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片仔癀(600436):片仔(600436):业绩短期承压,静待成本端改善
Guotou Securities· 2025-10-23 05:05
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate-A" with a 6-month target price of 190.55 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 181.40 CNY as of October 22, 2025 [4]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025. Revenue decreased by 11.93% year-on-year to 74.42 billion CNY, and net profit fell by 20.74% to 21.29 billion CNY [1][2]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to various business segments facing pressure, particularly in the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector, which saw a revenue drop of 12.93% [2]. - There is an expectation of gradual relief from cost pressures due to a decrease in the price of natural cow bile, a key raw material for the company's products [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 20.64 billion CNY, down 26.28% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.87 billion CNY, down 28.82% [1]. - The gross margin for the main business was 39.05%, a decrease of 6.49 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to high raw material costs [2]. Business Segments - The pharmaceutical manufacturing segment generated 40.16 billion CNY in revenue, a decline of 12.93%, with liver disease medications accounting for 38.80 billion CNY, down 9.41% [2]. - The pharmaceutical distribution segment's revenue was 28.87 billion CNY, down 8.45%, while the cosmetics segment saw a revenue drop of 23.82% to 4.00 billion CNY [2]. Cost and Supply Chain - The price of natural cow bile has decreased from 170,000 CNY/kg to 140,000 CNY/kg since August 2025, which is expected to alleviate cost pressures as high-priced raw materials are consumed [3]. - The company is also benefiting from a pilot program allowing the import of cow bile for traditional Chinese medicine production, which may improve supply dynamics [3]. Product Strategy and Marketing - The company is focusing on its strategic product, the Pizhonghuang pill, while expanding its product line to include health foods and cosmetics, with notable sales growth in its flagship beauty product [4][8]. - Marketing efforts have increased, with the establishment of 525 national medicine halls and partnerships with major pharmacy chains, enhancing market coverage [8]. Future Outlook - Revenue growth is projected to be -11.7% in 2025, followed by 10.5% in 2026 and 7.3% in 2027. Net profit growth is expected to be -19.6% in 2025, with a recovery to 6.7% in 2026 and 12.2% in 2027 [9].