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研报 | 预估2025年全球笔电出货年增2.2%,东南亚产能持续扩张
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-17 09:01
Core Insights - The global laptop market is showing signs of recovery in 2025 despite geopolitical factors and tariff uncertainties, with an expected annual shipment increase of approximately 2.2%, surpassing 180 million units [2][7] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The second quarter of 2025 saw particularly strong shipment momentum, driven by zero tariffs on laptops imported from Southeast Asia and proactive inventory management by brands [4] - The education sector continues to stimulate demand, contributing to a 9.5% quarter-on-quarter increase in shipments, with expectations of a 7.5% growth in the third quarter [5] Group 2: Southeast Asia's Role - Southeast Asia is emerging as a key production base outside of China, with significant investments from companies like Dell and Apple in Vietnam, leading to a projected 13.5% share of global laptop production capacity by 2025 [6] - Thailand is also becoming a notable production hub, with HP's initiatives leading to new production lines, and an expected capacity share of 6.7% by 2025 [6] - Other regions such as India, Indonesia, and Brazil are being prioritized for localized production due to government requirements, with an anticipated global capacity share of 3.7% by 2025 [6] Group 3: Demand and Supply Factors - The demand side of the global laptop market is benefiting from moderate replacement cycles and educational projects, while the supply side is diversifying due to capacity relocation and geopolitical factors [7]