1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic manufacturing industry's prosperity has rebounded to the expansion range, providing some support for the market, and Chinese stock indices are relatively resistant to declines compared to other markets. However, the current market trading focus remains on geopolitical factors, fluctuating with changes in event expectations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Macro Aspect**: In March, with the acceleration of resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival, both production and demand expanded simultaneously. China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI output indices all returned to the expansion range, reaching 50.4%, 50.1%, and 50.5% respectively, up 1.4, 0.6, and 1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - **Geopolitical Aspect**: Trump stated that he is willing to end military operations against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, believing that the war with Iran is likely to end soon. Iran's Foreign Minister Araqchi said that the current situation involves information exchange through direct channels or "regional friends", and Iran still receives information from US representative Witkoff, but this does not mean negotiations have started, and currently Iran is not in negotiations with any specific party [1] - **Index Adjustment**: In the spot market, the three major A - share indices adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.8% to close at 3891.86 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.7%. Most sector indices declined, with only household appliances, banking, and food and beverage industries rising. Coal, power equipment, electronics, and basic chemical industries led the decline. The daily market turnover was 2 trillion yuan. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee held its first - quarter regular meeting to study the main ideas of monetary policy for the next stage, suggesting to give play to the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, comprehensively use various tools, strengthen monetary policy regulation, and grasp the intensity, rhythm, and timing of policy implementation. Overseas, the three major US stock indices all closed higher, with the Nasdaq rising 3.83% to 21590.63 points [2] - **Basis Recovery**: In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures all recovered. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, and IC increased simultaneously [2] 3.2 Strategy - The recovery of domestic manufacturing prosperity to the expansion range provides support for the market, and Chinese stock indices show relative resistance to declines compared to other markets. However, the current market trading focus is still on geopolitical factors, fluctuating with changes in event expectations [3] 3.3 Charts 3.3.1 Macro - economic Charts - Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][8][10] 3.3.2 Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Domestic Main Stock Index Daily Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3891.86, down 0.80%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13478.06, down 1.81%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3184.95, down 2.70%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4450.05, down 0.93%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2826.12, down 0.25%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 7617.33, down 1.76%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7619.85, down 1.91% [13] - Also include charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [14] 3.3.3 Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of IF was 97664, an increase of 2925; the open interest was 257846, an increase of 4198. The trading volume of IH was 47813, an increase of 1832; the open interest was 101567, an increase of 55. The trading volume of IC was 166503, an increase of 6990; the open interest was 273460, an increase of 11361. The trading volume of IM was 233473, a decrease of 3452; the open interest was 393494, an increase of 6672 [15] - **Basis**: For IF, the basis of the current - month contract was - 16.25, an increase of 3.30; the basis of the next - month contract was - 36.65, an increase of 2.30; the basis of the current - quarter contract was - 74.25, an increase of 3.70; the basis of the next - quarter contract was - 156.65, an increase of 5.10. For IH, the basis of the current - month contract was - 1.72, an increase of 2.49; the basis of the next - month contract was - 4.72, an increase of 2.29; the basis of the current - quarter contract was - 22.12, a decrease of 1.31; the basis of the next - quarter contract was - 61.92, an increase of 0.49. For IC, the basis of the current - month contract was - 41.73, an increase of 5.19; the basis of the next - month contract was - 90.93, an increase of 8.19; the basis of the current - quarter contract was - 192.33, an increase of 0.79; the basis of the next - quarter contract was - 361.93, an increase of 4.59. For IM, the basis of the current - month contract was - 46.25, an increase of 25.88; the basis of the next - month contract was - 121.85, an increase of 22.28; the basis of the current - quarter contract was - 240.45, an increase of 18.08; the basis of the next - quarter contract was - 459.85, an increase of 25.48 [37][39] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spread data of different contracts (next - month minus current - month, next - quarter minus current - month, etc.) are provided, including the current values and changes [46][47]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The LPG market is currently trading around geopolitical factors, and the repeated sentiment amplifies the market volatility. Fundamentally, on the supply side, due to pre - holiday inventory clearance by refineries, the inventory is low, and it is expected that the external supply will not increase significantly. On the demand side, there is a certain restocking demand and the possibility of increasing production loads after the holiday, so the demand is expected to increase slightly. Driven by geopolitical factors, the domestic LPG market is expected to show a strong and volatile trend [7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data - **Domestic Futures**: The PG2602 contract price was 4510 yuan/ton on February 25, 2026, down 72 yuan from the previous day. The main contract position increased by 1926 to 82176, and the warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 6679 [2]. - **Domestic Spot**: In the domestic spot market, the price of South China refinery gas increased by 10 yuan/ton to 4770 yuan/ton, while other regions' prices remained mostly stable. The price of East China imported gas decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 5001 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis**: The basis increased by 72 yuan to 238 yuan [2]. - **External Market Prices**: Most external market prices remained stable, with BRENT crude oil rising 0.2 dollars to 71 dollars/barrel, and MB C3 M1 falling 0.013 dollars to 0.6 dollars [2]. - **Disk Profits**: The import profit FEI decreased by 62.1 yuan to - 129.4 yuan, and the PDH FEI decreased by 14.3 yuan to - 754.5 yuan [2]. - **Ratios**: The FEI/BRENT ratio decreased by 0.02 to 8.3, and the FEI/MOPJ ratio remained unchanged at - 17.4 [2]. 2. Crude Oil and Natural Gas Market - Israel announced a tender for offshore natural gas exploration. Peru's oil company reported a natural gas supply emergency in the south - western block. Venezuela will expand oil exports to India. The resumption date of the "Friendship" oil pipeline in Slovakia has been postponed to February 26. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation is in talks with companies such as Blackstone Group about a pipeline project worth up to 7 billion dollars [3]. 3. Spot Overview - **Shandong Region**: The estimated price of civil gas in Shandong was 4500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The market atmosphere was mixed, but refinery inventory pressure was controllable. The ether - post - C4 market was mostly stable, with sporadic minor adjustments. The market is expected to remain stable in the short term [5]. - **East China Region**: The mainstream transaction price of civil gas in East China was 4424 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The market was mostly stable, with demand slowly increasing. Refineries aimed to reduce inventory, and prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [5]. - **South China Region**: The average transaction price of domestic gas in South China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 4770 yuan/ton, and the average price of imported gas remained stable at 4830 yuan/ton. The market was mostly stable, with only individual low - price increases. The supply - demand fundamentals were loose, and prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, awaiting the guidance of the CP price [5]. - **North China Region**: The benchmark price of civil gas in North China increased by 29 yuan/ton to 4263 yuan/ton. Some low - price areas saw price increases, and the downstream market was active, with no obvious production - sales pressure [6].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: February 11, 2026 [1] - Researcher: Zhao Ruochen [4] - Researcher's futures practice certificate number: F03151390 [4] - Researcher's investment consulting practice certificate number: Z0023496 [4] Group 2: Daily Data Domestic Futures - PG2602 price on February 11, 2026: 4262, up 11 from the previous day [2] - Main contract position on February 11, 2026: 25613, down 3707 from the previous day [2] - Warehouse receipt quantity on February 11, 2026: 6762, unchanged from the previous day [2] Domestic Spot - South China refinery gas price on February 11, 2026: 4750, unchanged from the previous day [2] - South China imported gas price on February 11, 2026: 4865, unchanged from the previous day [2] - East China refinery gas price on February 11, 2026: 4475, unchanged from the previous day [2] - East China imported gas price on February 11, 2026: 5026, unchanged from the previous day [2] - Shandong refinery gas price on February 11, 2026: 4430, down 60 from the previous day [2] - Shandong etherified C4 price on February 11, 2026: 4450, unchanged from the previous day [2] Basis - Basis on February 11, 2026: 486.0, down 11 from the previous day [2] External Market Prices - BRENT price on February 11, 2026: 69.4, up 0.6 from the previous day [2] - СЬ СЗ МІ price on February 11, 2026: 535.9, unchanged from the previous day [2] - FEI C3 M1 price on February 11, 2026: 593.0, unchanged from the previous day [2] - MB C3 M1 price on February 11, 2026: 0.6, down 0.012 from the previous day [2] - MOPJ M1 price on February 11, 2026: 602.8, unchanged from the previous day [2] - NAP M1 price on February 11, 2026: 563.1, unchanged from the previous day [2] Disk Profits - Import profit FEI on February 11, 2026: -450.2, up 11.8 from the previous day [2] - PDH FEI on February 11, 2026: -867.4, up 5.9 from the previous day [2] Ratios - FEI/BRENT ratio on February 11, 2026: 8.5, down 0.07 from the previous day [2] - FEI/MOPJ ratio on February 11, 2026: -9.7, unchanged from the previous day [2] Group 3: Crude Oil and Natural Gas Market - The US government issued a general license allowing oilfield service companies to operate in Venezuela. The Trump administration is relaxing sanctions and promoting the reconstruction of Venezuela's crude oil infrastructure [3] - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with Donald Trump at the White House on Wednesday. Israel's concerns about a possible diplomatic agreement between Iran and the US are increasing [3] - Indian Bharat Petroleum Corporation and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited have purchased Venezuelan Merey crude oil, which is expected to arrive in April [3] - The Indian Coast Guard seized three oil tankers suspected of being involved in oil smuggling, the country's first tough measure against the so - called "dark fleet" [3] Group 4: Spot Situation Shandong Region - Shandong civil gas valuation on February 11, 2026: 4430 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous day. After a small increase in refinery prices yesterday, sales were average, supply gradually recovered. With the approaching Spring Festival, refinery inventories were low but the willingness to support the market was weak. Today, the mainstream prices were mostly adjusted downwards [5] - Shandong etherified C4 market was stable at high levels and did not rise at low levels. The overall trading atmosphere was average. Although the low - supply situation in the region had not been substantially alleviated, high prices suppressed the profits of deep - processing plants, causing downstream resistance. With the approaching Spring Festival, the game sentiment among manufacturers was weak. It is expected that the mainstream of the Shandong etherified C4 market will remain stable tomorrow, with some prices falling [5] East China Region - The mainstream transaction price of civil gas in East China on February 11, 2026: 4475 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Today, the East China market was generally stable, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 4150 - 4800 yuan/ton. Market transportation capacity was gradually decreasing. Refineries focused on stabilizing inventories before the festival, with a cautious attitude and limited willingness to adjust prices. It is expected that the East China market will be stable in the short term, and the local transaction center may move slightly downward [5] South China Region - The average transaction price of domestic gas in South China on February 11, 2026: 4750 yuan/ton, stable compared with yesterday. The average price of imported gas in South China: 4865 yuan/ton, stable compared with yesterday. Today, the South China market was generally stable. With the increasing festival atmosphere, downstream customers replenished stocks as needed. Affected by traffic restrictions in Guangdong, the logistics transportation efficiency further decreased. Currently, the market was mainly dominated by the festival sentiment, and there was insufficient motivation for large - scale market adjustment. It is expected that the mainstream trend will remain horizontal, and individual units may adjust flexibly according to their own situations [6] North China Region - The benchmark price of civil gas in North China on February 11, 2026: 4288 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous day. In North China, prices rose and fell today. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm was fair, and the production and sales pressure was not large [6] Group 5: Market Judgment - Currently, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is traded around geopolitical factors. The repeated emotions amplify the market fluctuations. Be vigilant against the market's "whip effect" [7] - Fundamentally, the international LPG spot supply is generally tight, and the winter demand is strong, providing support for the overseas supply - demand fundamentals. However, the domestic fundamentals are gradually becoming looser. Although the arrival volume is low, the abundant refinery off - gas and low chemical demand cause certain resistance above the market [7] - With the Iran negotiation not yet finalized, tail risks still exist. The domestic LPG market is expected to be volatile in the short term and face pressure in the medium - to - long term [7]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: February 10, 2026 [1] - Researcher: Zhao Ruochen [4] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03151390 [4] - Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0023496 [4] - Email: zhaoruochen_qh@chinastock.com.cn [4] Group 2: Crude Oil and Natural Gas Market - Adani Group is facing potential sanctions as the US seeks information after a media report alleged the company imported Iranian oil products into India [3] - Cosmo Oil's refinery in Sakai, Osaka, with a daily crude distillation capacity of 100,000 barrels, had an unplanned shutdown on February 9, and the restart time is uncertain [3] - The US government advised US - flagged vessels to stay away from Iranian waters when passing through the Strait of Hormuz due to recent harassment of a ship in the area and rising tensions between Washington and Tehran [3] Group 3: Spot Market Overview Shandong Region - The estimated price of civil LPG in Shandong is 4,490 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day. The market continued to rise slightly due to reduced external resource inflows and no inventory pressure on refineries [5] - The Shandong ether - after carbon - four market showed an upward trend, with good trading. Low supply and downstream demand supported the market, and it is expected to continue a steady and slightly rising trend tomorrow [5] East China Region - The mainstream transaction price of civil LPG in East China is 4,475 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market is stable, and it is expected to remain so in the short term as sellers' inventory is controllable and they focus on stable shipments [5] South China Region - The average transaction price of domestic LPG in South China is 4,750 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day, and the average price of imported LPG is 4,865 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan/ton decrease. The market is stable with some price drops. It is expected to be range - bound before the Spring Festival due to factors like approaching cost, weak demand, and limited transactions [5] North China Region - The benchmark price of civil LPG in North China is 4,297 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The market had local price drops, and low - price transactions were good as downstream buyers made purchases [6] Group 4: Market Outlook - LPG trading is currently influenced by geopolitical factors, with market sentiment amplifying price fluctuations. The international LPG supply is tight, and winter demand is strong, providing support. However, the domestic market is becoming more relaxed, with sufficient refinery supply and low chemical demand creating resistance [7] - With the Iran negotiation yet to be finalized, there are still tail risks. The domestic LPG market is expected to be volatile in the short term and face pressure in the long term [7]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic energy sector experienced a significant decline, with major contracts for crude oil and fuel oil hitting their daily limit down, reflecting a reversal from the previous week's substantial gains driven by geopolitical, macroeconomic, and liquidity factors [2][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest close, the SC crude oil main contract fell by 7.02% (limit down), the FU fuel oil main contract dropped by 7.01% (limit down), the LU low-sulfur fuel oil main contract decreased by 5.92%, the PG liquefied petroleum gas main contract declined by 4.55%, and the BU asphalt main contract fell by 4.87% [1][5]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The previous week's surge in the energy sector was attributed to a combination of geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic conditions, and liquidity, while the current week's decline is a result of a pullback in these factors [2][6]. - Macroeconomic developments include the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, whose policies favor interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction, potentially stabilizing the dollar and alleviating concerns over dollar credit collapse, thus reducing upward pressure on oil prices [2][6]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, had previously raised concerns about potential military conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil export route, leading to a spike in oil prices. However, recent statements from Iranian officials indicate a de-escalation of tensions and a willingness to negotiate, contributing to a decrease in geopolitical risk premium [2][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The commodity market remains in a high volatility phase, sensitive to liquidity changes, and the situation regarding Iran has not reached a definitive resolution. Caution is advised, with recommendations to maintain a light or empty position until market conditions become clearer and volatility decreases [2][6].

Supply and Demand Data - National operating rate is at 77.41%, down by 0.50% [1] - Northwest operating rate is at 88.44%, down by 1.01% [1] - Non-integrated operating rate is at 70.91%, up by 0.31% [1] - MTO operating rate is at 80.19%, down by 0.56% [1] - External procurement MTO operating rate is at 68.94%, down by 1.08% [1] - Several MTO facilities are undergoing maintenance, impacting demand [1] Inventory Changes - Port inventory increased by 0.27 thousand tons [1] - Inland inventory decreased by 1.25 thousand tons [1] Market Outlook - Methanol futures are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with weak buying interest [1] - Overall trading activity is moderate due to weak supply and demand dynamics [1] - High production levels are limiting price rebound potential, with downward pressure on future demand [1] - Key variables affecting the market include reduced import volumes from Iran and geopolitical risk premiums [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that palm oil futures have rebounded significantly, driven by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical influences, making it the leading commodity in the vegetable oil sector [1][2]. - On January 13, the main contract for palm oil futures rose by 1.39%, closing at 8778 yuan per ton, indicating a strong upward trend in prices [1]. - The rebound in palm oil prices is attributed to two main factors: improved macroeconomic sentiment leading to a rise in commodity prices and a rebound in crude oil prices influenced by geopolitical factors in the Middle East [1][2]. Group 2 - Despite the positive momentum, market analysts express caution regarding the sustainability of the price increase, noting that high palm oil inventories and a lack of strong demand may limit further price gains [2][3]. - The current high inventory levels of Malaysian palm oil, estimated at 3 million tons, are expected to suppress price increases in the near term, as the market may face slow inventory depletion [3]. - The financial attributes of palm oil make it more responsive to market sentiment, and the recent optimism in the funding environment may amplify short-term price increases [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Rubber: On Tuesday this week, the 2605 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, surging and then giving back gains, and stabilizing in a volatile manner. The intraday price center slightly moved down to around 15,975 yuan/ton. At the close, the price closed slightly up 0.00% at 15,975 yuan/ton. The premium of the May - September spread widened to 30 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices may maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern [6]. - Methanol: On Tuesday this week, the 2605 contract of domestic methanol futures showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, weakening in a volatile manner, and closing slightly lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,295 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,229 yuan/ton. At the close, it closed slightly down 0.18% at 2,263 yuan/ton. The discount of the May - September spread widened to 5 yuan/ton. There are differences between long and short positions, and methanol futures maintain a volatile and stable trend [6]. - Crude Oil: On Tuesday this week, the 2603 contract of domestic crude oil futures showed a trend of reducing volume, increasing positions, rebounding again, and closing sharply higher. The futures price rose to a maximum of 446.7 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 433.3 yuan/barrel. At the close, the price rose sharply 2.27% to 446.7 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical factors have become prominent again and overshadowed the weak supply - demand fundamentals. After a continuous decline in the previous period, short - term oil prices are expected to stabilize in a volatile manner [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics 3.1.1 Rubber - As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,500 tons, an increase of 4.48%. The general trade inventory increased by 16,900 tons to 460,300 tons, an increase of 3.80%. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an increase of 8.16% [9]. - As of January 9, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will increase in the next cycle [9]. - In December 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.7%, a year - on - year increase of 7.5 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.1 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. In December 2025, China's Logistics Industry Prosperity Index (LPI) was 52.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points, reaching the highest level of the year [10]. - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, the total sales of China's heavy - truck market reached a new high in the past four years, 1.137 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [10]. 3.1.2 Methanol - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 86.38%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.20%, a slight month - on - month increase of 2.64%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.72%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0424 million tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 8,700 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 18,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 139,200 tons compared with 1.9032 million tons in the previous year [11]. - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.05%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.65%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 7.30%, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.51%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 81.89%, a slight week - on - week increase of 4.28%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.12%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 81.65%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.33 percentage points and a slight month - on - month decrease of 1.17 percentage points [11]. - As of January 9, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 270 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month decrease of 264 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.1593 million tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 9,300 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 402,300 tons. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 422,700 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 18,600 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 49,000 tons, and a slight year - on - year increase of 80,500 tons compared with 342,200 tons in the previous year [12][13]. 3.1.3 Crude Oil - As of the week of January 2, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 412, a slight week - on - week increase of 3 and a decrease of 70 compared with the same period of the previous year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.811 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 16,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 248,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [14]. - As of the week of January 2, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 419 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 3.832 million barrels and a significant year - on - year increase of 4.414 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 22.84 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 728,000 barrels. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 413.5 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 245,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 94.7%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.1 percentage points, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points, and a slight year - on - year increase of 1.4 percentage points [14]. - As of January 6, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 57,352 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 7,239 contracts and a slight decrease of 1,419 contracts compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts, a decrease of 2.41%. As of January 6, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 120,686 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 6,220 contracts and a significant increase of 15,227 contracts compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts, an increase of 14.44% [15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,800 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 15,975 yuan/ton | - 155 yuan/ton | - 175 yuan/ton | +255 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,275 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | 2,263 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | +12 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 411.4 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | 446.7 yuan/barrel | +8.1 yuan/barrel | - 35.3 yuan/barrel | - 8.2 yuan/ton | [17] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: Includes charts of rubber basis, May - September spread, SHFE rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22] [25][27][29]. - Methanol: Includes charts of methanol basis, May - September spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][35] [37][39][41]. - Crude Oil: Includes charts of crude oil basis, SHFE crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [43][45][46] [48][50][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Methanol: Neutral to Bullish [3] - Thermal Coal: Bearish [3] - Domestic Supply: Bearish [3] - Imports: Bullish [3] - Downstream Demand: Neutral [3] - Upstream Profits: Bullish [3] - MTO Profits: Neutral [3] - Inventory: Bearish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term methanol price has rebounded significantly. On one hand, the shutdown of Iranian plants may lead to a reduction in imports. On the other hand, geopolitical factors have raised concerns about the return of Iranian plants, and the recent stabilization and rebound of olefin prices have provided momentum for methanol's rebound. In the short term, methanol is expected to be volatile and bullish, with a preference for long positions on pullbacks and positive spreads in calendar spreads [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply 3.1.1 Domestic Supply - As of the week ending January 1st, the national methanol plant operating rate was 77.7%, with coal - based methanol at 85.9%, coke oven gas - based at 60.1%, and natural gas - based at 34.1% [9]. - There are currently several domestic plants under maintenance. In late December, Inner Mongolia Heima and Zhongyuan Dahua were newly added to the list of maintenance plants. Attention should be paid to the restart time of natural gas - based methanol plants in China [12][15]. 3.1.2 Imports - Most Iranian plants are shut down. Since late December, Iranian shipments have decreased, and the volume in January has dropped significantly. It is expected that the reduction in imports will gradually materialize. However, recent US actions against Iran have raised concerns about the return of supply [17][18]. 3.2 Raw Material Prices - Coal prices have stabilized after a decline. Due to the increase in heating demand in the north, the daily consumption of domestic coal has rebounded significantly. In the short term, coal prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [24]. 3.3 Profits 3.3.1 Upstream Profits - The profit of coal - based methanol has rebounded slightly but remains low. The profit of natural gas - based methanol remains in the red, and the profit of coke oven gas - based methanol fluctuates within a narrow range. As of January 5th, the profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia was - 214 yuan/ton, that of natural gas - based methanol in the southwest was - 200 yuan/ton, and that of coke oven gas - based methanol in Hebei was 95 yuan/ton [32]. 3.3.2 MTO Profits - MTO profits have declined slightly recently. The MTO operating rate has fluctuated within a narrow range. There are market rumors that some plants may reduce their loads due to low profits. Attention should be paid to the stability of operations under the background of continuous low profits [42]. 3.4 Downstream Demand 3.4.1 Traditional Downstream - The operating rate of traditional downstream industries has rebounded. The operating rates of acetic acid and MTBE have increased, while the operating rate of formaldehyde has decreased slightly. The profits of traditional downstream plants have remained stable at a low level recently and are relatively better compared to the same period last year. Traditional downstream enterprises' procurement is average as it is currently the off - season for traditional demand [51][56]. 3.4.2 Olefin Demand - Olefin enterprises have increased their procurement due to year - end inventory replenishment. The operation of MTO plants has not changed much, but there are rumors that some MTO plants may carry out maintenance and reduce loads due to low profits [44][56]. 3.5 Inventory - Port inventory: Last week, the port inventory was 140,000 tons, and the port's tradable inventory was 732,000 tons. Recently, due to slow unloading at the port, the inventory has been decreasing, but there are many floating storage positions at sea. It is expected that the unloading volume will increase this week, and the port will start to accumulate inventory again [77]. - Inland inventory: The inland inventory has remained at a low level, but with the recent restart of maintenance plants and the impact of snow and rain on transportation in the north, the inland inventory has started to accumulate [77]. - MTO sample enterprises' inventory: The inventory of MTO sample enterprises is at a high level but is decreasing. After the recent price rebound, the willingness to replenish inventory has declined. The raw material inventory of traditional downstream enterprises has not changed much [82]. 3.6 Price Spreads - Basis: The basis of the main contract in East China has fluctuated within a narrow range recently. The rebound of futures prices has slightly weakened the port basis, but the absolute price has followed the increase. In the short term, as the port inventory continues to decrease, the basis is expected to strengthen gradually [90]. - Calendar Spreads: The 5 - 9 spread has remained relatively strong recently, mainly because the near - end still has the expectation of inventory reduction, making the near - end stronger. The 2 - 5 and 3 - 5 spreads have increased significantly. In the short term, the positive spread trend is expected to continue [90]. 3.7 Balance Sheet - The report provides the balance sheet data of methanol from April 2025 to March 2026, including total production, imports, total supply, exports, consumption, and surplus, etc. [99]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The cost of LPG is disturbed by geopolitical factors, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers; The upward and downward drivers of propylene are limited, and the spot price trend has stabilized [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **LPG Futures Prices**: PG2602 closed at 4,132 with a daily increase of 0.85%; PG2603 closed at 4,013 with a daily increase of 1.01%. PL2602 closed at 5,795 with a daily increase of 0.42%; PL2603 closed at 5,835 with a daily increase of 0.73%; PL2604 closed at 5,888 with a daily increase of 0.36% [1] - **LPG Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of PG2602 was 86,561, an increase of 13,711 from the previous day, and the open interest was 59,440, a decrease of 3,219 from the previous day. The trading volume of PG2603 was 29,368, an increase of 10,914 from the previous day, and the open interest was 57,585, an increase of 2,160 from the previous day. For PL contracts, the trading volume and open interest of each contract showed different degrees of change [1] - **LPG Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG02 contract was 488, compared with 453 the previous day; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG02 contract was 668, compared with 583 the previous day. The spreads of Shandong, East China, and South China propylene to PL03 contract also changed [1] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 75.1%, down from 76.4% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 68.0%, unchanged from the previous period; the alkylation operating rate was 37.0%, down from 38.1% [1] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4] 3. Market News - **CP Paper Goods Prices**: On January 2, 2026, the price of February CP paper goods for propane was 518 US dollars/ton, a rise of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price of butane was 509 US dollars/ton, a rise of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The price of March CP paper goods for propane was 499 US dollars/ton, a rise of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day [5] - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. have PDH device maintenance plans, with the start time ranging from 2023 to 2025 and the end time mostly undetermined [6] - **Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Factories such as Rizhao (China National Offshore Oil Corporation), Shenchi Chemical, Yunnan Petrochemical, and Sinochem Quanzhou have device maintenance plans, with different normal production volumes, loss volumes, start times, end times, and maintenance durations [6]