Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different commodities and financial products affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions. Different investment strategies are recommended for different products based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [1][2][3] Commodity Summaries Energy - **Crude Oil**: EU's 18th round of sanctions on Russia tightens price limits, but impact on supply is uncertain. In July, trade - war risks are greater than geopolitical benefits, and oil prices may turn to a volatile and pressured trend [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - low sulfur spread continues to decline. The 18th round of EU sanctions on Russia boosts FU, while LU follows crude oil, but its increase has been less than SC since mid - July [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas markets are weak, but domestic PDH demand is strong. With weak supply and demand, domestic gas may stabilize, and the market is expected to be in low - level oscillation [23] - **Urea**: Affected by policy news, the market is bullish. Production enterprises are de - stocking, and supply is sufficient. With expected growth in industrial demand and export progress, the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and bullish [24] - **Methanol**: Boosted by policy, it is bullish at night. Import arrivals increase, and ports are rapidly stocking. Some enterprises may postpone maintenance, and attention should be paid to macro - level impacts [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: The macro - sentiment is positive, but the upward drive for gold is limited. With high uncertainty before the US tariff policy deadline and a weakening dollar outlook, precious metals are in wide - range oscillation, and the gold - silver ratio has room to decline [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices continued to rise. Social inventories decreased rapidly over the weekend. Resistance at the upper integer level is strong, and the 2508 option portfolio should be held until expiration this week [3] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum followed non - ferrous metals in a strong and oscillating trend. Aluminum ingot inventories increased, and aluminum rod inventories decreased. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with resistance around 21,000 yuan [4] - **Alumina**: Overnight, it remained strong. With low warehouse receipts and high industry operating rates, after a sharp increase driven by policy expectations, there is a risk of correction [5] - **Zinc**: Driven by the "anti - involution" policy, zinc prices broke through the bottom consolidation. However, with increasing supply pressure, attention should be paid to downstream acceptance and the entry of hedging positions [7] - **Lead**: Primary lead smelters are reducing production, and the cost support is strong. In the context of weak supply and demand, it is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded significantly. With weakening upstream price support and high overall inventory, it is in the middle - late stage of the rebound, and short - selling opportunities should be awaited [9] - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices oscillated at a high level. With a decrease in imports from Congo and an increase from Myanmar, it is recommended to hold or increase short positions in far - month contracts [10] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price oscillated and rose. With increasing total inventory and a rebound in Australian ore prices, the upward space is limited, and short - sellers should manage their positions [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by an accident in the organic silicon supply, prices rose significantly. With increasing demand and limited supply, it is expected to oscillate and strengthen [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price strengthened. With cost transfer and limited terminal demand acceptance, short - term observation is recommended [13] Ferrous Metals - **Steel Products** - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - trading steel prices oscillated narrowly. Rebar demand declined, and hot - rolled coil demand was resilient. With low inventory and positive market sentiment, the market is expected to remain strong [14] - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures price oscillated. With increasing global shipments and high iron - making production, it is expected to be strong in the short term [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Prices continued to rise. With sufficient carbon supply and high iron - making production, they are expected to follow steel prices and remain strong in the short term [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon prices adjusted slightly after a high opening. With decreasing inventory and increasing demand expectations, it follows rebar prices. Ferrosilicon prices opened high, with overall good demand and a slight increase in supply, also following rebar prices [18][19] Chemicals - **Pure Benzene**: Night - trading prices oscillated. With a slight increase in domestic production and a decrease in port inventory, it is recommended to operate in monthly spreads, with a positive spread strategy in the short - to - medium term and a negative spread in the fourth quarter [26] - **Styrene**: Driven by macro - news, the trading sentiment improved. With expected increases in both supply and demand and continued inventory accumulation, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve in the short term [27] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: Driven by the macro - environment, the market sentiment improved slightly, but the fundamentals are weak. In the consumption off - season, downstream procurement is cautious, and there is pressure to destock [27] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: Affected by the policy of eliminating backward production capacity, PVC showed a strong trend. Caustic soda was also strong under macro - influence. Attention should be paid to the implementation of capacity - elimination policies [28] - **PX & PTA**: Night - trading prices oscillated. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and demand dragged down PX. The processing margin of PTA has room for repair [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: With limited policy impact and weak downstream demand, it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy in the short term, paying attention to the previous high - point pressure [30] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: They followed PTA and closed with a doji. Short - fiber is expected to be long - positioned in the medium term, while bottle - grade chip has limited profit - repair drivers due to over - capacity [31] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: US soybean优良率decreased slightly, and with uncertainties in trade and weather, soybean meal is expected to oscillate before the situation becomes clear [35] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Affected by weather, policy, and supply - demand factors, a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended, with short - term attention to weather and policy guidance [36] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: With potential changes in import trade and seasonal demand, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - **Corn**: US corn auction results were poor, and Dalian corn is expected to oscillate at the bottom [39] - **Livestock and Poultry** - **Hogs**: Affected by policies, the futures price rose significantly. However, with sufficient future supply, industrial players can participate in short - hedging at high prices [40] - **Eggs**: Small - egg prices decreased, while large - egg prices increased. The spot price is in a seasonal rebound, and the futures market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [41] - **Others** - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and Chinese cotton prices corrected. With tight supply and potential short - squeeze, it is recommended to wait and see [42] - **Sugar**: US sugar prices oscillated, and domestic sugar sales are fast with low inventory. Considering weather and production uncertainties, sugar prices are expected to oscillate [43] - **Apples**: Futures prices oscillated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and attention should be paid to price changes and new - season yield estimates [44] - **Wood**: Futures prices rebounded. With low - level spot prices, low port arrivals, and inventory, but weak domestic demand, it is recommended to wait and see [45] - **Pulp**: Prices continued to rise. With high port inventory and weak demand, it is recommended to wait and see or buy lightly at low prices [46] Financial Products Summaries Stock Index - The stock market opened higher and continued to rise. The futures index contracts all closed up, with IC leading the gain. The market risk preference is expected to be oscillating and strong in the short term, and technology - growth stocks are recommended for additional allocation [47] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures closed with oscillation. The central bank's policy may inject implicit liquidity, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: No rating provided [1] - Asphalt: ★☆★, representing a bias towards an upward trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Viewpoints - International crude oil prices may turn into a volatile and pressured state in July, but there is still a possibility of rising again in August. Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures are weak, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is declining. Asphalt prices are supported by low inventories, and the LPG market is in a weak state with a downward - trending disk [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the SG08 contract falling 0.12% intraday. Last week, US EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 3.859 million barrels, but the unexpected increase in refined oil inventories raised demand concerns. Since May, oil prices have been supported by peak - season procurement expectations, but recently, the spot premium and monthly spread of crude oil have not strengthened further. In July, the negative impact of the trade war on oil prices is greater than the positive impact of geopolitical factors. In August, if the European diesel contradiction persists, the market may rise again [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel - related futures are all weak, with LU falling more deeply. The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils has started to decline since mid - July. Under the OPEC+ production - increase path, there is an expectation of increased supply of high - sulfur heavy resources globally. The impact of sanctions on major high - sulfur fuel oil production areas such as Russia and Iran is relatively limited in the short term. The actual incremental effect of the previous pilot project of increasing the deduction ratio of fuel oil consumption tax in China is limited, and demand lacks drivers. FU cracking is expected to maintain a downward trend. The unilateral trend of LU mainly follows crude oil [2] Asphalt - Social inventories have slightly increased, while factory inventories have significantly decreased month - on - month, mainly driven by accelerated inventory reduction in East China. The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has slightly increased month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year increase has decreased by 1 percentage point compared to the end of June. Overall, the resilience of asphalt supply increase remains to be observed, demand is still weak but there is a repair expectation, and low inventories still support prices. Today, crude oil has slightly declined, while BU has slightly increased, and cracking has also strengthened [3] LPG - The production - increase pressure in the Middle East persists. Although chemical procurement in the Far East has increased, overseas prices continue to be weak and volatile. Recently, import costs have continued to decline, but the weak prices of terminal products have kept PDH gross profit stable. PDH has continued to add maintenance, and the domestic supply and demand are both weak recently, with the domestic gas price facing downward pressure at the top. Crude oil has declined, and the off - season pattern in summer remains unchanged, with the disk trend being weak and volatile [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is cautiously bullish, and for silver is also cautiously bullish. The rating for arbitrage and options is to postpone [8]. Core Viewpoints - The Fed officials have differences on the interest - rate path, and geopolitical factors are still changeable. Gold and silver prices are affected by Fed policies and geopolitical situations. Gold prices are in a volatile pattern, and silver prices have strong fluctuations. The operation suggestions for gold and silver are to be cautiously bullish, while arbitrage and options operations should be postponed [1][8]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Fed Chair Powell believes the current policy is in a favorable position and can wait to consider interest - rate adjustments. However, there are differences within the Fed. Bostic expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut later this year, while others like Hammack think there is no urgent need to cut rates. Geopolitically, Trump has complex statements about the Israel - Iran cease - fire and regime change in Iran, and there are disputes over the US strike on Iran's nuclear facilities [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On June 24, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 782.00 yuan/gram and closed at 771.86 yuan/gram, down 1.21% from the previous trading day. The volume was 248,445 lots, and the open interest was 147,344 lots. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 8,750 yuan/kilogram and closed at 8,739 yuan/kilogram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The volume was 446,808 lots, and the open interest was 341,852 lots [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On June 24, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury rate closed at 4.34%, down 0.01% from the previous trading day. The 10 - 2 - year spread was 0.55%, up 5 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 173 lots, and the short positions decreased by 614 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts increased by 50.23% to 501,680 lots. On the Ag2502 contract, the long positions were 120 lots, and the short positions increased by 89 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts decreased by 9.30% to 795,077 lots [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 955.68 tons, down 1.72 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,877.49 tons, down 73.50 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On June 24, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 0.66 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 649.13 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 88.32, down 0.86% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 92.98, down 0.30% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On June 24, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 51,470 kilograms, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 304,350 kilograms, down 30.01% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 7,282 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 66,330 kilograms [7]. Strategies - For gold, it is advisable to enter the market with a light position (10% - 15% position) at the current price and add to the position to about 30% near 730 yuan/gram, with a stop - loss at 708 yuan/gram. For silver, continue to buy on dips for hedging, and pay more attention to position control and strict stop - loss execution. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging near 8,640 yuan/kilogram for the Ag2508 contract, with a stop - loss near 8,590 yuan/kilogram [8].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-06-25 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 地缘因素弱化，原油延续弱势 | 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：由于美国总统特朗普发表评论预示伊朗和以色列冲突将结束，市场交易地缘逻辑弱化。 随后消息传出伊朗和以色列宣布正式停火。这引发投资者大幅调整预期，认为中东地缘因素对于油 价的影响不会进一步激化，后期地缘溢价会进一步回落。在地缘因素减弱的背景下，国内外原油期 货价格展开大幅回调的走势。本周二夜盘国内原油期货 2508 合约大幅下跌 9.27%至 502.3 元/桶。在 地缘因素弱化的背景下，预计本周三国内原油期货 2508 合约或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-06-25 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏多氛围弱化，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏多氛围弱化，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着地缘因素弱化，能化商品期货的共性利多边际效应递减， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-06-25 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 地缘因素弱化，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：由于美国总统特朗普发表评论预示伊朗和以色列冲突将结束，市场交易地缘逻辑弱化。 随后消息传出伊朗和以色列宣布正式停火。在地缘因素减弱的背景下，国内外原油期货价格展开大 幅回调的走势，同时国际甲醇价格也 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-06-24 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 地缘因素弱化，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：由于美国总统特朗普发表评论感谢伊朗提前发出通知，称其对美军基地的导弹袭击非常 微弱，并呼吁结束以色列与伊朗之间的冲突。根据伊朗媒体报道，伊朗军方用了美国打击伊朗同等 数量的导弹进行了对等打击，并且未 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-06-18 地缘因素令贵金属价格偏强 市场静候议息会议 市场要闻与重要数据 昨日，美国5月零售销售弱于预期，但消费者支出仍然受到稳健薪资增长的支撑。美元指数在数据公布后趋弱，但 随着市场消化数据反映的喜忧参半的情况，美元迅速扭转跌势，但贵金属价格也同样走强，这或许与近期相对复 杂的地缘因素有关。明日凌晨将会迎来美联储议息会议，目前市场普遍认为美联储并不会在此次议息会议上对利 率水平做出调整。但随着特朗普持续对美联储施压敦促其降息，甚至称要更换目前美联储主席，因此未来利率下 降的可能性仍然较大。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-06-17，沪金主力合约开于 792.68元/克，收于 785.08元/克，较前一交易日收盘 -0.91%。当日成交量为 192889手，持仓量为 168935手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 785.36 元/克，收于 787.38 元/克，较昨日午后收盘 上涨0.04%。 2025-06-17，沪银主力合约开于 8864元/千克，收于 8864元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 457021手，持仓量 409052手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 8 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - International gold prices experienced slight fluctuations, with a current price of $3375.61 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.16% [1] - The gold price opened at $3379.54 per ounce, reached a high of $3392.00, and a low of $3362.83 during the trading session [1] - Geopolitical factors contributed to a significant increase in gold prices on the previous Monday, with a daily high of $3381, indicating a potential upward trend with a focus on breaking the $3400 resistance level [3] Group 2: Japanese Economic Insights - Japan's economy is experiencing a "hot domestic and cold external" situation, with domestic demand sectors benefiting from tourism recovery and consumption upgrades, leading to a record capital expenditure of 18.8 trillion yen (approximately $130 billion) in Q1 2025 [2] - The capital expenditure saw a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, driven by strong investments in the food and real estate sectors, aligning with the government's "tourism nation" strategy [2] - The investment surge is attributed to increased profits from inbound tourists purchasing Japanese goods and rising domestic service prices, encouraging companies to invest more [2]