| | | 液化气数据汇总表 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 名称 | 2026/2/25 | 2026/2/24 | 涨跌 | | 国内期货 | PG2602 | 4510 | 4582 | -72.0 | | | 主力持仓 | 82176 | 80250 | 1926 | | | 仓单数量 | 6679 | 6679 | O | | 国内现货 | 华南炼厂气 | 4770 | 4760 | O 10 | | | 华南进口气 | 4830 | 4830 | 0 | | | 华东炼厂气 | 4424 | 4424 | 0 | | | 华东进口气 | 5001 | 2013 | -12 | | | 山东炼厂气 | 4500 | 4500 | 0 | | | 山东醚后C4 | 4380 | 4380 | 0 | | 基差 | | 238.0 | 166.0 | 72 | | 外盘价格 | BRENT | 71.0 | 70.8 | 0.2 | | | CP C3 M1 | 535.5 | 535.5 | 0.0 | | | FEI C3 M1 | 587. ...

液化气日报 2026 年 2 月 11 日 液化气日报 日度数据 | | | 液化气数据汇总表 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 名称 | 2026/2/11 | 2026/2/10 | 涨跌 | | 国内期货 | PG2602 | 4262 | 4251 | 11.0 | | | 主力持仓 | 25613 | 29320 | -3707 | | | 仓单数量 | 6762 | 6762 | 0 | | 国内现货 | 华南炼厂气 | 4750 | 4750 | O | | | 华南进口气 | 4865 | 4865 | 0 | | | 华东炼厂气 | 4475 | 4475 | O | | | 华东进口气 | 5026 | 5026 | O | | | 山东炼厂气 | 4430 | 4490 | -60 | | | 山东醚后C4 | 4450 | 4450 | O | | 基差 | | 486.0 | 497.0 | -11 | | 外盘价格 | BRENT | 69.4 | 68.8 | 0.6 | | | СЬ СЗ МІ | 535.9 | 535 ...

研究所 液化气研发报告 液化气日报 2026 年 2 月 10 日 液化气日报 日度数据 原油天然气市场 1. 阿达尼集团表示，美国向该公司寻求信息，因为一份媒体报道指称该公司将伊朗石油产品 进口到印度，引起了对潜在制裁的担忧。2. 日本炼油商科斯莫石油公司发言人表示，该公司 位于大阪的坂井炼油厂日产量 10 万桶的原油蒸馏装置于 2 月 9 日发生计划外停机，恢复运 转时间尚不确定。3. 美国政府在一份航行通告中建议，美籍船舶在通过霍尔木兹海峡时应尽 可能远离伊朗水域。此前一艘船舶上周在该海域遭遇骚扰，华盛顿与德黑兰之间的紧张局势 持续升温。 研究员： 赵若晨 期货从业证号： F03151390 投资咨询从业证号： Z0023496 ： zhaoruochen_qh @chinastock.com.cn 1 / 6 研究所 液化气研发报告 现货概况 山东地区：山东地区民用气估价 4490 元/吨，环比+20 元/吨。随着市场运力逐步下降，外 围资源流入逐步减少，对省内炼厂存较强支撑，叠加炼厂并无库存压力，今日市场延续小涨 态势。山东醚后碳四市场主流上行，整体成交氛围良好，节日影响仍在持续，区内延续低供 局面 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic energy sector experienced a significant decline, with major contracts for crude oil and fuel oil hitting their daily limit down, reflecting a reversal from the previous week's substantial gains driven by geopolitical, macroeconomic, and liquidity factors [2][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest close, the SC crude oil main contract fell by 7.02% (limit down), the FU fuel oil main contract dropped by 7.01% (limit down), the LU low-sulfur fuel oil main contract decreased by 5.92%, the PG liquefied petroleum gas main contract declined by 4.55%, and the BU asphalt main contract fell by 4.87% [1][5]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The previous week's surge in the energy sector was attributed to a combination of geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic conditions, and liquidity, while the current week's decline is a result of a pullback in these factors [2][6]. - Macroeconomic developments include the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, whose policies favor interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction, potentially stabilizing the dollar and alleviating concerns over dollar credit collapse, thus reducing upward pressure on oil prices [2][6]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, had previously raised concerns about potential military conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil export route, leading to a spike in oil prices. However, recent statements from Iranian officials indicate a de-escalation of tensions and a willingness to negotiate, contributing to a decrease in geopolitical risk premium [2][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The commodity market remains in a high volatility phase, sensitive to liquidity changes, and the situation regarding Iran has not reached a definitive resolution. Caution is advised, with recommendations to maintain a light or empty position until market conditions become clearer and volatility decreases [2][6].

【现货方面】1月27日太仓现货成交：2260-2270，基差：05-35 【供需库存数据】 库存：港口累0.27万吨，内地累库去1.25万吨 【观点】甲醇期货窄幅震荡，现货及月内按需采购，买气较弱，全天整体成交一般。甲醇市场供需双 弱，内地厂库去化，但高产量压制反弹空间，后续需求有下行压力。港口库存累库幅度偏低，后续到港 偏少，但MTO需求疲软(多套装置检修或降负),05去库幅度大幅减弱，压制价格反弹高度。当前市场两 大关键变量:一是伊朗甲醇产量低位背景下，进口货源到港量的缩减节奏，目前发运截止最新，伊朗发 运35万吨;二是地缘因素带来的风险溢价。 【策略】多单择机止盈（关注地缘变化，地缘缓和后，多单择机止盈） 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 供应：全国开工77.41%（-0.50%） ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that palm oil futures have rebounded significantly, driven by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical influences, making it the leading commodity in the vegetable oil sector [1][2]. - On January 13, the main contract for palm oil futures rose by 1.39%, closing at 8778 yuan per ton, indicating a strong upward trend in prices [1]. - The rebound in palm oil prices is attributed to two main factors: improved macroeconomic sentiment leading to a rise in commodity prices and a rebound in crude oil prices influenced by geopolitical factors in the Middle East [1][2]. Group 2 - Despite the positive momentum, market analysts express caution regarding the sustainability of the price increase, noting that high palm oil inventories and a lack of strong demand may limit further price gains [2][3]. - The current high inventory levels of Malaysian palm oil, estimated at 3 million tons, are expected to suppress price increases in the near term, as the market may face slow inventory depletion [3]. - The financial attributes of palm oil make it more responsive to market sentiment, and the recent optimism in the funding environment may amplify short-term price increases [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Rubber: On Tuesday this week, the 2605 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, surging and then giving back gains, and stabilizing in a volatile manner. The intraday price center slightly moved down to around 15,975 yuan/ton. At the close, the price closed slightly up 0.00% at 15,975 yuan/ton. The premium of the May - September spread widened to 30 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices may maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern [6]. - Methanol: On Tuesday this week, the 2605 contract of domestic methanol futures showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, weakening in a volatile manner, and closing slightly lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,295 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,229 yuan/ton. At the close, it closed slightly down 0.18% at 2,263 yuan/ton. The discount of the May - September spread widened to 5 yuan/ton. There are differences between long and short positions, and methanol futures maintain a volatile and stable trend [6]. - Crude Oil: On Tuesday this week, the 2603 contract of domestic crude oil futures showed a trend of reducing volume, increasing positions, rebounding again, and closing sharply higher. The futures price rose to a maximum of 446.7 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 433.3 yuan/barrel. At the close, the price rose sharply 2.27% to 446.7 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical factors have become prominent again and overshadowed the weak supply - demand fundamentals. After a continuous decline in the previous period, short - term oil prices are expected to stabilize in a volatile manner [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics 3.1.1 Rubber - As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,500 tons, an increase of 4.48%. The general trade inventory increased by 16,900 tons to 460,300 tons, an increase of 3.80%. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an increase of 8.16% [9]. - As of January 9, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will increase in the next cycle [9]. - In December 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.7%, a year - on - year increase of 7.5 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.1 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. In December 2025, China's Logistics Industry Prosperity Index (LPI) was 52.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points, reaching the highest level of the year [10]. - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, the total sales of China's heavy - truck market reached a new high in the past four years, 1.137 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [10]. 3.1.2 Methanol - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 86.38%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.20%, a slight month - on - month increase of 2.64%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.72%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0424 million tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 8,700 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 18,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 139,200 tons compared with 1.9032 million tons in the previous year [11]. - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.05%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.65%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 7.30%, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.51%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 81.89%, a slight week - on - week increase of 4.28%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.12%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 81.65%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.33 percentage points and a slight month - on - month decrease of 1.17 percentage points [11]. - As of January 9, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 270 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month decrease of 264 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.1593 million tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 9,300 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 402,300 tons. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 422,700 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 18,600 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 49,000 tons, and a slight year - on - year increase of 80,500 tons compared with 342,200 tons in the previous year [12][13]. 3.1.3 Crude Oil - As of the week of January 2, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 412, a slight week - on - week increase of 3 and a decrease of 70 compared with the same period of the previous year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.811 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 16,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 248,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [14]. - As of the week of January 2, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 419 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 3.832 million barrels and a significant year - on - year increase of 4.414 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 22.84 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 728,000 barrels. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 413.5 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 245,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 94.7%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.1 percentage points, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points, and a slight year - on - year increase of 1.4 percentage points [14]. - As of January 6, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 57,352 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 7,239 contracts and a slight decrease of 1,419 contracts compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts, a decrease of 2.41%. As of January 6, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 120,686 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 6,220 contracts and a significant increase of 15,227 contracts compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts, an increase of 14.44% [15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,800 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 15,975 yuan/ton | - 155 yuan/ton | - 175 yuan/ton | +255 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,275 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | 2,263 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | +12 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 411.4 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | 446.7 yuan/barrel | +8.1 yuan/barrel | - 35.3 yuan/barrel | - 8.2 yuan/ton | [17] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: Includes charts of rubber basis, May - September spread, SHFE rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22] [25][27][29]. - Methanol: Includes charts of methanol basis, May - September spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][35] [37][39][41]. - Crude Oil: Includes charts of crude oil basis, SHFE crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [43][45][46] [48][50][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Methanol: Neutral to Bullish [3] - Thermal Coal: Bearish [3] - Domestic Supply: Bearish [3] - Imports: Bullish [3] - Downstream Demand: Neutral [3] - Upstream Profits: Bullish [3] - MTO Profits: Neutral [3] - Inventory: Bearish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term methanol price has rebounded significantly. On one hand, the shutdown of Iranian plants may lead to a reduction in imports. On the other hand, geopolitical factors have raised concerns about the return of Iranian plants, and the recent stabilization and rebound of olefin prices have provided momentum for methanol's rebound. In the short term, methanol is expected to be volatile and bullish, with a preference for long positions on pullbacks and positive spreads in calendar spreads [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply 3.1.1 Domestic Supply - As of the week ending January 1st, the national methanol plant operating rate was 77.7%, with coal - based methanol at 85.9%, coke oven gas - based at 60.1%, and natural gas - based at 34.1% [9]. - There are currently several domestic plants under maintenance. In late December, Inner Mongolia Heima and Zhongyuan Dahua were newly added to the list of maintenance plants. Attention should be paid to the restart time of natural gas - based methanol plants in China [12][15]. 3.1.2 Imports - Most Iranian plants are shut down. Since late December, Iranian shipments have decreased, and the volume in January has dropped significantly. It is expected that the reduction in imports will gradually materialize. However, recent US actions against Iran have raised concerns about the return of supply [17][18]. 3.2 Raw Material Prices - Coal prices have stabilized after a decline. Due to the increase in heating demand in the north, the daily consumption of domestic coal has rebounded significantly. In the short term, coal prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [24]. 3.3 Profits 3.3.1 Upstream Profits - The profit of coal - based methanol has rebounded slightly but remains low. The profit of natural gas - based methanol remains in the red, and the profit of coke oven gas - based methanol fluctuates within a narrow range. As of January 5th, the profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia was - 214 yuan/ton, that of natural gas - based methanol in the southwest was - 200 yuan/ton, and that of coke oven gas - based methanol in Hebei was 95 yuan/ton [32]. 3.3.2 MTO Profits - MTO profits have declined slightly recently. The MTO operating rate has fluctuated within a narrow range. There are market rumors that some plants may reduce their loads due to low profits. Attention should be paid to the stability of operations under the background of continuous low profits [42]. 3.4 Downstream Demand 3.4.1 Traditional Downstream - The operating rate of traditional downstream industries has rebounded. The operating rates of acetic acid and MTBE have increased, while the operating rate of formaldehyde has decreased slightly. The profits of traditional downstream plants have remained stable at a low level recently and are relatively better compared to the same period last year. Traditional downstream enterprises' procurement is average as it is currently the off - season for traditional demand [51][56]. 3.4.2 Olefin Demand - Olefin enterprises have increased their procurement due to year - end inventory replenishment. The operation of MTO plants has not changed much, but there are rumors that some MTO plants may carry out maintenance and reduce loads due to low profits [44][56]. 3.5 Inventory - Port inventory: Last week, the port inventory was 140,000 tons, and the port's tradable inventory was 732,000 tons. Recently, due to slow unloading at the port, the inventory has been decreasing, but there are many floating storage positions at sea. It is expected that the unloading volume will increase this week, and the port will start to accumulate inventory again [77]. - Inland inventory: The inland inventory has remained at a low level, but with the recent restart of maintenance plants and the impact of snow and rain on transportation in the north, the inland inventory has started to accumulate [77]. - MTO sample enterprises' inventory: The inventory of MTO sample enterprises is at a high level but is decreasing. After the recent price rebound, the willingness to replenish inventory has declined. The raw material inventory of traditional downstream enterprises has not changed much [82]. 3.6 Price Spreads - Basis: The basis of the main contract in East China has fluctuated within a narrow range recently. The rebound of futures prices has slightly weakened the port basis, but the absolute price has followed the increase. In the short term, as the port inventory continues to decrease, the basis is expected to strengthen gradually [90]. - Calendar Spreads: The 5 - 9 spread has remained relatively strong recently, mainly because the near - end still has the expectation of inventory reduction, making the near - end stronger. The 2 - 5 and 3 - 5 spreads have increased significantly. In the short term, the positive spread trend is expected to continue [90]. 3.7 Balance Sheet - The report provides the balance sheet data of methanol from April 2025 to March 2026, including total production, imports, total supply, exports, consumption, and surplus, etc. [99]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The cost of LPG is disturbed by geopolitical factors, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers; The upward and downward drivers of propylene are limited, and the spot price trend has stabilized [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **LPG Futures Prices**: PG2602 closed at 4,132 with a daily increase of 0.85%; PG2603 closed at 4,013 with a daily increase of 1.01%. PL2602 closed at 5,795 with a daily increase of 0.42%; PL2603 closed at 5,835 with a daily increase of 0.73%; PL2604 closed at 5,888 with a daily increase of 0.36% [1] - **LPG Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of PG2602 was 86,561, an increase of 13,711 from the previous day, and the open interest was 59,440, a decrease of 3,219 from the previous day. The trading volume of PG2603 was 29,368, an increase of 10,914 from the previous day, and the open interest was 57,585, an increase of 2,160 from the previous day. For PL contracts, the trading volume and open interest of each contract showed different degrees of change [1] - **LPG Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG02 contract was 488, compared with 453 the previous day; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG02 contract was 668, compared with 583 the previous day. The spreads of Shandong, East China, and South China propylene to PL03 contract also changed [1] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 75.1%, down from 76.4% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 68.0%, unchanged from the previous period; the alkylation operating rate was 37.0%, down from 38.1% [1] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4] 3. Market News - **CP Paper Goods Prices**: On January 2, 2026, the price of February CP paper goods for propane was 518 US dollars/ton, a rise of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price of butane was 509 US dollars/ton, a rise of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The price of March CP paper goods for propane was 499 US dollars/ton, a rise of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day [5] - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. have PDH device maintenance plans, with the start time ranging from 2023 to 2025 and the end time mostly undetermined [6] - **Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Factories such as Rizhao (China National Offshore Oil Corporation), Shenchi Chemical, Yunnan Petrochemical, and Sinochem Quanzhou have device maintenance plans, with different normal production volumes, loss volumes, start times, end times, and maintenance durations [6]

Report Information - Report Name: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: January 4, 2026 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao [1] - Contact Person: Zhao Shucen [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views LPG - Geopolitical factors disrupt costs, and attention is paid to the realization of downward drivers. The market is relatively stable during holidays, with the internal PG fluctuating and consolidating. After the holiday, the high opening of the January CP official price boosts market sentiment, but the coexistence of supply return and weakening chemical demand expectations remains, and the loose pattern remains unchanged. The market price rises and then falls. In the future, the geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela during the holiday is expected to disrupt the cost-side crude oil in the short term, and the increase in the January CP will support the propane trend. However, high prices suppress buying interest, the actual import cost support is limited, and the supply pressure remains. Meanwhile, the current chemical profit is at a low level, there are many PDH maintenance plans in the first quarter, the economic efficiency of cracking propane feedstock is insufficient, and the procurement increment is limited, so the downward driver is gradually emerging. [4][5] Propylene - There is limited upward and downward driving force, and the spot price trend stabilizes. Next week, there will be a mix of start-ups and shutdowns in terms of supply, and the demand side is expected to increase. Overall, propylene lacks obvious trend guidance and is expected to remain volatile and stable in the short term. However, the high opening of CP further compresses the profit of PDH devices, and attention should be paid to the realization of the expected increase in unexpectedly shut-down devices in the first quarter. [8] Summary by Directory LPG Part Price & Spread - Domestic LPG spot prices and basis show regional differentiation in civil use trends, and import costs are relatively firm. The prices of propane in the international market show a certain degree of fluctuation, and the spot premium has significantly declined. [11] - The domestic LPG market price shows a pattern of strong performance in South China and stable performance in East China and Shandong. [15] - The regional quotes, premiums, and freight rates show that the CP official price opens high, but the premium falls. [23] - The propane price has declined month-on-month. [32] Supply - The US LPG shipment volume to Asia has increased month-on-month, while the Canadian LPG shipment volume remains relatively stable. The Middle East LPG shipment volume is tight in the spot market, and the shipments are delayed. The total LPG commodity volume in China has increased slightly, and the propane commodity volume has decreased in terms of import arrivals. [42][48][49][64][76] Demand & Inventory - In terms of chemical demand, the PDH operating rate has increased, while the MTBE operating rate has decreased. The domestic LPG refinery inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year, with limited month-on-month changes. The civil LPG refinery inventory has changed little month-on-month. The LPG terminal import inventory has significantly decreased month-on-month due to lower-than-expected arrivals. [80][82][90][99] Propylene Part Price & Spread - In the propylene industry chain, the cost-side propane first declines and then rises, while the propylene price remains stable. The prices of some downstream products of propylene have improved, and the profit of powder materials has improved. The international/US dollar price of propylene remains flat month-on-month, and the domestic price trend remains stable. [111][113][115][123] Balance Sheet - In the propylene industry chain, the PDH operating rate has increased month-on-month; the powder material operating rate has further declined, while the butanol and octanol operating rates have significantly increased. The supply and demand of propylene in the national and Shandong regions show certain changes, and the inventory has also changed accordingly. [135][138][144][150][155][157][162] Supply - The overall upstream operating rate of propylene is 75.0% (+0.9%). The refinery/main operating rate remains at 75%, and the local refinery operating rate is 56%. The ethylene cracking operating rate is 82.8% (-0.4%), and the cracking profit center has slightly improved month-on-month. The PDH capacity utilization rate is 76.4% (+1.4%), and the MTO capacity utilization rate is 87.8% (-1.7%). [167][169][179][184][189] Demand - The downstream PP capacity utilization rate is 76.9% (-2.5%), and the profit has stopped falling and slightly recovered month-on-month. The PP powder capacity utilization rate is 37.6% (+0.7%), and the spread between powder materials and propylene has continued to recover, with some devices returning. The PO capacity utilization rate is 74.1% (-2.0%), and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly further. The acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate is 80.3% (-0.3%), and the profit has increased month-on-month. The acrylic acid capacity utilization rate is 79.9% (+0.4%), and the profit has increased month-on-month. The n-butanol capacity utilization rate is 79.9% (+2.1%), and the profit has increased significantly month-on-month. The octanol capacity utilization rate is 85.0% (+3.0%), and the profit has increased month-on-month. The phenol-ketone capacity utilization rate is 78.5% (+2.5%), and the profit has increased slightly month-on-month. The ECH capacity utilization rate is 50.82% (+2.39%), and the price and profit have both increased month-on-month. [203][208][221][230][235][243][251][254][264][266][273] Downstream Inventory - The inventory of PP production enterprises, traders, and ports has changed slightly. The inventory of PP powder materials has also changed slightly. The inventory of acrylonitrile factories and ports remains stable, while the inventory of phenol and acetone in Jiangyin Port has decreased. [277][288][290]