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中金2026年展望 | 博彩:多元化步入新增长前景(要点版)
中金点睛· 2025-11-05 23:52
Group 1: Macau Gaming Sector Outlook - The total gaming revenue in Macau is expected to return to a normalized growth rate by 2026, with a projected year-on-year increase of 5%, reaching 88% of the 2019 level, primarily driven by mass market gaming [3] - Mass market gaming revenue is anticipated to grow by 6% year-on-year, recovering to 126% of the 2019 level, supported by factors such as the recovery of overseas visitors, new property openings, and a diversified range of entertainment activities [3] - VIP gaming revenue is expected to decline by 5% year-on-year, recovering to 28% of the 2019 level, mainly due to high win rates in 2025 and the small scale of VIP business post-intermediary restructuring [3] Group 2: Industry Financial Projections - The EBITDA for the Macau gaming industry is projected to grow by 7% year-on-year in 2026, recovering to 96% of the 2019 level, amid a competitive landscape with six operators maintaining rational competition [4] - The reinvestment rate in the industry is expected to stabilize, with EBITDA margins remaining at stable levels due to the current competitive dynamics [4] Group 3: Global Luxury Goods Market Outlook - The global personal luxury goods retail market is expected to grow by 3% year-on-year in 2026, recovering from a flat performance in 2025, with the Greater China region projected to grow by 4% due to government consumption stimulus and the return of Chinese consumers [6][7] - Japan is also expected to see a 4% growth in luxury goods consumption in 2026, stabilizing after fluctuations in 2024 and 2025 [6] - North America is projected to continue stable growth at 3%, driven by increasing consumer demand for luxury goods and ongoing brand penetration in the market [6] Group 4: Pricing Strategy in Luxury Goods - The growth drivers in the luxury goods sector are shifting towards a rebalancing of product pricing structures, aimed at increasing foot traffic and sales [7] - Many brands are beginning to lower prices or introduce more entry-level products to attract customers, addressing previous issues of customer loss due to significant price increases from 2020 to 2025 [7]