corn market, feed enterprises have low acceptance of high - priced corn and mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The price of corn in northern ports is firm, while the purchasing mentality in southern sales areas is cautious. The supply increase of alternative grains may impact corn prices [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 粕类 Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the豆粕 2605 contract was 3042 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.20%) from the previous day; the closing price of the菜粕 2605 contract was 2443 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the豆粕 spot price was 3370 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 328, down 6 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3300 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of M05 + 258, down 6; in Guangdong, it was 3410 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of M05 + 368, down 6. In Fujian, the菜粕 spot price was 2470 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of RM05 + 27, unchanged [1] - Market Forecast: S&P Global Energy predicted that the US soybean planting area in 2026 would be 85 million acres, higher than the January forecast of 84.5 million acres and the 2025 sown area of 81.2 million acres [1][3] Market Analysis - The slow soybean harvest progress in South America, the slower - than - expected arrival rhythm, concerns about short - term soybean supply, tightening supply, rising shipping costs, and increasing import soybean costs provide strong support for domestic粕类 prices. Attention should be paid to port clearance efficiency, new - season US soybean planting progress, and the impact of macro - geopolitical events [2] Strategy - The strategy is to be cautiously bullish [3] Corn Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2605 contract was 2384 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.08%) from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2605 contract was 2719 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.07%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C05 + 21, down 7 from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CS05 + 181, up 102 [3] - Market News: S&P Global Energy predicted that the US soybean planting area in 2026 would be 85 million acres, higher than the January forecast of 84.5 million acres and the 2025 sown area of 81.2 million acres. China's corn and corn meal imports in January were 370,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 274.7%; in February, it was 170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 121.4% [1][3] Market Analysis - Feed enterprises have low acceptance of high - priced corn and mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The price of corn in northern ports is firm, while the purchasing mentality in southern sales areas is cautious. Alternative grains have diverted some demand. Attention should be paid to the auction transaction rate and price of alternative grains, as the increased supply of alternative grains may impact corn prices [4] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [5]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal and rapeseed meal sector is cautiously bullish [3] - The investment rating for the corn sector is neutral [6] Group 2: Core Views - In the domestic market, the slow soybean harvest progress in South America, the unexpected arrival rhythm, and the rising import costs support the domestic meal prices, and key factors need to be tracked [2] - Feed enterprises have low acceptance of high - priced corn, and the supply increase of substitute grains may impact corn prices, so the auction of substitute grains needs attention [4] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 3036 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton (-1.11%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2443 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton (-1.69%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3370 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 334, up 54; in Jiangsu, it was 3300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 264, up 14; in Guangdong, it was 3410 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of M05 + 374, up 34. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2470 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM05 + 27, down 8 [1] - News: Brazil's soybean exports in March are expected to be 1,632 million tons, slightly down from the previous forecast [1] Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2605 contract was 2382 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.17%); the corn starch 2605 contract was 2721 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (-0.33%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of C05 + 28, up 4; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of CS05 + 79, up 9 [3] - News: As of March 14, the harvest progress of Brazil's 25/26 first - crop corn was 34%, compared with 29.5% last week and 40.1% in the same period last year [3] Group 4: Market Analysis Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - South American soybean harvest progress is slow, arrival rhythm is unexpected, and import costs are rising, providing support for domestic meal prices [2] Corn - Feed enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases, and the supply increase of substitute grains may impact corn prices [4] Group 5: Strategies - For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, the strategy is cautiously bullish [3] - For corn, the strategy is neutral [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - All commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [2][4][7] Group 2: Report Core View - The global cotton supply - demand pattern is generally loose this year, but the US cotton is in a low - valuation range, and the supply - demand pattern in the 26/27 cotton season may tighten. In China, cotton production increased significantly in the 25/26 season, but consumption also increased due to expanded yarn - spinning capacity. The "Golden March and Silver April" peak season in the textile market has good expectations, and the commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly. With the expected reduction in Xinjiang's planting area in the 26/27 season, the medium - to - long - term cotton price center may continue to rise [2] - The international sugar price rebounded due to the increase in crude oil prices caused by the escalation of the Middle East situation, but the global sugar fundamentals have not changed substantially. In China, the sugar harvest progress is significantly delayed, and the production in Guangxi and Yunnan is expected to exceed expectations. After the festival, the domestic sugar is still in the inventory - accumulation stage with high industrial inventory [4] - The pulp price dropped significantly. The supply pressure of global wood pulp is expected to weaken in 2026, but the domestic port inventory remains at a historical high due to insufficient terminal demand. Although the paper production capacity is expanding, the overall pulp fundamentals remain weak [6] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton - **Market News and Key Data**: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 15,415 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton (-0.42%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,655 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 16,821 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan/ton [1] - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated and closed lower. The issuance of 300,000 tons of processing trade quotas is short - term positive for ICE US cotton and has limited inhibitory effect on Zhengzhou cotton, which helps narrow the domestic - foreign price difference. The medium - to - long - term outlook for US cotton is positive, and the medium - to - long - term cotton price center in China may continue to rise [2] - **Strategy**: Neutral. The short - term upward trend may be suppressed by the domestic - foreign price difference, and attention should be paid to the reduction in new - season planting area and potential reserve - release policies [2] Sugar - **Market News and Key Data**: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5,406 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton (-1.21%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,330 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [2] - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price was weakly sorted. The international sugar price rebounded due to the increase in crude oil prices, but the global sugar fundamentals have not changed substantially. In China, the sugar harvest is delayed, and the inventory is accumulating [4] - **Strategy**: Neutral. The recent rise is mainly driven by geopolitical conflicts and technical rebounds, with limited fundamental improvement and upward pressure. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate [4] Pulp - **Market News and Key Data**: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5,088 yuan/ton, down 144 yuan/ton (-2.75%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,140 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,800 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Analysis**: The pulp futures price dropped significantly. The supply pressure of global wood pulp is expected to weaken in 2026, but the domestic port inventory remains high due to insufficient terminal demand. The overall demand is expected to improve compared to last year [6] - **Strategy**: Neutral. The pulp fundamentals remain weak, and the short - term pulp price may continue to consolidate at a low level [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the粕类 market is cautiously bullish [4] - The investment rating for the corn market is neutral [7] Core Views - For the粕类 market, due to the slow soybean harvest progress in South America, the unexpected arrival rhythm, and the continuous tightening of the supply side, combined with the rising shipping costs and increasing import soybean costs, the domestic粕类 prices are strongly supported. Attention should be paid to port clearance efficiency, new - season US soybean planting progress, and the impact of macro - geopolitical events [3] - For the corn market, feed enterprises have low acceptance of high - priced corn and mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The corn price in northern ports is firm, while the purchasing mentality in southern sales areas is cautious. The supply increase of substitute grains may impact corn prices, and attention should be paid to the auction transaction rate and price of substitute grains [6] Market News and Important Data 粕类 - Futures: The closing price of the豆粕 2605 contract was 3071 yuan/ton, a change of - 57 yuan/ton (- 1.82%) from the previous day; the closing price of the菜粕 2605 contract was 2482 yuan/ton, a change of - 109 yuan/ton (- 4.21%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the豆粕 spot price was 3370 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 299, a change of - 3 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3290 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 219, a change of + 17 from the previous day; in Guangdong, it was 3380 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 309, a change of + 17 from the previous day; in Fujian, the菜粕 spot price was 2510 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM05 + 28, a change of + 9 from the previous day [1] Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2605 contract was 2379 yuan/ton, a change of - 7 yuan/ton (- 0.29%) from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2605 contract was 2743 yuan/ton, a change of + 14 yuan/ton (+ 0.51%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, a change of + 0 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of C05 + 26, a change of - 8 from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2800 yuan/ton, a change of + 0 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CS05 + 57, a change of - 14 from the previous day [4] Recent Market Information - For soybeans, on March 13, Patria AgroNegocios said that Brazilian farmers had harvested 57.43% of the expected soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season, lower than 66.03% in the same period last year but in line with the five - year average of 57.88%. The Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company predicted that the 2025/26 soybean production was 177.85 million tons, slightly down from the February estimate of 177.98 million tons. As of the week of March 11, 76% of soybean crops were rated normal to good, 72% of planting areas had suitable to optimal moisture conditions [2] - For corn, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics expected the total corn planting area in 2026 to be 22.7958 million hectares, an increase of 0.1% from the previous month's estimate and 2.4% from the previous year, and the total corn production was estimated to be 134.2794 million tons, an increase of 0.3% from the previous month's estimate but a decrease of 5.3% from the previous year. The Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company expected the 2025/26 corn production to be 138.27 million tons, lower than the previous month's estimate of 138.45 million tons and a 2.0% decrease from the previous year [4] Market Analysis 粕类 - In the domestic market, the slow soybean harvest progress in South America and the unexpected arrival rhythm have led to concerns about short - term soybean supply. Although the downstream inventory is relatively sufficient, the supply side is continuously tightening, and combined with rising shipping costs, the import soybean costs are increasing, which provides strong support for domestic粕类 prices. Attention should be paid to port clearance efficiency, new - season US soybean planting progress, and the impact of macro - geopolitical events [3] Corn - Feed enterprises have low acceptance of high - priced corn and mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The corn price in northern ports is firm, while the purchasing mentality in southern sales areas is cautious. Some substitute grains have diverted certain demand. Information about wheat and aged rice auctions has emerged, and attention should be paid to the auction transaction rate and price of substitute grains, as the increase in substitute grain supply may impact corn prices [6] Strategies - For the粕类 market, the strategy is to be cautiously bullish [4] - For the corn market, the strategy is neutral [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn: The price of the main 2605 contract of corn fell below the 2400 yuan integer - level support, and the price showed a downward - trending shock. The supply of wheat increased, which put pressure on the corn price. The price in the Northeast was slightly adjusted, while that in North China continued to rise. The downstream was cautious in purchasing, and the market trading volume was average. It is recommended to pay attention to policy trends [1]. - Soybean and related products: CBOT soybeans hit a two - year high and then fell by the daily limit. The export inspection volume of US soybeans was higher than expected, but the export volume of Brazilian soybeans decreased year - on - year. Domestic protein meal followed the decline. It is recommended to close long positions [1]. - Palm oil and other oils: BMD palm oil rose for four consecutive days, while CBOT soybean oil fell. The export of Malaysian palm oil increased, and domestic oils were strong. It is recommended to reduce long positions [1]. - Eggs: The main 2605 contract of egg futures rebounded slightly. The spot price was stable with partial increases. Due to sufficient supply and off - season demand, it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to supply and market sentiment [1][2]. - Pigs: The main 2605 contract of live - hog futures fell sharply to a new low. The spot price was stable with partial changes. Due to sufficient supply and off - season demand, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of macro and spot price changes on the futures [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Research Viewpoints - **Corn**: On Monday, the corn contract reduced positions and declined. The 2605 contract price fell below 2400 yuan. After the policy of 500,000 tons of wheat supply, the willingness to sell corn increased. The price in the Northeast was slightly adjusted, and that in North China continued to rise. The downstream was cautious in purchasing, and the price decline space was limited. It is recommended to pay attention to policy impacts [1]. - **Soybean and related products**: CBOT soybeans hit a two - year high and then fell by the daily limit. The US soybean crushing volume in February exceeded expectations, and the export inspection volume was 966,000 tons. Brazilian soybean exports in the first two weeks of March decreased by 16% year - on - year. Domestic protein meal followed the decline, and long positions should be closed [1]. - **Palm oil and other oils**: BMD palm oil rose for four consecutive days, while CBOT soybean oil fell. The export of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 15 increased by 43.5% - 56.9% month - on - month. Domestic oils were strong, and long positions should be reduced [1]. - **Eggs**: The main 2605 contract of egg futures rebounded slightly, and the spot price was stable with partial increases. Due to sufficient supply and off - season demand, it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to supply and market sentiment [1][2]. - **Pigs**: The main 2605 contract of live - hog futures fell sharply to a new low. The spot price was stable with partial changes. Due to sufficient supply and off - season demand, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of macro and spot price changes on the futures [2]. Market Information - Military actions: Israel's military actions against Iran will continue for at least three more weeks, and the US may send more warships to the Middle East [3]. - Monetary data: At the end of February, the balance of broad money (M2) was 349.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9% [3]. - Regulatory meeting: The China Securities Regulatory Commission will strengthen monitoring and supervision of domestic and foreign, futures and spot markets [3]. - Iron ore: The inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports increased by 696,600 tons, and the daily handling volume increased by 68,200 tons [3]. - Fertilizer: The state will advance the release of national fertilizer reserves, and the price of urea futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has risen by more than 20% [3][4]. - Oil: Iraq is ready to resume oil exports, and Bahrain Aluminium has started phased production cuts [3][4]. - Methanol: The inventory of methanol in East China ports decreased by 72,000 tons [4]. Variety Spreads - **Contract spreads**: Include corn 5 - 9, corn starch 5 - 9, bean 5 - 9, soybean meal 5 - 9, soybean oil 5 - 9, palm oil 5 - 9, egg 5 - 9, and live - hog 5 - 9 spreads [6][7][8][10]. - **Contract basis**: Include corn, corn starch, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, egg, and live - hog contract basis [13][15][19][21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) and corn sectors is neutral [3][6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the粕类 market, the current downstream oil mill bean meal inventory, although somewhat depleted, remains at a relatively high level in recent years. Influenced by rising international shipping costs and fertilizer prices, the Brazilian soybean premium has strengthened. Supported by import costs and factors such as the oil - meal ratio, domestic bean meal prices are running on the strong side. Future attention should be paid to port clearance, US soybean exports, and macro - events [2] - In the corn market, deep - processing enterprises are raising prices to replenish inventories, which supports corn prices. However, previous snow and rain affected transportation. Northern port corn prices are firm, while southern buyers are cautious. Some substitute grains are diverting demand. With wheat and aged rice not yet being auctioned in large quantities, the overall corn supply is not loose. The arrival of substitute grains will provide some supply, and future attention should be on policy - related auctions and grain sales [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. 粕类 (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2605 contract was 3054 yuan/ton, a change of - 14 yuan/ton (- 0.46%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2492 yuan/ton, a change of + 12 yuan/ton (+ 0.48%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3380 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 326, up 74 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 196, up 14 from the previous day; in Guangdong, it was 3350 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 296, up 44 from the previous day. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2530 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of RM05 + 38, up 18 from the previous day [1] - Market Information: From March 1 - 7, Brazil's soybean exports were 3.71 million tons, and the estimated monthly exports were 16.47 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 16.09 million tons and a 4.7% increase from the same period last year. The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina maintained its 2025/26 soybean production forecast at 48 million tons [1] 2. Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2605 contract was 2396 yuan/ton, a change of + 1 yuan/ton (+ 0.04%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2605 contract was 2723 yuan/ton, a change of + 5 yuan/ton (+ 0.18%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C05 + 24, down 1 from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS05 + 77, down 5 from the previous day [3] - Market Information: The French Agricultural Bureau's monthly report showed that the estimated 2025/26 soft wheat production in France was 33.331 million tons, the same as the previous month's forecast and a 30.0% increase year - on - year. Exports to third - countries were adjusted down by 100,000 tons to 7.1 million tons, a 103.1% increase year - on - year. Ending stocks were adjusted up by 340,000 tons to 3.39 million tons, a 36.8% increase year - on - year [3]