甲甲甲甲甲甲甲 甲甲甲甲 2026/1/6 作者：汤剑林 从业资格证号：F03117796 交易咨询证号：Z0019347 研究联系方式：tangjianlin@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 观点小结 | 甲醇 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 中性偏多 | 供应：上周新增检修装置有内蒙古黑猫，中原大化、四川玖源、重庆卡贝乐、大庆油田、山西永鑫、青海中 浩、陕西黄陵、内蒙古博源、大土河等装置仍在检修中，关注国内天然气制甲醇装置重启时间。伊朗装置多 数装置停车，当前开车装置仅剩FPC、KPC和Bushehr，1月份伊朗发运量大幅减少，且近期地缘持续发酵，关 注地缘影响持续性。 | | | | 需求：传统下游开工率窄幅波动，传统需求季节性偏淡，近期内地采购情绪一般，传统下游多按需采购。烯 | | | | 烃需求变动不大，宁波富德兑现检修，联泓新装置投产运行中，听闻部分装置由于利润偏低可能存在停车降 负情况，关注真实性。 | | | | 短期甲醇价格大幅反弹，一方面由于伊朗装置停车，进口减量或 ...

【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | PG2602 | 4,132 | 0.85% | #N/A | #N/A | | | PG2603 | 4,013 | 1.01% | #N/A | #N/A | | | PL2602 | 5,795 | 0.42% | #N/A | #N/A | | | PL2603 | 5,835 | 0.73% | #N/A | #N/A | | | PL2604 | 5,888 | 0.36% | #N/A | #N/A | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2602 | 86,561 | 13711 | 59,440 | -3219 | | 持仓&成交 | PG2603 | 29,368 | 10914 | 57,585 | 2160 | | | PL2602 | 9,054 | -3882 | 4,592 | -777 | | | PL2603 | 18,178 | ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 C3产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 日期：2026年1月4日 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 总结 01 LPG部分 02 丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 平衡表 供应 需求 下游库存 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 | 注：节假日部分数据未更新 | | --- | 本周LPG观点：地缘因素扰动成本，关注下行驱动兑现 供应 成本方面，1月CP官价高开，部分提振市场情绪；国际市场供应方面，美国港口大雾天气装船延迟，叠加中东检修季，现货供应短期内维持偏 紧，但存在逐渐增量预期。 需求 民用燃烧方面，气温降低，燃烧需求回暖逐渐兑现；但供应充裕，民用表现乏力。C3方面，辽宁金发PDH装置停工，预计节后回归；滨华PDH装 置虽有短暂波动但迅速恢复，多套装置的交替变动对市场整体需求冲击有限。 观点 本周，受节假 ...

| | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | G国贸期货 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国贸商品指数 ITE G | 国贸商品指数日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 从业资格号: 别建春 | F3014717 | | | | 宏观金融中心 投资咨询号: Z0013223 | | 2025/12/25 | | | 周三（12月24日），国内商品期市收盘多数上涨，贵金属涨幅居前,沪银涨8.12%,把、铂涨停; | | | | | 能源材料多数上涨,碳酸锂涨5.89%;基本金属全部上涨,沪镍涨4.68%;化工品全部上涨,乙二醇涨 | | | | | 3.89%;农副产品多数上涨,鸡蛋涨2.29%;非金属建材全部上涨,玻璃涨2.04%;油脂油料多数上 | | | | | 涨,菜油涨1.45%;黑色系多数上涨,不锈钢涨1.40%;能源品多数上涨,原油涨0.68%;航运期货跌 幅居前,集运指数(欧线)跌1.63%。 | | | | | 热评:周三国内商品多数上涨,其中,工业品多数上涨,农产品多数上涨。具体来看; | | | | | (1) 黑色系多数上涨。终端需求疲弱的 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 陈骏昊 2． 现货矛盾持续：白银供需缺口、关税预期导致的库存套利、白银ETF持续增仓等因素令白银现货矛 盾持续。关注期货库存、伦敦市场租赁利率及内外价差等数据的变化。 国泰君安期货市场分析师 Z0021546 今年贵金属板块整体走势强劲，在金银相继突破历史新高之后，铂钯近期的表现也脱离此前震荡区间， 快速向上突破。宏观支撑、现货矛盾、需求预期、市场情绪等因素共同推升贵金属价格。目前正值年 末，金银铂钯处于价格高位，那么从明年来看，贵金属板块的驱动需要关注什么？和今年相比又会有哪 些变化呢？ 黄金： 1． 美国货币政策：据今年9月、12月美联储点阵图中位数显示，2026年在延续今年降息周期的同时， 节奏或相对放缓，关注政策利率是否逐步接近理论中性利率区域。 2． 美国财政扩张节奏：12月美联储重启扩表，以短端国债购买为主。可关注扩表对美元流动性的影 响。 3． 地缘因素：全球政经不确定性指数显示今年4月达到历史极高值，目前依然维持高位。一方面可关 注"事件脉冲型"影响因素对黄金的短时冲击，另一方面要关注更"广义"的长期博弈。 白银： 1． 宏观宽 ...

近期，PTA主力合约价格持续在4600~4750元／吨区间震荡，短期PTA市场主要矛盾并不突出。不过基 于行业格局长期向好的预期，预计PTA远月合约运行重心将逐步上移。 地缘因素支撑油价 本周三，美国与委内瑞拉紧张局势持续升温，给油价注入地缘溢价。特朗普表态全面封锁进出委内瑞拉 的受制裁油轮，要求把石油等资产"还给美国"的消息促使原油价格大幅反弹。周四凌晨，据美国记者塔 克·卡尔森援引一名国会议员的消息称，美国总统特朗普或于北京时间12月18日上午对委内瑞拉宣战， 布伦特原油回到60美元／桶之上。总体来看，尽管市场普遍对原油供需格局持悲观态度，油价长期面临 一定过剩压力，但是当前原油已计价较多利空因素，且地缘因素将产生强有力支撑。 基本面好转可期 目前，PTA低加工费现状仍在持续。截至12月17日，PTA加工费为164元／吨，处在历史低位水平。上 游PX供应持续偏紧，挤压PTA环节的利润。PTA供应减量不大，目前行业开工率在73.7%左右。 需求端，进入12月，终端织造需求进入季节性回落阶段。截至12月12日，江浙加弹综合开工率下降至 83%，江浙织机综合开工率下降至67%，江浙印染综合开工率下降至70%，均 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical factors are the biggest short - term influence on crude oil, with the focus on the geopolitical developments in Russia - Ukraine and Venezuela [1][2]. - After the US announced a blockade on Venezuelan oil exports, the trading logic of asphalt has shifted from cost - driven to supply - contraction - expected, and the view on the asphalt variety has turned bullish [2]. - In the short term, pay attention to whether the "anti - involution" expectation similar to that in July will drive an intraday upward movement. For intraday unilateral long - position varieties in the energy and chemical sector, priority should be given to PX, synthetic rubber, PVC, and asphalt [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: With the US - Russia - Ukraine talks and the advancement of the cease - fire expectation, oil prices weakened. However, the announcement of sanctions on Venezuela led to a sharp rebound in oil prices. Geopolitical factors are the greatest uncertainty for oil price increases under the background of oversupply. Pay attention to the possible intensification of sanctions against Russia and the actual action against Venezuela [2][3][4]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level trend shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level trend is a short - term decline. The price increased on reduced positions today, and the short - term upper pressure is around 432. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [4]. (2) Asphalt - Logic: Previously, asphalt traded based on the crude oil cost logic. The US blockade on Venezuelan oil exports will directly affect domestic asphalt supply, and the trading logic has shifted to supply contraction, with a short - term bullish view [7]. - Technical analysis: The short - term hourly - level decline has ended. Today's price is expected to correct on reduced positions. The strategy is to look for low - buying opportunities after the correction ends on the hourly level [7]. (3) Styrene - Logic: Port inventory has continued to decline, but the year - on - year pressure is still relatively large. With a medium - term bearish view, the short - term rebound is driven by the news of the NDRC's emphasis on controlling high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects [10]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level trend shows a short - term oscillation, and today's intraday trend is oscillatory. The hourly - level structure has weakened, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 6325 - 6690. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [10]. (4) Rubber - Logic: There are no major short - term contradictions in the rubber market. The Thailand - Cambodia conflict has limited impact on rubber supply. The supply - demand side lacks major contradictions, and the market should be treated with an oscillatory view [15]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level trend shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level trend is a short - term oscillation. Today's intraday trend is oscillatory, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [15]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The core logic of synthetic rubber is guided by its raw material, butadiene. The inventory of butadiene has decreased significantly, and its supply - demand situation has improved in the short term. The short - term strengthening of butadiene may drive synthetic rubber to have an hourly - level upward trend [20]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level trend shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level trend is a short - term increase. Today's price corrected on reduced positions, and the short - term lower support is around 10760. The hourly - level strategy is to hold long positions, with the take - profit reference at around 10750 [20]. (6) PX - Logic: There are no new production capacity plans for PX in the next six months, and there are multiple device maintenance plans in the second quarter of next year. The medium - term supply pressure is not large. The short - term demand is expected to weaken, but the overall supply - demand is still balanced. Pay attention to the geopolitical impact on the cost - end crude oil and the possible short - term upward movement driven by the NDRC's policy [23]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level trend shows a short - term increase. Today's price increased on increased positions, continuing the short - term upward trend. The hourly - level standard support is around 6700. The hourly - level strategy is to hold long positions, with the stop - loss reference at around 6700 [23]. (7) PTA - Logic: PTA is under pressure due to seasonal decline in polyester demand and short - term inventory accumulation. However, the high profit of upstream PX means that the supply of PTA is not expected to decline significantly, and it mainly follows the cost of PX in the short term [27]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level trend shows a short - term increase. Today's price increased on increased positions, continuing the short - term upward trend. The hourly - level support is around 4655. The hourly - level strategy is to hold long positions, with the stop - loss reference at around 4655 [27]. (8) PP - Logic: The fundamental situation of PP - plastics remains loose, but the oversold market and the news of the NDRC's policy have driven a short - term rebound [28]. - Technical analysis: The short - term hourly - level decline may have ended. Today's intraday trend is oscillatory. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see, and 15 - minute long positions can be held, with the stop - loss reference at around 6230 [28]. (9) Methanol - Logic: The port inventory has flowed to the inland, showing continuous inventory decline, but the downstream MTO maintenance has led to a weak expectation. Affected by the NDRC's policy, the methanol market may rebound in the short term [31]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level trend shows a medium - term decline and a short - term increase. Today's price increased on reduced positions, and the short - term lower support is around 2120. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see, and first look for low - buying opportunities after the correction around 2150 on the 15 - minute cycle [31]. (10) PVC - Logic: The supply - demand situation of PVC is characterized by high supply, weak demand, and high inventory, but its current valuation is low. Affected by the NDRC's policy, the market may rebound in the short term [35]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level trend shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level trend is a short - term increase. Today's price continued to rise, and the short - term lower support is around 4680. The hourly - level strategy is to hold long positions, with the take - profit reference at around 4630 [35]. (11) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The losses of ethylene glycol plants have expanded, and the maintenance plans have increased, which is expected to reduce the domestic supply pressure. However, the port inventory is still accumulating, putting pressure on the market. Affected by the NDRC's policy, the market may rebound in the short term [39]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level trend shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level trend is a short - term decline. Today's intraday trend is oscillatory, and the short - term upper pressure is still around 3815 (05 contract). The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [39]. (12) Plastic - Logic: The fundamental situation of PP - plastics remains loose, but the oversold market and the news of the NDRC's policy have driven a short - term rebound [41]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level trend shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level trend is a short - term decline. Today's intraday trend is oscillatory, and the short - term upper pressure is still around 6550. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [41]. (13) Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory situation of soda ash continues, and the inventory decline rate has slowed down recently. The short - term inventory pressure has improved, but the medium - term fundamentals have not reversed. Affected by the NDRC's policy, the market may rebound in the short term, and the remaining short positions established in August can be closed for profit [43]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level trend shows a short - term increase. Today's price increased on reduced positions, and the short - term lower support is around 1155. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [43]. (14) Caustic Soda - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory situation of caustic soda remains, and the demand is weak in the traditional off - season. There is no sign of a reversal in the supply - demand situation, but there is no more space for short selling in the market. Affected by the NDRC's policy, the market may rebound in the short term [47]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level trend shows a short - term increase. Today's price increased on reduced positions and broke through the upper short - term pressure of 2180, with the short - term lower support at around 2135. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [47].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Fed's rate cut and potential bond - buying, along with China's central economic work conference's loose monetary signals, create a warm sentiment in the market despite geopolitical disturbances. For copper, short - term price may rise but consumption may limit the upward trend. For aluminum, with inventory reduction and supply issues, the price is likely to rebound. For lead, low domestic inventory of deliverable products makes the price strong. For zinc, short - term supply reduction and positive market atmosphere may lead to a stronger price. For tin, supply disruptions may drive the price up after macro - risk release. For nickel, short - term price may turn to a volatile state. For lithium carbonate, due to supply - demand uncertainties, it's advisable to wait and see. For alumina, near - cost prices may lead to production cuts, and it's better to observe. For stainless steel, high inventory is a problem, and supply control may bring a turnaround. For cast aluminum alloy, the price may fluctuate within a range [4][5][6][7][10][12][14][16][20][23][26][29] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: After the Fed's rate cut, the US dollar index is weak, and China's central economic work conference raises loose expectations. LME copper 3M rose 2.37% to $11,833/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 94,080 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 875 tons to 165,850 tons. Domestic social and bonded - area inventories increased, and the spot premium in Shanghai decreased. The import loss was about 1,100 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread narrowed [4] - **Strategy**: Short - term price may still rise, but the weakening consumption may make the upward movement less smooth. The reference range for SHFE copper is 92,500 - 94,600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $11,600 - 11,950/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The central economic work conference's policy signals made non - ferrous metals stronger. LME aluminum rose 1.14% to $2,895/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 22,175 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum's weighted contract positions slightly decreased, and the futures warehouse receipts increased. Domestic aluminum ingot and billet inventories decreased, and the market transaction was average. The LME aluminum inventory decreased, and the cash/3M remained at a discount [6] - **Strategy**: With the domestic inventory decline, high US spot premium, and low LME inventory, along with supply disruptions and stable downstream production, the aluminum price is likely to rebound. The reference range for SHFE aluminum is 22,000 - 22,400 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,850 - 2,920/ton [7] Lead - **Market Information**: On Thursday, SHFE lead index rose 0.21% to 17,157 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $1,989/ton. The refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory increased slightly by 0.13 tons to 2.29 tons [9] - **Strategy**: The lead ore port inventory decreased, and factory inventory increased. Both primary and secondary lead production rates are high, and downstream battery production also increased. With low domestic deliverable inventory, the lead price shows a strong trend in the short - term [10] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Thursday, SHFE zinc index fell 0.39% to 23,004 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $3,087.5/ton. The zinc social inventory decreased by 0.78 tons to 12.82 tons. The LME zinc inventory slowly increased, and the 3 - 15 spread was still high [11] - **Strategy**: Zinc ore and zinc ingot supply have decreased. With the positive market atmosphere in the non - ferrous sector, the zinc price may follow copper and aluminum to rise in the short - term after breaking through the pressure level [12] Tin - **Market Information**: On December 11, 2025, SHFE tin fell 0.63% to 320,600 yuan/ton. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 127 tons. Although the supply shortage has slightly eased, conflicts in Congo (DRC) and Nigeria still cause concerns. The traditional demand is weak, but emerging sectors provide support. The high price makes the spot trading cold [13] - **Strategy**: In the short - term, supply disruptions are the key factors for the price. After the macro - risk is released, the tin price may strengthen. It's advisable to wait and see, and the reference range for domestic contracts is 300,000 - 330,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $39,000 - 42,000/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: On Thursday, SHFE nickel fell 0.65% to 115,400 yuan/ton. The spot premiums of different brands were stable, and the nickel ore price was also stable. The nickel iron price rebounded [15] - **Strategy**: Although there is still a large surplus pressure, the short - term price may turn to a volatile state with the stable nickel iron price and warm macro - atmosphere. It's advisable to wait and see, and the reference range for SHFE nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $13,500 - 15,500/ton [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index rose 2.61%, and the LC2605 contract rose 3.02% [19] - **Strategy**: The supply - demand situation has not changed, and the inventory decline has narrowed slightly. There are uncertainties in supply release and demand. With high positions, the price may fluctuate greatly. It's advisable to wait and see, and the reference range for the LC2605 contract is 95,800 - 103,000 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: On December 11, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.28% to 2,534 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price decreased, and the overseas price also dropped. The futures inventory increased [22] - **Strategy**: After the rainy season, the ore shipment is recovering, and the ore price may decline. The alumina production capacity is still in surplus, but with the price close to the cost line, production cuts may increase. It's advisable to wait and see, and the reference range for the domestic contract AO2601 is 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton [23] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the stainless - steel contract fell 0.44% to 12,500 yuan/ton. The spot prices in some regions changed slightly, and the raw material prices were mostly stable. The social inventory decreased [25] - **Strategy**: High inventory is still a problem. If the supply is effectively controlled and downstream restocking demand is released, the market may turn around [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The main AD2602 contract rose 0.17% to 20,945 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions increased, and the inventory decreased [28] - **Strategy**: The cost is firm, and supply disruptions support the price, but the fluctuating demand and delivery pressure limit the upward movement. The price may fluctuate within a range [29]

五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属日报 2025-12-10 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 美联储议息会议前美元指数反弹，国内权益市场走弱，铜价回调，昨日伦铜 3M 合约收跌 1.76%至 11470 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 91020 元/吨。LME 铜库存增加 1125 至 165675 吨，注销仓单比例 下滑，Cash/3M 升贴水下滑。国内日度仓单减少至 3.0 万吨，上海地区现货升水期货下滑至 95 元/ 吨，持货商出货意愿强，基差报价继续下调。广东地区库存增加，现货升水期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to remain high in the short - term, supported by the expected reduction in production due to tight mining supply and the tightening of spot supply. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with domestic aluminum ingot inventory declining, high US spot aluminum premiums, and continued reduction in LME aluminum ingot inventory. Lead prices are expected to run strongly in the short - term due to low domestic delivery product inventory. Zinc prices are expected to follow copper and aluminum to run strongly in the short - term, but the medium - term supply surplus cycle remains unchanged. Tin prices are likely to rise in the short - term due to supply disruptions. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Lithium carbonate prices are likely to have large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see. Alumina prices are recommended to be observed in the short - term. Stainless steel prices depend on the actual implementation of steel mill production cuts. Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to follow aluminum prices [4][6][8][10][12][15][18][21][24][27] Summary by Metal Copper Market Information - The domestic equity market was strong, the US dollar index was stable, and the copper price rose and then fell. LME copper 3M contract rose slightly by 0.09% to $11,675/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 92,400 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 2000 to 164,550 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and bonded area inventory both increased [3] Strategy Viewpoint - The Fed's interest - rate meeting is approaching, and it is likely to continue the rate - cut rhythm. The Chinese Politburo meeting released a relatively loose policy signal. The copper price is expected to remain high in the short - term, and the reference operating range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 91,500 - 93,500 yuan/ton; the reference operating range for LME copper 3M is $11,500 - 11,850/ton [4] Aluminum Market Information - The domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased slightly, and the aluminum price rose and then fell. LME aluminum closed down 0.48% to $2,886/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 22,120 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 0.3 to 725,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.1 to 68,000 tons [5] Strategy Viewpoint - The domestic aluminum ingot inventory is decreasing, the US spot aluminum premium is high, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory continues to decrease. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The reference operating range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21,900 - 22,400 yuan/ton; the reference operating range for LME aluminum 3M is $2,850 - 2,910/ton [6] Lead Market Information - The Shanghai lead index rose 0.23% to 17,338 yuan/ton on Monday. LME lead 3S fell $6 to $2,011.5/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 20,400 tons [7] Strategy Viewpoint - The port inventory of lead ore decreased marginally, and the factory inventory increased normally. The production rates of primary lead and recycled lead are rising, and the production rate of downstream battery enterprises is also rising. The lead price is expected to run strongly in the short - term [8] Zinc Market Information - The Shanghai zinc index fell 0.05% to 23,300 yuan/ton on Monday. LME zinc 3S rose $8 to $3,124.5/ton. The zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 4,300 tons to 136,000 tons [9] Strategy Viewpoint - The visible inventory of zinc ore decreased marginally, and the zinc concentrate TC declined again. In the medium - term, the supply surplus cycle of the zinc industry remains unchanged, and the upside space is limited. In the short - term, the zinc price is expected to follow copper and aluminum to run strongly [10] Tin Market Information - On December 8, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 319,200 yuan/ton, up 0.54% from the previous day. The supply of tin concentrate imports increased significantly in October, but the conflict in the DRC and the possible suspension of mining in Nigeria may affect the supply [11] Strategy Viewpoint - Although the current demand in the tin market is weak, the supply disruption is the decisive factor for the short - term price. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 340,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is $40,000 - 44,000/ton [12] Nickel Market Information - The nickel price fluctuated narrowly on Monday. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 1,178,030 yuan/ton, up 0.20% from the previous day. The spot premiums of various brands were stable [14] Strategy Viewpoint - The nickel surplus pressure is still large, but the nickel price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the Shanghai nickel price is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for the LME nickel 3M contract is $13,500 - 15,500/ton [15] Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 90,969 yuan, up 0.33%. The LC2605 contract closed at 94,840 yuan, up 2.91% [17] Strategy Viewpoint - Due to the mining dispute in Nigeria and the repair of the risk appetite in the equity market, the lithium carbonate price rose strongly. The trend may not last, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the LC2605 contract is 92,500 - 97,500 yuan/ton [18] Alumina Market Information - On December 8, 2025, the alumina index rose 1.11% to 2,636 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price fell 15 yuan/ton to 2,725 yuan/ton [20] Strategy Viewpoint - After the rainy season, the ore shipment will gradually resume, and the ore price is expected to decline. The alumina smelting capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,450 - 2,700 yuan/ton [21] Stainless Steel Market Information - The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,510 yuan/ton on Monday, up 0.08%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets increased. The social inventory decreased to 1.0803 million tons [23] Strategy Viewpoint - Although the sales improved in November, the high inventory pressure is still significant. The focus should be on the actual implementation of steel mill production cuts [24] Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The cast aluminum alloy price fell and then rebounded. The main AD2602 contract closed down 0.26% to 21,135 yuan/ton. The domestic three - place inventory decreased by 30 tons to 49,200 tons [26] Strategy Viewpoint - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively firm, and the supply is affected by policies. The price is expected to follow the aluminum price to fluctuate [27]